Random regression models to estimate genetic parameters for milk production of Guzerat cows using orthogonal Legendre polynomials

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Pressure Dependence of N-15 Chemical Shifts in Model Peptides Ac-Gly-Gly-X-Ala-NH2

High pressure NMR spectroscopy has developed into an important tool for studying conformational equilibria of proteins in solution. We have studied the amide proton and nitrogen chemical shifts of the 20 canonical amino acids X in the random-coil model peptide Ac-Gly-Gly-X-Ala-NH2, in a pressure range from 0.1 to 200 MPa, at a proton resonance frequency of 800 MHz. The obtained data allowed the determination of first and second order pressure coefficients with high accuracy at 283 K and pH 6.7. The mean first and second order pressure coefficients <B-1(15N)> and <B-2(15N)> for nitrogen are 2.91 ppm/GPa and -2.32 ppm/GPa(2), respectively. The corresponding values <B-1(1H)> and <B-2(1H)> for the amide protons are 0.52 ppm/GPa and -0.41 ppm/GPa(2). Residual dependent (1)J(1H15N)-coupling constants are shown.

Design-based random permutation models with auxiliary information

We extend the random permutation model to obtain the best linear unbiased estimator of a finite population mean accounting for auxiliary variables under simple random sampling without replacement (SRS) or stratified SRS. The proposed method provides a systematic design-based justification for well-known results involving common estimators derived under minimal assumptions that do not require specification of a functional relationship between the response and the auxiliary variables.

Holographic field theory models of dark energy in interaction with dark matter

We discuss two Lagrangian interacting dark energy models in the context of the holographic principle. The potentials of the interacting fields are constructed. The models are compared with CMB distance information, baryonic acoustic oscillations, lookback time and the Constitution supernovae sample. For both models, the results are consistent with a nonvanishing interaction in the dark sector of the Universe and the sign of coupling is consistent with dark energy decaying into dark matter, alleviating the coincidence problem-with more than 3 standard deviations of confidence for one of them. However, this is because the noninteracting holographic dark energy model is a bad fit to the combination of data sets used in this work as compared to the cosmological constant with cold dark matter model, so that one needs to introduce the interaction in order to improve this model.

Evaluation of a Bayesian MCMC Random Effects Inference Methodology for Capture-Mark-Recapture Data

Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate properties of a simple Bayesian MCMC analysis of the random effects model for single group Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture data. The MCMC method is applied to the model via a logit link, so parameters p, S are on a logit scale, where logit(S) is assumed to have, and is generated from, a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2 . Marginal prior distributions on logit(p) and μ were independent normal with mean zero and standard deviation 1.75 for logit(p) and 100 for μ ; hence minimally informative. Marginal prior distribution on σ2 was placed on τ2=1/σ2 as a gamma distribution with α=β=0.001 . The study design has 432 points spread over 5 factors: occasions (t) , new releases per occasion (u), p, μ , and σ . At each design point 100 independent trials were completed (hence 43,200 trials in total), each with sample size n=10,000 from the parameter posterior distribution. At 128 of these design points comparisons are made to previously reported results from a method of moments procedure. We looked at properties of point and interval inference on μ , and σ based on the posterior mean, median, and mode and equal-tailed 95% credibility interval. Bayesian inference did very well for the parameter μ , but under the conditions used here, MCMC inference performance for σ was mixed: poor for sparse data (i.e., only 7 occasions) or σ=0 , but good when there were sufficient data and not small σ .

Distributed collaborative processing in wireless sensor networks with application to target localization and beamforming

