A modified pseudolikelihood approach for analysis of longitudinal data

We consider the analysis of longitudinal data when the covariance function is modeled by additional parameters to the mean parameters. In general, inconsistent estimators of the covariance (variance/correlation) parameters will be produced when the "working" correlation matrix is misspecified, which may result in great loss of efficiency of the mean parameter estimators (albeit the consistency is preserved). We consider using different "Working" correlation models for the variance and the mean parameters. In particular, we find that an independence working model should be used for estimating the variance parameters to ensure their consistency in case the correlation structure is misspecified. The designated "working" correlation matrices should be used for estimating the mean and the correlation parameters to attain high efficiency for estimating the mean parameters. Simulation studies indicate that the proposed algorithm performs very well. We also applied different estimation procedures to a data set from a clinical trial for illustration.

Robust estimating functions and bias correction for longitudinal data analysis

Robust methods are useful in making reliable statistical inferences when there are small deviations from the model assumptions. The widely used method of the generalized estimating equations can be "robustified" by replacing the standardized residuals with the M-residuals. If the Pearson residuals are assumed to be unbiased from zero, parameter estimators from the robust approach are asymptotically biased when error distributions are not symmetric. We propose a distribution-free method for correcting this bias. Our extensive numerical studies show that the proposed method can reduce the bias substantially. Examples are given for illustration.

Effects of variance-function misspecification in analysis of longitudinal data

The approach of generalized estimating equations (GEE) is based on the framework of generalized linear models but allows for specification of a working matrix for modeling within-subject correlations. The variance is often assumed to be a known function of the mean. This article investigates the impacts of misspecifying the variance function on estimators of the mean parameters for quantitative responses. Our numerical studies indicate that (1) correct specification of the variance function can improve the estimation efficiency even if the correlation structure is misspecified; (2) misspecification of the variance function impacts much more on estimators for within-cluster covariates than for cluster-level covariates; and (3) if the variance function is misspecified, correct choice of the correlation structure may not necessarily improve estimation efficiency. We illustrate impacts of different variance functions using a real data set from cow growth.

Designs for phase I clinical trials with multiple courses of subjects at different doses

The goal of this article is to provide a new design framework and its corresponding estimation for phase I trials. Existing phase I designs assign each subject to one dose level based on responses from previous subjects. Yet it is possible that subjects with neither toxicity nor efficacy responses can be treated at higher dose levels, and their subsequent responses to higher doses will provide more information. In addition, for some trials, it might be possible to obtain multiple responses (repeated measures) from a subject at different dose levels. In this article, a nonparametric estimation method is developed for such studies. We also explore how the designs of multiple doses per subject can be implemented to improve design efficiency. The gain of efficiency from "single dose per subject" to "multiple doses per subject" is evaluated for several scenarios. Our numerical study shows that using "multiple doses per subject" and the proposed estimation method together increases the efficiency substantially.

Soil type does not affect seed ageing when soil water potential and temperature are controlled

To investigate the effects of soil type on seed persistence in a manner that controlled for location and climate variables, three weed species—Gomphocarpus physocarpus (swan plant), Avena sterilis ssp. ludoviciana (wild oat) and Ligustrum lucidum (broadleaf privet)—were buried for 21 months in three contrasting soils at a single location. Soil type had a significant effect on seed persistence and seedling vigour, but soil water content and temperature varied between soils due to differences in physical and chemical properties. Warmer, wetter conditions favoured shorter persistence. A laboratory-based test was developed to accelerate the rate of seed ageing within soils, using controlled superoptimal temperature and moisture conditions (the soil-specific accelerated ageing test, SSAAT). The SSAAT demonstrated that soil type per se did not influence seed longevity. Moreover, the order in which seeds aged was the same whether aged in the field or SSAAT, with L. lucidum being shortest-lived and A. sterilis being longest-lived of the three species.

