不确定性类型对概率表达和概率判断的影响

The present research firstly reviewed the experimental literature on probability expression and probability judgment, hypothesizing that individuals’ preference of probability expressions (verbal probability vs. numerical probability) and tendency for overextremity in probability judgment might differ with respect to different types of uncertainty. Five studies were conducted to test this hypothesis. In Study 1, questionnaires were used to explore the communication preference among Chinese-speaking people. Study 2 adapted the View of Uncertainty Questionnaire to explore the difference of verbal answers to three kinds of uncertainty. Study 3 and Study 4 used methods of the paper-and-pencil questionnaire and the laboratory experiment, respectively, to test the effects of uncertainty types on the preference of probability expressions and on the tendency for over-extreme probability judgment. Finally, Study 5 focused on individuals’ preference of probability expressions under various kinds of scenarios. The results were as follows: 1. The Communication Model Preference paradox phenomenon appears to be even more pronounced in the Chinese culture than in American English cultural settings. 2. The Chinese prefer more verbal probability expressions when communicating uncertainty in a weather-forecasting context than in a general context. 3. Sample groups with lower level of westernization tend to give more extreme answers and less probabilistic answers. 4. Types of uncertainty did have effects on individuals’ tendency for over-extreme probability judgment: under a traditional probability judgment task, people tend to be more over-extreme on internal uncertainty events than on external uncertainty events; however, this result is reversed under a gambling task. 5. Individuals’ preference for verbal probability expressions is more salient on internal uncertain events than on external uncertain events.

Developing a Pedagogy for Interactive Learning.

Recent developments in higher education have seen the demise of much didactic, teacher-directed instruction which was aimed mainly towards lower-level educational objectives. This traditional educational approach has been largely replaced by methods which feature the teacher as an originator or facilitator of interactive and learner-centred learning - with higher-level aims in mind. The origins of, and need for, these changes are outlined, leading into an account of the emerging pedagogical approach to interactive learning, featuring facilitation and reflection. Some of the main challenges yet to be confronted effectively in consolidating a sound and comprehensive pedagogical approach to interactive development of higher level educational aims are outlined.

Safe Compositional Specification of Networking Systems

The Science of Network Service Composition has clearly emerged as one of the grand themes driving many of our research questions in the networking field today [NeXtworking 2003]. This driving force stems from the rise of sophisticated applications and new networking paradigms. By "service composition" we mean that the performance and correctness properties local to the various constituent components of a service can be readily composed into global (end-to-end) properties without re-analyzing any of the constituent components in isolation, or as part of the whole composite service. The set of laws that would govern such composition is what will constitute that new science of composition. The combined heterogeneity and dynamic open nature of network systems makes composition quite challenging, and thus programming network services has been largely inaccessible to the average user. We identify (and outline) a research agenda in which we aim to develop a specification language that is expressive enough to describe different components of a network service, and that will include type hierarchies inspired by type systems in general programming languages that enable the safe composition of software components. We envision this new science of composition to be built upon several theories (e.g., control theory, game theory, network calculus, percolation theory, economics, queuing theory). In essence, different theories may provide different languages by which certain properties of system components can be expressed and composed into larger systems. We then seek to lift these lower-level specifications to a higher level by abstracting away details that are irrelevant for safe composition at the higher level, thus making theories scalable and useful to the average user. In this paper we focus on services built upon an overlay management architecture, and we use control theory and QoS theory as example theories from which we lift up compositional specifications.

Wireless and Physical Security via Embedded Sensor Networks

Wireless Intrusion Detection Systems (WIDS) monitor 802.11 wireless frames (Layer-2) in an attempt to detect misuse. What distinguishes a WIDS from a traditional Network IDS is the ability to utilize the broadcast nature of the medium to reconstruct the physical location of the offending party, as opposed to its possibly spoofed (MAC addresses) identity in cyber space. Traditional Wireless Network Security Systems are still heavily anchored in the digital plane of "cyber space" and hence cannot be used reliably or effectively to derive the physical identity of an intruder in order to prevent further malicious wireless broadcasts, for example by escorting an intruder off the premises based on physical evidence. In this paper, we argue that Embedded Sensor Networks could be used effectively to bridge the gap between digital and physical security planes, and thus could be leveraged to provide reciprocal benefit to surveillance and security tasks on both planes. Toward that end, we present our recent experience integrating wireless networking security services into the SNBENCH (Sensor Network workBench). The SNBENCH provides an extensible framework that enables the rapid development and automated deployment of Sensor Network applications on a shared, embedded sensing and actuation infrastructure. The SNBENCH's extensible architecture allows an engineer to quickly integrate new sensing and response capabilities into the SNBENCH framework, while high-level languages and compilers allow novice SN programmers to compose SN service logic, unaware of the lower-level implementation details of tools on which their services rely. In this paper we convey the simplicity of the service composition through concrete examples that illustrate the power and potential of Wireless Security Services that span both the physical and digital plane.

