Probabilistic power system contingency analysis considering wind

This thesis was a step forward in developing probabilistic assessment of power system response to faults subject to intermittent generation by renewable energy. It has investigated the wind power fluctuation effect on power system stability, and the developed fast estimation process has demonstrated the feasibility for real-time implementation. A better balance between power network security and efficiency can be achieved based on this research outcome.

Fuzzy-logic based frequency controller for wind farms augmented with energy storage systems

Displacement of conventional synchronous generators by non-inertial units such as wind or solar generators will result in reduced-system inertia affecting under-frequency response. Frequency control is important to avoid equipment damage, load shedding, and possible blackouts. Wind generators along with energy storage systems can be used to improve the frequency response of low-inertia power system. This paper proposes a fuzzy-logic based frequency controller (FFC) for wind farms augmented with energy storage systems (wind-storage system) to improve the primary frequency response in future low-inertia hybrid power system. The proposed controller provides bidirectional real power injection using system frequency deviations and rate of change of frequency (RoCoF). Moreover, FFC ensures optimal use of energy from wind farms and storage units by eliminating the inflexible de-loading of wind energy and minimizing the required storage capacity. The efficacy of the proposed FFC is verified on the low-inertia hybrid power system.

A probabilistic framework for analysing the compositionality of conceptual combinations

Conceptual combination performs a fundamental role in creating the broad range of compound phrases utilised in everyday language. While the systematicity and productivity of language provide a strong argument in favour of assuming compositionality, this very assumption is still regularly questioned in both cognitive science and philosophy. This article provides a novel probabilistic framework for assessing whether the semantics of conceptual combinations are compositional, and so can be considered as a function of the semantics of the constituent concepts, or not. Rather than adjudicating between different grades of compositionality, the framework presented here contributes formal methods for determining a clear dividing line between compositional and non-compositional semantics. Compositionality is equated with a joint probability distribution modelling how the constituent concepts in the combination are interpreted. Marginal selectivity is emphasised as a pivotal probabilistic constraint for the application of the Bell/CH and CHSH systems of inequalities (referred to collectively as Bell-type). Non-compositionality is then equated with either a failure of marginal selectivity, or, in the presence of marginal selectivity, with a violation of Bell-type inequalities. In both non-compositional scenarios, the conceptual combination cannot be modelled using a joint probability distribution with variables corresponding to the interpretation of the individual concepts. The framework is demonstrated by applying it to an empirical scenario of twenty-four non-lexicalised conceptual combinations.

Probabilistic orthographic cues to grammatical category in the brain

What helps us determine whether a word is a noun or a verb, without conscious awareness? We report on cues in the way individual English words are spelled, and, for the first time, identify their neural correlates via functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). We used a lexical decision task with trisyllabic nouns and verbs containing orthographic cues that are either consistent or inconsistent with the spelling patterns of words from that grammatical category. Significant linear increases in response times and error rates were observed as orthography became less consistent, paralleled by significant linear decreases in blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) signal in the left supramarginal gyrus of the left inferior parietal lobule, a brain region implicated in visual word recognition. A similar pattern was observed in the left superior parietal lobule. These findings align with an emergentist view of grammatical category processing which results from sensitivity to multiple probabilistic cues.

Probabilistic multi-tensor estimation using the tensor distribution function

Diffusion weighted magnetic resonance (MR) imaging is a powerful tool that can be employed to study white matter microstructure by examining the 3D displacement profile of water molecules in brain tissue. By applying diffusion-sensitized gradients along a minimum of 6 directions, second-order tensors can be computed to model dominant diffusion processes. However, conventional DTI is not sufficient to resolve crossing fiber tracts. Recently, a number of high-angular resolution schemes with greater than 6 gradient directions have been employed to address this issue. In this paper, we introduce the Tensor Distribution Function (TDF), a probability function defined on the space of symmetric positive definite matrices. Here, fiber crossing is modeled as an ensemble of Gaussian diffusion processes with weights specified by the TDF. Once this optimal TDF is determined, the diffusion orientation distribution function (ODF) can easily be computed by analytic integration of the resulting displacement probability function.

