Gaussian processes for classification: mean field algorithms:mean-field algorithms

We derive a mean field algorithm for binary classification with Gaussian processes which is based on the TAP approach originally proposed in Statistical Physics of disordered systems. The theory also yields an approximate leave-one-out estimator for the generalization error which is computed with no extra computational cost. We show that from the TAP approach, it is possible to derive both a simpler 'naive' mean field theory and support vector machines (SVM) as limiting cases. For both mean field algorithms and support vectors machines, simulation results for three small benchmark data sets are presented. They show 1. that one may get state of the art performance by using the leave-one-out estimator for model selection and 2. the built-in leave-one-out estimators are extremely precise when compared to the exact leave-one-out estimate. The latter result is a taken as a strong support for the internal consistency of the mean field approach.

Mechanics of rolling continuously cast stock

A review of published literature was made to establish the fundamental aspects of rolling and allow an experimental programme to be planned. Simulated hot rolling tests, using pure lead as a model material, were performed on a laboratory mill to obtain data on load and torque when rolling square section stock. Billet metallurgy and consolidation of representative defects was studied when modelling the rolling of continuously cast square stock with a view to determining optimal reduction schedules that would result in a product having properties to the high level found in fully wrought billets manufactured from large ingots. It is difficult to characterize sufficiently the complexity of the porous central region in a continuously cast billet for accurate modelling. However, holes drilled into a lead billet prior to rolling was found to be a good means of assessing central void consolidation in the laboratory. A rolling schedule of 30% (1.429:1) per pass to a total of 60% (2.5:1) will give a homogeneous, fully recrystallized product. To achieve central consolidation, a total reduction of approximately 70% (3.333:1) is necessary. At the reduction necessary to achieve consolidation, full recrystallization is assured. A theoretical analysis using a simplified variational principle with experimentally derived spread data has been developed for a homogeneous material. An upper bound analysis of a single, centrally situated void has been shown to give good predictions of void closure with reduction and the reduction required for void closure for initial void area fractions 0.45%. A limited number of tests in the works has indicated compliance with the results for void closure obtained in the laboratory.

Collaborative Learning and Authoring in the Frame of e-Projects

It is presented a research on the application of a collaborative learning and authoring during all delivery phases of e-learning programmes or e-courses offered by educational institutions. The possibilities for modelling of an e-project as a specific management process based on planned, dynamically changing or accidentally arising sequences of learning activities, is discussed. New approaches for project-based and collaborative learning and authoring are presented. Special types of test questions are introduced which allow test generation and authoring based on learners’ answers accumulated in the frame of given e-course. Experiments are carried out in an e-learning environment, named BEST.

Method of Linear Programming as an Idea for High School Curriculum

2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: 97D40, 97M10, 97M40, 97N60, 97N80, 97R80

Time series of air chemistry measurements at Georg-von-Neumayer station, Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica in the years 1982 to 1991

