Technological and financial approaches to risk management in agriculture: an integrated approach

In the present paper, risk-management problems where farmers manage risk both through production decisions and through the use of market-based and informal risk-management mechanisms are considered. It is shown that many of these problems share a common structure, and that a unified and informative treatment of a broad spectrum of risk-management tools is possible within a cost-minimisation framework, under minimal conditions on their objective functions. Fundamental results are derived that apply regardless of the producer's preference towards risks, using only the no-arbitrage condition that agricultural producers never forego any opportunity to lower costs without lowering returns.

Objectives for multiple-species conservation planning

The first step in conservation planning is to identify objectives. Most stated objectives for conservation, such as to maximize biodiversity outcomes, are too vague to be useful within a decision-making framework. One way to clarify the issue is to define objectives in terms of the risk of extinction for multiple species. Although the assessment of extinction risk for single species is common, few researchers have formulated an objective function that combines the extinction risks of multiple species. We sought to translate the broad goal of maximizing the viability of species into explicit objectives for use in a decision-theoretic approach to conservation planning. We formulated several objective functions based on extinction risk across many species and illustrated the differences between these objectives with simple examples. Each objective function was the mathematical representation of an approach to conservation and emphasized different levels of threat Our objectives included minimizing the joint probability of one or more extinctions, minimizing the expected number of extinctions, and minimizing the increase in risk of extinction from the best-case scenario. With objective functions based on joint probabilities of extinction across species, any correlations in extinction probabilities bad to be known or the resultant decisions were potentially misleading. Additive objectives, such as the expected number of extinctions, did not produce the same anomalies. We demonstrated that the choice of objective function is central to the decision-making process because alternative objective functions can lead to a different ranking of management options. Therefore, decision makers need to think carefully in selecting and defining their conservation goals.

Maintenance strategies affecting equipment performance

Proper maintenance of plant items is crucial for the safe and profitable operation of process plants, The relevant maintenance policies fall into the following four categories: (i) preventivejopportunistic/breakdown replacement policies, (ii) inspection/inspection-repair-replacernent policies, (iii) restorative maintenance policies, and (iv) condition based maintenance policies, For correlating failure times of component equipnent and complete systems, the Weibull failure distribution has been used, A new powerful method, SEQLIM, has been proposed for the estimation of the Weibull parameters; particularly, when maintenance records contain very few failures and many successful operation times. When a system consists of a number of replaceable, ageing components, an opporturistic replacernent policy has been found to be cost-effective, A simple opportunistic rrodel has been developed. Inspection models with various objective functions have been investigated, It was found that, on the assumption of a negative exponential failure distribution, all models converge to the same optimal inspection interval; provided the safety components are very reliable and the demand rate is low, When deterioration becomes a contributory factor to same failures, periodic inspections, calculated from above models, are too frequent, A case of safety trip systems has been studied, A highly effective restorative maintenance policy can be developed if the performance of the equipment under this category can be related to some predictive modelling. A novel fouling model has been proposed to determine cleaning strategies of condensers, Condition-based maintenance policies have been investigated. A simple gauge has been designed for condition monitoring of relief valve springs. A typical case of an exothermic inert gas generation plant has been studied, to demonstrate how various policies can be applied to devise overall maintenance actions.

Generalized Scalarizing Problems GENS and GENSLex of Multicriteria Optimization

* This paper is partially supported by the National Science Fund of Bulgarian Ministry of Education and Science under contract № I–1401\2004 "Interactive Algorithms and Software Systems Supporting Multicriteria Decision Making".

On Pareto Sets in Multi-Criteria Optimization

Здравко Д. Славов - В тази работа се разглеждат Паретовските решения в непрекъсната многокритериална оптимизация. Обсъжда се ролята на някои предположения, които влияят на характеристиките на Паретовските множества. Авторът се е опитал да премахне предположенията за вдлъбнатост на целевите функции и изпъкналост на допустимата област, които обикновено се използват в многокритериалната оптимизация. Резултатите са на базата на конструирането на ретракция от допустимата област върху Парето-оптималното множество.

