Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation

We consider whether survey respondents’ probability distributions, reported as histograms, provide reliable and coherent point predictions, when viewed through the lens of a Bayesian learning model. We argue that a role remains for eliciting directly-reported point predictions in surveys of professional forecasters.

Sustaining growth and profits in a rapidly changing world - a Chinese perspective

The aim of this paper is to stimulate discussion about how Chinese construction and professional service companies can best equip themselves and grow sustainably and profitably in a rapidly changing world. It identifies some of the issues and risks faced by Chinese construction and professional service companies operating domestically and overseas. China has experienced a period of rapid economic growth which is also reflected in the annual construction output. China’s population is the largest in the world, but the demographic profile is changing with an ageing population and a changing dependency ratio. The population is urbanising at a fast rate, putting pressure on housing, and infrastructure. The government must plan for the future and the construction sector must be involved in that planning. The paper considers the drivers shaping China’s construction market, how companies are responding by embracing change and internationalising by seeking to exploit their skills overseas. The drivers are globalisation, urbanisation, demographic change, sustainability, safety and health, and the evolution of professional services as a core part of construction activity. Clients/owners are driving change by demanding more certainty and more sustainable projects.

The dilemma of scope and scale for construction professional service firms

Construction professional service (CPS) firms sell expertise and provide innovative solutions for projects founded on their knowledge, experience, and technical competences. Large CPS firms seeking to grow will often seek new opportunities in their domestic market and overseas by organic or inorganic growth through mergers, alliances, and acquisitions. Growth can also come from increasing market penetration through vertical, horizontal, and lateral diversification. Such growth, hopefully, leads to economies of scope and scale in the long term, but it can also lead to diseconomies, when the added cost of integration and the increased complexity of diversification no longer create tangible and intangible benefits. The aim of this research is to investigate the key influences impacting on the growth in scope and scale for large CPS firms. Qualitative data from the interviews were underpinned by secondary data from CPS firms’ annual reports and analysts’ findings. The findings showed five key influences on the scope and scale of a CPS firm: the importance of growth as a driver; the influence of the ownership of the firm on the decision for growth in scope and scale; the optimization of resources and capabilities; the need to serve changing clients’ needs; and the importance of localization. The research provides valuable insights into the growth strategies of international CPS firms. A major finding of the research is the influence of ownership on CPS firms’ growth strategies which has not been highlighted in previous research.

A modest start, but a steady rise in research use : A longitudinal study of nurses during the first five years in professional life

Background: Newly graduated nurses are faced with a challenging work environment that may impede theirability to provide evidence-based practice. However, little is known about the trajectory of registered nurses’ use ofresearch during the first years of professional life. Thus, the aim of the current study was to prospectively examinethe extent of nurses’ use of research during the first five years after undergraduate education and specifically assesschanges over time.Method: Survey data from a prospective cohort of 1,501 Swedish newly graduated nurses within the nationalLANE study (Longitudinal Analyses of Nursing Education and Entry in Worklife) were used to investigate perceiveduse of research over the first five years as a nurse. The dependent variables consisted of three single itemsassessing instrumental, conceptual, and persuasive research use, where the nurses rated their use on a five-pointscale, from ‘never’ (1) to ‘on almost every shift’ (5). These data were collected annually and analyzed bothdescriptively and by longitudinal growth curve analysis.Results: Instrumental use of research was most frequently reported, closely followed by conceptual use, withpersuasive use occurring to a considerably lower extent. The development over time showed a substantial generalupward trend, which was most apparent for conceptual use, increasing from a mean of 2.6 at year one to 3.6 atyear five (unstandardized slope +0.25). However, the descriptive findings indicated that the increase started onlyafter the second year. Instrumental use had a year one mean of 2.8 and a year five mean of 3.5 (unstandardizedslope +0.19), and persuasive use showed a year one mean of 1.7 and a year five mean of 2.0 (unstandardized slope+0.09).Conclusion: There was a clear trend of increasing research use by nurses during their first five years of practice.The level of the initial ratings also indicated the level of research use in subsequent years. However, it took morethan two years of professional development before this increase ‘kicked in.’ These findings support previousresearch claiming that newly graduated nurses go through a ‘transition shock,’ reducing their ability to useresearch findings in clinical work.

