946 resultados para Over-dispersion, Crash prediction, Bayesian method, Intersection safety
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We present in this article several possibilities to approach the height of an algebraic curve defined over a number field : as an intersection number via the Arakelov theory, as a limit point of the heights of its algebraic points and, finally, using the minimal degree of Belyi functions.
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Between 1986 and 1987 fishes distributed among the following species introduced in Chile, and from different sectors of the Valdivia river basin (39º30' - 40º00', 73º30' - 71º45'W), were examined: 348 Salmo trutta, 242 Salmo gairdneri, 24 Cyprinus carpio and 52 Gambusia affinis holbrooki. The presence of Camallanus corderoi and Contracaecum sp. in S. gairdneri and of C. corderoi in S. trutta is recorded in Chile for the first time. Cyprinus carpio and G. a. holbrooki did not present infections by nematodes. The prevalence and mean intensity of the infections by nematodes presented significant differences among some sectors of the Valdivia river basin. In general, the prevalence and intensity of the infections by C. corderoi were greater than those by Contracaecum sp. The infections in S. gairdneri were higher than in S. trutta. The sex of the hosts had no influence on the prevalence and intensity of the infections by both nematodes. The length of the hosts did have an influence, except in the case of the infections by Contracaecum sp. in S, gairdneri. The infrapopulations of both nematode species showed over dispersion in most cases. The diet of the examined salmonids suggests that they would become infected principally throught the consuption of autochthonous fishes.
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AIM: Phylogenetic diversity patterns are increasingly being used to better understand the role of ecological and evolutionary processes in community assembly. Here, we quantify how these patterns are influenced by scale choices in terms of spatial and environmental extent and organismic scales. LOCATION: European Alps. METHODS: We applied 42 sampling strategies differing in their combination of focal scales. For each resulting sub-dataset, we estimated the phylogenetic diversity of the species pools, phylogenetic α-diversities of local communities, and statistics commonly used together with null models in order to infer non-random diversity patterns (i.e. phylogenetic clustering versus over-dispersion). Finally, we studied the effects of scale choices on these measures using regression analyses. RESULTS: Scale choices were decisive for revealing signals in diversity patterns. Notably, changes in focal scales sometimes reversed a pattern of over-dispersion into clustering. Organismic scale had a stronger effect than spatial and environmental extent. However, we did not find general rules for the direction of change from over-dispersion to clustering with changing scales. Importantly, these scale issues had only a weak influence when focusing on regional diversity patterns that change along abiotic gradients. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Our results call for caution when combining phylogenetic data with distributional data to study how and why communities differ from random expectations of phylogenetic relatedness. These analyses seem to be robust when the focus is on relating community diversity patterns to variation in habitat conditions, such as abiotic gradients. However, if the focus is on identifying relevant assembly rules for local communities, the uncertainty arising from a certain scale choice can be immense. In the latter case, it becomes necessary to test whether emerging patterns are robust to alternative scale choices.
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There is anecdotal evidence that athletes use the banned substance Synacthen because of its perceived benefit with its associated rise in cortisol. To test the performance-enhancing effects of Synacthen, eight trained cyclists completed two, 2-day exercise sessions separated by 7-10 days. On the first day of each 2-day exercise session, subjects received either Synacthen (0.25 mg, TX) or placebo (PLA) injection. Performance was assessed by a 20-km time trial (TT) after a 90-min fatigue period on day 1 and without the fatiguing protocol on day 2. Plasma androgens and ACTH concentrations were measured during the exercise bouts as well as the rate of perceived exertion (RPE). Spot urines were analyzed for androgens and glucocorticoids quantification. Basal plasma hormones did not differ significantly between PLA and TX groups before and 24 h after the IM injection (P > 0.05). After TX injection, ACTH peaked at 30 min and hormone profiles were significantly different compared to the PLA trial (P < 0.001). RPE increased significantly in both groups as the exercise sessions progressed (P < 0.001) but was not influenced by treatment. The time to completion of the TT was not affected on both days by Synacthen treatment. In the present study, a single IM injection of synthetic ACTH did not improve either acute or subsequent cycling performance and did not influence perceived exertion. The investigated urinary hormones did not vary after treatment, reinforcing the difficulty for ACTH abuse detection.
