How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes?

Self-reported home values are widely used as a measure of housing wealth by researchers employing a variety of data sets and studying a number of different individual and household level decisions. The accuracy of this measure is an open empirical question, and requires some type of market assessment of the values reported. In this research, we study the predictive power of self-reported housing wealth when estimating sales prices utilizing the Health and Retirement Study. We find that homeowners, on average, overestimate the value of their properties by between 5% and 10%. More importantly, we are the first to document a strong correlation between accuracy and the economic conditions at the time of the purchase of the property (measured by the prevalent interest rate, the growth of household income, and the growth of median housing prices). While most individuals overestimate the value of their properties, those who bought during more difficult economic times tend to be more accurate, and in some cases even underestimate the value of their house. These results establish a surprisingly strong, likely permanent, and in many cases long-lived, effect of the initial conditions surrounding the purchases of properties, on how individuals value them. This cyclicality of the overestimation of house prices can provide some explanations for the difficulties currently faced by many homeowners, who were expecting large appreciations in home value to rescue them in case of increases in interest rates which could jeopardize their ability to live up to their financial commitments.

Which clinical signs predict hypoxaemia in young Senegalese children with acute lower respiratory tract disease?

BACKGROUND: Acute lower respiratory tract diseases are an important cause of mortality in children in resource-limited settings. In the absence of pulse oximetry, clinicians rely on clinical signs to detect hypoxaemia. OBJECTIVE: To assess the diagnostic value of clinical signs of hypoxaemia in children aged 2 months to 5 years with acute lower respiratory tract disease. METHODS: Seventy children with a history of cough and signs of respiratory distress were enrolled. Three experienced physicians recorded clinical signs and oxygen saturation by pulse oximetry. Hypoxaemia was defined as oxygen saturation <90%. Clinical predictors of hypoxaemia were evaluated using adjusted diagnostic odds ratios (aDOR). RESULTS: There was a 43% prevalence of hypoxaemia. An initial visual impression of poor general status [aDOR 20·0, 95% CI 3·8-106], severe chest-indrawing (aDOR 9·8, 95% CI 1·5-65), audible grunting (aDOR 6·9, 95% CI 1·4-25) and cyanosis (aDOR 26·5, 95% CI 1·1-677) were significant predictors of hypoxaemia. CONCLUSION: In children under 5 years of age, several simple clinical signs are reliable predictors of hypoxaemia. These should be included in diagnostic guidelines.

Social Cognition is not Reducible to Theory of Mind. When Children use Deontic Rules to Predict Others' Behaviors

The objective of this paper is to discuss whether children have a capacity for deonticreasoning that is irreducible to mentalizing. The results of two experiments point tothe existence of such non-mentalistic understanding and prediction of the behaviourof others. In Study 1, young children (3- and 4-year-olds) were told different versionsof classic false-belief tasks, some of which were modified by the introduction of a ruleor a regularity. When the task (a standard change of location task) included a rule, theperformance of 3-year-olds, who fail traditional false-belief tasks, significantly improved.In Study 2, 3-year-olds proved to be able to infer a rule from a social situation and touse it in order to predict the behaviour of a character involved in a modified versionof the false-belief task. These studies suggest that rules play a central role in the socialcognition of young children and that deontic reasoning might not necessarily involvemind reading.

IL28B polymorphisms, IP-10 and viral load predict virological response to therapy in chronic hepatitis C.

Aliment Pharmacol Ther 2011; 33: 1162-1172 SUMMARY: Background  Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major cause of chronic liver disease, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma and the identification of the predictors of response to antiviral therapy is an important clinical issue. Aim  To determine the independent contribution of factors including IL28B polymorphisms, IFN-gamma inducible protein-10 (IP-10) levels and the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) score in predicting response to therapy in chronic hepatitis C (CHC). Methods  Multivariate analysis of factors predicting rapid (RVR) and sustained (SVR) virological response in 280 consecutive, treatment-naive CHC patients treated with peginterferon alpha and ribavirin in a prospective multicentre study. Results  Independent predictors of RVR were HCV RNA <400 000 IU/mL (OR 11.37; 95% CI 3.03-42.6), rs12980275 AA (OR 7.09; 1.97-25.56) and IP-10 (OR 0.04; 0.003-0.56) in HCV genotype 1 patients and lower baseline γ-glutamyl-transferase levels (OR = 0.02; 0.0009-0.31) in HCV genotype 3 patients. Independent predictors of SVR were rs12980275 AA (OR 9.68; 3.44-27.18), age <40 years (OR = 4.79; 1.50-15.34) and HCV RNA <400 000 IU/mL (OR 2.74; 1.03-7.27) in HCV genotype 1 patients and rs12980275 AA (OR = 6.26; 1.98-19.74) and age <40 years (OR 5.37; 1.54-18.75) in the 88 HCV genotype 1 patients without a RVR. RVR was by itself predictive of SVR in HCV genotype 1 patients (OR 33.0; 4.06-268.32) and the only independent predictor of SVR in HCV genotype 2 (OR 9.0, 1.72-46.99) or genotype 3 patients (OR 7.8, 1.43-42.67). Conclusions  In HCV genotype 1 patients, IL28B polymorphisms, HCV RNA load and IP-10 independently predict RVR. The combination of IL28B polymorphisms, HCV RNA level and age may yield more accurate pre-treatment prediction of SVR. HOMA-IR score is not associated with viral response.

