Psychological pressure in competitive environments: Evidence from a randomized natural experiment

Much like cognitive abilities, emotional skills can have major effects on performance and economic outcomes. This paper studies the behavior of professionalsubjects involved in a dynamic competition in their own natural environment. Thesetting is a penalty shoot-out in soccer where two teams compete in a tournamentframework taking turns in a sequence of five penalty kicks each. As the kicking order is determined by the random outcome of a coin flip, the treatment and control groups are determined via explicit randomization. Therefore, absent any psychological effects, both teams should have the same probability of winning regardless of the kicking order. Yet, we find a systematic first-kicker advantage. Using data on 2,731 penalty kicks from 262 shoot-outs for a three decade period, we find that teams kicking first win the penalty shoot-out 60.5% of the time. A dynamic panel data analysis shows that the psychological mechanism underlying this result arises from the asymmetry in the partial score. As most kicks are scored, kicking first typically means having the opportunity to lead in the partial score, whereas kicking second typically means lagging in the score and having the opportunity to, at most, get even. Having a worse prospect than the opponent hinders subjects' performance.Further, we also find that professionals are self-aware of their own psychological effects. When a recent change in regulations gives winners of the coin toss the chance to choose the kicking order, they rationally react to it by systematically choosing to kick first. A survey of professional players reveals that when asked to explain why they prefer to kick first, they precisely identify the psychological mechanism for which we find empirical support in the data: they want to lead in the score inorder to put pressure on the opponent.

Effect of a novel beta-adrenoceptor agonist (Ro 40-2148) on resting energy expenditure in obese women.

The aim of this single-blind, placebo-controlled study was to investigate the effects of the new beta-adrenergic compound Ro 40-2148 on resting energy expenditure (REE) at rest and after an oral glucose load in non-diabetic obese women before and after two weeks of treatment. After one week of placebo administration and after an overnight fast and one hour rest, REE and glucose and lipid oxidation rates were measured by indirect calorimetry (hood system) before and for 6 h after a single dose of placebo solution. A 75 g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was performed during this period starting 90 min after the placebo administration. During the following two weeks, using a randomization design, six patients received Ro 40-2148 at a dose of 400 mg diluted in 100 ml water twice a day (i.e. 800 mg per day), while six others continued with the placebo administration. The same tests and measurements were repeated after two weeks, except for the treatment group which received the drug instead of the placebo. The 14-day period of drug administration did not increase REE measured in post-absorptive conditions. Similarly, there was no acute effect on REE of a 400 mg dose of Ro 40-2148. In contrast, glucose-induced thermogenesis was significantly increased after two weeks in the treatment group (means +/- s.e.m.: 3.7 +/- 1.3%, P = 0.047), while no change was observed in the placebo group (-0.8 +/- 0.7%, not significant). Since there was no significant change in the respiratory quotient, the increase in energy expenditure observed in the treatment group was due to stimulation of both lipid and glucose oxidation. The drug induced no variations in heart rate, blood pressure, axillary temperature or in plasma glucose, insulin and free fatty acid levels. In conclusion, this study shows that Ro 40-2148 activates glucose-induced thermogenesis in obese non-diabetic patients.

Sequential screening

We present a model of price discrimination where a monopolistfaces a consumer who is privately informed about thedistribution of his valuation for an indivisible unit ofgood but has yet to learn privately the actual valuation.The monopolist sequentially screens the consumer with amenu of contracts:the consumer self-selects once by choosing a contract andthen self-selects again when he learns the actual valuation. A deterministic sequential mechanism is a menu of refundcontracts, each consisting of an advance payment and a refundamount in case of no consumption, but sequential mechanismsmay involve randomization.We characterize the optimal sequential mechanism when someconsumer types are more eager in the sense of first-orderstochastic dominance, and when some types face greatervaluation uncertainty in the sense of mean-preserving-spread.We show that it can be optimal to subsidize consumer typeswith smaller valuation uncertainty (through low refund, as inairplane ticket pricing) in order to reduce the rent to thosewith greater uncertainty. The size of distortion depends bothon the type distribution and on how informative the consumer'sinitial private knowledge is about his valuation, but noton how much he initially knows about the valuation per se.

iLOGP: A Simple, Robust, and Efficient Description of n-Octanol/Water Partition Coefficient for Drug Design Using the GB/SA Approach.

