Estimation procedures affect the center of pressure frequency analysis

Even though frequency analysis of body sway is widely applied in clinical studies, the lack of standardized procedures concerning power spectrum estimation may provide unreliable descriptors. Stabilometric tests were applied to 35 subjects (20-51 years, 54-95 kg, 1.6-1.9 m) and the power spectral density function was estimated for the anterior-posterior center of pressure time series. The median frequency was compared between power spectra estimated according to signal partitioning, sampling rate, test duration, and detrending methods. The median frequency reliability for different test durations was assessed using the intraclass correlation coefficient. When increasing number of segments, shortening test duration or applying linear detrending, the median frequency values increased significantly up to 137%. Even the shortest test duration provided reliable estimates as observed with the intraclass coefficient (0.74-0.89 confidence interval for a single 20-s test). Clinical assessment of balance may benefit from a standardized protocol for center of pressure spectral analysis that provides an adequate relationship between resolution and variance. An algorithm to estimate center of pressure power density spectrum is also proposed.

Bayesian analysis of SEIR epidemic models

This thesis concerns the analysis of epidemic models. We adopt the Bayesian paradigm and develop suitable Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. This is done by considering an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, former Zaïre, 1995 as a case of SEIR epidemic models. We model the Ebola epidemic deterministically using ODEs and stochastically through SDEs to take into account a possible bias in each compartment. Since the model has unknown parameters, we use different methods to estimate them such as least squares, maximum likelihood and MCMC. The motivation behind choosing MCMC over other existing methods in this thesis is that it has the ability to tackle complicated nonlinear problems with large number of parameters. First, in a deterministic Ebola model, we compute the likelihood function by sum of square of residuals method and estimate parameters using the LSQ and MCMC methods. We sample parameters and then use them to calculate the basic reproduction number and to study the disease-free equilibrium. From the sampled chain from the posterior, we test the convergence diagnostic and confirm the viability of the model. The results show that the Ebola model fits the observed onset data with high precision, and all the unknown model parameters are well identified. Second, we convert the ODE model into a SDE Ebola model. We compute the likelihood function using extended Kalman filter (EKF) and estimate parameters again. The motivation of using the SDE formulation here is to consider the impact of modelling errors. Moreover, the EKF approach allows us to formulate a filtered likelihood for the parameters of such a stochastic model. We use the MCMC procedure to attain the posterior distributions of the parameters of the SDE Ebola model drift and diffusion parts. In this thesis, we analyse two cases: (1) the model error covariance matrix of the dynamic noise is close to zero , i.e. only small stochasticity added into the model. The results are then similar to the ones got from deterministic Ebola model, even if methods of computing the likelihood function are different (2) the model error covariance matrix is different from zero, i.e. a considerable stochasticity is introduced into the Ebola model. This accounts for the situation where we would know that the model is not exact. As a results, we obtain parameter posteriors with larger variances. Consequently, the model predictions then show larger uncertainties, in accordance with the assumption of an incomplete model.

Bayesian Analysis for a Theory of Random Consumer Demand: The Case of Indivisible Goods

McCausland (2004a) describes a new theory of random consumer demand. Theoretically consistent random demand can be represented by a \"regular\" \"L-utility\" function on the consumption set X. The present paper is about Bayesian inference for regular L-utility functions. We express prior and posterior uncertainty in terms of distributions over the indefinite-dimensional parameter set of a flexible functional form. We propose a class of proper priors on the parameter set. The priors are flexible, in the sense that they put positive probability in the neighborhood of any L-utility function that is regular on a large subset bar(X) of X; and regular, in the sense that they assign zero probability to the set of L-utility functions that are irregular on bar(X). We propose methods of Bayesian inference for an environment with indivisible goods, leaving the more difficult case of indefinitely divisible goods for another paper. We analyse individual choice data from a consumer experiment described in Harbaugh et al. (2001).

Essays on numerically efficient inference in nonlinear and non-Gaussian state space models, and commodity market analysis.

