Testing the expectations theory of the term structure in threshold models

We test the expectations theory of the term structure of U.S. interest rates in nonlinear systems. These models allow the response of the change in short rates to past values of the spread to depend upon the level of the spread. The nonlinear system is tested against a linear system, and the results of testing the expectations theory in both models are contrasted. We find that the results of tests of the implications of the expectations theory depend on the size and sign of the spread. The long maturity spread predicts future changes of the short rate only when it is high.

A comparison of tests of non-linear cointegration with an application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure

We test whether there are nonlinearities in the response of short- and long-term interest rates to the spread in interest rates, and assess the out-of-sample predictability of interest rates using linear and nonlinear models. We find strong evidence of nonlinearities in the response of interest rates to the spread. Nonlinearities are shown to result in more accurate short-horizon forecasts, especially of the spread.

A nonlinear oscillator describing storm track variability

We construct a two-variable model which describes the interaction between local baroclinicity and eddy heat flux in order to understand aspects of the variance in storm tracks. It is a heuristic model for diabatically forced baroclinic instability close to baroclinic neutrality. The two-variable model has the structure of a nonlinear oscillator. It exhibits some realistic properties of observed storm track variability, most notably the intermittent nature of eddy activity. This suggests that apparent threshold behaviour can be more accurately and succinctly described by a simple nonlinearity. An analogy is drawn with triggering of convective events.

Individual assets, market structure and the drivers of return

Much UK research and market practice on portfolio strategy and performance benchmarking relies on a sector‐geography subdivision of properties. Prior tests of the appropriateness of such divisions have generally relied on aggregated or hypothetical return data. However, the results found in aggregate may not hold when individual buildings are considered. This paper makes use of a dataset of individual UK property returns. A series of multivariate exploratory statistical techniques are utilised to test whether the return behaviour of individual properties conforms to their a priori grouping. The results suggest strongly that neither standard sector nor regional classifications provide a clear demarcation of individual building performance. This has important implications for both portfolio strategy and performance measurement and benchmarking. However, there do appear to be size and yield effects that help explain return behaviour at the property level.

Commodity risks and the cross-section of equity returns

The article examines whether commodity risk is priced in the cross-section of global equity returns. We employ a long-only equally-weighted portfolio of commodity futures and a term structure portfolio that captures phases of backwardation and contango as mimicking portfolios for commodity risk. We find that equity-sorted portfolios with greater sensitivities to the excess returns of the backwardation and contango portfolio command higher average excess returns, suggesting that when measured appropriately, commodity risk is pervasive in stocks. Our conclusions are robust to the addition to the pricing model of financial, macroeconomic and business cycle-based risk factors.

Exact Search Directions for Optimization of Linear and Nonlinear Models Based on Generalized Orthonormal Functions

A novel technique for selecting the poles of orthonormal basis functions (OBF) in Volterra models of any order is presented. It is well-known that the usual large number of parameters required to describe the Volterra kernels can be significantly reduced by representing each kernel using an appropriate basis of orthonormal functions. Such a representation results in the so-called OBF Volterra model, which has a Wiener structure consisting of a linear dynamic generated by the orthonormal basis followed by a nonlinear static mapping given by the Volterra polynomial series. Aiming at optimizing the poles that fully parameterize the orthonormal bases, the exact gradients of the outputs of the orthonormal filters with respect to their poles are computed analytically by using a back-propagation-through-time technique. The expressions relative to the Kautz basis and to generalized orthonormal bases of functions (GOBF) are addressed; the ones related to the Laguerre basis follow straightforwardly as a particular case. The main innovation here is that the dynamic nature of the OBF filters is fully considered in the gradient computations. These gradients provide exact search directions for optimizing the poles of a given orthonormal basis. Such search directions can, in turn, be used as part of an optimization procedure to locate the minimum of a cost-function that takes into account the error of estimation of the system output. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is adopted here as the optimization procedure. Unlike previous related work, the proposed approach relies solely on input-output data measured from the system to be modeled, i.e., no information about the Volterra kernels is required. Examples are presented to illustrate the application of this approach to the modeling of dynamic systems, including a real magnetic levitation system with nonlinear oscillatory behavior.

