Understanding the processes governing climate variability and change, climate predictability and the probability of extreme events

The purpose of Research Theme 4 (RT4) was to advance understanding of the basic science issues at the heart of the ENSEMBLES project, focusing on the key processes that govern climate variability and change, and that determine the predictability of climate. Particular attention was given to understanding linear and non-linear feedbacks that may lead to climate surprises,and to understanding the factors that govern the probability of extreme events. Improved understanding of these issues will contribute significantly to the quantification and reduction of uncertainty in seasonal to decadal predictions and projections of climate change. RT4 exploited the ENSEMBLES integrations (stream 1) performed in RT2A as well as undertaking its own experimentation to explore key processes within the climate system. It was working at the cutting edge of problems related to climate feedbacks, the interaction between climate variability and climate change � especially how climate change pertains to extreme events, and the predictability of the climate system on a range of time-scales. The statisticalmethodologies developed for extreme event analysis are new and state-of-the-art. The RT4-coordinated experiments, which have been conducted with six different atmospheric GCMs forced by common timeinvariant sea surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice fields (removing some sources of inter-model variability), are designed to help to understand model uncertainty (rather than scenario or initial condition uncertainty) in predictions of the response to greenhouse-gas-induced warming. RT4 links strongly with RT5 on the evaluation of the ENSEMBLES prediction system and feeds back its results to RT1 to guide improvements in the Earth system models and, through its research on predictability, to steer the development of methods for initialising the ensembles

API-CALC 1.0: a computer program for calculating the average probability of identity allowing for substructure, inbreeding and the presence of close relatives

Individual identification via DNA profiling is important in molecular ecology, particularly in the case of noninvasive sampling. A key quantity in determining the number of loci required is the probability of identity (PIave), the probability of observing two copies of any profile in the population. Previously this has been calculated assuming no inbreeding or population structure. Here we introduce formulae that account for these factors, whilst also accounting for relatedness structure in the population. These formulae are implemented in API-CALC 1.0, which calculates PIave for either a specified value, or a range of values, for F-IS and F-ST.

The solar influence on the probability of relatively cold UK winters in the future

Recent research has suggested that relatively cold UK winters are more common when solar activity is low (Lockwood et al 2010 Environ. Res. Lett. 5 024001). Solar activity during the current sunspot minimum has fallen to levels unknown since the start of the 20th century (Lockwood 2010 Proc. R. Soc. A 466 303–29) and records of past solar variations inferred from cosmogenic isotopes (Abreu et al 2008 Geophys. Res. Lett. 35 L20109) and geomagnetic activity data (Lockwood et al 2009 Astrophys. J. 700 937–44) suggest that the current grand solar maximum is coming to an end and hence that solar activity can be expected to continue to decline. Combining cosmogenic isotope data with the long record of temperatures measured in central England, we estimate how solar change could influence the probability in the future of further UK winters that are cold, relative to the hemispheric mean temperature, if all other factors remain constant. Global warming is taken into account only through the detrending using mean hemispheric temperatures. We show that some predictive skill may be obtained by including the solar effect.

Probability of survival in a random exchange economy with dependent agents

In this paper I analyze the general equilibrium in a random Walrasian economy. Dependence among agents is introduced in the form of dependency neighborhoods. Under the uncertainty, an agent may fail to survive due to a meager endowment in a particular state (direct effect), as well as due to unfavorable equilibrium price system at which the value of the endowment falls short of the minimum needed for survival (indirect terms-of-trade effect). To illustrate the main result I compute the stochastic limit of equilibrium price and probability of survival of an agent in a large Cobb-Douglas economy.

The probability of sale and price premiums in withdrawn auctioned properties

This paper examines the impact of the auction process of residential properties that whilst unsuccessful at auction sold subsequently. The empirical analysis considers both the probability of sale and the premium of the subsequent sale price over the guide price, reserve and opening bid. The findings highlight that the final achieved sale price is influenced by key price variables revealed both prior to and during the auction itself. Factors such as auction participation, the number of individual bidders and the number of bids are significant in a number of the alternative specifications.

The probability of sale and price premiums in withdrawn auctioned properties

This paper examines the impact of the auction process of residential properties that whilst unsuccessful at auction sold subsequently. The empirical analysis considers both the probability of sale and the premium of the subsequent sale price over the guide price, reserve and opening bid. The findings highlight that the final achieved sale price is influenced by key price variables revealed both prior to and during the auction itself. Factors such as auction participation, the number of individual bidders and the number of bids are significant in a number of the alternative specifications.