Growth and distribution: a revised classical model

This paper discusses distribution and the historical phases of capitalism. It assumes that technical progress and growth are taking place, and, given that, its question is on the functional distribution of income between labor and capital, having as reference classical theory of distribution and Marx’s falling tendency of the rate of profit. Based on the historical experience, it, first, inverts the model, making the rate of profit as the constant variable in the long run and the wage rate, as the residuum; second, it distinguishes three types of technical progress (capital-saving, neutral and capital-using) and applies it to the history of capitalism, having the UK and France as reference. Given these three types of technical progress, it distinguishes four phases of capitalist growth, where only the second is consistent with Marx prediction. The last phase, after World War II, should be, in principle, capital-saving, consistent with growth of wages above productivity. Instead, since the 1970s wages were kept stagnant in rich countries because of, first, the fact that the Information and Communication Technology Revolution proved to be highly capital using, opening room for a new wage of substitution of capital for labor; second, the new competition coming from developing countries; third, the emergence of the technobureaucratic or professional class; and, fourth, the new power of the neoliberal class coalition associating rentier capitalists and financiers

Trade and economic growth: a Latin American perspective on rhetoric and reality

Incluye Bibliografía

Upgrading value chains through professional and supporting services: Lessons from three agro-industry chains in El Salvador and Guatemala

Includes bibliography

The politics of professional sports facility subsidies in Florida

Political leaders in urban settings regularly confront difficult decisions over how to distribute public funds. Those decisions may be even more controversial when they involve public subsidies of professional sports facilities. Yet, state and local governments in the United States have granted billions of dollars in financial and land-based subsidies for professional sports facilities over the past two decades, raising questions about how these types of corporate welfare decisions are made by local leaders. Scholarship on urban politics and community power suggests a number of theories to explain political influence. They include elitism, pluralism, political economy and growth machines, urban regimes, coalition theory, and minority empowerment. My hypothesis is that coalition theory, a theory that argues that public policy decisions are made by shifting, ad hoc alliances within a community, best describes these subsidy decisions. ^ To test this hypothesis I employ a public policy process model and develop a framework of variables that is used to methodically examine four sports facilities funding decisions in two Florida counties between 1977 and 1998: Joe Robbie Stadium and the American Airlines Arena in Miami-Dade, and the Ice Palace Arena and the Raymond James Stadium in Hillsborough County. The framework includes six variables that permit a rigorous examination of the actors involved in the decision, their interactions, and the political environment within which they operate. The variables are formal political structure, informal sector, subsidy proponents, subsidy opponents, public policy options, and public opinion. ^ This research rests on qualitative data gathered from interviews of public and private officials involved in subsidy decisions, public records, and media reports Employing a case study analysis, I offer a rich description of the decision making process to publicly fund sports stadiums and arenas in Florida. My findings confirm that the best theory to explain decisions to subsidize sports facilities is one in which short-term, temporary coalitions are formed to accomplish policy goals. ^

Middle school teachers' intentions to refer eating disorder students for professional counseling

Eating disorders can lead to a negative impact on students' academic growth, nutrition and can cause death (Claude-Pierre, 1997; Manley, Rickson, & Standeven, 2000; Romeo, 1996). Early intervention by referring students to professional counseling might help counter these negative consequences. The teacher is in the position to assist students by providing health information, identifying those with problems, and intervening for a variety of dysfunctions that may include the eating disorders called anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa (Myers-Clark & Christopher, 2000). However teachers are in a difficult position to know when to address student concerns and judge what action to take (Ransley, 1999). Teachers' engagement seems crucial (Smolak, Harris, Levine, & Shisslak, 2001) since eating disorders are being identified in younger children. The purpose of this study was to examine (a) the relationships of the theoretical constructs, attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control of the theory of planned behavior as predictors of behavioral intention (Ajzen & Fishbein, 1980) of middle school teachers to identify and refer suspected anorexia nervosa (AN) and/or bulimia nervosa (BN) students for professional help; and (b) the actual behavior of middle school teachers who reported having ever referred a student suspected of having AN and BN and those teachers who reported not having made such a referral. One hundred fourteen middle school teachers in Broward County, Florida volunteered to participate in the ex post facto research. Data were collected from a questionnaire. Multiple regression analysis revealed that the constructs of subjective norm (perception of what others think about one's performance of behavior combined with motivation to comply) and perceived behavioral control (perception regarding the extent of the difficulty of performing the behavior) were predictive of teachers' intent (likelihood of engaging in a behavior) to refer. However, the analysis revealed that attitude (overall positive or negative feeling with respect to performing the behavior) was not predictive of teachers' intent. Discriminant function analysis revealed that both intent and perceived behavioral control were predictive of group membership, either having referred a student suspected of having an eating disorder for counseling or not having made such a referral. Attitude and subjective norm were not predictive of group membership.