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OBJECTIVES: Darunavir was designed for activity against HIV resistant to other protease inhibitors (PIs). We assessed the efficacy, tolerability and risk factors for virological failure of darunavir for treatment-experienced patients seen in clinical practice. METHODS: We included all patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study starting darunavir after recording a viral load above 1000 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL given prior exposure to both PIs and nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors. We followed these patients for up to 72 weeks, assessed virological failure using different loss of virological response algorithms and evaluated risk factors for virological failure using a Bayesian method to fit discrete Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Among 130 treatment-experienced patients starting darunavir, the median age was 47 years, the median duration of HIV infection was 16 years, and 82% received mono or dual antiretroviral therapy before starting highly active antiretroviral therapy. During a median patient follow-up period of 45 weeks, 17% of patients stopped taking darunavir after a median exposure of 20 weeks. In patients followed beyond 48 weeks, the rate of virological failure at 48 weeks was at most 20%. Virological failure was more likely where patients had previously failed on both amprenavir and saquinavir and as the number of previously failed PI regimens increased. CONCLUSIONS: As a component of therapy for treatment-experienced patients, darunavir can achieve a similar efficacy and tolerability in clinical practice to that seen in clinical trials. Clinicians should consider whether a patient has failed on both amprenavir and saquinavir and the number of failed PI regimens before prescribing darunavir.
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BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The genus Olea (Oleaceae) includes approx. 40 taxa of evergreen shrubs and trees classified in three subgenera, Olea, Paniculatae and Tetrapilus, the first of which has two sections (Olea and Ligustroides). Olive trees (the O. europaea complex) have been the subject of intensive research, whereas little is known about the phylogenetic relationships among the other species. To clarify the biogeographical history of this group, a molecular analysis of Olea and related genera of Oleaceae is thus necessary. METHODS: A phylogeny was built of Olea and related genera based on sequences of the nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer-1 and four plastid regions. Lineage divergence and the evolution of abaxial peltate scales, the latter character linked to drought adaptation, were dated using a Bayesian method. KEY RESULTS: Olea is polyphyletic, with O. ambrensis and subgenus Tetrapilus not sharing a most recent common ancestor with the main Olea clade. Partial incongruence between nuclear and plastid phylogenetic reconstructions suggests a reticulation process in the evolution of subgenus Olea. Estimates of divergence times for major groups of Olea during the Tertiary were obtained. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates the necessity of revising current taxonomic boundaries in Olea. The results also suggest that main lines of evolution were promoted by major Tertiary climatic shifts: (1) the split between subgenera Olea and Paniculatae appears to have taken place at the Miocene-Oligocene boundary; (2) the separation of sections Ligustroides and Olea may have occurred during the Early Miocene following the Mi-1 glaciation; and (3) the diversification within these sections (and the origin of dense abaxial indumentum in section Olea) was concomitant with the aridification of Africa in the Late Miocene.
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This work presents models and methods that have been used in producing forecasts of population growth. The work is intended to emphasize the reliability bounds of the model forecasts. Leslie model and various versions of logistic population models are presented. References to literature and several studies are given. A lot of relevant methodology has been developed in biological sciences. The Leslie modelling approach involves the use of current trends in mortality,fertility, migration and emigration. The model treats population divided in age groups and the model is given as a recursive system. Other group of models is based on straightforward extrapolation of census data. Trajectories of simple exponential growth function and logistic models are used to produce the forecast. The work presents the basics of Leslie type modelling and the logistic models, including multi- parameter logistic functions. The latter model is also analysed from model reliability point of view. Bayesian approach and MCMC method are used to create error bounds of the model predictions.
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The purpose of this study is to examine macroeconomic indicators‟ and technical analysis‟ ability to signal market crashes. Indicators examined were Yield Spread, The Purchasing Managers Index and the Consumer Confidence Index. Technical Analysis indicators were moving average, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence and Relative Strength Index. We studied if commonly used macroeconomic indicators can be used as a warning system for a stock market crashes as well. The hypothesis is that the signals of recession can be used as signals of stock market crash and that way a basis for a hedging strategy. The data is collected from the U.S. markets from the years 1983-2010. Empirical studies show that macroeconomic indicators have been able to explain the future GDP development in the U.S. in research period and they were statistically significant. A hedging strategy that combined the signals of yield spread and Consumer Confidence Index gave most useful results as a basis of a hedging strategy in selected time period. It was able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy as well as all of the technical indicator based hedging strategies.