Maximising the contribution of native-range studies towards the identification and prioritisation of weed biocontrol agents

Effective study in the native range to identify potential agents underpins all efforts in classical biological control of weeds. Good agents that demonstrate both a high degree of host specificity and the potential to be damaging are a very limited resource and must therefore be carefully studied and considered. The overseas component is often operationally difficult and expensive but can contribute considerably more than a list of herbivores attacking a particular target. While the principles underlying this foreign component have been understood for some time, recently developed technologies and methods can make very significant contributions to foreign studies. Molecular and genetic characterisations of both target weed and agent organism can be increasingly employed to more accurately define the identity and phylogeny of them. Climate matching and modelling software is now available and can be utilised to better select agents for particular regions of concern. Relational databases can store collection information for analysis and future enquiry while quantification of sampling effort, employment of statistical survey methods and analysis by techniques such as rarefaction curves contribute to efficient and effective searching. Obtaining good and timely identifications for discovered agent organisms is perhaps the most serious issue confronting the modern explorer. The diminishing numbers of specialist taxonomists employed at the major museums while international and national protocols demand higher standards of identity exacerbates the issue. Genetic barcoding may provide a very useful tool to overcome this problem. Native-range work also offers under-exploited opportunities for contributing towards predicting safety, abundance and efficacy of potential agents in their target environment.

Risk Minimizing Option Pricing in a Semi-Markov Modulated Market

We address risk minimizing option pricing in a semi-Markov modulated market where the floating interest rate depends on a finite state semi-Markov process. The growth rate and the volatility of the stock also depend on the semi-Markov process. Using the Föllmer–Schweizer decomposition we find the locally risk minimizing price for European options and the corresponding hedging strategy. We develop suitable numerical methods for computing option prices.

Studies of Solids and Surfaces by Auger Electron Spectroscopy

Although the applications of Auger electron spectroscopy in surface analysis have by far outweighed its use as a tool to investigate electron states of solids and surfaces, there are a variety of situations where Auger spectroscopy provides unique information. Apart from the chemical shifts, Auger intensities are useful in determining the number of d-electron states in transition metal systems. Auger spectroscopy is a good probe to investigate the surface oxidation of metals. In addition to the intra-atomic Auger transitions, inter-atomic transitions observed in oxides and other systems reveal the nature of electron states of surfaces. Charge-transfer and hybridization effects in alloys are also usefully studied by Auger spectroscopy. Auger electron spectroscopy has not been a popular technique to investigate adsorption of molecules on surfaces, but the technique is useful to obtain fingerprints of surface species.

Food and Indoor Air Isolated Bacillus Non-Protein Toxins: : Structures, Physico-Chemical Properties and Mechanisms of Effects on Eukaryotic Cells