The web of connections between tourism companies: Structure and dynamics

Tourism destination networks are amongst the most complex dynamical systems, involving a myriad of human-made and natural resources. In this work we report a complex network-based systematic analysis of the Elba (Italy) tourism destination network, including the characterization of its structure in terms of several traditional measurements, the investigation of its modularity, as well as its comprehensive study in terms of the recently reported superedges approach. In particular, structural (the number of paths of distinct lengths between pairs of nodes, as well as the number of reachable companies) and dynamical features (transition probabilities and the inward/outward activations and accessibilities) are measured and analyzed, leading to a series of important findings related to the interactions between tourism companies. Among the several reported results, it is shown that the type and size of the Companies influence strongly their respective activations and accessibilities, while their geographical position does not seem to matter. It is also shown that the Elba tourism network is largely fragmented and heterogeneous, so that it could benefit from increased integration. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Synthesis, characterization, and single crystal X-ray structure of the 1-furoyl-3-cyclohexylthiourea cadmium chloride complex, Cd[C4H3OC(O)NHC(S)NHC6H11]4Cl2

Cadmium chloride complex of 1-furoyl-3-cyclohexylthiourea (CyTu) was prepared and characterized by elemental analysis, IR, and Raman spectroscopy. The structure of the complex was determined by single crystal X-ray methods (space group Bbab, a = 20.918(1), b = 23.532(1), c = 23.571(1) angstrom, = = , Z = 8). Each cadmium has distorted octahedral geometry, coordinated by two chlorides and the thiocarbonyl sulfurs from four CyTu molecules. All the spectroscopic data are consistent with coordination of CyTu by sulfur to cadmium.

Synthesis, spectral studies and X-ray crystal structure of N,N `-(+/-)-trans-1,2-cyclohexylenebis(3-ethoxysalicylideneamine) H-2(t-3-EtOsalchxn)

The synthesis, spectra and X-ray crystal structure of N,N`-(+/-)-trans-1,2-cyclohexylenebis(3-ethoxysalicylideneamine) H-2(t-3-EtOsalchxn), a salen-type ligand, are reported. The Schiff base was characterized by elemental analysis, m.p., IR, electronic spectra, H-1 and C-13 NMR spectra. The spectra are discussed and compared with those of N,N`-(+/-)-trans-1,2-cyclohexylenebis(salicylideneamine), H-2(t-salchxn). The electronic and IR spectra were also resolved by deconvolution. The influence of the ethoxy group on the IR, electronic spectrum, H-1 and C-13 NMR spectra is discussed. Strong intramolecular forces are present as supported by the IR and H-1 NMR spectra and the X-ray crystal structure. An intermolecular hydrogen bond is observed and appears twice in a pair of molecules in the unit cell. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Occupational tasks and changes in the wage structure

This paper argues that changes in the returns to occupational tasks have contributed to changes in the wage distribution over the last three decades. Using Current Population Survey (CPS) data, we first show that the 1990s polarization of wages is explained by changes in wage setting between and within occupations, which are well captured by tasks measures linked to technological change and offshorability. Using a decomposition based on Firpo, Fortin, and Lemieux (2009), we find that technological change and deunionization played a central role in the 1980s and 1990s, while offshorability became an important factor from the 1990s onwards.

Do options contain information about excess bond returns ?