A Memory Model for Concept Hierarchy Representation and Commonsense Reasoning

Most associative memory models perform one level mapping between predefined sets of input and output patterns1 and are unable to represent hierarchical knowledge. Complex AI systems allow hierarchical representation of concepts, but generally do not have learning capabilities. In this paper, a memory model is proposed which forms concept hierarchy by learning sample relations between concepts. All concepts are represented in a concept layer. Relations between a concept and its defining lower level concepts, are chunked as cognitive codes represented in a coding layer. By updating memory contents in the concept layer through code firing in the coding layer, the system is able to perform an important class of commonsense reasoning, namely recognition and inheritance.

Violence Exposure and Welfare over Time: Evidence from the Burundi Civil War

We investigate the relationship between exposure to conflict and poverty dynamics over time, using original three-waves panel data for Burundi which tracked individuals and reported local-level violence exposure from 1998 to 2012. Firstly, the data reveal that headcount poverty has not changed since 1998 while we observe multiple transitions into and out of poverty. Moreover, households exposed to the war exhibit a lower level of welfare than non-exposed households, with the difference between the two groups predicted to remain significant at least until 2017, i.e. twelve years after the conflict termination. The correlation between violence exposure and deprivation over time is confirmed in a household-level panel setting. Secondly, our empirical investigation shows how violence exposure over different time spans interacts with households' subsequent welfare. Our analysis of the determinants of households' likelihood to switch poverty status (i.e. to fall into poverty or escape poverty) combined with quantile regressions suggest that, (i) exposure during the first phase of the conflict has affected the entire distribution, and (ii) exposure during the second phase of the conflict has mostly affected the upper tail of the distribution: initially non-poor households have a higher propensity to fall into poverty while initially poor households see their propensity to pull through only slightly decrease with recent exposure to violence. Although not directly testable with the data at hand, these results are consistent with the changing nature of violence in the course of the Burundi civil war, from relatively more labour-destructive to relatively more capital-destructive.

Der Bildungsbericht 2011

Ziel des Bildungsberichts ist es, das Bildungsgeschehen und die Bildungswege von Kindern, Jugendlichen und jungen Erwachsenen in der Stadt Essen anhand der ausgewählten Indikatoren abzubilden. Damit soll zunächst für Essen die Frage beantwortet werden, ob und in welchem Maß der allgemein behauptete Zusammenhang von sozialer Herkunft und Bildungserfolg besteht, um dann identifizieren zu können, wo die Stellschrauben für eine erfolgreiche Intervention sind. Der Aufbau des Bildungsberichts orientiert sich grundsätzlich an den chronologischen Stufen einer idealtypischen Bildungsbiographie und an den durchlaufenen Einrichtungen, wobei eine Einbettung in einen gesamthaften sozialen Kontext erfolgt. Hieraus begründet sich die thematische Spannbreite der zusammengestellten Informationen. Da die Lebens- und Aufwachsbedingungen im Stadtgebiet erheblich differieren, erfolgt die Berichterstattung in vielen Segmenten in kleinräumiger Betrachtungsweise. (DIPF/Orig.)

Personalised e-learning, semantic web and learning ontologies

Kurzel(2004) points out that researchers in e-learning and educational technologists, in a quest to provide improved Learning Environments (LE) for students are focusing on personalising the experience through a Learning Management System (LMS) that attempts to tailor the LE to the individual (see amongst others Eklund & Brusilovsky, 1998; Kurzel, Slay, & Hagenus, 2003; Martinez,2000; Sampson, Karagiannidis, & Kinshuk, 2002; Voigt & Swatman; 2003). According to Kurzel (2004) this tailoring can have an impact on content and how it’s accessed; the media forms used; method of instruction employed and the learning styles supported. This project is aiming to move personalisation forward to the next generation, by tackling the issue of Personalised e-Learning platforms as pre-requisites for building and generating individualised learning solutions. The proposed development is to create an e-learning platform with personalisation built-in. This personalisation is proposed to be set from different levels of within the system starting from being guided by the information that the user inputs into the system down to the lower level of being set using information inferred by the system’s processing engine. This paper will discuss some of our early work and ideas.

