The relationship between body mass index and breast cancer recurrence/progression and breast cancer-specific death

The aim of this study was to describe the nonlinear association between body mass index (BMI) and breast cancer outcomes and to determine whether BMI improves prediction of outcomes. A cohort of906 breast cancer patients diagnosed at Henry Ford Health System, Detroit (1985-1990) were studied. The median follow-up was 10 years. Multivariate logistic regression was used to model breast cancer recurrence/progression and breast cancer-specific death. Restricted cubic splines were used to model nonlinear effects. Receiver operator characteristic areas under the curves (ROC AUC) were used to evaluate prediction. BMI was nonlinearly associated with recurrence/progression and death (p= 0.0230 and 0.0101). Probability of outcomes increased with increase or decrease ofBMI away from 25. BMI splines were suggestive of improved prediction of death. The ROC AUCs for nested models with and without BMI were 0.8424 and 0.8331 (p= 0.08). I f causally associated, modifying patients BMI towards 25 may improve outcomes.

Recurrence Quantification Analysis of System Signals for Detecting Tool and Chatter in Turning

In this thesis, the applications of the recurrence quantification analysis in metal cutting operation in a lathe, with specific objective to detect tool wear and chatter, are presented.This study is based on the discovery that process dynamics in a lathe is low dimensional chaotic. It implies that the machine dynamics is controllable using principles of chaos theory. This understanding is to revolutionize the feature extraction methodologies used in condition monitoring systems as conventional linear methods or models are incapable of capturing the critical and strange behaviors associated with the metal cutting process.As sensor based approaches provide an automated and cost effective way to monitor and control, an efficient feature extraction methodology based on nonlinear time series analysis is much more demanding. The task here is more complex when the information has to be deduced solely from sensor signals since traditional methods do not address the issue of how to treat noise present in real-world processes and its non-stationarity. In an effort to get over these two issues to the maximum possible, this thesis adopts the recurrence quantification analysis methodology in the study since this feature extraction technique is found to be robust against noise and stationarity in the signals.The work consists of two different sets of experiments in a lathe; set-I and set-2. The experiment, set-I, study the influence of tool wear on the RQA variables whereas the set-2 is carried out to identify the sensitive RQA variables to machine tool chatter followed by its validation in actual cutting. To obtain the bounds of the spectrum of the significant RQA variable values, in set-i, a fresh tool and a worn tool are used for cutting. The first part of the set-2 experiments uses a stepped shaft in order to create chatter at a known location. And the second part uses a conical section having a uniform taper along the axis for creating chatter to onset at some distance from the smaller end by gradually increasing the depth of cut while keeping the spindle speed and feed rate constant.The study concludes by revealing the dependence of certain RQA variables; percent determinism, percent recurrence and entropy, to tool wear and chatter unambiguously. The performances of the results establish this methodology to be viable for detection of tool wear and chatter in metal cutting operation in a lathe. The key reason is that the dynamics of the system under study have been nonlinear and the recurrence quantification analysis can characterize them adequately.This work establishes that principles and practice of machining can be considerably benefited and advanced from using nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory.

Analysis of System Signals Based on Cross Recurrence Method for System Dynamics Characterization

Natural systems are inherently non linear. Recurrent behaviours are typical of natural systems. Recurrence is a fundamental property of non linear dynamical systems which can be exploited to characterize the system behaviour effectively. Cross recurrence based analysis of sensor signals from non linear dynamical system is presented in this thesis. The mutual dependency among relatively independent components of a system is referred as coupling. The analysis is done for a mechanically coupled system specifically designed for conducting experiment. Further, cross recurrence method is extended to the actual machining process in a lathe to characterize the chatter during turning. The result is verified by permutation entropy method. Conventional linear methods or models are incapable of capturing the critical and strange behaviours associated with the dynamical process. Hence any effective feature extraction methodologies should invariably gather information thorough nonlinear time series analysis. The sensor signals from the dynamical system normally contain noise and non stationarity. In an effort to get over these two issues to the maximum possible extent, this work adopts the cross recurrence quantification analysis (CRQA) methodology since it is found to be robust against noise and stationarity in the signals. The study reveals that the CRQA is capable of characterizing even weak coupling among system signals. It also divulges the dependence of certain CRQA variables like percent determinism, percent recurrence and entropy to chatter unambiguously. The surrogate data test shows that the results obtained by CRQA are the true properties of the temporal evolution of the dynamics and contain a degree of deterministic structure. The results are verified using permutation entropy (PE) to detect the onset of chatter from the time series. The present study ascertains that this CRP based methodology is capable of recognizing the transition from regular cutting to the chatter cutting irrespective of the machining parameters or work piece material. The results establish this methodology to be feasible for detection of chatter in metal cutting operation in a lathe.

Orthogonal polynomials and recurrence equations, operator equations and factorization

This article surveys the classical orthogonal polynomial systems of the Hahn class, which are solutions of second-order differential, difference or q-difference equations. Orthogonal families satisfy three-term recurrence equations. Example applications of an algorithm to determine whether a three-term recurrence equation has solutions in the Hahn class - implemented in the computer algebra system Maple - are given. Modifications of these families, in particular associated orthogonal systems, satisfy fourth-order operator equations. A factorization of these equations leads to a solution basis.