Abstract The proliferation of wireless sensor networks and the variety of envisioned applications associated with them has motivated the development of distributed algorithms for collaborative processing over networked systems. One of the applications that has attracted the attention of the researchers is that of target localization where the nodes of the network try to estimate the position of an unknown target that lies within its coverage area. Particularly challenging is the problem of estimating the target’s position when we use received signal strength indicator (RSSI) due to the nonlinear relationship between the measured signal and the true position of the target. Many of the existing approaches suffer either from high computational complexity (e.g., particle filters) or lack of accuracy. Further, many of the proposed solutions are centralized which make their application to a sensor network questionable. Depending on the application at hand and, from a practical perspective it could be convenient to find a balance between localization accuracy and complexity. Into this direction we approach the maximum likelihood location estimation problem by solving a suboptimal (and more tractable) problem. One of the main advantages of the proposed scheme is that it allows for a decentralized implementation using distributed processing tools (e.g., consensus and convex optimization) and therefore, it is very suitable to be implemented in real sensor networks. If further accuracy is needed an additional refinement step could be performed around the found solution. Under the assumption of independent noise among the nodes such local search can be done in a fully distributed way using a distributed version of the Gauss-Newton method based on consensus. Regardless of the underlying application or function of the sensor network it is al¬ways necessary to have a mechanism for data reporting. While some approaches use a special kind of nodes (called sink nodes) for data harvesting and forwarding to the outside world, there are however some scenarios where such an approach is impractical or even impossible to deploy. Further, such sink nodes become a bottleneck in terms of traffic flow and power consumption. To overcome these issues instead of using sink nodes for data reporting one could use collaborative beamforming techniques to forward directly the generated data to a base station or gateway to the outside world. In a dis-tributed environment like a sensor network nodes cooperate in order to form a virtual antenna array that can exploit the benefits of multi-antenna communications. In col-laborative beamforming nodes synchronize their phases in order to add constructively at the receiver. Some of the inconveniences associated with collaborative beamforming techniques is that there is no control over the radiation pattern since it is treated as a random quantity. This may cause interference to other coexisting systems and fast bat-tery depletion at the nodes. Since energy-efficiency is a major design issue we consider the development of a distributed collaborative beamforming scheme that maximizes the network lifetime while meeting some quality of service (QoS) requirement at the re¬ceiver side. Using local information about battery status and channel conditions we find distributed algorithms that converge to the optimal centralized beamformer. While in the first part we consider only battery depletion due to communications beamforming, we extend the model to account for more realistic scenarios by the introduction of an additional random energy consumption. It is shown how the new problem generalizes the original one and under which conditions it is easily solvable. By formulating the problem under the energy-efficiency perspective the network’s lifetime is significantly improved. Resumen La proliferación de las redes inalámbricas de sensores junto con la gran variedad de posi¬bles aplicaciones relacionadas, han motivado el desarrollo de herramientas y algoritmos necesarios para el procesado cooperativo en sistemas distribuidos. Una de las aplicaciones que suscitado mayor interés entre la comunidad científica es la de localization, donde el conjunto de nodos de la red intenta estimar la posición de un blanco localizado dentro de su área de cobertura. El problema de la localization es especialmente desafiante cuando se usan niveles de energía de la seal recibida (RSSI por sus siglas en inglés) como medida para la localization. El principal inconveniente reside en el hecho que el nivel de señal recibida no sigue una relación lineal con la posición del blanco. Muchas de las soluciones actuales al problema de localization usando RSSI se basan en complejos esquemas centralizados como filtros de partículas, mientas que en otras se basan en esquemas mucho más simples pero con menor precisión. Además, en muchos casos las estrategias son centralizadas lo que resulta poco prácticos para su implementación en redes de sensores. Desde un punto de vista práctico y de implementation, es conveniente, para ciertos escenarios y aplicaciones, el desarrollo de alternativas que ofrezcan un compromiso entre complejidad y precisión. En esta línea, en lugar de abordar directamente el problema de la estimación de la posición del blanco bajo el criterio de máxima verosimilitud, proponemos usar una formulación subóptima del problema más manejable analíticamente y que ofrece la ventaja de permitir en¬contrar la solución al problema de localization de una forma totalmente distribuida, convirtiéndola así en una solución atractiva dentro del contexto de redes inalámbricas de sensores. Para ello, se usan herramientas de procesado distribuido como los algorit¬mos de consenso y de optimización convexa en sistemas distribuidos. Para aplicaciones donde se requiera de un mayor grado de precisión se propone una estrategia que con¬siste en la optimización local de la función de verosimilitud entorno a la estimación inicialmente obtenida. Esta optimización se puede realizar de forma descentralizada usando una versión basada en consenso del método de Gauss-Newton siempre y cuando asumamos independencia de los ruidos de medida en los diferentes nodos. Independientemente de la aplicación subyacente de la red de sensores, es necesario tener un mecanismo que permita recopilar los datos provenientes de la red de sensores. Una forma de hacerlo es mediante el uso de uno o varios nodos especiales, llamados nodos “sumidero”, (sink en inglés) que actúen como centros recolectores de información y que estarán equipados con hardware adicional que les permita la interacción con el exterior de la red. La principal desventaja de esta estrategia es que dichos nodos se convierten en cuellos de botella en cuanto a tráfico y capacidad de cálculo. Como alter¬nativa se pueden usar técnicas cooperativas de conformación de haz (beamforming en inglés) de manera que el conjunto de la red puede verse como un único sistema virtual de múltiples antenas y, por tanto, que exploten los beneficios que ofrecen las comu¬nicaciones con múltiples antenas. Para ello, los distintos nodos de la red sincronizan sus transmisiones de manera que se produce una interferencia constructiva en el recep¬tor. No obstante, las actuales técnicas se basan en resultados promedios y asintóticos, cuando el número de nodos es muy grande. Para una configuración específica se pierde el control sobre el diagrama de radiación causando posibles interferencias sobre sis¬temas coexistentes o gastando más potencia de la requerida. La eficiencia energética es una cuestión capital en las redes inalámbricas de sensores ya que los nodos están equipados con baterías. Es por tanto muy importante preservar la batería evitando cambios innecesarios y el consecuente aumento de costes. Bajo estas consideraciones, se propone un esquema de conformación de haz que maximice el tiempo de vida útil de la red, entendiendo como tal el máximo tiempo que la red puede estar operativa garantizando unos requisitos de calidad de servicio (QoS por sus siglas en inglés) que permitan una decodificación fiable de la señal recibida en la estación base. Se proponen además algoritmos distribuidos que convergen a la solución centralizada. Inicialmente se considera que la única causa de consumo energético se debe a las comunicaciones con la estación base. Este modelo de consumo energético es modificado para tener en cuenta otras formas de consumo de energía derivadas de procesos inherentes al funcionamiento de la red como la adquisición y procesado de datos, las comunicaciones locales entre nodos, etc. Dicho consumo adicional de energía se modela como una variable aleatoria en cada nodo. Se cambia por tanto, a un escenario probabilístico que generaliza el caso determinista y se proporcionan condiciones bajo las cuales el problema se puede resolver de forma eficiente. Se demuestra que el tiempo de vida de la red mejora de forma significativa usando el criterio propuesto de eficiencia energética.

