Mobility, information, and bequest : the other side of the equal division puzzle

There is substantial empirical evidence that parental bequests to their children are typically equal in the US – a regularity inconsistent with the predictions of standard optimizing bequest models. The prior explanation for this puzzle is parents’ desire to signal equal affection given children’s incomplete information of parental preferences. However, parents also have incomplete information regarding children and the implications of this side of the information set have not previously been considered. Using a strategic bequest framework we show that when parents have sufficient uncertainty regarding children’s returns to relocation a separating equilibrium in which parents reward attentive heirs with larger bequests is precluded. We argue that such uncertainty is consistent with conditions in the contemporary US.

Using a panel structure to discuss the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in developing countries

The purpose of this paper is to test the implications of current account solvency for the savinginvestment correlation in developing countries. Since solvency is a long-run phenomenon, and given that the power of the standard unit root and cointegration tests is low, we exploit the panel structure of the sample of 29 developing countries. We find evidence that saving and investment are cointegrated and that the current account is stationary. Therefore, the Feldstein-Horioka correlations are not a puzzle in the sense they reflect the intertemporal budget constraint. The same results are obtained for different subsamples (Africa, Asia, and Latin America) and for different periods of time (1960-74 and 1975-96). We, then, suggest that an error correction model should distinguish between the long-run correlation, which reflects the solvency condition, and the short-run correlation, which could measure capital mobility.

The equity premium puzzle: um estudo de viés de seleção dos ativos

As empresas de capital aberto, listadas em bolsa de valores, são naturalmente aquelas que vieram apresentando retornos superiores perante às demais empresas do seu setor. Assim, será que o viés de seleção desses ativos in uencia sigini cativamente no resultado do Equity Premium Puzzle, primordialmente lançado por Mehra and Prescott (1985)? É essa pergunta que este trabalho investiga e conclui que, sim, de fato pode haver uma in uência desse viés em explicar o Puzzle . Para isso, iremos gerar uma economia cujos ativos, por hipótese, sejam preci cados de acordo com o fator estocástico de desconto (SDF) baseado em consumo, ou seja, os modelos conhecidos como CCAPM (Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model). Assim, essa economia será gerada via simulação de Monte Carlo, de forma que iremos construir um índice benchmark dessa economia, nos quais participariam apenas os ativos que foram historicamente mais rentáveis. Adota-se tal metodologia em paralelo à forma como os reais benchmarks são construidos (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Ibovespa), em que neles participam, basicamente, as empresas de capital aberta mais negociadas em Bolsa de Valores, que são, comumente, as empresas historicamente mais rentáveis da economia. Em sequência, iremos realizar a estimação via GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) de um dos parâmetros de interesse de uma economia CCAPM: o coe ciente de aversão relativa ao risco (CRRA). Finalmente, os resultados obtidos são comparados e analisados quanto ao viés de estimação.

Puzzle Pirata

Ilustração componente do jogo “Musikinésia (http://www.loa.sead.ufscar.br/musikinesia.php)” desenvolvido pela equipe do Laboratório de Objetos de Aprendizagem da Universidade Federal de São Carlos (LOA/UFSCar).

Conservation puzzle: Endangered hyacinth macaw depends on its nest predator for reproduction

In the Pantanal wetlands of Central Brazil, the endangered hyacinth macaw (Anodorhynchus hyacinthinus), the largest psitacid in the world, makes its nest almost exclusively in natural hollows found in the manduvi tree (Sterculia apetala). The recruitment of manduvis greatly depends on the seed dispersal services provided by the toco toucan (Ramphastos toco), responsible for 83.3% of the seed dispersal. The toco toucan, however, is responsible for about 53% of the preyed eggs, resulting in a case of conflicting ecological pressures in which the reproduction of the hyacinth macaw is indirectly dependent on the seed dispersal services of its nest predator. The case illustrates the intricacies of biotic interactions in species-rich environments where species may be tied by indirect, subtle ecological links which conservationists should be aware of. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

COMMENT ON THE TAU DECAY PUZZLE

We analyse the current data on tau-lepton decays and show that they are consistent with the standard model.