An application of evolutionary algorithms for WAG optimisation in the Norne Field

Water-alternating-gas (WAG) is an enhanced oil recovery method combining the improved macroscopic sweep of water flooding with the improved microscopic displacement of gas injection. The optimal design of the WAG parameters is usually based on numerical reservoir simulation via trial and error, limited by the reservoir engineer’s availability. Employing optimisation techniques can guide the simulation runs and reduce the number of function evaluations. In this study, robust evolutionary algorithms are utilized to optimise hydrocarbon WAG performance in the E-segment of the Norne field. The first objective function is selected to be the net present value (NPV) and two global semi-random search strategies, a genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimisation (PSO) are tested on different case studies with different numbers of controlling variables which are sampled from the set of water and gas injection rates, bottom-hole pressures of the oil production wells, cycle ratio, cycle time, the composition of the injected hydrocarbon gas (miscible/immiscible WAG) and the total WAG period. In progressive experiments, the number of decision-making variables is increased, increasing the problem complexity while potentially improving the efficacy of the WAG process. The second objective function is selected to be the incremental recovery factor (IRF) within a fixed total WAG simulation time and it is optimised using the same optimisation algorithms. The results from the two optimisation techniques are analyzed and their performance, convergence speed and the quality of the optimal solutions found by the algorithms in multiple trials are compared for each experiment. The distinctions between the optimal WAG parameters resulting from NPV and oil recovery optimisation are also examined. This is the first known work optimising over this complete set of WAG variables. The first use of PSO to optimise a WAG project at the field scale is also illustrated. Compared to the reference cases, the best overall values of the objective functions found by GA and PSO were 13.8% and 14.2% higher, respectively, if NPV is optimised over all the above variables, and 14.2% and 16.2% higher, respectively, if IRF is optimised.

Métodos heurísticos para un problema multicriterio de distribución de ayuda humanitaria

Large scale disasters, such as the one caused by the Typhoon Haiyan, which devastated portions of the Philippines in 2013, or the catastrophic 2010 Haiti earthquake, which caused major damage in Port-au-Prince and other settlements in the region, have massive and lasting effects on populations. Nowadays, disasters can be considered as a consequence of inappropriately managed risk. These risks are the product of hazards and vulnerability, which refers to the extent to which a community can be affected by the impact of a hazard. In this way, developing countries, due to their greater vulnerability, suffer the highest costs when a disaster occurs. Disaster relief is a challenge for politics, economies, and societies worldwide. Humanitarian organizations face multiple decision problems when responding to disasters. In particular, once a disaster strikes, the distribution of humanitarian aid to the population affected is one of the most fundamental operations in what is called humanitarian logistics. This term is defined as the process of planning, implementing and controlling the effcient, cost-effective ow and storage of goods and materials as well as related information, from the point of origin to the point of consumption, for the purpose of meeting the end bene- ciaries' requirements and alleviate the suffering of vulnerable people, [the Humanitarian Logistics Conference, 2004 (Fritz Institute)]. During the last decade there has been an increasing interest in the OR/MS community in studying this topic, pointing out the similarities and differences between humanitarian and business logistics, and developing models suited to handle the special characteristics of these problems. Several authors have pointed out that traditional logistic objectives, such as minimizing operation cost, are not the most relevant goals in humanitarian operations. Other factors, such as the time of operation, or the design of safe and equitable distribution plans, come to the front, and new models and algorithms are needed to cope with these special features. Up to six attributes related to the distribution plan are considered in our multi-criteria approach. Even though there are usually simple ways to measure the cost of an operation, the evaluation of some other attributes such as security or equity is not easy. As a result, several attribute measures are proposed and developed, focusing on different aspects of the solutions. Furthermore, when metaheuristic solution methods are used, considering non linear objective functions does not increase the complexity of the algorithms significantly, and thus more accurate measures can be utilized...

The Development of a Hybrid Optimization Algorithm for the Evaluation and Optimization of the Asynchronous Pulse Unit

The effectiveness of an optimization algorithm can be reduced to its ability to navigate an objective function’s topology. Hybrid optimization algorithms combine various optimization algorithms using a single meta-heuristic so that the hybrid algorithm is more robust, computationally efficient, and/or accurate than the individual algorithms it is made of. This thesis proposes a novel meta-heuristic that uses search vectors to select the constituent algorithm that is appropriate for a given objective function. The hybrid is shown to perform competitively against several existing hybrid and non-hybrid optimization algorithms over a set of three hundred test cases. This thesis also proposes a general framework for evaluating the effectiveness of hybrid optimization algorithms. Finally, this thesis presents an improved Method of Characteristics Code with novel boundary conditions, which better characterizes pipelines than previous codes. This code is coupled with the hybrid optimization algorithm in order to optimize the operation of real-world piston pumps.