Semantic web and e-learning

With emergence of "Semantic Web" there has been much discussion about the impact of technologies such as XML and RDF on the way we use the Web for developing e-learning applications and perhaps more importantly on how we can personalise these applications. Personalisation of e-learning is viewed by many authors (see amongst others Eklund & Brusilovsky, 1998; Kurzel, Slay, & Hagenus, 2003; Martinez, 2000; Sampson, Karagiannidis, & Kinshuk, 2002; Voigt & Swatman, 2003) as the key challenge for the learning technologists. According to Kurzel (2004) the tailoring of e-learning applications can have an impact on content and how it's accesses; the media forms used; method of instruction employed and the learning styles supported. This paper will report on a research project currently underway at the eCentre in University of Greenwich which is exploring different approaches and methodologies to create an e-learning platform with personalisation built-in. This personalisation is proposed to be set from different levels of within the system starting from being guided by the information that the user inputs into the system down to the lower level of being set using information inferred by the system's processing engine.

Beneficial ownership and detriment

Considers the factors which contribute to a court finding that a cohabitee has a beneficial interest in property, in particular the detriment which is required to establish a constructive trust, with reference to the Chancery Division decision in Levi v Levi and previous case law. Outlines the provisions on express or inferred common intention. Considers whether a loan of money from the non-owning to the owning cohabitant, made at a lower level than commercial loans, towards the purchase the property was sufficient detriment to entitle her to proceeds of sale from the property.

Erziehung und Bildung in Offenbach. Bericht 2015

Der Bericht "Erziehung und Bildung in Offenbach. Bericht 2015" (EBO), herausgegeben von Stadt Offenbach am Main, wird zum 9. Mal veröffentlicht. Erstmals wurden Daten der integrierten Ausbildungsberichterstattung für Hessen (iABE) einbezogen. Sie ermöglichen eine wohnortspezifische Analyse der Übergänge von der Sekundarstufe I in unterschiedliche Zielbereiche, wie z.B. Berufsabschluss oder Hochschulreife. Der EBO 2015 bietet vermehrt Zeitreihen, um langfristige Entwicklungen im Bildungsbereich darzustellen. Der Standortbestimmung dienen darüber hinaus interkommunale Vergleiche. Der EBO beinhaltet seit dem Bericht 2009 den von der Jugendhilfeplanung entwickelten „Index bildungsrelevanter sozialer Belastung“. Mit diesem können besondere pädagogischen Bedarfe in den 14 Grundschulbezirken ermittelt und faire, d.h. die unterschiedlichen Anteile bildungsbenachteiligter Schüler/-innen berücksichtigende, Schulleistungsvergleiche ermöglicht werden. Im Rahmen dieser Analyse rücken erstmals die Mädchen mit Migrationshintergrund in den Fokus: So fällt auf, dass im Übergang Grundschule/Gymnasium die Übergangsquote bei Mädchen mit Migrationshintergrund um 15 Prozentpunkte niedriger liegt als die der Mädchen ohne Migrationshintergrund. Sie liegt sogar knapp unter der Übergangsquote der Jungen mit Migrationshintergrund. Eine Erklärung dafür, dass die Mädchen mit Migrationshintergrund beim Übergang zum Gymnasium nicht zu den Bildungsgewinnern zählen, steht aber aus. Der Bericht verdeutlicht auch, dass der Bereich der Sprachförderung in allen Bildungsbereichen – „lebenslang“ – in der Kommune eine herausragende Rolle spielt. Der Bericht greift Linien des "Orientierungsrahmen für Bildungsentwicklung“ der Stadt Offenbach" auf. Der Prozess und die Erarbeitung wurden erstmals von der Fachstelle Bildungskoordinierung und Beratung federführend koordiniert. (DIPF/Autor)

Developments since 2005 in understanding potential environmental impacts of CO2 leakage from geological storage