The first Air Chemistry Observatory at the German Antarctic station Georg von Neumayer (GvN) was operated for 10 years from 1982 to 1991. The focus of the established observational programme was on characterizing the physical properties and chemical composition of the aerosol, as well as on monitoring the changing trace gas composition of the background atmosphere, especially concerning greenhouse gases. The observatory was designed by the Institut für Umweltphysik, University of Heidelberg (UHEIIUP). The experiments were installed inside the bivouac lodge, mounted on a sledge and put upon a snow hill to prevent snow accumulation during blizzards. All experiments were under daily control and daily performance protocols were documented. A ventilated stainless steel inlet stack (total height about 3-4 m above the snow surface) with a 50% aerodynamic cut-off diameter around 7-10 µm at wind velocities between 4-10 m/s supplied all experiments with ambient air. Contamination free sampling was realized by several means: (i) The Air Chemistry Observatory was situated in a clean air area about 1500 m south of GvN. Due to the fact that northern wind directions are very rare, contamination from the base can be excluded for most of the time. (ii) The power supply (20 kW) is provided by a cable from the main station, thus no fuel-driven generator is operated in the very vicinity. (iii) Contamination-free sampling is controlled by the permanently recorded wind velocity, wind direction and by condensation particle concentration. Contamination was indicated if one of the following criteria were given: Wind direction within a 330°-30° sector, wind velocity <2.2 m/s or >17.5 m/s, or condensation particle concentrations >2500/cm**3 during summer, >800/cm**3 during spring/autumn and >400/cm**3 during winter. If one or a definable combination of these criteria were given, high volume aerosol sampling and part of the trace gas sampling were interrupted. Starting at 1982 through 1991-01-14 surface ozone was measured with an electrochemical concentration cell (ECC). Surface ozone mixing ratio are given in ppbv = parts per 10**9 by volume. The averaging time corresponds to the given time intervals in the data sheet. The accuracy of the values are better than ±1 ppbv and the detection limit is around 1.0 ppbv. Aerosols were sampled on two Whatman 541 cellulose filters in series and analyzed by ion chromatography at the UHEI-IUP. Generally, the sampling period was seven days but could be up to two weeks on occasion. The air flow was around 100 m**3/h and typically 10000-20000 m**3 of ambient air was forced through the filters for one sample. Concentration values are given in nanogram (ng) per 1 m**3 air at standard pressure and temperature (1013 mbar, 273.16 K). Uncertainties of the values were approximately ±10% to ±15% for the main components MSA, chloride, nitrate, sulfate and sodium, and between ±20% and ±30% for the minor species bromide, ammonium, potassium, magnesium and calcium.

Latent Space and Social Psychological Models of Diffusion

The problem of social diffusion has animated sociological thinking on topics ranging from the spread of an idea, an innovation or a disease, to the foundations of collective behavior and political polarization. While network diffusion has been a productive metaphor, the reality of diffusion processes is often muddier. Ideas and innovations diffuse differently from diseases, but, with a few exceptions, the diffusion of ideas and innovations has been modeled under the same assumptions as the diffusion of disease. In this dissertation, I develop two new diffusion models for "socially meaningful" contagions that address two of the most significant problems with current diffusion models: (1) that contagions can only spread along observed ties, and (2) that contagions do not change as they spread between people. I augment insights from these statistical and simulation models with an analysis of an empirical case of diffusion - the use of enterprise collaboration software in a large technology company. I focus the empirical study on when people abandon innovations, a crucial, and understudied aspect of the diffusion of innovations. Using timestamped posts, I analyze when people abandon software to a high degree of detail.

To address the first problem, I suggest a latent space diffusion model. Rather than treating ties as stable conduits for information, the latent space diffusion model treats ties as random draws from an underlying social space, and simulates diffusion over the social space. Theoretically, the social space model integrates both actor ties and attributes simultaneously in a single social plane, while incorporating schemas into diffusion processes gives an explicit form to the reciprocal influences that cognition and social environment have on each other. Practically, the latent space diffusion model produces statistically consistent diffusion estimates where using the network alone does not, and the diffusion with schemas model shows that introducing some cognitive processing into diffusion processes changes the rate and ultimate distribution of the spreading information. To address the second problem, I suggest a diffusion model with schemas. Rather than treating information as though it is spread without changes, the schema diffusion model allows people to modify information they receive to fit an underlying mental model of the information before they pass the information to others. Combining the latent space models with a schema notion for actors improves our models for social diffusion both theoretically and practically.

The empirical case study focuses on how the changing value of an innovation, introduced by the innovations' network externalities, influences when people abandon the innovation. In it, I find that people are least likely to abandon an innovation when other people in their neighborhood currently use the software as well. The effect is particularly pronounced for supervisors' current use and number of supervisory team members who currently use the software. This case study not only points to an important process in the diffusion of innovation, but also suggests a new approach -- computerized collaboration systems -- to collecting and analyzing data on organizational processes.