The n-octanol/water partition coefficient (log Po/w) is a key physicochemical parameter for drug discovery, design, and development. Here, we present a physics-based approach that shows a strong linear correlation between the computed solvation free energy in implicit solvents and the experimental log Po/w on a cleansed data set of more than 17,500 molecules. After internal validation by five-fold cross-validation and data randomization, the predictive power of the most interesting multiple linear model, based on two GB/SA parameters solely, was tested on two different external sets of molecules. On the Martel druglike test set, the predictive power of the best model (N = 706, r = 0.64, MAE = 1.18, and RMSE = 1.40) is similar to six well-established empirical methods. On the 17-drug test set, our model outperformed all compared empirical methodologies (N = 17, r = 0.94, MAE = 0.38, and RMSE = 0.52). The physical basis of our original GB/SA approach together with its predictive capacity, computational efficiency (1 to 2 s per molecule), and tridimensional molecular graphics capability lay the foundations for a promising predictor, the implicit log P method (iLOGP), to complement the portfolio of drug design tools developed and provided by the SIB Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics.

A zero-delay sequential scheme for lossy coding of individual sequences

We consider adaptive sequential lossy coding of bounded individual sequences when the performance is measured by the sequentially accumulated mean squared distortion. Theencoder and the decoder are connected via a noiseless channel of capacity $R$ and both are assumed to have zero delay. No probabilistic assumptions are made on how the sequence to be encoded is generated. For any bounded sequence of length $n$, the distortion redundancy is defined as the normalized cumulative distortion of the sequential scheme minus the normalized cumulative distortion of the best scalarquantizer of rate $R$ which is matched to this particular sequence. We demonstrate the existence of a zero-delay sequential scheme which uses common randomization in the encoder and the decoder such that the normalized maximum distortion redundancy converges to zero at a rate $n^{-1/5}\log n$ as the length of the encoded sequence $n$ increases without bound.

Tying up the loose ends in simple correspondence analysis

Although correspondence analysis is now widely available in statistical software packages and applied in a variety of contexts, notably the social and environmental sciences, there are still some misconceptions about this method as well as unresolved issues which remain controversial to this day. In this paper we hope to settle these matters, namely (i) the way CA measures variance in a two-way table and how to compare variances between tables of different sizes, (ii) the influence, or rather lack of influence, of outliers in the usual CA maps, (iii) the scaling issue and the biplot interpretation of maps,(iv) whether or not to rotate a solution, and (v) statistical significance of results.

A randomized crossover study to compare efavirenz and etravirine treatment.

BACKGROUND: Efavirenz (EFV) causes neuropsychiatric side-effects and an unfavourable blood lipid profile. We investigated the effect of replacing EFV with etravirine (ETR) on patient preference, sleep, anxiety and lipid levels. METHOD: Study participants did not complain of side-effects, had tolerated EFV for at least 3 months, with less than 50 copies/ml HIV-RNA. After randomization, the ETR-first group started with ETR (400 mg daily) [DOSAGE ERROR CORRECTED] with EFV-placebo and the EFV-first group with EFV with ETR-placebo. After 6 weeks, both groups switched to the alternate regimen. Nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors were continued without any change. The primary end point was patient preference for the first or the second regimen, assessed after 12 weeks. RESULTS: Fifty-eight patients were enrolled with a median CD4 cell count of 589 cells/μl and the duration of previous EFV therapy was 3.9 years. Fifty-five patients completed the study. When asked about treatment preference after 12 weeks, 16 preferred EFV and 22 preferred ETR, whereas 17 did not express a preference (P = NS). Patients who continued EFV during the first phase of the trial preferred EFV (15/21, 71%), whereas patients who started with ETR were more likely to prefer ETR (n = 16/17, 94%). This order effect was strongly significant (P < 0.0001). Quality of sleep, depression, anxiety and stress scores did not differ significantly between groups. Median plasma cholesterol levels decreased by 0.7 mmol (29 mg/100 ml) after replacing EFV with ETR (P < 0.002). CONCLUSION: After substitution of EFV by ETR, patients did not express a significant preference for ETR. There was no measurable effect on neuropsychiatric symptoms and sleep. Cholesterol decreased.