The first two articles build procedures to simulate vector of univariate states and estimate parameters in nonlinear and non Gaussian state space models. We propose state space speci fications that offer more flexibility in modeling dynamic relationship with latent variables. Our procedures are extension of the HESSIAN method of McCausland[2012]. Thus, they use approximation of the posterior density of the vector of states that allow to : simulate directly from the state vector posterior distribution, to simulate the states vector in one bloc and jointly with the vector of parameters, and to not allow data augmentation. These properties allow to build posterior simulators with very high relative numerical efficiency. Generic, they open a new path in nonlinear and non Gaussian state space analysis with limited contribution of the modeler. The third article is an essay in commodity market analysis. Private firms coexist with farmers' cooperatives in commodity markets in subsaharan african countries. The private firms have the biggest market share while some theoretical models predict they disappearance once confronted to farmers cooperatives. Elsewhere, some empirical studies and observations link cooperative incidence in a region with interpersonal trust, and thus to farmers trust toward cooperatives. We propose a model that sustain these empirical facts. A model where the cooperative reputation is a leading factor determining the market equilibrium of a price competition between a cooperative and a private firm

Video-based postural sway analysis in a controlled environment

À mesure que la population des personnes agées dans les pays industrialisés augmente au fil de années, les ressources nécessaires au maintien du niveau de vie de ces personnes augmentent aussi. Des statistiques montrent que les chutes sont l’une des principales causes d’hospitalisation chez les personnes agées, et, de plus, il a été démontré que le risque de chute d’une personne agée a une correlation avec sa capacité de maintien de l’équilibre en étant debout. Il est donc d’intérêt de développer un système automatisé pour analyser l’équilibre chez une personne, comme moyen d’évaluation objective. Dans cette étude, nous avons proposé l’implémentation d’un tel système. En se basant sur une installation simple contenant une seule caméra sur un trépied, on a développé un algorithme utilisant une implémentation de la méthode de détection d’objet de Viola-Jones, ainsi qu’un appariement de gabarit, pour suivre autant le mouvement latéral que celui antérieur-postérieur d’un sujet. On a obtenu des bons résultats avec les deux types de suivi, cependant l’algorithme est sensible aux conditions d’éclairage, ainsi qu’à toute source de bruit présent dans les images. Il y aurait de l’intérêt, comme développement futur, d’intégrer les deux types de suivi, pour ainsi obtenir un seul ensemble de données facile à interpréter.

Hemodynamic changes during posterior epilepsies: an eeg-fnirs study

Posterior epilepsies are relatively rare, mainly suspected clinically by the presence of visual auras. Functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) is an emerging non-invasive imaging technique that has the potential to monitor hemodynamic changes during epileptic activity. Combined with electroencephalography (EEG), 9 patients with posterior epilepsies were recorded using EEG-fNIRS with large sampling (19 EEG electrodes and over 100 fNIRS channels). Spikes and seizures were carefully marked on EEG traces, and convolved with a standard hemodynamic response function for general linear model (GLM) analysis. GLM results for seizures (in 3 patients) and spikes (7 patients) were broadly sensitive to the epileptic focus in 7/9 patients, and specific in 5/9 patients with fNIRS deoxyhemoglobin responses lateralized to the correct lobe, and to plausible locations within the occipital or parietal lobes. This work provides evidence that EEG-fNIRS is a sensitive technique for monitoring posterior epileptic activity.

Not the outside but the inside matters : functional analysis of Capricious and Tartan during Drosophila tracheal morphogenesis