Do different measures of early life socioeconomic circumstances predict adult mortality? Evidence from the British Whitehall II and French GAZEL studies

BACKGROUND: Father's occupational position, education and height have all been used to examine the effects of adverse early life socioeconomic circumstances on health, but it remains unknown whether they predict mortality equally well. METHODS: We used pooled data on 18,393 men and 7060 women from the Whitehall II and GAZEL cohorts to examine associations between early life socioeconomic circumstances and all-cause and cause-specific mortality. RESULTS: During the 20-y follow-up period, 1487 participants died. Education had a monotonic association with all mortality outcomes; the age, sex and cohort-adjusted HR for the lowest versus the highest educational group was 1.45 (95% CI 1.24 to 1.69) for all-cause mortality. There was evidence of a U-shaped association between height and all-cause, cancer and cardiovascular mortality robust to adjustment for the other indicators (HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.93 for those shorter than average and HR 1.36, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.88 for those taller than average for cardiovascular mortality). Greater all-cause and cancer mortality was observed in participants whose father's occupational position was manual rather than non-manual (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.23 for all-cause mortality), but the risks were attenuated after adjusting for education and height. CONCLUSIONS: The association between early life socioeconomic circumstances and mortality depends on the socioeconomic indicator used and the cause of death examined. Height is not a straightforward measure of early life socioeconomic circumstances as taller people do not have a health advantage for all mortality outcomes.

"Too complex for me!" Why do performance-approach and performance-avoidance goals predict exam performance?

Classroom research on achievement goals has revealed that performance-approach goals (goals to outperform others) positively predict exam performance whereas performance-avoidance goals (goals not to perform more poorly than others) negatively predict it. Because prior classroom research has primarily utilized multiplechoice exam performance, the first aim of the present study was to extend these findings to a different measure of exam performance (oral examination). The second aim of this research was to test the mediating role of perceived difficulty. Participants were 49 4th year psychology students of the University of Geneva. Participants answered a questionnaire assessing their level of performance-approach and performance-avoidance goal endorsement in one of their classes as well as the perceived difficulty of this class for themselves. Results indicated that performance-approach goals significantly and positively predicted exam grades. Performance-avoidance goals significantly and negatively predicted grades. Both of these relationships were mediated by the perceived difficulty of the class for oneself. Thus, the links previously observed between performance goals and exam performance were replicated on an oral exam. Perceived difficulty is discussed as a key dimension responsible for these findings.

Do habitat suitability models reliably predict the recovery areas of threatened species?

1. Identifying those areas suitable for recolonization by threatened species is essential to support efficient conservation policies. Habitat suitability models (HSM) predict species' potential distributions, but the quality of their predictions should be carefully assessed when the species-environment equilibrium assumption is violated.2. We studied the Eurasian otter Lutra lutra, whose numbers are recovering in southern Italy. To produce widely applicable results, we chose standard HSM procedures and looked for the models' capacities in predicting the suitability of a recolonization area. We used two fieldwork datasets: presence-only data, used in the Ecological Niche Factor Analyses (ENFA), and presence-absence data, used in a Generalized Linear Model (GLM). In addition to cross-validation, we independently evaluated the models with data from a recolonization event, providing presences on a previously unoccupied river.3. Three of the models successfully predicted the suitability of the recolonization area, but the GLM built with data before the recolonization disagreed with these predictions, missing the recolonized river's suitability and badly describing the otter's niche. Our results highlighted three points of relevance to modelling practices: (1) absences may prevent the models from correctly identifying areas suitable for a species spread; (2) the selection of variables may lead to randomness in the predictions; and (3) the Area Under Curve (AUC), a commonly used validation index, was not well suited to the evaluation of model quality, whereas the Boyce Index (CBI), based on presence data only, better highlighted the models' fit to the recolonization observations.4. For species with unstable spatial distributions, presence-only models may work better than presence-absence methods in making reliable predictions of suitable areas for expansion. An iterative modelling process, using new occurrences from each step of the species spread, may also help in progressively reducing errors.5. Synthesis and applications. Conservation plans depend on reliable models of the species' suitable habitats. In non-equilibrium situations, such as the case for threatened or invasive species, models could be affected negatively by the inclusion of absence data when predicting the areas of potential expansion. Presence-only methods will here provide a better basis for productive conservation management practices.