Impacte d'un programa d'informació sobre l'elaboració del document de voluntats anticipades

Tot i que en el nostre territori comptem des de els anys 80 amb diferents models de Document de Voluntats Anticipades (DVA), aquests continuen essent desconeguts tant per la ciutadania com pels professionals de la salut. Aquesta situació ha fet que ens plantegem com a objectiu d’aquest estudi descriure si existeix la correlació entre el fet de proporcionar informació sobre el DVA i la motivació per la seva realització. En aquest estudi hem agafat com a mostra els usuaris del servei de psicogeriatria de la Fundació Sociosanitaria de Manresa l’Hospital de Sant Andreu de Manresa, tenint en compte les recomanacions del Document Sitges del 2005 i d’altres autors que recomanen fer el DVA en situació de demència lleu o moderada. També s’ha tingut present l’elevada prevalença d’aquesta patologia. S'ha dissenyat un assaig clínic comunitari amb aleatorització de dos consultoris d'un servei de psicogeriatria. Els metges del consultori assignat al grup control feien el tractament habitual en relació al DVA, és a dir, no informar els pacients atesos sobre l'existència i característiques del DVA, i els metges del consultori assignat al grup intervenció donaven informació reglada als seus pacients sobre el DVA. En el moment de la inclusió es registrava informació sociodemogràfica i clínica per poder classificar els participants i, també a tots els subjectes inclosos en l'assaig, al cap de tres setmanes se'ls feia una enquesta telefònica per avaluar l'opinió i el coneixement sobre el DVA. De les respostes de l’enquesta podem extreure com a resultats que més del 90% dels subjectes del grup control no coneixen el DVA. També s’observa de manera significativa com les persones del grup intervenció parlen amb el metge,la infermera i/o la família sobre la dependència i la mort, tenint en compte que la mort i la dependència continuen sent un tema tabú, i que la majoria de la població de l’estudi no planifiquen com volen ser atesos. Tanmateix s’observa com un 2’3 % tenia fet el DVA i un 22’7% manifesten la seva voluntat de realitzar-lo. Amb aquest estudi es conclou que el fet de proporcionar informació sobre el DVA als usuaris del servei de psicogeriatria afavoreix que aquests estiguin motivats per la realització d’aquest document; al mateix temps també afavoreix la planificació de les cures i el parlar sobres temes com la mort i/o la dependència amb la família, el metge la infermera.

Is Less Chemotherapy Detrimental in Adults with Philadelphia Chromosome (Ph)-Positive Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL) Treated with High-Dose Imatinib? Results of the Prospective Randomized Graaph-2005 Study