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Sequestration of carbon dioxide in mineral rocks, also known as CO2 Capture and Mineralization (CCM), is considered to have a huge potential in stabilizing anthropogenic CO2 emissions. One of the CCM routes is the ex situ indirect gas/sold carbonation of reactive materials, such as Mg(OH)2, produced from abundantly available Mg-silicate rocks. The gas/solid carbonation method is intensively researched at Åbo Akademi University (ÅAU ), Finland because it is energetically attractive and utilizes the exothermic chemistry of Mg(OH)2 carbonation. In this thesis, a method for producing Mg(OH)2 from Mg-silicate rocks for CCM was investigated, and the process efficiency, energy and environmental impact assessed. The Mg(OH)2 process studied here was first proposed in 2008 in a Master’s Thesis by the author. At that time the process was applied to only one Mg-silicate rock (Finnish serpentinite from the Hitura nickel mine site of Finn Nickel) and the optimum process conversions, energy and environmental performance were not known. Producing Mg(OH)2 from Mg-silicate rocks involves a two-staged process of Mg extraction and Mg(OH)2 precipitation. The first stage extracts Mg and other cations by reacting pulverized serpentinite or olivine rocks with ammonium sulfate (AS) salt at 400 - 550 oC (preferably < 450 oC). In the second stage, ammonia solution reacts with the cations (extracted from the first stage after they are leached in water) to form mainly FeOOH, high purity Mg(OH)2 and aqueous (dissolved) AS. The Mg(OH)2 process described here is closed loop in nature; gaseous ammonia and water vapour are produced from the extraction stage, recovered and used as reagent for the precipitation stage. The AS reagent is thereafter recovered after the precipitation stage. The Mg extraction stage, being the conversion-determining and the most energy-intensive step of the entire CCM process chain, received a prominent attention in this study. The extraction behavior and reactivity of different rocks types (serpentinite and olivine rocks) from different locations worldwide (Australia, Finland, Lithuania, Norway and Portugal) was tested. Also, parametric evaluation was carried out to determine the optimal reaction temperature, time and chemical reagent (AS). Effects of reactor types and configuration, mixing and scale-up possibilities were also studied. The Mg(OH)2 produced can be used to convert CO2 to thermodynamically stable and environmentally benign magnesium carbonate. Therefore, the process energy and life cycle environmental performance of the ÅAU CCM technique that first produces Mg(OH)2 and the carbonates in a pressurized fluidized bed (FB) were assessed. The life cycle energy and environmental assessment approach applied in this thesis is motivated by the fact that the CCM technology should in itself offer a solution to what is both an energy and environmental problem. Results obtained in this study show that different Mg-silicate rocks react differently; olivine rocks being far less reactive than serpentinite rocks. In summary, the reactivity of Mg-silicate rocks is a function of both the chemical and physical properties of rocks. Reaction temperature and time remain important parameters to consider in process design and operation. Heat transfer properties of the reactor determine the temperature at which maximum Mg extraction is obtained. Also, an increase in reaction temperature leads to an increase in the extent of extraction, reaching a maximum yield at different temperatures depending on the reaction time. Process energy requirement for producing Mg(OH)2 from a hypothetical case of an iron-free serpentine rock is 3.62 GJ/t-CO2. This value can increase by 16 - 68% depending on the type of iron compound (FeO, Fe2O3 or Fe3O4) in the mineral. This suggests that the benefit from the potential use of FeOOH as an iron ore feedstock in iron and steelmaking should be determined by considering the energy, cost and emissions associated with the FeOOH by-product. AS recovery through crystallization is the second most energy intensive unit operation after the extraction reaction. However, the choice of mechanical vapor recompression (MVR) over the “simple evaporation” crystallization method has a potential energy savings of 15.2 GJ/t-CO2 (84 % savings). Integrating the Mg(OH)2 production method and the gas/solid carbonation process could provide up to an 25% energy offset to the CCM process energy requirements. Life cycle inventory assessment (LCIA) results show that for every ton of CO2 mineralized, the ÅAU CCM process avoids 430 - 480 kg CO2. The Mg(OH)2 process studied in this thesis has many promising features. Even at the current high energy and environmental burden, producing Mg(OH)2 from Mg-silicates can play a significant role in advancing CCM processes. However, dedicated future research and development (R&D) have potential to significantly improve the Mg(OH)2 process performance.