Solution properties of the de Branges differential recurrence equation

In this 1984 proof of the Bieberbach and Milin conjectures de Branges used a positivity result of special functions which follows from an identity about Jacobi polynomial sums thas was published by Askey and Gasper in 1976. The de Branges functions Tn/k(t) are defined as the solutions of a system of differential recurrence equations with suitably given initial values. The essential fact used in the proof of the Bieberbach and Milin conjectures is the statement Tn/k(t)<=0. In 1991 Weinstein presented another proof of the Bieberbach and Milin conjectures, also using a special function system Λn/k(t) which (by Todorov and Wilf) was realized to be directly connected with de Branges', Tn/k(t)=-kΛn/k(t), and the positivity results in both proofs Tn/k(t)<=0 are essentially the same. In this paper we study differential recurrence equations equivalent to de Branges' original ones and show that many solutions of these differential recurrence equations don't change sign so that the above inequality is not as surprising as expected. Furthermore, we present a multiparameterized hypergeometric family of solutions of the de Branges differential recurrence equations showing that solutions are not rare at all.

Femtosecond pump-probe study of the spreading and recurrence of a vibrational wave packet in Na_2

The motion of a vibrational wave packet in the bound A(^1 \summe^+_u) electronic state of the sodium dimer is detected in a femtosecond pump/probe molecular beam experiment. For short times harmonic motion is seen in the total ion yield of Na^+_2 as a function of delay time between the two laser pulses. The spreading of the wave packet results in the loss of the periodic variation of the ion signal. For longer delay times (47 ps) the wave packet regains its initial form which is reflected in the revival structure of the Na^+_2 signal. Time-dependent quantum calculations reproduce the measured effects.

Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium and the Ternary Plot

The Hardy-Weinberg law, formulated about 100 years ago, states that under certain assumptions, the three genotypes AA, AB and BB at a bi-allelic locus are expected to occur in the proportions p2, 2pq, and q2 respectively, where p is the allele frequency of A, and q = 1-p. There are many statistical tests being used to check whether empirical marker data obeys the Hardy-Weinberg principle. Among these are the classical xi-square test (with or without continuity correction), the likelihood ratio test, Fisher's Exact test, and exact tests in combination with Monte Carlo and Markov Chain algorithms. Tests for Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE) are numerical in nature, requiring the computation of a test statistic and a p-value. There is however, ample space for the use of graphics in HWE tests, in particular for the ternary plot. Nowadays, many genetical studies are using genetical markers known as Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs). SNP data comes in the form of counts, but from the counts one typically computes genotype frequencies and allele frequencies. These frequencies satisfy the unit-sum constraint, and their analysis therefore falls within the realm of compositional data analysis (Aitchison, 1986). SNPs are usually bi-allelic, which implies that the genotype frequencies can be adequately represented in a ternary plot. Compositions that are in exact HWE describe a parabola in the ternary plot. Compositions for which HWE cannot be rejected in a statistical test are typically “close" to the parabola, whereas compositions that differ significantly from HWE are “far". By rewriting the statistics used to test for HWE in terms of heterozygote frequencies, acceptance regions for HWE can be obtained that can be depicted in the ternary plot. This way, compositions can be tested for HWE purely on the basis of their position in the ternary plot (Graffelman & Morales, 2008). This leads to nice graphical representations where large numbers of SNPs can be tested for HWE in a single graph. Several examples of graphical tests for HWE (implemented in R software), will be shown, using SNP data from different human populations

Efecto de la violaci??n de la normalidad y esfericidad en el modelo lineal mixto en dise??os split-plot

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

Múltiplos y divisores : una aplicación del material Plot.

Proyecto realizado por 6 profesores integrados en el grupo GAUSS y que ejercen su labor docente en diferentes centros públicos y privados-concertados, en los niveles de Primaria y Secundaria de la provincia de Salamanca. Tienen como objetivo: Elaborar una Unidad Didáctica de Matemáticas para la Educación Secundaria Obligatoria con las siguientes características: utilizar como base el material Plot; parte de la experiencia práctica (manipulación) hacia las estructuras conceptuales. La organización del aula será en pequeños grupos de 4-6 miembros. El desarrollo de la experiencia pasó por las siguientes fases: -elaboración de guiones de trabajo; -adquisición de materiales; -experimentación de la unidad en los Centros; -valoración de resultados. Los materiales entregados constan de una guía para el profesor y materiales para el alumno. El trabajo no está publicado..

The EU's Promotion of External Democracy: In search of the plot. CEPS Policy Brief No. 281, 13 September 2012

This policy brief illustrates that both the conceptualisation of democracy and the means to achieve it remain vague, and explains why this is problematic. It points out the risks that stem from a lack of clear understanding about how human rights, governance, civil society and socio-economic development relate to democratisation. It concludes that the EU should reflect on the substance of its external democracy promotion policies and conceptualise the relationship between the different elements of democracy promotion cited above and democratisation. While ongoing reforms of international democracy promotion should continue, a wider debate on substance could help identify what the EU should support in the future. The EU should also establish a reflective external democracy promotion policy where the assessment of actions on democratic development becomes systematic and is institutionalised.