Linking Parametric CAD with Adjoint Surface Sensitivities

The goal of this work is to present an efficient CAD-based adjoint process chain for calculating parametric sensitivities (derivatives of the objective function with respect to the CAD parameters) in timescales acceptable for industrial design processes. The idea is based on linking parametric design velocities (geometric sensitivities computed from the CAD model) with adjoint surface sensitivities. A CAD-based design velocity computation method has been implemented based on distances between discrete representations of perturbed geometries. This approach differs from other methods due to the fact that it works with existing commercial CAD packages (unlike most analytical approaches) and it can cope with the changes in CAD model topology and face labeling. Use of the proposed method allows computation of parametric sensitivities using adjoint data at a computational cost which scales with the number of objective functions being considered, while it is essentially independent of the number of design variables. The gradient computation is demonstrated on test cases for a Nozzle Guide Vane (NGV) model and a Turbine Rotor Blade model. The results are validated against finite difference values and good agreement is shown. This gradient information can be passed to an optimization algorithm, which will use it to update the CAD model parameters.

Aerodynamic optimization using Adjoint methods and parametric CAD models

This paper describes an implementation of a method capable of integrating parametric, feature based, CAD models based on commercial software (CATIA) with the SU2 software framework. To exploit the adjoint based methods for aerodynamic optimisation within the SU2, a formulation to obtain geometric sensitivities directly from the commercial CAD parameterisation is introduced, enabling the calculation of gradients with respect to CAD based design variables. To assess the accuracy and efficiency of the alternative approach, two aerodynamic optimisation problems are investigated: an inviscid, 3D, problem with multiple constraints, and a 2D high-lift aerofoil, viscous problem without any constraints. Initial results show the new parameterisation obtaining reliable optimums, with similar levels of performance of the software native parameterisations. In the final paper, details of computing CAD sensitivities will be provided, including accuracy as well as linking geometric sensitivities to aerodynamic objective functions and constraints; the impact in the robustness of the overall method will be assessed and alternative parameterisations will be included.

Application of battery energy storage in the Québec interconnection

Le Système Stockage de l’Énergie par Batterie ou Batterie de Stockage d’Énergie (BSE) offre de formidables atouts dans les domaines de la production, du transport, de la distribution et de la consommation d’énergie électrique. Cette technologie est notamment considérée par plusieurs opérateurs à travers le monde entier, comme un nouveau dispositif permettant d’injecter d’importantes quantités d’énergie renouvelable d’une part et d’autre part, en tant que composante essentielle aux grands réseaux électriques. De plus, d’énormes avantages peuvent être associés au déploiement de la technologie du BSE aussi bien dans les réseaux intelligents que pour la réduction de l’émission des gaz à effet de serre, la réduction des pertes marginales, l’alimentation de certains consommateurs en source d’énergie d’urgence, l’amélioration de la gestion de l’énergie, et l’accroissement de l’efficacité énergétique dans les réseaux. Cette présente thèse comprend trois étapes à savoir : l’Étape 1 - est relative à l’utilisation de la BSE en guise de réduction des pertes électriques ; l’Étape 2 - utilise la BSE comme élément de réserve tournante en vue de l’atténuation de la vulnérabilité du réseau ; et l’Étape 3 - introduit une nouvelle méthode d’amélioration des oscillations de fréquence par modulation de la puissance réactive, et l’utilisation de la BSE pour satisfaire la réserve primaire de fréquence. La première Étape, relative à l’utilisation de la BSE en vue de la réduction des pertes, est elle-même subdivisée en deux sous-étapes dont la première est consacrée à l’allocation optimale et le seconde, à l’utilisation optimale. Dans la première sous-étape, l’Algorithme génétique NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II) a été programmé dans CASIR, le Super-Ordinateur de l’IREQ, en tant qu’algorithme évolutionniste multiobjectifs, permettant d’extraire un ensemble de solutions pour un dimensionnement optimal et un emplacement adéquat des multiple unités de BSE, tout en minimisant les pertes de puissance, et en considérant en même temps la capacité totale des puissances des unités de BSE installées comme des fonctions objectives. La première sous-étape donne une réponse satisfaisante à l’allocation et résout aussi la question de la programmation/scheduling dans l’interconnexion du Québec. Dans le but de réaliser l’objectif de la seconde sous-étape, un certain nombre de solutions ont été retenues et développées/implantées durant un intervalle de temps d’une année, tout en tenant compte des paramètres (heure, capacité, rendement/efficacité, facteur de puissance) associés aux cycles de charge et de décharge de la BSE, alors que la réduction des pertes marginales et l’efficacité énergétique constituent les principaux objectifs. Quant à la seconde Étape, un nouvel indice de vulnérabilité a été introduit, formalisé et étudié ; indice qui est bien adapté aux réseaux modernes équipés de BES. L’algorithme génétique NSGA-II est de nouveau exécuté (ré-exécuté) alors que la minimisation de l’indice de vulnérabilité proposé et l’efficacité énergétique représentent les principaux objectifs. Les résultats obtenus prouvent que l’utilisation de la BSE peut, dans certains cas, éviter des pannes majeures du réseau. La troisième Étape expose un nouveau concept d’ajout d’une inertie virtuelle aux réseaux électriques, par le procédé de modulation de la puissance réactive. Il a ensuite été présenté l’utilisation de la BSE en guise de réserve primaire de fréquence. Un modèle générique de BSE, associé à l’interconnexion du Québec, a enfin été proposé dans un environnement MATLAB. Les résultats de simulations confirment la possibilité de l’utilisation des puissances active et réactive du système de la BSE en vue de la régulation de fréquence.