The tubular structures, which transport essential gases, liquids, or cells from one site to another, are shared among various divergent organisms. These highly organized tubular networks include lung, kidney, vasculature and mammary gland in mammals as well as trachea and salivary gland in Drosophila melanogaster. Many questions regarding the tubular morphogenesis cannot be addressed sufficiently by investigating the mammalian organs because their structures are extremely complex and therefore, systematic analyses of genetic and cellular programs guiding the development is not possible. In contrast, the Drosophila tracheal development provides an excellent model system since many molecular markers and powerful tools for genetic manipulations are available. Two mechanisms were shown to be important for the outgrowth of tracheal cells: the FGF signaling pathway and the interaction between the tracheal cells and the surrounding mesodermal cells. The Drosophila FGF ligand encoded by branchless (bnl) is localized in groups of cells near tracheal metameres. The tracheal cells expressing the FGF receptor breathless (btl) respond to these sources of FGF ligand and extend towards them. However, this FGF signaling pathway is not sufficient for the formation of continuous dorsal trunk, the only muticellular tube in tracheal system. Recently, it was found out that single mesodermal cells called bridge-cells are essential for the formation of continuous dorsal trunk as they direct the outgrowth of dorsal trunk cells towards the correct targets. The results in this PhD thesis demonstrate that a cell adhesion molecule Capricious (Caps), which is specifically localized on the surface of bridge-cells, plays an essential role in guiding the outgrowing dorsal trunk cells towards their correct targets. When caps is lacking, some bridge-cells cannot stretch properly towards the adjacent posterior tracheal metameres and thus fail to interconnect the juxtaposing dorsal trunk cells. Consequently, discontinuous dorsal trunks containing interruptions at several positions are formed. On the other hand, when caps is ectopically expressed in the mesodermal cells through a twi-GAL4 driver, these mesodermal cells acquire a guidance function through ectopic caps and misguide the outgrowing dorsal trunk cells in abnormal directions. As a result, disconnected dorsal trunks are formed. These loss- and gain-of-function studies suggest that Caps presumably establishes the cell-to-cell contact between the bridge-cells and the tracheal cells and thereby mediates directly the guidance function of bridge-cells. The most similar protein known to Caps is another cell adhesion molecule called Tartan (Trn). Interestingly, trn is expressed in the mesodermal cells but not in the bridge-cells. When trn is lacking, the outgrowth of not only the dorsal trunks but also the lateral trunks are disrupted. However, in contrast to the ectopic expression of caps, the misexpression of trn does not affect tracheal development. Whereas Trn requires only its extracellular domain to mediate the matrix function, Caps requires both its extracellular and intracellular domains to function as a guidance molecule in the bridge-cells. These observations suggest that Trn functions differently from Caps during tracheal morphogenesis. Presumably, Trn mediates a matrix function of mesodermal cells, which support the tracheal cells to extend efficiently through the surrounding mesodermal tissue. In order to determine which domains dictate the functional specificity of Caps, two hybrid proteins CapsEdTrnId, which contains the Caps extracellular domain and the Trn intracellular domain, and TrnEdCapsId, which consists of the Trn extracellular domain and the Caps intracellular domain, were constructed. Gain of function and rescue experiments with these hybrid proteins suggest on one hand that the extracellular domains of Caps and Trn are functionally redundant and on the other hand that the intracellular domain dictates the functional specificity of Caps. In order to identify putative interactors of Caps, yeast two-hybrid screening was performed. An in vivo interaction assay in yeast suggests that Ras64B interacts specifically with the Caps intracellular domain. In addition, an in vitro binding assay reveals a direct interaction between an inactive form of Ras64B and the Caps intracellular domain. ras64B, which encodes a small GTPase, is expressed in the mesodermal cells concurrently as caps. Finally, a gain-of-function study with the constitutively active Ras64B suggests that Ras64B presumably functions downstream of Caps. All these results suggest consistently that the small GTPase Ras64B binds specifically to the Caps intracellular domain and may thereby mediate the guidance function of Caps.

Los estereotipos judíos europeos en el cine posterior a la Segunda Guerra Mundial como aparato ideológico de representación

El presente trabajo de investigación hace un análisis sobre los estereotipos de los judíos en el cine posterior a la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Esta investigación se realizó a partir de la selección 8 filmes que permiten identificar la noción de Holocausto que ha determinado la construcción de un estereotipo de los judíos europeos que vivieron la Segunda Guerra Mundial, esto ha permitido la formación de imaginarios que a través del cine funcionan como aparato ideológico de representación. Los diferentes usos sociales de la imagen, así como los contextos de inserción de estas, estructuran un discurso que tiene como fin dar continuidad al proyecto educativo y la restauración de la memoria.

Supervivencia cáncer específica posterior a nefrectomía radical frente a nefrectomía parcial en carcinoma renal t2: revisión sistemática

Introducción: El tratamiento estándar para los tumores renales localizados es la nefrectomía radical, sin embargo debido a la variación el tamaño del tumor renal en el momento del diagnóstico, se ha reemplazado en algunos casos por la nefrectomía parcial. Objetivo: Este estudio busca comparar el resultado oncológico de la nefrectomía parcial en términos de supervivencia cáncer específica, respecto a la nefrectomía radical, en pacientes mayores de 50 años con carcinoma renal estadio II (T2N0M0) Métodos: Se realizó una revisión sistemática de la literatura, con inclusión de estudios de casos y controles, cohortes y experimentos clínicos aleatorizados incluidos en las bases de datos de MEDLINE , EMBASE y CENTRAL Resultados: La búsqueda inicial emitió un total de 101 resultados, 11 artículos fueron preseleccionados y sólo un artículo cumplió con los criterios de selección; éste se clasificó como nivel de evidencia II. Conclusión: No fue posible concluir su equivalencia oncológica de la nefrectomía radical con la nefrectomía parcial, dado que no hay diseños de estudios que permitan llegar a esta conclusión.