The effect of potato variety mixtures on epidemics of late blight, in relation to plot size and level of resistance

Potatoes of a number of varieties of contrasting levels of resistance were planted in pure or mixed stands in four experiments over 3 years. Three experiments compared the late blight severity and progress in mixtures with that in pure stands. Disease on susceptible or moderately resistant varieties typical of those in commercial use was similar in mixtures and pure stands. In 2 of 3 years, there were slight reductions on cv. Sante, which is moderately susceptible, in mixture with cv. Cara, which is moderately resistant. Cara was unaffected by this mixture. Mixtures of an immune or near-immune partner with Cara or Sante substantially reduced disease on the latter. The effect of the size of plots of individual varieties or mixtures on blight severity was compared in two experiments. Larger plots had a greater area under the disease progress curve, but the average rate of disease progress was greater in smaller plots; this may be because most disease progress took place later, under more favourable conditions, in the smaller plots. In one experiment, two planting densities were used. Density had no effect on disease and did not interact with mixture effects. The overall conclusion is that, while mixtures of potato varieties may be desirable for other reasons, they do not offer any improvement on the average of the disease resistance of the components.

Untitled (Abstraction of Labour Time/ External Recurrence/Monad)

Commissioned print. Artist of the Month Club: February, 2010. January Curator: Mark Beasley. Invisible Exports Gallery, New York. Archival Inkjet Print on metallic silver polyester, 841 x 643mm. Edition of 50 + 10ap. Subsequently exhibited in the following exhibition: 'A Unicorn Basking in the Light of Three Glowing Suns' The Devos Art Museum School of Art & Design at Northern Michigan University October 8 – November 14, 2010 Curated by Anthony Elms and Philip von Zweck

Untitled (Abstraction of labour time eternal recurrence monad)

An AHRC funded project titled: Picturing ideas? Visualising and Synthesising Ideas as art (2009-10). Outputs including: 4 exhibitions; 4 publications; 3 papers; 2 largescale backlit digital prints; 1 commissioned print. (See Additional Information) ----ABSTRACT: Utilising the virtuality of digital imagery this practice-led project explored the possibility of the cross-articulation between text and image and the bridging or synthesising potential of the visual affect of ideas. A series of digital images were produced 'picturing' or 'visualising' philosophical ideas derived from the writings of the philosopher Giles Deleuze, as remodellings of pre-existing philosophical ideas; developed through dialogues and consultation with specialists in the fields from which the ideas were drawn (philosophy, psychology, film) as well as artists and theorists concerned with ideas of 'mental imagery' and visualisation. Final images were produced as a synthesis (or combination) of these visualisations and presented in the format of large scale, backlit digital prints at a series of prestigious international exhibitions (see details above). Evaluation took the form of a four page illustrated text in Frieze magazine (August 2009) and three papers delivered at University of Ulster, Goldsmiths College of Art and Loughborough University. The project also included the publication of a catalogue essay (EAST 09) and an illustrated poem (in the Dark Monarch publication). A print version of the image was commissioned by Invisible Exports Gallery, New York and subsequently exhibited in The Devos Art Museum, School of Art & Design at Northern Michigan University and in a publication edited by Cedar Lewisohn for Tate Publishing. The project was funded by an AHRC practice-led grant (17K) and Arts Council of England award (1.5K). The outputs, including high profile, publicly accessible exhibitions, prestigious publications and conference papers ensured the dissemination of the research to a wide range of audiences, including scholars/researchers across the arts and humanities engaged in practice-based and interdisciplinary theoretical work (in particular in the fields of contemporary art and art theory and those working on the integration of art and theory/philosophy/psychology) but also the wider audience for contemporary art.

Use of the ratio plot in capture-recapture estimation

Statistical graphics are a fundamental, yet often overlooked, set of components in the repertoire of data analytic tools. Graphs are quick and efficient, yet simple instruments of preliminary exploration of a dataset to understand its structure and to provide insight into influential aspects of inference such as departures from assumptions and latent patterns. In this paper, we present and assess a graphical device for choosing a method for estimating population size in capture-recapture studies of closed populations. The basic concept is derived from a homogeneous Poisson distribution where the ratios of neighboring Poisson probabilities multiplied by the value of the larger neighbor count are constant. This property extends to the zero-truncated Poisson distribution which is of fundamental importance in capture–recapture studies. In practice however, this distributional property is often violated. The graphical device developed here, the ratio plot, can be used for assessing specific departures from a Poisson distribution. For example, simple contaminations of an otherwise homogeneous Poisson model can be easily detected and a robust estimator for the population size can be suggested. Several robust estimators are developed and a simulation study is provided to give some guidance on which should be used in practice. More systematic departures can also easily be detected using the ratio plot. In this paper, the focus is on Gamma mixtures of the Poisson distribution which leads to a linear pattern (called structured heterogeneity) in the ratio plot. More generally, the paper shows that the ratio plot is monotone for arbitrary mixtures of power series densities.