Aim: To compare a less intensive regimen based on high-dose imatinib (IM) to an intensive IM/HyperCVAD regimen in adults with Ph+ ALL, in terms of early response and outcome after stem cell transplantation (SCT). Methods: Patients aged 18-60 years with previously untreated Ph+ ALL not evolving from chronic myeloid leukemia were eligible if no contra-indication to chemotherapy and SCT (ClinicalTrials.gov ID, NCT00327678). After a steroid prephase allowing Ph and/or BCR-ABL diagnosis, cycle 1 differed between randomization arms. In arm A (IM-based), IM was given at 800 mg on day 1-28, combined with vincristine (2 mg, day 1, 8, 15, 22) and dexamethasone (40 mg, day 1-2, 8-9, 15-16, and 22-23) only. In arm B (IM/HyperCVAD), IM was given at 800 mg on day 1-14, combined with adriamycin (50 mg/m2, day 4), cyclophosphamide (300 mg/m2/12h, day 1, 2, 3), vincristine (2 mg, day 4 and 11), and dexamethasone (40 mg, day 1-4 and 11-14). All patients received a cycle 2 combining high-dose methotrexate (1 g/m2, day 1) and AraC (3 g/m2/12h, day 2 and 3) with IM at 800 mg on day 1-14, whatever their response. Four intrathecal infusions were given during this induction/consolidation period. Minimal residual disease (MRD) was centrally evaluated by quantitative RQ-PCR after cycle 1 (MRD1) and cycle 2 (MRD2). Major MRD response was defined as BCR-ABL/ABL ratio <0.1%. Then, all patients were to receive allogeneic SCT using related or unrelated matched donor stem cells or autologous SCT if no donor and a major MRD2 response. IM/chemotherapy maintenance was planned after autologous SCT. In the absence of SCT, patients received alternating cycles 1 (as in arm B) and cycles 2 followed by maintenance, like in the published IM/HyperCVAD regimen. The primary objective was non-inferiority of arm A in term of major MRD2 response. Secondary objectives were CR rate, SCT rate, treatment- and transplant-related mortality, relapse-free (RFS), event-free (EFS) and overall (OS) survival. Results: Among the 270 patients randomized between May 2006 and August 2011, 265 patients were evaluable for this analysis (133 arm A, 132 arm B; median age, 47 years; median follow-up, 40 months). Main patient characteristics were well-balanced between both arms. Due to higher induction mortality in arm B (9 versus 1 deaths; P=0.01), CR rate was higher in the less intensive arm A (98% versus 89% after cycle 1 and 98% versus 91% after cycle 2; P= 0.003 and 0.006, respectively). A total of 213 and 205 patients were evaluated for bone marrow MRD1 and MRD2. The rates of patients reaching major MRD response and undetectable MRD were 45% (44% arm A, 46% arm B; P=0.79) and 10% (in both arms) at MRD1 and 66% (68% arm A, 63.5% arm B; P=0.56) and 25% (28% arm A, 22% arm B; P=0.33) at MRD2, respectively. The non-inferiority primary endpoint was thus demonstrated (P= 0.002). Overall, EFS was estimated at 42% (95% CI, 35-49) and OS at 51% (95% CI, 44-57) at 3 years, with no difference between arm A and B (46% versus 38% and 53% versus 49%; P=0.25 and 0.61, respectively). Of the 251 CR patients, 157 (80 arm A, 77 arm B) and 34 (17 in both arms) received allogeneic and autologous SCT in first CR, respectively. Allogeneic transplant-related mortality was similar in both arms (31.5% versus 22% at 3 years; P=0.51). Of the 157 allografted patients, 133 had MRD2 evaluation and 89 had MRD2 <0.1%. In these patients, MRD2 did not significantly influence post-transplant RFS and OS, either when tested with the 0.1% cutoff or as a continuous log covariate. Of the 34 autografted patients, 31 had MRD2 evaluation and, according to the protocol, 28 had MRD2 <0.1%. When restricting the comparison to patients achieving major MRD2 response and with the current follow-up, a trend for better results was observed after autologous as compared to allogeneic SCT (RFS, 63% versus 49.5% and OS, 69% versus 58% at 3 years; P=0.35 and P=0.08, respectively). Conclusions: In adults, the use of TK inhibitors (TKI) has markedly improved the results of Ph+ ALL therapy, now close to those observed in Ph-negative ALL. We demonstrated here that chemotherapy intensity may be safely reduced when associated with high-dose IM. We will further explore this TKI-based strategy using nilotinib prior to SCT in our next GRAAPH-2013 trial. The trend towards a better outcome after autologous compared to allogeneic SCT observed in MRD responders validates MRD as an important early surrogate endpoint for treatment stratification and new drug investigation in this disease.

Influence of early antioxidant supplements on clinical evolution and organ function in critically ill cardiac surgery, major trauma, and subarachnoid hemorrhage patients.

INTRODUCTION: Oxidative stress is involved in the development of secondary tissue damage and organ failure. Micronutrients contributing to the antioxidant (AOX) defense exhibit low plasma levels during critical illness. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of early AOX micronutrients on clinical outcome in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with conditions characterized by oxidative stress. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, single-center trial in patients admitted to a university hospital ICU with organ failure after complicated cardiac surgery, major trauma, or subarachnoid hemorrhage. Stratification by diagnosis was performed before randomization. The intervention was intravenous supplements for 5 days (selenium 270 microg, zinc 30 mg, vitamin C 1.1 g, and vitamin B1 100 mg) with a double-loading dose on days 1 and 2 or placebo. RESULTS: Two hundred patients were included (102 AOX and 98 placebo). While age and gender did not differ, brain injury was more severe in the AOX trauma group (P = 0.019). Organ function endpoints did not differ: incidence of acute kidney failure and sequential organ failure assessment score decrease were similar (-3.2 +/- 3.2 versus -4.2 +/- 2.3 over the course of 5 days). Plasma concentrations of selenium, zinc, and glutathione peroxidase, low on admission, increased significantly to within normal values in the AOX group. C-reactive protein decreased faster in the AOX group (P = 0.039). Infectious complications did not differ. Length of hospital stay did not differ (16.5 versus 20 days), being shorter only in surviving AOX trauma patients (-10 days; P = 0.045). CONCLUSION: The AOX intervention did not reduce early organ dysfunction but significantly reduced the inflammatory response in cardiac surgery and trauma patients, which may prove beneficial in conditions with an intense inflammation. TRIALS REGISTRATION: Clinical Trials.gov RCT Register: NCT00515736.