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Cette thèse invite à reconceptualiser le récit dominant quant au parcours d’hommes immigrants de sexualités non normatives. Loin d’être une migration de la tradition vers la modernité, de l’oppression vers la libération, leur parcours est davantage un récit complexe de mobilité et de visibilité inscrit dans des rapports sociaux inégaux. Loin d’être un déchirement entre une «communauté ethnique» homophobe et la «communauté gaie» raciste, leur récit en est un de liens affectifs (r)établis au fil d’interactions sociales significatives. À l’intersection de normes multiples et contradictoires, on constate un processus de (re)formation de subjectivités, à la fois contraintes et habilités par ces normes. Deux corpus sont conjugués, soit l’analyse critique des représentations visuelles et textuelles de la différence ethnique et religieuse dans trois principaux magazines gais québécois et l’analyse par théorisation ancrée d’entretiens semi-dirigés. Ces entretiens ont été menés à Montréal auprès de trente hommes immigrants ayant des relations amoureuses et/ou sexuelles avec d’autres hommes. Les images analysées montrent une tendance à réduire le corps d’hommes de couleur à des objets érotiques et exotiques sur les couvertures des magazines. De plus, les textes avancent un récit de libération sexuelle par la migration qui reproduit les dichotomies dominantes. Un récit beaucoup plus complexe émerge toutefois de l’analyse des entretiens. D’une part, l’expérience de la migration est modulée par divers phénomènes sociaux au-delà de la seule libération sexuelle et l’homophobie se révèle insuffisante pour comprendre le statut des sexualités non normatives, tant dans les pays d’origine que dans les «communautés ethniques» : c’est davantage l’hétéronormativité qui a pour effet de rendre inférieures certaines pratiques de genre et de sexualités. D’autre part, l’expérience de cette visibilité contrainte ne s’exprime que très partiellement par l’idée du «placard» : ces hommes expriment plutôt le vaste potentiel d’expérience d’un espace «tacite» permettant, pour plusieurs, de vivre leur sexualité non normative sans la dire explicitement. Au contraire du rejet des accommodements religieux exprimé dans les magazines gais, les entretiens montrent finalement un réel potentiel d’accommodation du religieux et du sexuel qui, en dépit de tensions, préserve la foi religieuse ou spiritualité tout en vivant la sexualité.
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Demonstration videos can be found on fr.linkedin.com/in/doriangomez/
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Introduction. Le VIH-1 évolue en fonction de la réponse immunitaire spécifique de l’hôte. La pression sélective exercée par la réponse immunitaire VIH-spécifique de l’hôte entraine l’évolution des gènes viraux et à terme détermine l’évolution de la maladie. Cette évolution du virus à l’échelle d’un individu façonne également l’évolution du virus à l’échelle de la population et détermine le devenir de l’épidémie. Le VIH utilise les corécepteurs d’entrée CCR5 (virus R5) et CXCR4 (virus X4) afin d’infecter la cellule cible, et l’évolution du tropisme du virus de R5 vers X4, appelé switch du tropisme, est associé à la progression de la maladie. Les virus R5 sont rencontrés en début d’infection tandis que les virus X4 apparaissent en fin de maladie chez un certain de nombre de patients et sont considérés comme plus virulents. La pression sélective immunitaire exercée sur le gène de l’enveloppe (env) peut donc entrainer l’évolution du tropisme du VIH. La grossesse est un état immunitaire particulier considéré comme étant principalement caractérisé par un biais Th2 nécessaire à l’établissement de la tolérance materno-fétale. Le switch de tropisme de R5 vers X4 en grossesse n’a jamais été documenté, de même que l’évolution des déterminants du tropisme à l’échelle de la population. Hypothèses. Les changements immunitaires associés à l’initiation et la progression de la grossesse engendrent des changements dans la pression immunitaire exercée sur l’enveloppe et peuvent favoriser le switch du tropisme. L’évolution du tropisme du VIH-1 peut être observé à l’échelle de la population au même titre que l’évolution de l’enveloppe virale. Objectifs. Analyser l’évolution du tropisme et décrire la pression sélective sur l’enveloppe des femmes enceintes infectées par le VIH-1. Analyser l’évolution des déterminants du tropisme à l’échelle de la population. Méthodes. Nous avons dans un premier temps analysé l’évolution des déterminants du tropisme et déterminé le génotype et phénotype du VIH-1 chez 19 femmes enceintes issues de la cohorte du centre maternel et infantile sur le SIDA de