Predicting tours and probabilistic simulation for BKZ lattice reduction algorithm

We investigate the terminating concept of BKZ reduction first introduced by Hanrot et al. [Crypto'11] and make extensive experiments to predict the number of tours necessary to obtain the best possible trade off between reduction time and quality. Then, we improve Buchmann and Lindner's result [Indocrypt'09] to find sub-lattice collision in SWIFFT. We illustrate that further improvement in time is possible through special setting of SWIFFT parameters and also through the combination of different reduction parameters adaptively. Our contribution also include a probabilistic simulation approach top-up deterministic simulation described by Chen and Nguyen [Asiacrypt'11] that can able to predict the Gram-Schmidt norms more accurately for large block sizes.

Probabilistic assessment of herbicide runoff from Japanese rice paddies: The effects of local meteorological conditions and site-specific water management

Uncertainty assessments of herbicide losses from rice paddies in Japan associated with local meteorological conditions and water management practices were performed using a pesticide fate and transport model, PCPF-1, under the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation scheme. First, MC simulations were conducted for five different cities with a prescribed water management scenario and a 10-year meteorological dataset of each city. The effectiveness of water management was observed regarding the reduction of pesticide runoff. However, a greater potential of pesticide runoff remained in Western Japan. Secondly, an extended analysis was attempted to evaluate the effects of local water management and meteorological conditions between the Chikugo River basin and the Sakura River basin using uncertainty inputs processed from observed water management data. The results showed that because of more severe rainfall events, significant pesticide runoff occurred in the Chikugo River basin even when appropriate irrigation practices were implemented. © Pesticide Science Society of Japan.

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bangalore

This article presents the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Bangalore, South India. Analyses have been carried out considering the seismotectonic parameters of the region covering a radius of 350 km keeping Bangalore as the center. Seismic hazard parameter `b' has been evaluated considering the available earthquake data using (1) Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) relationship and (2) Kijko and Sellevoll (1989, 1992) method utilizing extreme and complete catalogs. The `b' parameter was estimated to be 0.62 to 0.98 from G-R relation and 0.87 +/- A 0.03 from Kijko and Sellevoll method. The results obtained are a little higher than the `b' values published earlier for southern India. Further, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bangalore region has been carried out considering six seismogenic sources. From the analysis, mean annual rate of exceedance and cumulative probability hazard curve for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (Sa) have been generated. The quantified hazard values in terms of the rock level peak ground acceleration (PGA) are mapped for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years on a grid size of 0.5 km x 0.5 km. In addition, Uniform Hazard Response Spectrum (UHRS) at rock level is also developed for the 5% damping corresponding to 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) value of 0.121 g obtained from the present investigation is slightly lower (but comparable) than the PGA values obtained from the deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) for the same area. However, the PGA value obtained in the current investigation is higher than PGA values reported in the global seismic hazard assessment program (GSHAP) maps of Bhatia et al. (1999) for the shield area.

Fuzzy Logic-Based Approaches in Water Resource System Modelling

Recent research in modelling uncertainty in water resource systems has highlighted the use of fuzzy logic-based approaches. A number of research contributions exist in the literature that deal with uncertainty in water resource systems including fuzziness, subjectivity, imprecision and lack of adequate data. This chapter presents a broad overview of the fuzzy logic-based approaches adopted in addressing uncertainty in water resource systems modelling. Applications of fuzzy rule-based systems and fuzzy optimisation are then discussed. Perspectives on the scope for further research are presented.

A probabilistic constrained nonlinear optimization framework to optimize RED parameters

The random early detection (RED) technique has seen a lot of research over the years. However, the functional relationship between RED performance and its parameters viz,, queue weight (omega(q)), marking probability (max(p)), minimum threshold (min(th)) and maximum threshold (max(th)) is not analytically availa ble. In this paper, we formulate a probabilistic constrained optimization problem by assuming a nonlinear relationship between the RED average queue length and its parameters. This problem involves all the RED parameters as the variables of the optimization problem. We use the barrier and the penalty function approaches for its Solution. However (as above), the exact functional relationship between the barrier and penalty objective functions and the optimization variable is not known, but noisy samples of these are available for different parameter values. Thus, for obtaining the gradient and Hessian of the objective, we use certain recently developed simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) based estimates of these. We propose two four-timescale stochastic approximation algorithms based oil certain modified second-order SPSA updates for finding the optimum RED parameters. We present the results of detailed simulation experiments conducted over different network topologies and network/traffic conditions/settings, comparing the performance of Our algorithms with variants of RED and a few other well known adaptive queue management (AQM) techniques discussed in the literature.