On making causal claims: A review and recommendations

Social scientists often estimate models from correlational data, where the independent variable has not been exogenously manipulated; they also make implicit or explicit causal claims based on these models. When can these claims be made? We answer this question by first discussing design and estimation conditions under which model estimates can be interpreted, using the randomized experiment as the gold standard. We show how endogeneity--which includes omitted variables, omitted selection, simultaneity, common methods bias, and measurement error--renders estimates causally uninterpretable. Second, we present methods that allow researchers to test causal claims in situations where randomization is not possible or when causal interpretation is confounded, including fixed-effects panel, sample selection, instrumental variable, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences models. Third, we take stock of the methodological rigor with which causal claims are being made in a social sciences discipline by reviewing a representative sample of 110 articles on leadership published in the previous 10 years in top-tier journals. Our key finding is that researchers fail to address at least 66 % and up to 90 % of design and estimation conditions that make causal claims invalid. We conclude by offering 10 suggestions on how to improve non-experimental research.

Nicotine vaccines for smoking cessation.

BACKGROUND: By reducing the amount of nicotine that reaches the brain when a person smokes a cigarette, nicotine vaccines may help people to stop smoking or to prevent recent quitters from relapsing. OBJECTIVES: The aims of this review are to assess the efficacy of nicotine vaccines for smoking cessation and for relapse prevention, and to assess the frequency and type of adverse events associated with the use of nicotine vaccines. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Review Group specialised register for trials, using the term 'vaccine' in the title or abstract, or in a keyword (date of most recent search April 2012). To identify any other material including reviews and papers potentially relevant to the background or discussion sections, we also searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycINFO, combining terms for nicotine vaccines with terms for smoking and tobacco use, without design limits or limits for human subjects. We searched the Annual Meeting abstracts of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco up to 2012, using the search string 'vaccin'. We searched Google Scholar for 'nicotine vaccine'. We also searched company websites and Google for information related to specific vaccines. We searched clinicaltrials.gov in March 2012 for 'nicotine vaccine' and for the trade names of known vaccine candidates. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomized controlled trials of nicotine vaccines, at Phase II and Phase III trial stage and beyond, in adult smokers or recent ex-smokers. We included studies of nicotine vaccines used as part of smoking cessation or relapse prevention interventions. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We extracted data on the type of participants, the dose and duration of treatment, the outcome measures, the randomization procedure, concealment of allocation, blinding of participants and personnel, reporting of outcomes, and completeness of follow-up.Our primary outcome measure was a minimum of six months abstinence from smoking. We used the most rigorous definition of abstinence, and preferred cessation rates at 12 months and biochemically validated rates where available. We have used the risk ratio (RR) to summarize individual trial outcomes. We have not pooled the current group of included studies as they cover different vaccines and variable regimens. MAIN RESULTS: There are no nicotine vaccines currently licensed for public use, but there are a number in development. We found four trials which met our inclusion criteria, three comparing NicVAX to placebo and one comparing NIC002 (formerly NicQbeta) to placebo. All were smoking cessation trials conducted by pharmaceutical companies as part of the drug development process, and all trials were judged to be at high or unclear risk of bias in at least one domain. Overall, 2642 smokers participated in the included studies in this review. None of the four included studies detected a statistically significant difference in long-term cessation between participants receiving vaccine and those receiving placebo. The RR for 12 month cessation in active and placebo groups was 1.35 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.82 to 2.22) in the trial of NIC002 and 1.74 (95% CI 0.73 to 4.18) in one NicVAX trial. Two Phase III NicVAX trials, for which full results were not available, reported similar quit rates of approximately 11% in both groups. In the two studies with full results available, post hoc analyses detected higher cessation rates in participants with higher levels of nicotine antibodies, but these findings are not readily generalisable. The two studies with full results showed nicotine vaccines to be well tolerated, with the majority of adverse events classified as mild or moderate. In the study of NIC002, participants receiving the vaccine were more likely to report mild to moderate adverse events, most commonly flu-like symptoms, whereas in the study of NicVAX there was no significant difference between the two arms. Information on adverse events was not available for the large Phase III trials of NicVAX.Vaccine candidates are likely to undergo significant changes before becoming available to the general public, and those included in this review may not be the first to reach market; this limits the external validity of the results reported in this review in terms of both effectiveness and tolerability. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is currently no evidence that nicotine vaccines enhance long-term smoking cessation. Rates of serious adverse events recorded in the two trials with full data available were low, and the majority of adverse events reported were at mild to moderate levels. The evidence available suggests nicotine vaccines do not induce compensatory smoking or affect withdrawal symptoms. No nicotine vaccines are currently licensed for use in any country but a number are under development.Further trials of nicotine vaccines are needed, comparing vaccines with placebo for smoking cessation. Further trials are also needed to explore the potential of nicotine vaccines to prevent relapse. Results from past, current and future research should be reported in full. Adverse events and serious adverse events should continue to be carefully monitored and thoroughly reported.