This paper reviews research into the potential environmental impacts of leakage from geological storage of CO2 since the publication of the IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage in 2005. Possible impacts are considered on onshore (including drinking water aquifers) and offshore ecosystems. The review does not consider direct impacts on man or other land animals from elevated atmospheric CO2 levels. Improvements in our understanding of the potential impacts have come directly from CO2 storage research but have also benefitted from studies of ocean acidification and other impacts on aquifers and onshore near surface ecosystems. Research has included observations at natural CO2 sites, laboratory and field experiments and modelling. Studies to date suggest that the impacts from many lower level fault- or well-related leakage scenarios are likely to be limited spatially and temporarily and recovery may be rapid. The effects are often ameliorated by mixing and dispersion of the leakage and by buffering and other reactions; potentially harmful elements have rarely breached drinking water guidelines. Larger releases, with potentially higher impact, would be possible from open wells or major pipeline leaks but these are of lower probability and should be easier and quicker to detect and remediate.

Differences in expression of junctional adhesion molecule-A and beta catenin in multiple sclerosis brain tissue: increasing evidence for the role of tight junction pathology

Previously we have employed antibodies to the tight junction (TJ)-associated proteins ZO-1 and occludin to describe endothelial tight junction abnormalities, in lesional and normal appearing white matter, in primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (MS). This work is extended here by use of antibodies to the independent TJ-specific proteins and junctional adhesion molecule A & B (JAM-A, JAM-B). We have also assessed the expression in MS of ß-catenin, a protein specific to the TJ-associated adherens junction. Immunocytochemistry and semiquantitative confocal microscopy for JAM-A and ß-catenin was performed on snap-frozen sections from MS cases (n = 11) and controls (n = 6). Data on 1,443 blood vessels was acquired from active lesions (n = 13), inactive lesions (n = 13), NAWM (n = 20) and control white matter (n = 13). In MS abnormal JAM-A expression was found in active (46%) and inactive lesions (21%), comparable to previous data using ZO-1. However, a lower level of TJ abnormality was found in MS NAWM using JAM-A (3%) compared to ZO-1 (13%). JAM-B was strongly expressed on a small number of large blood vessels in control and MS tissues but at too low a level for quantitative analysis. By comparison with the high levels of abnormality observed with the TJ proteins, the adherens junction protein ß-catenin was normally expressed in all MS and control tissue categories. These results confirm, by use of the independent marker JAM-A, that TJ abnormalities are most frequent in active white matter lesions. Altered expression of JAM-A, in addition to affecting junctional tightness may also both reflect and affect leukocyte trafficking, with implications for immune status within the diseased CNS. Conversely, the adherens junction component of the TJ, as indicated by ß-catenin expression is normally expressed in all MS and control tissue categories.

Solvation effects on equilibria: Triazoles and N-methyl piperidinol

We have performed calculations of the solvation effects on a number of equilibrium constants in water using a recently proposed hybrid quantum classical scheme in which the liquid environment is modelled using classical solvent molecules and the solute electronic structure is computed using modern quantum chemical methods. The liquid phase space is sampled from a fully classical simulation. We find that solvation effects on both triazole tautomeric equilibrium constants and piperidinol conformational equilibrium constants can be interpreted in terms of subtle differences in the local environment which can be seen in probability densities and radial distribution functions. Lower level calculations were performed for comparison and we conclude that the solvation thermodynamics can be predicted from a good classical model of solvent and solute molecules, but the implicit models that we tried are less successful.

The influence of gender in the direction of Spanish cooperative societies on profitability and indebtedness: an empirical analysis

In this paper the claim for the market for a new business management to ensure the presence of women in decision -making to respond to new social needs addressed. Thus, this paper analyzes the influence of gender diversity of the directors on the profitability and the level of debt for a sample of 5,199 Spanish cooperatives. Unlike capitalist societies, these organizations have a number of peculiarities in their government, and that the partners are themselves major time, agents and customers. The study focuses on the Spanish context, where there is an open debate on the importance of women's business management, as in other countries, driven by the proliferation of legislation on gender equality, being, in addition, Spain, the pioneer in having specific legislation on Social Economy. The results show that cooperatives with greater female representation in theirs Boards have higher profitability. On the other hand, those Boards with a higher percentage of women show a lower level of indebtedness.