Systematics of spiny-backed treefrogs (Hylidae: Osteocephalus): An Amazonian puzzle

Spiny-backed tree frogs of the genus Osteocephalus are conspicuous components of the tropical wet forests of the Amazon and the Guiana Shield. Here, we revise the phylogenetic relationships of Osteocephalus and its sister group Tepuihyla, using up to 6134 bp of DNA sequences of nine mitochondrial and one nuclear gene for 338 specimens from eight countries and 218 localities, representing 89% of the 28 currently recognized nominal species. Our phylogenetic analyses reveal (i) the paraphyly of Osteocephalus with respect to Tepuihyla, (ii) the placement of 'Hyla' warreni as sister to Tepuihyla, (iii) the non-monophyly of several currently recognized species within Osteocephalus and (iv) the presence of low (<1%) and overlapping genetic distances among phenotypically well-characterized nominal species (e.g. O. taurinus and O. oophagus) for the 16S gene fragment used in amphibian DNA barcoding. We propose a new taxonomy, securing the monophyly of Osteocephalus and Tepuihyla by rearranging and redefining the content of both genera and also erect a new genus for the sister group of Osteocephalus. The colouration of newly metamorphosed individuals is proposed as a morphological synapomorphy for Osteocephalus. We recognize and define five monophyletic species groups within Osteocephalus, synonymize three species of Osteocephalus (O. germani, O. phasmatus and O. vilmae) and three species of Tepuihyla (T. celsae, T. galani and T. talbergae) and reallocate three species (Hyla helenae to Osteocephalus, O. exophthalmus to Tepuihyla and O. pearsoni to Dryaderces gen. n.). Furthermore, we flag nine putative new species (an increase to 138% of the current diversity). We conclude that species numbers are largely underestimated, with most hidden diversity centred on widespread and polymorphic nominal species. The evolutionary origin of breeding strategies within Osteocephalus is discussed in the light of this new phylogenetic hypothesis, and a novel type of amplexus (gular amplexus) is described. © 2013 The Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters.

The complex urban freight puzzle

This issue of the FAL Bulletin shows why urban logistics is a relevant topic in the discussion of urbanization and provides arguments why the last-mile should be included in policies on sustainable mobility in the region. It also delivers insights and arguments how a modern perception of the cargo bike and its inclusion in sustainable logistics policy can deliver towards more sustainable urban logistics development.

The puzzle assembled: Ediacaran guide fossil Cloudina reveals an old proto-Gondwana seaway

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Gastrotricha: A Marine Sister for a Freshwater Puzzle

Background: Within an evolutionary framework of Gastrotricha Marinellina flagellata and Redudasys fornerise bear special interest, as they are the only Macrodasyida that inhabit freshwater ecosystems. Notwithstanding, these rare animals are poorly known; found only once (Austria and Brazil), they are currently systematised as incertae sedis. Here we report on the rediscovery of Redudasys fornerise, provide an account on morphological novelties and present a hypothesis on its phylogenetic relationship based on molecular data. Methodology/Principal Findings: Specimens were surveyed using DIC microscopy and SEM, and used to obtain the 18 S rRNA gene sequence; molecular data was analyzed cladistically in conjunction with data from 42 additional species belonging to the near complete Macrodasyida taxonomic spectrum. Morphological analysis, while providing new information on taxonomically relevant traits (adhesive tubes, protonephridia and sensorial bristles), failed to detect elements of the male system, thus stressing the parthenogenetic nature of the Brazilian species. Phylogenetic analysis, carried out with ML, MP and Bayesian approaches, yielded topologies with strong nodal support and highly congruent with each other. Among the supported groups is the previously undocumented clade showing the alliance between Redudasys fornerise and Dactylopodola agadasys; other strongly sustained clades include the densely sampled families Thaumastodermatidae and Turbanellidae and most genera. Conclusions/Significance: A reconsideration of the morphological traits of Dactylopodola agadasys in light of the new information on Redudasys fornerise makes the alliance between these two taxa very likely. As a result, we create Anandrodasys gen. nov. to contain members of the previously described D. agadasys and erect Redudasyidae fam. nov. to reflect this novel relationship between Anandrodasys and Redudasys. From an ecological perspective, the derived position of Redudasys, which is deeply nested within the Macrodasyida clade, unequivocally demonstrates that invasion of freshwater by gastrotrichs has taken place at least twice, in contrast with the single event hypothesis recently put forward.

The Incumbent Spending Puzzle

Objective This article seeks to explain the puzzle of why incumbents spend so much on campaigns despite most research finding that their spending has almost no effect on voters. Methods The article uses ordinary least squares, instrumental variables, and fixed-effects regression to estimate the impact of incumbent spending on election outcomes. The estimation includes an interaction term between incumbent and challenger spending to allow the effect of incumbent spending to depend on the level of challenger spending. Results The estimation provides strong evidence that spending by the incumbent has a larger positive impact on votes received the more money the challenger spends. Conclusion Campaign spending by incumbents is most valuable in the races where the incumbent faces a serious challenge. Raising large sums of money to be used in close races is thus a rational choice by incumbents.