Discrete-event Simulation and Optimization to Improve the Performance of a Healthcare System

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Spectral Frame Analysis and Learning through Graph Structure

This dissertation investigates the connection between spectral analysis and frame theory. When considering the spectral properties of a frame, we present a few novel results relating to the spectral decomposition. We first show that scalable frames have the property that the inner product of the scaling coefficients and the eigenvectors must equal the inverse eigenvalues. From this, we prove a similar result when an approximate scaling is obtained. We then focus on the optimization problems inherent to the scalable frames by first showing that there is an equivalence between scaling a frame and optimization problems with a non-restrictive objective function. Various objective functions are considered, and an analysis of the solution type is presented. For linear objectives, we can encourage sparse scalings, and with barrier objective functions, we force dense solutions. We further consider frames in high dimensions, and derive various solution techniques. From here, we restrict ourselves to various frame classes, to add more specificity to the results. Using frames generated from distributions allows for the placement of probabilistic bounds on scalability. For discrete distributions (Bernoulli and Rademacher), we bound the probability of encountering an ONB, and for continuous symmetric distributions (Uniform and Gaussian), we show that symmetry is retained in the transformed domain. We also prove several hyperplane-separation results. With the theory developed, we discuss graph applications of the scalability framework. We make a connection with graph conditioning, and show the in-feasibility of the problem in the general case. After a modification, we show that any complete graph can be conditioned. We then present a modification of standard PCA (robust PCA) developed by Cand\`es, and give some background into Electron Energy-Loss Spectroscopy (EELS). We design a novel scheme for the processing of EELS through robust PCA and least-squares regression, and test this scheme on biological samples. Finally, we take the idea of robust PCA and apply the technique of kernel PCA to perform robust manifold learning. We derive the problem and present an algorithm for its solution. There is also discussion of the differences with RPCA that make theoretical guarantees difficult.

Branch and Bound algorithms in greenhouse climate control

The horticultural sector has become an increasingly important sector of food production, for which greenhouse climate control plays a vital role in improving its sustainability. One of the methods to control the greenhouse climate is Model Predictive Control, which can be optimized through a branch and bound algorithm. The application of the algorithm in literature is examined and analyzed through small examples, and later extended to greenhouse climate simulation. A comparison is made of various alternative objective functions available in literature. Subsequently, a modidified version of the B&B algorithm is presented, which reduces the number of node evaluations required for optimization. Finally, three alternative algorithms are developed and compared to consider the optimization problem from a discrete to a continuous control space.

Vehicle Routing Problems that Minimize the Completion Time: Heuristics, Worst-Case Analyses, and Computational Results

In the standard Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP), we route a fleet of vehicles to deliver the demands of all customers such that the total distance traveled by the fleet is minimized. In this dissertation, we study variants of the VRP that minimize the completion time, i.e., we minimize the distance of the longest route. We call it the min-max objective function. In applications such as disaster relief efforts and military operations, the objective is often to finish the delivery or the task as soon as possible, not to plan routes with the minimum total distance. Even in commercial package delivery nowadays, companies are investing in new technologies to speed up delivery instead of focusing merely on the min-sum objective. In this dissertation, we compare the min-max and the standard (min-sum) objective functions in a worst-case analysis to show that the optimal solution with respect to one objective function can be very poor with respect to the other. The results motivate the design of algorithms specifically for the min-max objective. We study variants of min-max VRPs including one problem from the literature (the min-max Multi-Depot VRP) and two new problems (the min-max Split Delivery Multi-Depot VRP with Minimum Service Requirement and the min-max Close-Enough VRP). We develop heuristics to solve these three problems. We compare the results produced by our heuristics to the best-known solutions in the literature and find that our algorithms are effective. In the case where benchmark instances are not available, we generate instances whose near-optimal solutions can be estimated based on geometry. We formulate the Vehicle Routing Problem with Drones and carry out a theoretical analysis to show the maximum benefit from using drones in addition to trucks to reduce delivery time. The speed-up ratio depends on the number of drones loaded onto one truck and the speed of the drone relative to the speed of the truck.