Extended nonlinear analytical models of compliant parallelogram mechanisms: third-order models

This paper proposes extended nonlinear analytical models, third-order models, of compliant parallelogram mechanisms. These models are capable of capturing the accurate effects from the very large axial force within the transverse motion range of 10% of the beam length through incorporating the terms associated with the high-order (up to third-order) axial force. Firstly, the free-body diagram method is employed to derive the nonlinear analytical model for a basic compliant parallelogram mechanism based on load-displacement relations of a single beam, geometry compatibility conditions, and load-equilibrium conditions. The procedures for the forward solutions and inverse solutions are described. Nonlinear analytical models for guided compliant multi-beam parallelogram mechanisms are then obtained. A case study of the compound compliant parallelogram mechanism, composed of two basic compliant parallelogram mechanisms in symmetry, is further implemented. This work intends to estimate the internal axial force change, the transverse force change, and the transverse stiffness change with the transverse motion using the proposed third-order model in comparison with the first-order model proposed in the prior art. In addition, FEA (finite element analysis) results validate the accuracy of the third-order model for a typical example. It is shown that in the case study the slenderness ratio affects the result discrepancy between the third-order model and the first-order model significantly, and the third-order model can illustrate a non-monotonic transverse stiffness curve if the beam is thin enough.

Rare coding variants in the phospholipase D3 gene confer risk for Alzheimer's disease.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified several risk variants for late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD)1, 2. These common variants have replicable but small effects on LOAD risk and generally do not have obvious functional effects. Low-frequency coding variants, not detected by GWAS, are predicted to include functional variants with larger effects on risk. To identify low-frequency coding variants with large effects on LOAD risk, we carried out whole-exome sequencing (WES) in 14 large LOAD families and follow-up analyses of the candidate variants in several large LOAD case–control data sets. A rare variant in PLD3 (phospholipase D3; Val232Met) segregated with disease status in two independent families and doubled risk for Alzheimer’s disease in seven independent case–control series with a total of more than 11,000 cases and controls of European descent. Gene-based burden analyses in 4,387 cases and controls of European descent and 302 African American cases and controls, with complete sequence data for PLD3, reveal that several variants in this gene increase risk for Alzheimer’s disease in both populations. PLD3 is highly expressed in brain regions that are vulnerable to Alzheimer’s disease pathology, including hippocampus and cortex, and is expressed at significantly lower levels in neurons from Alzheimer’s disease brains compared to control brains. Overexpression of PLD3 leads to a significant decrease in intracellular amyloid-β precursor protein (APP) and extracellular Aβ42 and Aβ40 (the 42- and 40-residue isoforms of the amyloid-β peptide), and knockdown of PLD3 leads to a significant increase in extracellular Aβ42 and Aβ40. Together, our genetic and functional data indicate that carriers of PLD3 coding variants have a twofold increased risk for LOAD and that PLD3 influences APP processing. This study provides an example of how densely affected families may help to identify rare variants with large effects on risk for disease or other complex traits.

TIMESCAPES: an architectural process of memory and adaptation

What if the architectural process of making could incorporate time? All designers who impact the physical environment- consciously and unconsciously are gatekeepers of the past, commentators of the present, and speculators of the future. This project proposes the creation of architecture and adaptive public space that looks to historical memories, foster present day cultural formation, and new alternative visions for the city of the future. The thesis asks what it means to design for stasis and change in a variety of scales- urban, architectural, and detail and arrives at a speculated new neighborhood, institutional buildings, and landscape. Central to this project is the idea of the architect as archeologist, anthropologist, and artist. The project focuses on a rapidly changing part of the city of Fort Worth, Texas and assigns a multipurpose institutional buildings and public space as a method of investigation. The thesis hopes to further architectural discourse about into the role of architecture in the preservation of memory, adaptive potential of public spaces, and the role of time in architecture.

Amazon forest structure generates diurnal and seasonal variability in light utilization.

The complex three-dimensional (3-D) structure of tropical forests generates a diversity of light environments for canopy and understory trees. Understanding diurnal and seasonal changes in light availability is critical for interpreting measurements of net ecosystem exchange and improving ecosystem models. Here, we used the Discrete Anisotropic Radiative Transfer (DART) model to simulate leaf absorption of photosynthetically active radiation (lAPAR) for an Amazon forest. The 3-D model scene was developed from airborne lidar data, and local measurements of leaf reflectance, aerosols, and PAR were used to model lAPAR under direct and diffuse illumination conditions. Simulated lAPAR under clear-sky and cloudy conditions was corrected for light saturation effects to estimate light utilization, the fraction of lAPAR available for photosynthesis. Although the fraction of incoming PAR absorbed by leaves was consistent throughout the year (0.80?0.82), light utilization varied seasonally (0.67?0.74), with minimum values during the Amazon dry season. Shadowing and light saturation effects moderated potential gains in forest productivity from increasing PAR during dry-season months when the diffuse fraction from clouds and aerosols was low. Comparisons between DART and other models highlighted the role of 3-D forest structure to account for seasonal changes in light utilization. Our findings highlight how directional illumination and forest 3-D structure combine to influence diurnal and seasonal variability in light utilization, independent of further changes in leaf area, leaf age, or environmental controls on canopy photosynthesis. Changing illumination geometry constitutes an alternative biophysical explanation for observed seasonality in Amazon forest productivity without changes in canopy phenology.