Towards Empowerment: Narrative Study of Counselling Psychology Trainees and How They Make Sense of Their Personal and Professional Development in the Context of Their Past Experiences

The discipline of counselling psychology continues to grow and change in response to social, economic and political pressures. It has been argued that its quest for a coherent and distinct identity, which emphasises the possibility of the coexistence of multiple approaches, creates an inherently uncertain and dilemmatic training environment that may hinder the development of trainees’ professional identities. In order to gain a deeper understanding of the issue at hand, the aim was to explore how final year trainees and newly qualified counselling psychologists constructed and made sense of their emerging professional identities and what experiences, past and present, they drew upon in the context of their training to shape those identities. Applying narrative inquiry to analyse eight open-ended interviews, eight preliminary themes were originally identified in participants’ narratives, which with further refinements lead to stories of struggle and marginalisation, growth and discovery, and power and resilience. Participants’ stories of struggle and marginalisation emerged in reference to early family dynamics and stressful life experiences, which seemed to also foster a strong identification with the counselling psychology profession, while stories of growth and discovery focused on the importance of having supportive figures, who helped to instill a sense of security and create an atmosphere of openness. It was in this learning environment that participants felt it was possible to develop a more resilient, empowered professional self, which allowed them to shed an earlier sense of struggle and vulnerability. However, where more of an emphasis was placed on power and resilience, there seemed to be less room for participants to express other feelings that came into conflict with their preferred sense of professional self. While there seems to be a need for a ‘safer’ climate, in which trainees could voice and acknowledge anxieties, vulnerabilities and limitations, addressing concerns around power and vulnerability that may be contributing to the silencing of particular voices and identities may be equally important if trainees are to develop coherent and distinct counselling psychologist identities.

School leaders as both colonized and colonizers: understanding professional identity in an era of no child left behind

This study positioned the federal No Child Left Behind (NCLB) Act of 2002 as a reified colonizing entity, inscribing its hegemonic authority upon the professional identity and work of school principals within their school communities of practice. Pressure on educators and students intensifies each year as the benchmark for Adequate Yearly Progress under the NCLB policy is raised, resulting in standards-based reform, scripted curriculum and pedagogy, absence of elective subjects, and a general lack of autonomy critical to the work of teachers as they approach each unique class and student (Crocco & Costigan, 2007; Mabry & Margolis, 2006). Emphasis on high stakes standardized testing as the indicator for student achievement (Popham, 2005) affects educators’ professional identity through dramatic pedagological and structural changes in schools (Day, Flores, & Viana, 2007). These dramatic changes to the ways our nation conducts schooling must be understood and thought about critically from school leaders’ perspectives as their professional identity is influenced by large scale NCLB school reform. The author explored the impact No Child Left Behind reform had on the professional identity of fourteen, veteran Illinois principals leading in urban, small urban, suburban, and rural middle and elementary schools. Qualitative data were collected during semi-structured interviews and focus groups and analyzed using a dual theoretical framework of postcolonial and identity theories. Postcolonial theory provided a lens from which the author applied a metaphor of colonization to principals’ experiences as colonized-colonizers in a time of school reform. Principal interview data illustrated many examples of NCLB as a colonizing authority having a significant impact on the professional identity of school leaders. This framework was used to interpret data in a unique and alternative way and contributed to the need to better understand the ways school leaders respond to district-level, state-level, and national-level accountability policies (Sloan, 2000). Identity theory situated principals as professionals shaped by the communities of practice in which they lead. Principals’ professional identity has become more data-driven as a result of NCLB and their role as instructional leaders has intensified. The data showed that NCLB has changed the work and professional identity of principals in terms of use of data, classroom instruction, Response to Intervention, and staffing changes. Although NCLB defines success in terms of meeting or exceeding the benchmark for Adequate Yearly Progress, principals’ view AYP as only one measurement of their success. The need to meet the benchmark for AYP is a present reality that necessitates school-wide attention to reading and math achievement. At this time, principals leading in affluent, somewhat homogeneous schools typically experience less pressure and more power under NCLB and are more often labeled “successful” school communities. In contrast, principals leading in schools with more heterogeneity experience more pressure and lack of power under NCLB and are more often labeled “failing” school communities. Implications from this study for practitioners and policymakers include a need to reexamine the intents and outcomes of the policy for all school communities, especially in terms of power and voice. Recommendations for policy reform include moving to a growth model with multi-year assessments that make sense for individual students rather than one standardized test score as the measure for achievement. Overall, the study reveals enhancements and constraints NCLB policy has caused in a variety of school contexts, which have affected the professional identity of school leaders.