Pedotransfer functions to predict water retention for soils of the humid tropics: a review

Over the past three decades, pedotransfer functions (PTFs) have been widely used by soil scientists to estimate soils properties in temperate regions in response to the lack of soil data for these regions. Several authors indicated that little effort has been dedicated to the prediction of soil properties in the humid tropics, where the need for soil property information is of even greater priority. The aim of this paper is to provide an up-to-date repository of past and recently published articles as well as papers from proceedings of events dealing with water-retention PTFs for soils of the humid tropics. Of the 35 publications found in the literature on PTFs for prediction of water retention of soils of the humid tropics, 91 % of the PTFs are based on an empirical approach, and only 9 % are based on a semi-physical approach. Of the empirical PTFs, 97 % are continuous, and 3 % (one) is a class PTF; of the empirical PTFs, 97 % are based on multiple linear and polynomial regression of n th order techniques, and 3 % (one) is based on the k-Nearest Neighbor approach; 84 % of the continuous PTFs are point-based, and 16 % are parameter-based; 97 % of the continuous PTFs are equation-based PTFs, and 3 % (one) is based on pattern recognition. Additionally, it was found that 26 % of the tropical water-retention PTFs were developed for soils in Brazil, 26 % for soils in India, 11 % for soils in other countries in America, and 11 % for soils in other countries in Africa.

Usefulness of heart rate to predict cardiac events in treated patients with high-risk systemic hypertension.

A high heart rate (HR) predicts future cardiovascular events. We explored the predictive value of HR in patients with high-risk hypertension and examined whether blood pressure reduction modifies this association. The participants were 15,193 patients with hypertension enrolled in the Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-term Use Evaluation (VALUE) trial and followed up for 5 years. The HR was assessed from electrocardiographic recordings obtained annually throughout the study period. The primary end point was the interval to cardiac events. After adjustment for confounders, the hazard ratio of the composite cardiac primary end point for a 10-beats/min of the baseline HR increment was 1.16 (95% confidence interval 1.12 to 1.20). Compared to the lowest HR quintile, the adjusted hazard ratio in the highest quintile was 1.73 (95% confidence interval 1.46 to 2.04). Compared to the pooled lower quintiles of baseline HR, the annual incidence of primary end point in the top baseline quintile was greater in each of the 5 study years (all p <0.05). The adjusted hazard ratio for the primary end point in the highest in-trial HR heart rate quintile versus the lowest quintile was 1.53 (95% confidence interval 1.26 to 1.85). The incidence of primary end points in the highest in-trial HR group compared to the pooled 4 lower quintiles was 53% greater in patients with well-controlled blood pressure (p <0.001) and 34% greater in those with uncontrolled blood pressure (p = 0.002). In conclusion, an increased HR is a long-term predictor of cardiovascular events in patients with high-risk hypertension. This effect was not modified by good blood pressure control. It is not yet known whether a therapeutic reduction of HR would improve cardiovascular prognosis.

Intrathecal administration of Ziconotide: does single-shot injection predict efficacy?