Cambios maculares y de capa de fibras nerviosas ganglionares posterior a la vitrectomía pars plana y sus factores pronósticos en la fundación oftalmológica nacional

OBJETIVOS: Determinar los factores pronóstico, cambios maculares morfológicos y de capa de fibras nerviosas ganglionares posterior a vitrectomía pars plana, en la Fundación Oftalmológica Nacional. MATERIALES Y MÉTODOS: Estudio longitudinal de antes y después (3y6 meses) de la vitrectomía pars plana (VPP) en pacientes con membrana epirretiniana, agujero macular, síndrome de tracción vítreo macular y opacidades vítreas no-inflamatorias. Se realizó seguimiento clínico y con tomografía de coherencia óptica. RESULTADOS: Grupo de 60 pacientes (mujeres 65.0%), edad promedio 65.45+9.49años y tiempo de enfermedad promedio 23+29.79meses. Las indicaciones de VPP (n=60ojos) fueron agujero macular (38.3%) y membrana epirretiniana (36.7%). Se encontró diferencia significativa entre grosor del complejo capa de células ganglionares (CCG)+capa plexiforme interna (CPI) inicial y 3 meses (p=0.039), correlación entre grosor del complejo CCG+CPI al tercer y sexto mes (r=0.704,p<0.001) y grosor del complejo CCG+CPI al tercer mes con grosor foveal central (CFT) al tercer y sexto mes (r=–0.594,p<0.001 y r=–0.595,p=0.001). Mayores de 65años tenían menor grosor de CFNG a 6meses (r=-0.528,p=0.007). El grosor de CFNG promedio y la presencia de la zona elipsoide inicial fueron factores pronósticos de buena agudeza visual al tercer mes de VPP (r2=0.414,p=0.018, y r2=0.414,p=0.010). CONCLUSIÓN: El grosor de CFNG y la presencia de la zona elipsoide inicial tienen alta capacidad predictiva de buena agudeza visual al tercer mes de VPP, y, correlación inversa entre grosor del complejo CCG+CPI con CFT al tercer y sexto mes de VPP.

Predictores de cambio en la función ventricular izquierda posterior a implante valvular aórtico transcateter comparado con reemplazo valvular aórtico quirúrgico en el hospital universitario fundación Cardioinfantil instituto de cardiología – Bogotá

Objetivos: Identificar predictores de recuperación de la función ventricular izquierda y comparar los hallazgos ecocardiográficos en pacientes con estenosis aórtica crítica sometidos a reemplazo quirúrgico de la válvula aórtica (RVA) o implantación de válvula aórtica transcatéter (TAVI). Métodos: Cuarenta y cuatro pacientes tratados con RVA se compararon con 34 pacientes con TAVI, los datos ecocardiográficos fueron retrospectivamente obtenidos antes de la intervención y previo al alta. Resultados: Se analizaron retrospectivamente pacientes tratados en la FCI - IC desde 2009 - 2015 (n = 78 pacientes, con una media de edad 70,29 ± 11,63, EuroSCORE logístico 3,75 (3-8,55) en RVA y 20,4 (15 , 47-23,32) en TAVI. Ambos grupos mostraron una disminución en los gradientes de la válvula aórtica, más en pacientes de TAVI, con un gradiente transaórtico pico (24,5 vs 18,5, p = 0,001) y medio (14 vs 10, p = 0,002) En comparación con RVA, TAVI presentó un mayor número de pacientes con insuficiencia aórtica paravalvular (47,1% frente a 2,3% p = 0.000). En total, el 61,5% presentó mejoría precoz de la función ventricular, el predictor en severo compromiso de la función del ventrículo izquierdo fue un alto índice de masa ventricular izquierda. Conclusiones: La implantación transcatéter de válvula aórtica es una alternativa al reemplazo quirúrgico de la válvula aórtica en pacientes con estenosis aórtica y alto riesgo quirúrgico. La recuperación postoperatoria precoz de la función ventricular izquierda en pacientes con severo compromiso de la función ventricular estuvo asociada a alto índice de masa ventricular izquierda.

Comportamiento del desprendimiento del vítreo posterior en los pacientes expuestos a cirugía de catarata

Objetivo: Describir el comportamiento del desprendimiento del vítreo posterior (DVP) en pacientes expuestos a cirugía de catarata mediante la biomicroscopia, la ecografía ocular y la tomografía de coherencia óptica macular. Materiales y métodos: Se realizó un estudio descriptivo, una serie de casos clínicos de 13 pacientes expuestos a cirugía de catarata en la Fundación Oftalmológica Nacional entre febrero a julio de 2015, con seguimiento a 12 meses. Durante 6 visitas se les realizó toma de agudeza visual mejor corregida y biomicroscopía. Tambíen se les realizó ecografia ocular y tomografia de coherencia óptica macular. Resultados: El porcentaje de DVP por biomicroscopia cambió desde un 7.7% a un 38.4%. El porcentaje de DVP por ecografía en el área nasal cambió de 92.3% a 76.9%. En el área temporal la tasa de DVP cambió de 84.6% y a 76.9%. En al área superior se mantuvo en un 61.5%. En el área inferior varió de un 69.2% a un 76.9%. Y por último, en el área macular de un 53.8% a un 76.9%. El porcentaje de DVP por OCT cambio desde un 69.2% a un 76.9%, en la visita cero y la visita cuatro, respectivamente. Conclusiones: La cirugía de catarata acelera el proceso del DVP. Hubo una progresión del DVP según la biomicroscopia y el OCT, la ecografía no la consideramos una herramiento eficaz para describir la progresión del DVP. 