Socio-economic status, growth, physical activity and fitness: the Madeira growth study

Within a country social conditions change over time and these conditions vary from country to country. The associations between these conditions, somatic growth, physical activity and fitness reflect these changes. Aim: The study documented variation in somatic growth, physical activity and fitness associated with socio-economic status (SES). Subjects and methods: The study involved 507 subjects (256 boys and 251 girls) from the Madeira Growth Study, a mixed longitudinal study of five cohorts (8, 10, 12, 14 and 16 years of age) followed at yearly intervals over 3 years (1996–1998). A total of 1493 observations were made. Anthropometric measurements included lengths, body mass, skeletal breadths, girths and skinfolds. Physical activity and SES were collected via questionnaire and interview. Physical fitness was assessed using the Eurofit test battery. Variation in somatic growth, physical activity and physical fitness by SES (high, average and low) was tested with analysis of variance. Results: Significant differences between SES groups were observed for height, body mass and skinfolds. Boys and girls from high SES groups were taller, heavier and fatter (subscapular and triceps skinfolds) than their peers from average and low SES groups. At some age intervals, the high SES group had larger skeletal breadths (girls) and girths (boys and girls) than low SES. Small SES differences were observed for physical activity (sport and leisure-time indices). SES was significantly associated with physical fitness. At some age levels, boys from the low SES group performed better for muscular and aerobic endurance whereas girls from the high SES group performed better for power. Conclusion: Considerable variation in somatic growth and physical fitness in association with SES has been demonstrated, but little association was found for physical activity.

Socio-economic status, growth, physical activity and fitness: the Madeira growth study

Within a country social conditions change over time and these conditions vary from country to country. The associations between these conditions, somatic growth, physical activity and fitness reflect these changes. Aim: The study documented variation in somatic growth, physical activity and fitness associated with socio-economic status (SES). Subjects and methods: The study involved 507 subjects (256 boys and 251 girls) from the Madeira Growth Study, a mixed longitudinal study of five cohorts (8, 10, 12, 14 and 16 years of age) followed at yearly intervals over 3 years (1996–1998). A total of 1493 observations were made. Anthropometric measurements included lengths, body mass, skeletal breadths, girths and skinfolds. Physical activity and SES were collected via questionnaire and interview. Physical fitness was assessed using the Eurofit test battery. Variation in somatic growth, physical activity and physical fitness by SES (high, average and low) was tested with analysis of variance. Results: Significant differences between SES groups were observed for height, body mass and skinfolds. Boys and girls from high SES groups were taller, heavier and fatter (subscapular and triceps skinfolds) than their peers from average and low SES groups. At some age intervals, the high SES group had larger skeletal breadths (girls) and girths (boys and girls) than low SES. Small SES differences were observed for physical activity (sport and leisure-time indices). SES was significantly associated with physical fitness. At some age levels, boys from the low SES group performed better for muscular and aerobic endurance whereas girls from the high SES group performed better for power. Conclusion: Considerable variation in somatic growth and physical fitness in association with SES has been demonstrated, but little association was found for physical activity.

Impaired Compensatory Beta-cell Function And Growth In Response To High-fat Diet In Ldl Receptor Knockout Mice.

In this study, we investigated the effect of low density lipoprotein receptor (LDLr) deficiency on gap junctional connexin 36 (Cx36) islet content and on the functional and growth response of pancreatic beta-cells in C57BL/6 mice fed a high-fat (HF) diet. After 60 days on regular or HF diet, the metabolic state and morphometric islet parameters of wild-type (WT) and LDLr-/- mice were assessed. HF diet-fed WT animals became obese and hypercholesterolaemic as well as hyperglycaemic, hyperinsulinaemic, glucose intolerant and insulin resistant, characterizing them as prediabetic. Also they showed a significant decrease in beta-cell secretory response to glucose. Overall, LDLr-/- mice displayed greater susceptibility to HF diet as judged by their marked cholesterolaemia, intolerance to glucose and pronounced decrease in glucose-stimulated insulin secretion. HF diet induced similarly in WT and LDLr-/- mice, a significant decrease in Cx36 beta-cell content as revealed by immunoblotting. Prediabetic WT mice displayed marked increase in beta-cell mass mainly due to beta-cell hypertrophy/replication. Nevertheless, HF diet-fed LDLr-/- mice showed no significant changes in beta-cell mass, but lower islet-duct association (neogenesis) and higher beta-cell apoptosis index were seen as compared to controls. The higher metabolic susceptibility to HF diet of LDLr-/- mice may be explained by a deficiency in insulin secretory response to glucose associated with lack of compensatory beta-cell expansion.