Novel Inductor‐less Conversion Strategy Based on Multiphase Transformer‐Coupled Converters: Analysis, Design and Applications

There are many the requirements that modern power converters should fulfill. Most of the applications where these converters are used, demand smaller converters with high efficiency, improved power density and a fast dynamic response. For instance, loads like microprocessors demand aggressive current steps with very high slew rates (100A/mus and higher); besides, during these load steps, the supply voltage of the microprocessor should be kept within tight limits in order to ensure its correct performance. The accomplishment of these requirements is not an easy task; complex solutions like advanced topologies - such as multiphase converters- as well as advanced control strategies are often needed. Besides, it is also necessary to operate the converter at high switching frequencies and to use capacitors with high capacitance and low ESR. Improving the dynamic response of power converters does not rely only on the control strategy but also the power topology should be suited to enable a fast dynamic response. Moreover, in later years, a fast dynamic response does not only mean accomplishing fast load steps but output voltage steps are gaining importance as well. At least, two applications that require fast voltage changes can be named: Low power microprocessors. In these devices, the voltage supply is changed according to the workload and the operating frequency of the microprocessor is changed at the same time. An important reduction in voltage dependent losses can be achieved with such changes. This technique is known as Dynamic Voltage Scaling (DVS). Another application where important energy savings can be achieved by means of changing the supply voltage are Radio Frequency Power Amplifiers. For example, RF architectures based on ‘Envelope Tracking’ and ‘Envelope Elimination and Restoration’ techniques can take advantage of voltage supply modulation and accomplish important energy savings in the power amplifier. However, in order to achieve these efficiency improvements, a power converter with high efficiency and high enough bandwidth (hundreds of kHz or even tens of MHz) is necessary in order to ensure an adequate supply voltage. The main objective of this Thesis is to improve the dynamic response of DC-DC converters from the point of view of the power topology. And the term dynamic response refers both to the load steps and the voltage steps; it is also interesting to modulate the output voltage of the converter with a specific bandwidth. In order to accomplish this, the question of what is it that limits the dynamic response of power converters should be answered. Analyzing this question leads to the conclusion that the dynamic response is limited by the power topology and specifically, by the filter inductance of the converter which is found in series between the input and the output of the converter. The series inductance is the one that determines the gain of the converter and provides the regulation capability. Although the energy stored in the filter inductance enables the regulation and the capability of filtering the output voltage, it imposes a limitation which is the concern of this Thesis. The series inductance stores energy and prevents the current from changing in a fast way, limiting the slew rate of the current through this inductor. Different solutions are proposed in the literature in order to reduce the limit imposed by the filter inductor. Many publications proposing new topologies and improvements to known topologies can be found in the literature. Also, complex control strategies are proposed with the objective of improving the dynamic response in power converters. In the proposed topologies, the energy stored in the series inductor is reduced; examples of these topologies are Multiphase converters, Buck converter operating at very high frequency or adding a low impedance path in parallel with the series inductance. Control techniques proposed in the literature, focus on adjusting the output voltage as fast as allowed by the power stage; examples of these control techniques are: hysteresis control, V 2 control, and minimum time control. In some of the proposed topologies, a reduction in the value of the series inductance is achieved and with this, the energy stored in this magnetic element is reduced; less stored energy means a faster dynamic response. However, in some cases (as in the high frequency Buck converter), the dynamic response is improved at the cost of worsening the efficiency. In this Thesis, a drastic solution is proposed: to completely eliminate the series inductance of the converter. This is a more radical solution when compared to those proposed in the literature. If the series inductance is eliminated, the regulation capability of the