Regularized model learning in EDAs for continuous and multi-objective optimization

Probabilistic modeling is the de�ning characteristic of estimation of distribution algorithms (EDAs) which determines their behavior and performance in optimization. Regularization is a well-known statistical technique used for obtaining an improved model by reducing the generalization error of estimation, especially in high-dimensional problems. `1-regularization is a type of this technique with the appealing variable selection property which results in sparse model estimations. In this thesis, we study the use of regularization techniques for model learning in EDAs. Several methods for regularized model estimation in continuous domains based on a Gaussian distribution assumption are presented, and analyzed from di�erent aspects when used for optimization in a high-dimensional setting, where the population size of EDA has a logarithmic scale with respect to the number of variables. The optimization results obtained for a number of continuous problems with an increasing number of variables show that the proposed EDA based on regularized model estimation performs a more robust optimization, and is able to achieve signi�cantly better results for larger dimensions than other Gaussian-based EDAs. We also propose a method for learning a marginally factorized Gaussian Markov random �eld model using regularization techniques and a clustering algorithm. The experimental results show notable optimization performance on continuous additively decomposable problems when using this model estimation method. Our study also covers multi-objective optimization and we propose joint probabilistic modeling of variables and objectives in EDAs based on Bayesian networks, speci�cally models inspired from multi-dimensional Bayesian network classi�ers. It is shown that with this approach to modeling, two new types of relationships are encoded in the estimated models in addition to the variable relationships captured in other EDAs: objectivevariable and objective-objective relationships. An extensive experimental study shows the e�ectiveness of this approach for multi- and many-objective optimization. With the proposed joint variable-objective modeling, in addition to the Pareto set approximation, the algorithm is also able to obtain an estimation of the multi-objective problem structure. Finally, the study of multi-objective optimization based on joint probabilistic modeling is extended to noisy domains, where the noise in objective values is represented by intervals. A new version of the Pareto dominance relation for ordering the solutions in these problems, namely �-degree Pareto dominance, is introduced and its properties are analyzed. We show that the ranking methods based on this dominance relation can result in competitive performance of EDAs with respect to the quality of the approximated Pareto sets. This dominance relation is then used together with a method for joint probabilistic modeling based on `1-regularization for multi-objective feature subset selection in classi�cation, where six di�erent measures of accuracy are considered as objectives with interval values. The individual assessment of the proposed joint probabilistic modeling and solution ranking methods on datasets with small-medium dimensionality, when using two di�erent Bayesian classi�ers, shows that comparable or better Pareto sets of feature subsets are approximated in comparison to standard methods.