We report here the structures and properties of heat-stable, non-protein, and mammalian cell-toxic compounds produced by spore-forming bacilli isolated from indoor air of buildings and from food. Little information is available on the effects and occurrence of heat-stable non-protein toxins produced by bacilli in moisture-damaged buildings. Bacilli emit spores that move in the air and can serve as the carriers of toxins, in a manner similar to that of the spores of toxic fungi found in contaminated indoor air. Bacillus spores in food cause problems because they tolerate the temperatures applied in food manufacture and the spores later initiate growth when food storage conditions are more favorable. Detection of the toxic compounds in Bacillus is based on using the change in mobility of boar spermatozoa as an indicator of toxic exposure. GC, LC, MS, and nuclear magnetic resonance NMR spectroscopy were used for purification, detection, quantitation, and analysis of the properties and structures of the compounds. Toxicity and the mechanisms of toxicity of the compounds were studied using boar spermatozoa, feline lung cells, human neural cells, and mitochondria isolated from rat liver. The ionophoric properties were studied using the BLM (black-lipid membrane) method. One novel toxin, forming ion channels permeant to K+ > Na+ > Ca2+, was found and named amylosin. It is produced by B. amyloliquefaciens isolated from indoor air of moisture-damaged buildings. Amylosin was purified with an RP-HPLC and a monoisotopic mass of 1197 Da was determined with ESI-IT-MS. Furthermore, acid hydrolysis of amylosin followed by analysis of the amino acids with the GS-MS showed that it was a peptide. The presence of a chromophoric polyene group was found using a NMR spectroscopy. The quantification method developed for amylosin based on RP-HPLC-UV, using the macrolactone polyene, amphotericin B (MW 924), as a reference compound. The B. licheniformis strains isolated from a food poisoning case produced a lipopeptide, lichenysin A, that ruptured mammalian cell membranes and was purified with a LC. Lichenysin A was identified by its protonated molecules and sodium- and potassium- cationized molecules with MALDI-TOF-MS. Its protonated forms were observed at m/z 1007, 1021 and 1035. The amino acids of lichenysin A were analyzed with ESI-TQ-MS/MS and, after acid hydrolysis, the stereoisomeric forms of the amino acids with RP-HPLC. The indoor air isolates of the strain of B. amyloliquefaciens produced not only amylosin but also lipopeptides: the cell membrane-damaging surfactin and the fungicidal fengycin. They were identified with ESI-IT-MS observing their protonated molecules, the sodium- and potassium-cationized molecules and analysing the MS/MS spectra. The protonated molecules of surfactin and fengycin showed m/z values of 1009, 1023, and 1037 and 1450, 1463, 1493, and 1506, respectively. Cereulide (MW 1152) was purified with RP-HPLC from a food poisoning strain of B. cereus. Cereulide was identified with ESI-TQ-MS according to the protonated molecule observed at m/z 1154 and the ammonium-, sodium- and potassium-cationized molecules observed at m/z 1171, 1176, and 1192, respectively. The fragment ions of the MS/MS spectrum obtained from the protonated molecule of cereulide at m/z 1154 were also interpreted. We developed a quantification method for cereulide, using RP-HPLC-UV and valinomycin (MW 1110, which structurally resembles cereulide) as the reference compound. Furthermore, we showed empirically, using the BLM method, that the emetic toxin cereulide is a specific and effective potassium ionophore of whose toxicity target is especially the mitochondria.

Kinetics of resinification of furfuryl alcohol in aqueous solution

Kinetic information on the resinification of furfuryl alcohol has been derived from the rate of increase of color intensity measured with a photoelectric colorimeter, the resinification being carried out isothermally in Clark-Lubs aqueous buffer solutions in the pH range of 1.0-2.2. The activation energy for polymerization is found to increase exponentially with pH. The time required for emulsification (which is quickly followed by separation of resin layer) to occur in an aqueous solution of furfuryl alcohol also increases exponentially with pH, but it decreases exponentially with temperature. This is described quantitatively by a single expression.