There is strong empirical evidence that risk premia in long-term interest rates are time-varying. These risk premia critically depend on interest rate volatility, yet existing research has not examined the im- pact of time-varying volatility on excess returns for long-term bonds. To address this issue, we incorporate interest rate option prices, which are very sensitive to interest rate volatility, into a dynamic model for the term structure of interest rates. We estimate three-factor affine term structure models using both swap rates and interest rate cap prices. When we incorporate option prices, the model better captures interest rate volatility and is better able to predict excess returns for long-term swaps over short-term swaps, both in- and out-of-sample. Our results indicate that interest rate options contain valuable infor- mation about risk premia and interest rate dynamics that cannot be extracted from interest rates alone.

Continuously deformable topological structure

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Force and displacement transmissibility of a nonlinear isolator with high-static-low-dynamic-stiffness

Engineers often face the challenge of reducing the level of vibrations experienced by a given payload or those transmitted to the support structure to which a vibrating source is attached. In order to increase the range over which vibrations are isolated, soft mounts are often used in practice. The drawback of this approach is the static displacement may be too large for reasons of available space for example. Ideally, a vibration isolator should have a high-static stiffness, to withstand static loads without too large a displacement, and at the same time, a low dynamic stiffness so that the natural frequency of the system is as low as possible which will result in an increased isolation region. These two effects are mutually exclusive in linear isolators but can be overcome if properly configured nonlinear isolators are used. This paper is concerned with the characterisation of such a nonlinear isolator comprising three springs, two of which are configured to reduce the dynamic stiffness of the isolator. The dynamic behaviour of the isolator supporting a lumped mass is investigated using force and displacement transmissibility, which are derived by modelling the dynamic system as a single-degree-of-freedom system. This results in the system dynamics being approximately described by the Duffing equation. For a linear isolator, the dynamics of the system are the same regardless if the source of the excitation is a harmonic force acting on the payload (force transmissibility) or a harmonic motion of the base (displacement transmissibility) on which the payload is mounted. In this paper these two expressions are compared for the nonlinear isolator and it is shown that they differ. A particular feature of the displacement transmissibility is that the response is unbounded at the nonlinear resonance frequency unless the damping in the isolator is greater than some threshold value, which is not the case for force transmissibility. An explanation for this is offered in the paper. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mesoscopic structure evidenced by AC dielectric nonlinearities in Sr(0.75)Ba(0.25)Nb(2)O(6) relaxor ferroelectric thin films

The AC electric field and temperature dependences of the dielectric permittivity for strontium barium niobate (Sr(0.75)Ba(0.25)Nb(2)O(6)) relaxor ferroelectric thin films have been investigated. The results indicate the existence of a true mesoscopic structure evidenced by the nonlinear dielectric response of these films, which is similar to those observed for bulk relaxor ferroelectrics. A tendency for a temperature dependent crossover from a linear to a quadratic behaviour of the dielectric nonlinearity was observed, indicating an evolution from paraelectric to glass-like behaviour on cooling the samples towards the freezing temperature transition.

Functional and historical determinants of shape in the scapula of Xenarthran mammals: Evolution of a complex morphological structure

The mammalian scapula is a complex morphological structure, composed of two ossification plates that fuse into a single structure. Most studies on morphological differentiation in the scapula have considered it to be a simple, spatially integrated structure, primarily influenced by the important locomotor function presented by this element. We used recently developed geometric morphometric techniques to test and quantify functional and phylogenetic influences on scapular shape variation in fossil and extant xenarthran mammals. The order Xenarthra is well represented in the fossil record and presents a stable phylogenetic hypothesis for its genealogical history. In addition, its species present a large variety of locomotor habits. Our results show that approximately half of the shape variation in the scapula is due to phylogenetic heritage. This is contrary to the view that the scapula is influenced only by functional demands. There are large-scale shape transformations that provide biomechanical adaptation for the several habits (arboreality, terrestriality, and digging), and small scale-shape transformations (mostly related to the coracoid process) that are not influenced by function. A nonlinear relationship between morphometric and phylogenetic distances indicates the presence of a complex mixture of evolutionary processes acting on shape differentiation of the scapula. J. Morphol. 241,251-263, 1999. (C) 1999 Wiley-Liss, Inc.