Assessment of urban parameterizations in the WRF model for air quality modelling purposes in Madrid (Spain)

This study aims to assess the performance or multi-layer canopy parameterizations implemented in the mesoscale WRF model in order to understand their potential contribution to improve the description of energy fluxes and wind fields in the Madrid city. It was found that the Building Energy Model (BEP+BEM) parameterization yielded better results than the bulk standard scheme implemented in the Noah LSM, but very close to those of the Building Energy Parameterization (BEP). The later was deemed as the best option since data requirements and CPU time were smaller. Two annual runs were made to feed the CMAQ chemical-transport model to assess the impact of this feature in routinely air quality modelling activities.

Testing the niche apportionment hypothesis with parasite communities: is random assortment always the rule?

Niche apportionment models have only been applied once to parasite communities. Only the random assortment model (RA), which indicates that species abundances are independent from each other and that interspecific competition is unimportant, provided a good fit to 3 out of 6 parasite communities investigated. The generality of this result needs to be validated, however. In this study we apply 5 niche apportionment models to the parasite communities of 14 fish species from the Great Barrier Reef. We determined which model fitted the data when using either numerical abundance or biomass as an estimate of parasite abundance, and whether the fit of niche apportionment models depends on how the parasite community is defined (e.g. ecto, endoparasites or all parasites considered together). The RA model provided a good fit for the whole community of parasites in 7 fish species when using biovolume (as a surrogate of biomass) as a measure of species abundance. The RA model also fitted observed data when ecto- and endoparasites were considered separately, using abundance or biovolume, but less frequently. Variation in fish sizes among species was not associated with the probability of a model fitting the data. Total numerical abundance and biovolume of parasites were not related across host species, suggesting that they capture different aspects of abundance. Biovolume is not only a better measurement to use with niche-orientated models, it should also be the preferred descriptor to analyse parasite community structure in other contexts. Most of the biological assumptions behind the RA model, i.e. randomness in apportioning niche space, lack of interspecific competition, independence of abundance among different species, and species with variable niches in changeable environments, are in accordance with some previous findings on parasite communities. Thus, parasite communities may generally be unsaturated with species, with empty niches, and interspecific interactions may generally be unimportant in determining parasite community structure.

Statnote 30 : The one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA):fixed effects model

In Statnote 9, we described a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) ‘random effects’ model in which the objective was to estimate the degree of variation of a particular measurement and to compare different sources of variation in space and time. The illustrative scenario involved the role of computer keyboards in a University communal computer laboratory as a possible source of microbial contamination of the hands. The study estimated the aerobic colony count of ten selected keyboards with samples taken from two keys per keyboard determined at 9am and 5pm. This type of design is often referred to as a ‘nested’ or ‘hierarchical’ design and the ANOVA estimated the degree of variation: (1) between keyboards, (2) between keys within a keyboard, and (3) between sample times within a key. An alternative to this design is a 'fixed effects' model in which the objective is not to measure sources of variation per se but to estimate differences between specific groups or treatments, which are regarded as 'fixed' or discrete effects. This statnote describes two scenarios utilizing this type of analysis: (1) measuring the degree of bacterial contamination on 2p coins collected from three types of business property, viz., a butcher’s shop, a sandwich shop, and a newsagent and (2) the effectiveness of drugs in the treatment of a fungal eye infection.

Evolution, recurrency and kernels in learning to model inflation

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. We use non-linear, artificial intelligence techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks, evolution strategies and kernel methods in our forecasting experiment. In the experiment, these three methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation. There is evidence in the literature that evolutionary methods can be used to evolve kernels hence our future work should combine the evolutionary and kernel methods to get the benefits of both.

