Improving telemarketing intelligence through significant proportion of target instances

In this paper we propose, develop, and test a new single-feature evaluator called Significant Proportion of Target Instances (SPTI) to handle the direct-marketing data with the class imbalance problem. The SPTI feature evaluator demonstrates its stability and outstanding performance through empirical experiments in which the real- orld customer data of an e-recruitment firm are used. This research demonstrates that the feature selection using SPTI successfully improves the classifier’s performance in terms of two practical performance metrics. Additionally, we show that it outperforms other well-known feature selection methods and state-of-the-art remedies to the class-imbalance problem. Practically, the findings, when used with the classification model, will help telemarketers to better understand their customers.

Climatic, vegetation and edaphic influences on the probability of fire across mediterranean woodlands of south-eastern Australia

 Aim: We investigated how the probability of burning is influenced by the time since fire (TSF) and gradients of climate, soil and vegetation in the fire-prone mediterranean-climate mallee woodlands of south-eastern Australia. This provided insight into the processes controlling contemporary fuel dynamics and fire regimes across biogeographical boundaries, and the consequent effects of climate change on potential shifts in boundaries between fuel systems and fire regimes, at a subcontinental scale. Location: South-eastern Australia. Methods: A desktop-based GIS was used to generate random sampling points across the study region to collect data on intersecting fire interval, rainfall, vegetation and soil type. We used a Bayesian framework to examine the effects of combinations of rainfall, vegetation and soil type on the hazard-of-burning and survival parameters of the Weibull distribution. These analyses identify the nature of environmental controls on the length of fire intervals and the age-dependence of the hazard of burning. Results: Higher rainfall was consistently associated with shorter fire intervals. Within a single level of rainfall, however, the interaction between soil and vegetation type influenced the length of fire intervals. Higher-fertility sands were associated with shorter fire intervals in grass-dominated communities, whereas lower-fertility sands were associated with shorter fire intervals in shrub-dominated communities. The hazard of burning remained largely independent of TSF across the region, only markedly increasing with TSF in shrub-dominated communities at high rainfall. Main conclusions: Rainfall had a dominant influence on fire frequency in the mediterranean-climate mallee woodlands of south-eastern Australia. Predicted changes in the spatial distribution and amount of rainfall therefore have the potential to drive changes in fire regimes, although the effects of soil fertility and rainfall on fire regimes do not align on a simple productivity gradient. Reduced soil fertility may favour plant traits that increase the rate of woody litter fuel accumulation and flammability, which may alter the overriding influence of rainfall gradients on fire regimes.

Effect of target bias on magnetic field enhanced plasma immersion ion implantation

Recent studies have demonstrated that sheath dynamics in plasma immersion ion implantation (PIII) is significantly affected by an external magnetic field, especially in the case when the magnetic field is parallel to the workpiece surface or intersects it at small angles. In this work we report the results from two-dimensional, particle-in-cell (PIC) computer simulations of magnetic field enhanced plasma immersion implantation system at different bias voltages. The simulations begin with initial low-density nitrogen plasma, which extends with uniform density through a grounded cylindrical chamber. Negative bias voltage is applied to a cylindrical target located on the axis of the vacuum chamber. An axial magnetic field is created by a solenoid installed inside the target holder. A set of simulations at a fixed magnetic field of 0.0025 T at the target surface is performed. Secondary electron emission from the target subjected to ion bombardment is also included. It is found that the plasma density around the cylindrical target increases because of intense background gas ionization by the electrons drifting in the crossed E x B fields. Suppression of the sheath expansion and increase of the implantation current density in front of the high-density plasma region are observed. The effect of target bias on the sheath dynamics and implantation current of the magnetic field enhanced PIII is discussed. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction and probability of neonatal outcome in isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia using multiple ultrasound parameters

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Theoretical estimates of consumable food and probability of acquiring food in larvae of Chrysomya putoria (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

An indirect estimate of consumable food and probability of acquiring food in a blowfly species, Chrysomya putoria, is presented. This alternative procedure combines three distinct models to estimate consumable food in the context of the exploitative competition experienced by immature individuals in blowfly populations. The relevant parameters are derived from data for pupal weight and survival and estimates of density-independent larval mortality in twenty different larval densities. As part of this procedure, the probability of acquiring food per unit of time and the time taken to exhaust the food supply are also calculated. The procedure employed here may be valuable for estimations in insects whose immature stages develop inside the food substrate, where it is difficult to partial out confounding effects such as separation of faeces. This procedure also has the advantage of taking into account the population dynamics of immatures living under crowded conditions, which are particularly characteristic of blowflies and other insects as well.