Improving the estimation of probability of bidder participation in procurement auctions

Anticipating the number and identity of bidders has significant influence in many theoretical results of the auction itself and bidders' bidding behaviour. This is because when a bidder knows in advance which specific bidders are likely competitors, this knowledge gives a company a head start when setting the bid price. However, despite these competitive implications, most previous studies have focused almost entirely on forecasting the number of bidders and only a few authors have dealt with the identity dimension qualitatively. Using a case study with immediate real-life applications, this paper develops a method for estimating every potential bidder's probability of participating in a future auction as a function of the tender economic size removing the bias caused by the contract size opportunities distribution. This way, a bidder or auctioner will be able to estimate the likelihood of a specific group of key, previously identified bidders in a future tender.

Prediction and probability of neonatal outcome in isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia using multiple ultrasound parameters

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Theoretical estimates of consumable food and probability of acquiring food in larvae of Chrysomya putoria (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

An indirect estimate of consumable food and probability of acquiring food in a blowfly species, Chrysomya putoria, is presented. This alternative procedure combines three distinct models to estimate consumable food in the context of the exploitative competition experienced by immature individuals in blowfly populations. The relevant parameters are derived from data for pupal weight and survival and estimates of density-independent larval mortality in twenty different larval densities. As part of this procedure, the probability of acquiring food per unit of time and the time taken to exhaust the food supply are also calculated. The procedure employed here may be valuable for estimations in insects whose immature stages develop inside the food substrate, where it is difficult to partial out confounding effects such as separation of faeces. This procedure also has the advantage of taking into account the population dynamics of immatures living under crowded conditions, which are particularly characteristic of blowflies and other insects as well.

Survival probability of large rapidity gaps in a QCD model with a dynamical infrared mass scale

We compute the survival probability {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} of large rapidity gaps (LRG) in a QCD based eikonal model with a dynamical gluon mass, where this dynamical infrared mass scale represents the onset of nonperturbative contributions to the diffractive hadron-hadron scattering. Since rapidity gaps can occur in the case of Higgs boson production via fusion of electroweak bosons, we focus on WW -> H fusion processes and show that the resulting {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} decreases with the increase of the energy of the incoming hadrons; in line with the available experimental data for LRG. We obtain {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} = 27.6 +/- 7.8% (18.2 +/- 17.0%) at Tevatron (CERN-LHC) energy for a dynamical gluon mass m(g) = 400 MeV. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic evaluation of the probability of pregnancy at 14 months for Nellore heifers

To estimate the heritability for the probability that yearling heifers would become pregnant, we analyzed the records of 11,487 Nellore animals that participated in breeding seasons at three farms in the Brazilian states of São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul. All heifers were exposed to a bull at the age of about 14 mo. The probability of pregnancy was analyzed as a categorical trait, with a value of 1 (success) assigned to heifers that were diagnosed pregnant by rectal palpation about 60 d after the end of the breeding season of 90 d and a value of 0 (failure) assigned to those that were not pregnant at that time. The estimate of heritability, obtained by Method 9, was 0.57 with standard error of 0.01. The EPD was predicted using a maximum a posteriori threshold method and was expressed as deviations from 50% probability. The range in EPD was -24.50 to 24.55%, with a mean of 0.78% and a SD of 7.46%. We conclude that EPD for probability of pregnancy can be used to select heifers with a higher probability of being fertile. However, it is mainly recommended for the selection of bulls for the production of precocious daughters because the accuracy of prediction is higher for bulls, depending on their number of daughters.

Local data fusion algorithm for fire detection through mobile robot

Multisensor data fusion is a technique that combines the readings of multiple sensors to detect some phenomenon. Data fusion applications are numerous and they can be used in smart buildings, environment monitoring, industry and defense applications. The main goal of multisensor data fusion is to minimize false alarms and maximize the probability of detection based on the detection of multiple sensors. In this paper a local data fusion algorithm based on luminosity, temperature and flame for fire detection is presented. The data fusion approach was embedded in a low cost mobile robot. The prototype test validation has indicated that our approach can detect fire occurrence. Moreover, the low cost project allow the development of robots that could be discarded in their fire detection missions. © 2013 IEEE.

Probability of remission of juvenile idiopathic arthritis following treatment with steroid joint injection

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Absence of detection of xanthomonas axonopodis pv. malvacearum in cotton seeds used in the Northeast Region of Mato Grosso do Sul in a three-based crop season study

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)