SPECT-aided diagnostics and genetic risk factors in Parkinson's disease

Hypokinesia, rigidity, tremor, and postural instability are the cardinal symptoms of Parkinson s disease (PD). Since these symptoms are not specific to PD the diagnosis may be uncertain in early PD. Etiology and pathogenesis of PD remain unclear. There is no neuroprotective therapy. Genetic findings are expected to reveal metabolic routes in PD pathogenesis and thereby eventually lead to therapeutic innovations. In this thesis, we first aimed to study the usefulness and accuracy of 123I-b-CIT SPECT in the diagnosis of PD in a consecutive clinic-based material including various movement disorders. We subsequently a genetic project to identify genetic risk factors for sporadic PD using a candidate gene approach in a case-control setting including 147 sporadic PD patients and 137 spouse controls. Dopamine transporter imaging by 123I-b-CIT SPECT could distinguish PD from essential tremor, drug-induced parkinsonism, dystonia and psychogenic parkinsonism. However, b-CIT uptake in Parkinson plus syndromes (PSP and multiple system atrophy) and dementia with Lewy bodies was not significantly different from PD. 123I-b-CIT SPECT could not reliably differentiate PD from vascular parkinsonism. 123I-b-CIT SPECT was 100% sensitive and specific in the diagnosis of PD in patients younger than 55 years but less specific in older patients, due to differential distribution of the above conditions in the younger and older age groups. 123I-b-CIT SPECT correlated with symptoms and detected bilateral nigrostriatal defect in patients whose PD was still in unilateral stage. Thus, in addition to as a differential diagnostic aid, 123I-b-CIT SPECT may be used to detect PD early, even pre-symptomatically in at-risk individuals. 123I-b-CIT SPECT was used to aid in the collection of patients to the genetic studies. In the genetic part of this thesis we found an association between PD and a polymorphic CAG-repeat in POLG1 gene encoding the catalytic subunit of mitochondrial polymerase gamma. The CAG-repeat encodes a polyglutamine tract (polyQ), the two most common lengths of which are 10Q (86-90%) and 11Q. In our Finnish material, the rarer non-10Q or non-11Q length variants (6Q-9Q, 12Q-14Q, 4R+9Q) were more frequent in patients than in spouse controls (10% vs. 3.5 %, p=0.003), or population controls (p=0.001). Therefore, we performed a replication study in 652 North American PD patients and 292 controls. Non-10/11Q alleles were more common in the US PD patients compared to the controls but the difference did not reach statistical significance (p=0.07). This larger data suggested our original definition of variant length allele might need reconsideration. Most previous studies on phenotypic effects of POLG1 polyQ have defined 10Q as the only normal allele. Non-10Q alleles were significantly more common in patients compared to the controls (17.3% vs. 12.3 %, p= 0.005). This association between non-10Q length variants and PD remained significant when compared to a larger set of 1541 literature controls (p=0.00005). In conclusion, POLG1 polyQ alleles other than 10Q may predispose to PD. We did not find association between PD and parkin or DJ-1, genes underlying autosomal recessive parkinsonism. The functional Val158Met polymorphism, which affects the catalytic effect of COMT enzyme, and another coding polymorphism in COMT were not associated with PD in our patient material. The APOE e2/3/4 polymorphism modifies risk for Alzheimer s disease and prognosis of for example brain trauma. APOE promoter and enhancer polymorphisms 219G/T and +113G/C, and APOE e3 haplotypes, have also been shown to modify the risk of Alzheimer s disease but not reported in PD. No association was found between PD and APOE e2/3/4 polymorphism, the promoter or enhancer polymorphisms, or the e3 haplotypes.

Raman spectra of ferro-electric crystals Part IV. Lithium hydrazinium sulphate (LiN2H5SO4)

The Raman spectrum of lithium hydrazinium sulphate has been recorded both in the single crystal form and in aqueous solutions. The crystal exhibits thirty-eight Raman lines having the frequency shifts 52, 70, 104, 146, 174, 220, 260, 302, 350, 454, 470, 610, 630, 715, 977, 1094, 1115, 1132, 1177, 1191, 1260, 1444, 1493, 1577, 1630, 1670, 2205, 2484, 2553, 2655, 2734, 2848, 2894, 2939, 3028, 3132, 3290 and 3330 cm.−1 The aqueous solution gave rise to six Raman lines at 452, 980, 1050–1200, 1260, 1425 and 1570 cm.−1 apart from a maximum at 180 cm.−1 in the ‘wing’ accompanying the Rayleigh line. The observed Raman lines have been assigned as arising from the vibrations of the SO4 ion, N2H5+ ion, Li-O4 group, hydrogen bond and the lattice. The influence of the hydrogen bond on the N-H stretching vibrations has been pointed out. The various features of the observed spectrum strongly support the hypothesis that the NH3 group in the crystal is rotating around the N-N axis at room temperature.

Stereoelectronic control of Cope rearrangement energetics through remote double bonds in novel, rigid polycyclic frames

The presence and orientation of remote double bonds are shown to completely alter the shapes of Cope rearrangement energy profiles in a heptacyclic system.