Randomized controlled trial of interventions for young people at ultra-high risk of psychosis: study design and baseline characteristics.

OBJECTIVE: Intervention during the pre-psychotic period of illness holds the potential of delaying or even preventing the onset of a full-threshold disorder, or at least of reducing the impact of such a disorder if it does develop. The first step in realizing this aim was achieved more than 10 years ago with the development and validation of criteria for the identification of young people at ultra-high risk (UHR) of psychosis. Results of three clinical trials have been published that provide mixed support for the effectiveness of psychological and pharmacological interventions in preventing the onset of psychotic disorder. METHOD: The present paper describes a fourth study that has now been undertaken in which young people who met UHR criteria were randomized to one of three treatment groups: cognitive therapy plus risperidone (CogTher + Risp: n = 43); cognitive therapy plus placebo (CogTher + Placebo: n = 44); and supportive counselling + placebo (Supp + Placebo; n = 28). A fourth group of young people who did not agree to randomization were also followed up (monitoring: n = 78). Baseline characteristics of participants are provided. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: The present study improves on the previous studies because treatment was provided for 12 months and the independent contributions of psychological and pharmacological treatments in preventing transition to psychosis in the UHR cohort and on levels of psychopathology and functioning can be directly compared. Issues associated with recruitment and randomization are discussed.

Lenalidomide maintenance after stem-cell transplantation for multiple myeloma.

BACKGROUND: High-dose chemotherapy with autologous stem-cell transplantation is a standard treatment for young patients with multiple myeloma. Residual disease is almost always present after transplantation and is responsible for relapse. This phase 3, placebo-controlled trial investigated the efficacy of lenalidomide maintenance therapy after transplantation. METHODS: We randomly assigned 614 patients younger than 65 years of age who had nonprogressive disease after first-line transplantation to maintenance treatment with either lenalidomide (10 mg per day for the first 3 months, increased to 15 mg if tolerated) or placebo until relapse. The primary end point was progression-free survival. RESULTS: Lenalidomide maintenance therapy improved median progression-free survival (41 months, vs. 23 months with placebo; hazard ratio, 0.50; P<0.001). This benefit was observed across all patient subgroups, including those based on the β(2)-microglobulin level, cytogenetic profile, and response after transplantation. With a median follow-up period of 45 months, more than 70% of patients in both groups were alive at 4 years. The rates of grade 3 or 4 peripheral neuropathy were similar in the two groups. The incidence of second primary cancers was 3.1 per 100 patient-years in the lenalidomide group versus 1.2 per 100 patient-years in the placebo group (P=0.002). Median event-free survival (with events that included second primary cancers) was significantly improved with lenalidomide (40 months, vs. 23 months with placebo; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Lenalidomide maintenance after transplantation significantly prolonged progression-free and event-free survival among patients with multiple myeloma. Four years after randomization, overall survival was similar in the two study groups. (Funded by the Programme Hospitalier de Recherche Clinique and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00430365.).