Introduction: Though a trial of intrathecal (IT) therapy should always be performed before implantation of a definitive intrathecal pump, there is no agreement as to how this test should be performed. Ziconotide is trialed in most of cases with continuous IT administration using implanted catheters. Unlike other intrathecal drugs, there is little experience with single bolus IT injections of ziconotide. The aim of the study is to assess the feasibility of single-shot IT trialing with ziconotide. Patients and methods: Eleven consecutive patients with chronic neuropathic intractable pain were trialed with a single IT bolus of 2.5 mcg of ziconotide. Pain and side effects are monitored for at least 72 hours after the injection. Depending on the response, a second injection is given a week later, with either the same dose (if VAS decreased ≥50% without side effects), a higher dose of 3.75 mcg (if VAS decreased <50% without side effects) or a lower dose of 1.25 mcg (if VAS decreased ≥50% but with side effects). If VAS decreased less than 50% and side effects occurred, no further injection was performed. When VAS decreased >50% without side effects after the first or the second dose, the result is confirmed by one more injection of the same dose one week later. The trial is considered positive if two successive injections provide a VAS decreased more than 50% without side effects. Results: Eleven patients (6 females and 5 males) were included. Nine patients experienced modest or no pain relief. Four of these had significant side effects (dizziness, nausea, vomiting or abdominal pain) and had no further injection. In the others 5, one patient retired from study and four received a second injection of 3.75 mcg. The trial was negative in all 5 cases because of side effects (dizziness, drowsiness, weakness, muscle cramps), the pain decreased in only 2 patients. Two patients experienced profound pain relief with an IT injection of 2.5 mcg. One patient had no side effects and the other had dizziness and drowsiness that disappeared with an injection of 1.25 mcg. Pain relief without adverse effects was confirmed with the second injection. The trial was considered positive for those two patients. Discussion and conclusion: The response rate of 18% (2/11) is consistent with the success rate of a continuous infusion trialing with an implanted catheter. Single-shot injection of ziconotide may therefore predict efficacy.

Functional avidity: a measure to predict the efficacy of effector T cells?

The functional avidity is determined by exposing T-cell populations in vitro to different amounts of cognate antigen. T-cells with high functional avidity respond to low antigen doses. This in vitro measure is thought to correlate well with the in vivo effector capacity of T-cells. We here present the multifaceted factors determining and influencing the functional avidity of T-cells. We outline how changes in the functional avidity can occur over the course of an infection. This process, known as avidity maturation, can occur despite the fact that T-cells express a fixed TCR. Furthermore, examples are provided illustrating the importance of generating T-cell populations that exhibit a high functional avidity when responding to an infection or tumors. Furthermore, we discuss whether criteria based on which we evaluate an effective T-cell response to acute infections can also be applied to chronic infections such as HIV. Finally, we also focus on observations that high-avidity T-cells show higher signs of exhaustion and facilitate the emergence of virus escape variants. The review summarizes our current understanding of how this may occur as well as how T-cells of different functional avidity contribute to antiviral and anti-tumor immunity. Enhancing our knowledge in this field is relevant for tumor immunotherapy and vaccines design.

Can postictal memory predict postoperative memory in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy?

We investigated the contribution of postictal memory testing for lateralizing the epileptic focus and predicting memory outcome after surgery for temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE). Forty-five patients with TLE underwent interictal, postictal, and postoperative assessment of verbal and nonverbal memory. Surgery consisted of anterior temporal lobectomy (36), selective isolated amygdalohippocampectomy (6), or amygdalohippocampectomy coupled to lesionectomy (3). Postictal and postoperative but not interictal memory were significantly lower in left TLE than in right TLE. Nonverbal memory showed no significant difference in left TLE versus right TLE in all conditions. Postictal memory was significantly correlated with postoperative memory, but the effect disappeared when the lateralization of the focus was considered. Postictal verbal memory is a useful bedside tool that can help lateralize the epileptic focus. Larger studies are needed to further estimate its predictive value of the postoperative outcome.

Intrahepatic mRNA levels of SOCS1 and SOCS3 are associated with cirrhosis but do not predict virological response to therapy in chronic hepatitis C.

BACKGROUND: Antiviral treatment of chronic hepatitis C is not invariably successful, costly and associated with serious side-effects, and therefore should be indicated only when the chances of benefitting patients exceed the potential risks. The suppressor of cytokine signalling (SOCS) family members have been suggested to affect the rate of virological response to therapy, but the published evidence is conflicting. METHODS: We measured the intrahepatic SOCS1, SOCS3 and SOCS7 mRNA levels in 107 chronic hepatitis C patients and assessed their clinical and histological correlates with the virological response to therapy and with some factors known for affecting treatment outcome. RESULTS: By multivariate analysis, SOCS1, SOCS3 and SOCS7 mRNA levels were not associated with rapid or sustained virological response. Similarly, no association was found between the levels of any intrahepatic SOCS mRNA and those of the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance. Conversely, SOCS1 (OR 2.185, 95% CI 1.223-3.906, P=0.0083) and SOCS3 (OR 40.601, 95% CI 2.357-699.25, P=0.0108) mRNA level (but not SOCS7), together with age (OR 1.156, 95% CI 1.049-1.275, P=0.0036), were independently associated with cirrhosis. CONCLUSIONS: Intrahepatic SOCS1, SOCS3 and SOCS7 mRNA levels do not predict virological response to therapy in chronic hepatitis C. The association between SOCS1, SOCS3 and cirrhosis warrants further study.