Survival probability of large rapidity gaps in a QCD model with a dynamical infrared mass scale

We compute the survival probability {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} of large rapidity gaps (LRG) in a QCD based eikonal model with a dynamical gluon mass, where this dynamical infrared mass scale represents the onset of nonperturbative contributions to the diffractive hadron-hadron scattering. Since rapidity gaps can occur in the case of Higgs boson production via fusion of electroweak bosons, we focus on WW -> H fusion processes and show that the resulting {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} decreases with the increase of the energy of the incoming hadrons; in line with the available experimental data for LRG. We obtain {vertical bar S vertical bar(2)} = 27.6 +/- 7.8% (18.2 +/- 17.0%) at Tevatron (CERN-LHC) energy for a dynamical gluon mass m(g) = 400 MeV. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic evaluation of the probability of pregnancy at 14 months for Nellore heifers

To estimate the heritability for the probability that yearling heifers would become pregnant, we analyzed the records of 11,487 Nellore animals that participated in breeding seasons at three farms in the Brazilian states of São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul. All heifers were exposed to a bull at the age of about 14 mo. The probability of pregnancy was analyzed as a categorical trait, with a value of 1 (success) assigned to heifers that were diagnosed pregnant by rectal palpation about 60 d after the end of the breeding season of 90 d and a value of 0 (failure) assigned to those that were not pregnant at that time. The estimate of heritability, obtained by Method 9, was 0.57 with standard error of 0.01. The EPD was predicted using a maximum a posteriori threshold method and was expressed as deviations from 50% probability. The range in EPD was -24.50 to 24.55%, with a mean of 0.78% and a SD of 7.46%. We conclude that EPD for probability of pregnancy can be used to select heifers with a higher probability of being fertile. However, it is mainly recommended for the selection of bulls for the production of precocious daughters because the accuracy of prediction is higher for bulls, depending on their number of daughters.

Probability of remission of juvenile idiopathic arthritis following treatment with steroid joint injection

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Low mass enhanced probability of pion in hadronic matter due to its Landau cut contributions

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Use of the probability of stone formation (PSF) score to assess stone forming risk and treatment response in a cohort of Brazilian stone formers

Introduction: The aim was to confirm that PSF (probability of stone formation) changed appropriately following medical therapy on recurrent stone formers.Materials and Methods: Data were collected on 26 Brazilian stone-formers. A baseline 24-hour urine collection was performed prior to treatment. Details of the medical treatment initiated for stone-disease were recorded. A PSF calculation was performed on the 24 hour urine sample using the 7 urinary parameters required: voided volume, oxalate, calcium, urate, pH, citrate and magnesium. A repeat 24-hour urine sample was performed for PSF calculation after treatment. Comparison was made between the PSF scores before and during treatment.Results: At baseline, 20 of the 26 patients (77%) had a high PSF score (> 0.5). Of the 26 patients, 17 (65%) showed an overall reduction in their PSF profiles with a medical treatment regimen. Eleven patients (42%) changed from a high risk (PSF > 0.5) to a low risk (PSF < 0.5) and 6 patients reduced their risk score but did not change risk category. Six (23%) patients remained in a high risk category (> 0.5) during both assessments.Conclusions: The PSF score reduced following medical treatment in the majority of patients in this cohort.

The Role of Target Therapies in Schistosomiasis-Associated Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension

Background: Schistosomiasis-associated pulmonary arterial hypertension (Sch-PAH) may be one of the most prevalent forms of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) worldwide. However, the clinical and hemodynamical response to specific PAH therapy in Sch-PAH is not known. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the charts of all patients with Sch-PAH who initiated specific PAH treatment between June 2003 and June 2010 in a single PAH reference center in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Clinical and hemodynamical data were retrospectively collected and evaluated in two periods: baseline and posttreatment. Results: The study population consisted of 12 patients with Sch-PAH. They were treated with phosphodiseterase-5 inhibitors (seven patients), endothelin receptor antagonists (four patients), or combination therapy (one patient). Mean treatment period was 34.9 +/- 15.5 months. Patients with Sch-PAH presented significant improvements in terms of functional class, 6-min walk test distance (439 +/- 85 to 492 +/- 79 m, P = .032), cardiac index (2.66 +/- 0.59 to 3.08 +/- 0.68 L/min/m(2), P = .028), and indexed pulmonary vascular resistance (20.7 +/- 11.6 to 15.9 +/- 9 W/m(2), P = .038) with the introduction of specific PAH treatment. Conclusions: We conclude that specific PAH therapy may be of benefit to patients with Sch-PAH, considering clinical, functional, and hemodynamic parameters. CHEST 2012; 141(4):923-928

Prediction and probability of neonatal outcome in isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia using multiple ultrasound parameters

Objectives To evaluate the accuracy and probabilities of different fetal ultrasound parameters to predict neonatal outcome in isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH). Methods Between January 2004 and December 2010, we evaluated prospectively 108 fetuses with isolated CDH (82 left-sided and 26 right-sided). The following parameters were evaluated: gestational age at diagnosis, side of the diaphragmatic defect, presence of polyhydramnios, presence of liver herniated into the fetal thorax (liver-up), lung-to-head ratio (LHR) and observed/expected LHR (o/e-LHR), observed/expected contralateral and total fetal lung volume (o/e-ContFLV and o/e-TotFLV) ratios, ultrasonographic fetal lung volume/fetal weight ratio (US-FLW), observed/expected contralateral and main pulmonary artery diameter (o/e-ContPA and o/eMPA) ratios and the contralateral vascularization index (Cont-VI). The outcomes were neonatal death and severe postnatal pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Results Neonatal mortality was 64.8% (70/108). Severe PAH was diagnosed in 68 (63.0%) cases, of which 63 died neonatally (92.6%) (P < 0.001). Gestational age at diagnosis, side of the defect and polyhydramnios were not associated with poor outcome (P > 0.05). LHR, o/eLHR, liver-up, o/e-ContFLV, o/e-TotFLV, US-FLW, o/eContPA, o/e-MPA and Cont-VI were associated with both neonatal death and severe postnatal PAH (P < 0.001). Receiver-operating characteristics curves indicated that measuring total lung volumes (o/e-TotFLV and US-FLW) was more accurate than was considering only the contralateral lung sizes (LHR, o/e-LHR and o/e-ContFLV; P < 0.05), and Cont-VI was the most accurate ultrasound parameter to predict neonatal death and severe PAH (P < 0.001). Conclusions Evaluating total lung volumes is more accurate than is measuring only the contralateral lung size. Evaluating pulmonary vascularization (Cont-VI) is the most accurate predictor of neonatal outcome. Estimating the probability of survival and severe PAH allows classification of cases according to prognosis. Copyright (C) 2011 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Frequency of human platelet antigens in oncohematological patients with thrombocytopenia and the probability of incompatibility to platelet transfusions

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the frequencies of human platelet antigens in oncohematological patients with thrombocytopenia and to analyze the probability of their incompatibility with platelet transfusions. METHODS: Platelet antigen genotyping was performed by sequence-specific primer polymerase chain reaction (SSP-PCR) for the HPA-1a, HPA-1b, HPA-2a, HPA-2b, HPA-3a, HPA-3b, HPA-4a, HPA-4b, HPA-5a, HPA-5b; HPA-15a, HPA-15b alleles in 150 patients of the Hematology Service of the Hospital das Clínicas (FMUSP). RESULTS: The allele frequencies found were: HPA-1a: 0.837; HPA-1b: 0.163; HPA-2a: 0.830; HPA-2b: 0.170; HPA-3a: 0.700; HPA-3b: 0.300; HPA-4a: 1; HPA-4b: 0; HPA-5a: 0.887; HPA-5b: 0.113; HPA-15a: 0.457 and HPA-15b: 0.543. CONCLUSIONS: Data from the present study showed that the A allele is more common in the population than the B allele, except for HPA-15. This suggests that patients homozygous for the B allele are more predisposed to present alloimmunization and refractoriness to platelet transfusions by immune causes. Platelet genotyping could be of great value in the diagnosis of alloimmune thrombocytopenia and to provide compatible platelet concentrates for these patients.