converter is limited which can make it difficult to use the topology in one-converter solutions; however, this topology is suitable for power architectures where the energy conversion is done by more than one converter. When the series inductor is eliminated from the converter, the current slew rate is no longer limited and it can be said that the dynamic response of the converter is independent from the switching frequency. This is the main advantage of eliminating the series inductor. The main objective, is to propose an energy conversion strategy that is done without series inductance. Without series inductance, no energy is stored between the input and the output of the converter and the dynamic response would be instantaneous if all the devices were ideal. If the energy transfer from the input to the output of the converter is done instantaneously when a load step occurs, conceptually it would not be necessary to store energy at the output of the converter (no output capacitor COUT would be needed) and if the input source is ideal, the input capacitor CIN would not be necessary. This last feature (no CIN with ideal VIN) is common to all power converters. However, when the concept is actually implemented, parasitic inductances such as leakage inductance of the transformer and the parasitic inductance of the PCB, cannot be avoided because they are inherent to the implementation of the converter. These parasitic elements do not affect significantly to the proposed concept. In this Thesis, it is proposed to operate the converter without series inductance in order to improve the dynamic response of the converter; however, on the other side, the continuous regulation capability of the converter is lost. It is said continuous because, as it will be explained throughout the Thesis, it is indeed possible to achieve discrete regulation; a converter without filter inductance and without energy stored in the magnetic element, is capable to achieve a limited number of output voltages. The changes between these output voltage levels are achieved in a fast way. The proposed energy conversion strategy is implemented by means of a multiphase converter where the coupling of the phases is done by discrete two-winding transformers instead of coupledinductors since transformers are, ideally, no energy storing elements. This idea is the main contribution of this Thesis. The feasibility of this energy conversion strategy is first analyzed and then verified by simulation and by the implementation of experimental prototypes. Once the strategy is proved valid, different options to implement the magnetic structure are analyzed. Three different discrete transformer arrangements are studied and implemented. A converter based on this energy conversion strategy would be designed with a different approach than the one used to design classic converters since an additional design degree of freedom is available. The switching frequency can be chosen according to the design specifications without penalizing the dynamic response or the efficiency. Low operating frequencies can be chosen in order to favor the efficiency; on the other hand, high operating frequencies (MHz) can be chosen in order to favor the size of the converter. For this reason, a particular design procedure is proposed for the ‘inductorless’ conversion strategy. Finally, applications where the features of the proposed conversion strategy (high efficiency with fast dynamic response) are advantageus, are proposed. For example, in two-stage power architectures where a high efficiency converter is needed as the first stage and there is a second stage that provides the fine regulation. Another example are RF power amplifiers where the voltage is modulated following an envelope reference in order to save power; in this application, a high efficiency converter, capable of achieving fast voltage steps is required. The main contributions of this Thesis are the following: The proposal of a conversion strategy that is done, ideally, without storing energy in the magnetic element. The validation and the implementation of the proposed energy conversion strategy. The study of different magnetic structures based on discrete transformers for the implementation of the proposed energy conversion strategy. To elaborate and validate a design procedure. To identify and validate applications for the proposed energy conversion strategy. It is important to remark that this work is done in collaboration with Intel. The particular features of the proposed conversion strategy enable the possibility of solving the problems related to microprocessor powering in a different way. For example, the high efficiency achieved with the proposed conversion strategy enables it as a good candidate to be used for power conditioning, as a first stage in a two-stage power architecture for powering microprocessors.