Thermal processing of miscanthus, sugarcane bagasse, sugarcane trash and their acid hydrolysis residues

The research presented in this thesis was developed as part of DIBANET, an EC funded project aiming to develop an energetically self-sustainable process for the production of diesel miscible biofuels (i.e. ethyl levulinate) via acid hydrolysis of selected biomass feedstocks. Three thermal conversion technologies, pyrolysis, gasification and combustion, were evaluated in the present work with the aim of recovering the energy stored in the acid hydrolysis solid residue (AHR). Mainly consisting of lignin and humins, the AHR can contain up to 80% of the energy in the original feedstock. Pyrolysis of AHR proved unsatisfactory, so attention focussed on gasification and combustion with the aim of producing heat and/or power to supply the energy demanded by the ethyl levulinate production process. A thermal processing rig consisting on a Laminar Entrained Flow Reactor (LEFR) equipped with solid and liquid collection and online gas analysis systems was designed and built to explore pyrolysis, gasification and air-blown combustion of AHR. Maximum liquid yield for pyrolysis of AHR was 30wt% with volatile conversion of 80%. Gas yield for AHR gasification was 78wt%, with 8wt% tar yields and conversion of volatiles close to 100%. 90wt% of the AHR was transformed into gas by combustion, with volatile conversions above 90%. 5volO2%-95vol%N2 gasification resulted in a nitrogen diluted, low heating value gas (2MJ/m3). Steam and oxygen-blown gasification of AHR were additionally investigated in a batch gasifier at KTH in Sweden. Steam promoted the formation of hydrogen (25vol%) and methane (14vol%) improving the gas heating value to 10MJ/m3, below the typical for steam gasification due to equipment limitations. Arrhenius kinetic parameters were calculated using data collected with the LEFR to provide reaction rate information for process design and optimisation. Activation energy (EA) and pre-exponential factor (ko in s-1) for pyrolysis (EA=80kJ/mol, lnko=14), gasification (EA=69kJ/mol, lnko=13) and combustion (EA=42kJ/mol, lnko=8) were calculated after linearly fitting the data using the random pore model. Kinetic parameters for pyrolysis and combustion were also determined by dynamic thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), including studies of the original biomass feedstocks for comparison. Results obtained by differential and integral isoconversional methods for activation energy determination were compared. Activation energy calculated by the Vyazovkin method was 103-204kJ/mol for pyrolysis of untreated feedstocks and 185-387kJ/mol for AHRs. Combustion activation energy was 138-163kJ/mol for biomass and 119-158 for AHRs. The non-linear least squares method was used to determine reaction model and pre-exponential factor. Pyrolysis and combustion of biomass were best modelled by a combination of third order reaction and 3 dimensional diffusion models, while AHR decomposed following the third order reaction for pyrolysis and the 3 dimensional diffusion for combustion.

On Multi-Dimensional Random Walk Models Approximating Symmetric Space-Fractional Diffusion Processes

Mathematics Subject Classification: 26A33, 47B06, 47G30, 60G50, 60G52, 60G60.

Parameterized Link Functions in Generalized Linear Random Effect Models: a Case Study on Breast Cancer Treatment

In non-linear random effects some attention has been very recently devoted to the analysis ofsuitable transformation of the response variables separately (Taylor 1996) or not (Oberg and Davidian 2000) from the transformations of the covariates and, as far as we know, no investigation has been carried out on the choice of link function in such models. In our study we consider the use of a random effect model when a parameterized family of links (Aranda-Ordaz 1981, Prentice 1996, Pregibon 1980, Stukel 1988 and Czado 1997) is introduced. We point out the advantages and the drawbacks associated with the choice of this data-driven kind of modeling. Difficulties in the interpretation of regression parameters, and therefore in understanding the influence of covariates, as well as problems related to loss of efficiency of estimates and overfitting, are discussed. A case study on radiotherapy usage in breast cancer treatment is discussed.

Energy-efficient multihop cooperative MISO transmission with optimal hop distance in wireless ad hoc networks

In this paper, we investigate the hop distance optimization problem in ad hoc networks where cooperative multiinput- single-output (MISO) is adopted to improve the energy efficiency of the network. We first establish the energy model of multihop cooperative MISO transmission. Based on the model, the energy consumption per bit of the network with high node density is minimized numerically by finding an optimal hop distance, and, to get the global minimum energy consumption, both hop distance and the number of cooperating nodes around each relay node for multihop transmission are jointly optimized. We also compare the performance between multihop cooperative MISO transmission and single-input-single-output (SISO) transmission, under the same network condition (high node density). We show that cooperative MISO transmission could be energyinefficient compared with SISO transmission when the path-loss exponent becomes high. We then extend our investigation to the networks with varied node densities and show the effectiveness of the joint optimization method in this scenario using simulation results. It is shown that the optimal results depend on network conditions such as node density and path-loss exponent, and the simulation results are closely matched to those obtained using the numerical models for high node density cases.