Bayesian analysis of correlated evolution of discrete characters by reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo

We describe a Bayesian method for investigating correlated evolution of discrete binary traits on phylogenetic trees. The method fits a continuous-time Markov model to a pair of traits, seeking the best fitting models that describe their joint evolution on a phylogeny. We employ the methodology of reversible-jump ( RJ) Markov chain Monte Carlo to search among the large number of possible models, some of which conform to independent evolution of the two traits, others to correlated evolution. The RJ Markov chain visits these models in proportion to their posterior probabilities, thereby directly estimating the support for the hypothesis of correlated evolution. In addition, the RJ Markov chain simultaneously estimates the posterior distributions of the rate parameters of the model of trait evolution. These posterior distributions can be used to test among alternative evolutionary scenarios to explain the observed data. All results are integrated over a sample of phylogenetic trees to account for phylogenetic uncertainty. We implement the method in a program called RJ Discrete and illustrate it by analyzing the question of whether mating system and advertisement of estrus by females have coevolved in the Old World monkeys and great apes.

Genetic analysis of complex demographic scenarios: Spatially expanding populations of the cane toad, Bufo marinus

Inferring the spatial expansion dynamics of invading species from molecular data is notoriously difficult due to the complexity of the processes involved. For these demographic scenarios, genetic data obtained from highly variable markers may be profitably combined with specific sampling schemes and information from other sources using a Bayesian approach. The geographic range of the introduced toad Bufo marinus is still expanding in eastern and northern Australia, in each case from isolates established around 1960. A large amount of demographic and historical information is available on both expansion areas. In each area, samples were collected along a transect representing populations of different ages and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Five demographic models of expansion, differing in the dispersal pattern for migrants and founders and in the number of founders, were considered. Because the demographic history is complex, we used an approximate Bayesian method, based on a rejection-regression algorithm. to formally test the relative likelihoods of the five models of expansion and to infer demographic parameters. A stepwise migration-foundation model with founder events was statistically better supported than other four models in both expansion areas. Posterior distributions supported different dynamics of expansion in the studied areas. Populations in the eastern expansion area have a lower stable effective population size and have been founded by a smaller number of individuals than those in the northern expansion area. Once demographically stabilized, populations exchange a substantial number of effective migrants per generation in both expansion areas, and such exchanges are larger in northern than in eastern Australia. The effective number of migrants appears to be considerably lower than that of founders in both expansion areas. We found our inferences to be relatively robust to various assumptions on marker. demographic, and historical features. The method presented here is the only robust, model-based method available so far, which allows inferring complex population dynamics over a short time scale. It also provides the basis for investigating the interplay between population dynamics, drift, and selection in invasive species.

Gaussian anamorphosis in the analysis step of the EnKF: a joint state-variable/observation approach

The analysis step of the (ensemble) Kalman filter is optimal when (1) the distribution of the background is Gaussian, (2) state variables and observations are related via a linear operator, and (3) the observational error is of additive nature and has Gaussian distribution. When these conditions are largely violated, a pre-processing step known as Gaussian anamorphosis (GA) can be applied. The objective of this procedure is to obtain state variables and observations that better fulfil the Gaussianity conditions in some sense. In this work we analyse GA from a joint perspective, paying attention to the effects of transformations in the joint state variable/observation space. First, we study transformations for state variables and observations that are independent from each other. Then, we introduce a targeted joint transformation with the objective to obtain joint Gaussianity in the transformed space. We focus primarily in the univariate case, and briefly comment on the multivariate one. A key point of this paper is that, when (1)-(3) are violated, using the analysis step of the EnKF will not recover the exact posterior density in spite of any transformations one may perform. These transformations, however, provide approximations of different quality to the Bayesian solution of the problem. Using an example in which the Bayesian posterior can be analytically computed, we assess the quality of the analysis distributions generated after applying the EnKF analysis step in conjunction with different GA options. The value of the targeted joint transformation is particularly clear for the case when the prior is Gaussian, the marginal density for the observations is close to Gaussian, and the likelihood is a Gaussian mixture.