On Modelling, System Identification and Control of Servo-Systems with a Flexible Load

The present study was done with two different servo-systems. In the first system, a servo-hydraulic system was identified and then controlled by a fuzzy gainscheduling controller. The second servo-system, an electro-magnetic linear motor in suppressing the mechanical vibration and position tracking of a reference model are studied by using a neural network and an adaptive backstepping controller respectively. Followings are some descriptions of research methods. Electro Hydraulic Servo Systems (EHSS) are commonly used in industry. These kinds of systems are nonlinearin nature and their dynamic equations have several unknown parameters.System identification is a prerequisite to analysis of a dynamic system. One of the most promising novel evolutionary algorithms is the Differential Evolution (DE) for solving global optimization problems. In the study, the DE algorithm is proposed for handling nonlinear constraint functionswith boundary limits of variables to find the best parameters of a servo-hydraulic system with flexible load. The DE guarantees fast speed convergence and accurate solutions regardless the initial conditions of parameters. The control of hydraulic servo-systems has been the focus ofintense research over the past decades. These kinds of systems are nonlinear in nature and generally difficult to control. Since changing system parameters using the same gains will cause overshoot or even loss of system stability. The highly non-linear behaviour of these devices makes them ideal subjects for applying different types of sophisticated controllers. The study is concerned with a second order model reference to positioning control of a flexible load servo-hydraulic system using fuzzy gainscheduling. In the present research, to compensate the lack of dampingin a hydraulic system, an acceleration feedback was used. To compare the results, a pcontroller with feed-forward acceleration and different gains in extension and retraction is used. The design procedure for the controller and experimental results are discussed. The results suggest that using the fuzzy gain-scheduling controller decrease the error of position reference tracking. The second part of research was done on a PermanentMagnet Linear Synchronous Motor (PMLSM). In this study, a recurrent neural network compensator for suppressing mechanical vibration in PMLSM with a flexible load is studied. The linear motor is controlled by a conventional PI velocity controller, and the vibration of the flexible mechanism is suppressed by using a hybrid recurrent neural network. The differential evolution strategy and Kalman filter method are used to avoid the local minimum problem, and estimate the states of system respectively. The proposed control method is firstly designed by using non-linear simulation model built in Matlab Simulink and then implemented in practical test rig. The proposed method works satisfactorily and suppresses the vibration successfully. In the last part of research, a nonlinear load control method is developed and implemented for a PMLSM with a flexible load. The purpose of the controller is to track a flexible load to the desired position reference as fast as possible and without awkward oscillation. The control method is based on an adaptive backstepping algorithm whose stability is ensured by the Lyapunov stability theorem. The states of the system needed in the controller are estimated by using the Kalman filter. The proposed controller is implemented and tested in a linear motor test drive and responses are presented.

Characterization of the temperature, load and damage effects using piezoelectric transducer patches based on fuzzy clustering

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) denotes a system with the ability to detect and interpret adverse changes in a structure. One of the critical challenges for practical implementation of SHM system is the ability to detect damage under changing environmental conditions. This paper aims to characterize the temperature, load and damage effects in the sensor measurements obtained with piezoelectric transducer (PZT) patches. Data sets are collected on thin aluminum specimens under different environmental conditions and artificially induced damage states. The fuzzy clustering algorithm is used to organize the sensor measurements into a set of clusters, which can attribute the variation in sensor data due to temperature, load or any induced damage.

Bidirectional multiple port dc/dc transformer based on a series resonant converter

In this paper a novel bidirectional multiple port dc/dc transformer topology is presented. The novel concept for dc/dc transformer is based on the Series Resonant Converter (SRC)topology operated at its resonant frequency point. This allows for higher switching frequency to be adopted and enables high efficiency/high power density operation. The feasibility of the proposed concept is verified on a 300W, 700 kHz three port prototype with 390V input voltage and 48V and 12V output voltages. A peak overall efficiency of 93% is measured at full load. A very good load and cross regulation characteristic of the converter is observed in the whole load range, from full load to open circuit. The sensitivity analysis of the resonant capacitance is also performed showing very slight deterioration in the converter performances when a resonant capacitor is changed ±30% of its nominal value.

Application of automatic load transfer on feeder utilisation balance

This paper looks at how automatic load transfer may be used as a possible planning tool to help deliver faster connections for customers. A trial on an area of overhead line Network is presented to show how improvements in % feeder utilisation may be realised by changing the location of the open point. The reported Network data is compared to calculated data under two different configurations over a two week trial period. The results show that ALT open point determination in the presence of generation is different from a load only circuit and that the open points may not be fixed with time. Looking at improvements in Network headroom may not be conducive to other improvements in the network such as loss reduction or improving voltage profiles.