A study of placement algorithms through trial interchange of logic modules

Based on trial interchanges, this paper develops three algorithms for the solution of the placement problem of logic modules in a circuit. A significant decrease in the computation time of such placement algorithms can be achieved by restricting the trial interchanges to only a subset of all the modules in a circuit. The three algorithms are simulated on a DEC 1090 system in Pascal and the performance of these algorithms in terms of total wirelength and computation time is compared with the results obtained by Steinberg, for the 34-module backboard wiring problem. Performance analysis of the first two algorithms reveals that algorithms based on pairwise trial interchanges (2 interchanges) achieve a desired placement faster than the algorithms based on trial N interchanges. The first two algorithms do not perform better than Steinberg's algorithm1, whereas the third algorithm based on trial pairwise interchange among unconnected pairs of modules (UPM) and connected pairs of modules (CPM) performs better than Steinberg's algorithm, both in terms of total wirelength (TWL) and computation time.

A Design for Testability of Undetectable Crosspoint Faults in Programmable Logic Arrays

In this paper, the validity of'single fault assumption in deriving diagnostic test sets is examined with respect to crosspoint faults in programmable logic arrays (PLA's). The control input procedure developed here can be used to convert PLA's having undetectable crosspoint faults to crosspoint-irredundant PLA's for testing purposes. All crosspoints will be testable in crosspoint-irredundant PLA's. The control inputs are used as extra variables during testing. They are maintained at logic I during normal operation. A useful heuristic for obtaining a near-minimal number of control inputs is suggested. Expressions for calculating bounds on the number of control inputs have also been obtained.

An on-line algorithm for the location of cross point faults in programmable logic arrays

An on-line algorithm is developed for the location of single cross point faults in a PLA (FPLA). The main feature of the algorithm is the determination of a fault set corresponding to the response obtained for a failed test. For the apparently small number of faults in this set, all other tests are generated and a fault table is formed. Subsequently, an adaptive procedure is used to diagnose the fault. Functional equivalence test is carried out to determine the actual fault class if the adaptive testing results in a set of faults with identical tests. The large amount of computation time and storage required in the determination, a priori, of all the fault equivalence classes or in the construction of a fault dictionary are not needed here. A brief study of functional equivalence among the cross point faults is also made.

Logic as the Universal Science : Bertrand Russell's Early Conception of Logic and Its Philosophical Context

Bertrand Russell (1872 1970) introduced the English-speaking philosophical world to modern, mathematical logic and foundational study of mathematics. The present study concerns the conception of logic that underlies his early logicist philosophy of mathematics, formulated in The Principles of Mathematics (1903). In 1967, Jean van Heijenoort published a paper, Logic as Language and Logic as Calculus, in which he argued that the early development of modern logic (roughly the period 1879 1930) can be understood, when considered in the light of a distinction between two essentially different perspectives on logic. According to the view of logic as language, logic constitutes the general framework for all rational discourse, or meaningful use of language, whereas the conception of logic as calculus regards logic more as a symbolism which is subject to reinterpretation. The calculus-view paves the way for systematic metatheory, where logic itself becomes a subject of mathematical study (model-theory). Several scholars have interpreted Russell s views on logic with the help of the interpretative tool introduced by van Heijenoort,. They have commonly argued that Russell s is a clear-cut case of the view of logic as language. In the present study a detailed reconstruction of the view and its implications is provided, and it is argued that the interpretation is seriously misleading as to what he really thought about logic. I argue that Russell s conception is best understood by setting it in its proper philosophical context. This is constituted by Immanuel Kant s theory of mathematics. Kant had argued that purely conceptual thought basically, the logical forms recognised in Aristotelian logic cannot capture the content of mathematical judgments and reasonings. Mathematical cognition is not grounded in logic but in space and time as the pure forms of intuition. As against this view, Russell argued that once logic is developed into a proper tool which can be applied to mathematical theories, Kant s views turn out to be completely wrong. In the present work the view is defended that Russell s logicist philosophy of mathematics, or the view that mathematics is really only logic, is based on what I term the Bolzanian account of logic . According to this conception, (i) the distinction between form and content is not explanatory in logic; (ii) the propositions of logic have genuine content; (iii) this content is conferred upon them by special entities, logical constants . The Bolzanian account, it is argued, is both historically important and throws genuine light on Russell s conception of logic.