l’hôpital Sainte-Justine (CMIS). Nous avons ensuite caractérisé et comparé la pression sélective exercée sur env, par une méthode bayésienne, chez 31 femmes enceinte et 29 femmes non-enceintes. Enfin, nous avons analysé et comparé des déterminants du tropisme entre des séquences d’enveloppe contemporaines et anciennes, issues des bases de données du NCBI. Résultats. Nos résultats montrent la présence de virus X4 chez la moitié de notre cohorte, et un switch de tropisme de R5 vers X4 chez 5/19 sujets. Les séquences des femmes enceintes présentaient des taux de substitutions plus élevées que celles des femmes non-enceintes. La pression sélective dans la région C2 était plus faible chez les femmes enceintes que chez les femmes non-enceintes, et différait dans 4 positions entre ces 2 groupes. Cette sélection diminuait au cours de la grossesse chez les patientes traitées. Enfin, une accumulation de mutations X4 a été observée dans les séquences R5 contemporaines par rapport aux séquences R5 anciennes. Conclusion. Les changements immunitaires associés à la grossesse semblent induire des modifications subtiles dans la pression sélective exercée sur env, suffisant à influencer l’évolution du tropisme de R5 vers X4. Un switch du tropisme à l’échelle de la population impliquerait une épidémie évoluant vers une plus grande virulence du virus. Nos résultats sont d’importance en ce qui concerne la prophylaxie antirétrovirale pour la santé de la mère et la prévention de la transmission mère-enfant du VIH-1. Ils sont aussi importants concernant l’avenir de la thérapie antirétrovirale dans le contexte d’une épidémie évoluant vers une plus grande virulence
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Bayesian inference has been used to determine rigorous estimates of hydroxyl radical concentrations () and air mass dilution rates (K) averaged following air masses between linked observations of nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) spanning the North Atlantic during the Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation (ITCT)-Lagrangian-2K4 experiment. The Bayesian technique obtains a refined (posterior) distribution of a parameter given data related to the parameter through a model and prior beliefs about the parameter distribution. Here, the model describes hydrocarbon loss through OH reaction and mixing with a background concentration at rate K. The Lagrangian experiment provides direct observations of hydrocarbons at two time points, removing assumptions regarding composition or sources upstream of a single observation. The estimates are sharpened by using many hydrocarbons with different reactivities and accounting for their variability and measurement uncertainty. A novel technique is used to construct prior background distributions of many species, described by variation of a single parameter . This exploits the high correlation of species, related by the first principal component of many NMHC samples. The Bayesian method obtains posterior estimates of , K and following each air mass. Median values are typically between 0.5 and 2.0 × 106 molecules cm−3, but are elevated to between 2.5 and 3.5 × 106 molecules cm−3, in low-level pollution. A comparison of estimates from absolute NMHC concentrations and NMHC ratios assuming zero background (the “photochemical clock” method) shows similar distributions but reveals systematic high bias in the estimates from ratios. Estimates of K are ∼0.1 day−1 but show more sensitivity to the prior distribution assumed.
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This study compares the infant mortality profiles of 128 infants from two urban and two rural cemetery sites in medieval England. The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of urbanization and industrialization in terms of endogenous or exogenous causes of death. In order to undertake this analysis, two different methods of estimating gestational age from long bone lengths were used: a traditional regression method and a Bayesian method. The regression method tended to produce more marked peaks at 38 weeks, while the Bayesian method produced a broader range of ages and were more comparable with the expected "natural" mortality profiles. At all the sites, neonatal mortality (28-40 weeks) outweighed post-neonatal mortality (41-48 weeks) with rural Raunds Furnells in Northamptonshire, showing the highest number of neonatal deaths and post-medieval Spitalfields, London, showing a greater proportion of deaths due to exogenous or environmental factors. Of the four sites under study, Wharram Percy in Yorkshire showed the most convincing "natural" infant mortality profile, suggesting the inclusion of all births (i.e., stillbirths and unbaptised infants).