Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks : understanding probability

An introduction to thinking about and understanding probability that highlights the main pits and trapfalls that befall logical reasoning

Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks, Part 1 of 4 : understanding probability

An introduction to elicitation of experts' probabilities, which illustrates common problems with reasoning and how to circumvent them during elicitation.

Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks, Part 4 of 4: eliciting a conditional probability table

An introduction to eliciting a conditional probability table in a Bayesian Network model, highlighting three efficient methods for populating a CPT.

Feedback information and consumer motivation : the moderation role of positive and negative reference values in self-regulation

Marketers spend considerable resources to motivate people to consume their products and services as a means of goal attainment (Bagozzi and Dholakia, 1999). Why people increase, decrease, or stop consuming some products is based largely on how well they perceive they are doing in pursuit of their goals (Carver and Scheier, 1992). Yet despite the importance for marketers in understanding how current performance influences a consumer’s future efforts, this topic has received little attention in marketing research. Goal researchers generally agree that feedback about how well or how poorly people are doing in achieving their goals affects their motivation (Bandura and Cervone, 1986; Locke and Latham, 1990). Yet there is less agreement about whether positive and negative performance feedback increases or decreases future effort (Locke and Latham, 1990). For instance, while a customer of a gym might cancel his membership after receiving negative feedback about his fitness, the same negative feedback might cause another customer to visit the gym more often to achieve better results. A similar logic can apply to many products and services from the use of cosmetics to investing in mutual funds. The present research offers managers key insights into how to engage customers and keep them motivated. Given that connecting customers with the company is a top research priority for managers (Marketing Science Institute, 2006), this article provides suggestions for performance metrics including four questions that managers can use to apply the findings.

The subjective experience of negative symptoms : characteristics of emotional withdrawal

According to the diagnosis of schizophrenia in the DSM-IV-TR (American Psychiatric Association, 2000), negative symptoms are those personal characteristics that are thought to be reduced from normal functioning, while positive symptoms are aspects of functioning that exist as an excess or distortion of normal functioning. Negative symptoms are generally considered to be a core feature of people diagnosed with schizophrenia. However, negative symptoms are not always present in those diagnosed, and a diagnosis can be made with only negative or only positive symptoms, or with a combination of both. Negative symptoms include an observed loss of emotional expression (affective flattening), loss of motivation or self directedness (avolition), loss of speech (alogia), and also a loss of interests and pleasures (anhedonia). Positive symptoms include the perception of things that others do not perceive (hallucinations), and extraordinary explanations for ordinary events (delusions) (American Psychiatric Association, 2000). Both negative and positive symptoms are derived from watching the patient and thus do not consider the patient’s subjective experience. However, aspects of negative symptoms, such as observed affective flattening are highly contended. Within conventional psychiatry, the absence of emotional expression is assumed to coincide with an absence of emotional experience. Contrasting research findings suggests that patients who were observed to score low on displayed emotional expression, scored high on self ratings of emotional experience. Patients were also observed to be significantly lower on emotional expression when compared with others (Aghevli, Blanchard, & Horan, 2003; Selton, van der Bosch, & Sijben, 1998). It appears that there is little correlation between emotional experience and emotional expression in patients, and that observer ratings cannot help us to understand the subjective experience of the negative symptoms. This chapter will focus on research into the subjective experiences of negative symptoms. A framework for these experiences will be used from the qualitative research findings of the primary author (Le Lievre, 2010). In this study, the primary author found that subjective experiences of the negative symptoms belonged to one of the two phases of the illness experience; “transitioning into emotional shutdown” or “recovering from emotional shutdown”. This chapter will use the six themes from the phase of “transitioning into emotional shutdown”. This phase described the experience of turning the focus of attention away from the world and onto the self and the past, thus losing contact with the world and others (emotional shutdown). Transitioning into emotional shutdown involved; “not being acknowledged”, “relational confusion”, “not being expressive”, “reliving the past”, “detachment”, and “no sense of direction” (Le Lievre, 2010). Detail will be added to this framework of experience from other qualitative research in this area. We will now review the six themes that constitute a “transition into emotional shutdown” and corresponding previous research findings.

Comparative study of coagulase negative Staphylococci (CoNS) from clinical isolates, skin and nasal sources

Staphylococci are important pathogenic bacteria responsible for a range of diseases in humans. The most frequently isolated microorganisms in a hospital microbiology laboratory are staphylococci. The general classification of staphylococci divides them into two major groups; Coagulase-positive staphylococci (e.g. Staphylococcus aureus) and Coagulase-negative staphylococci (e.g. Staphylococcus epidermidis). Coagulase-negative staphylococcal (CoNS) isolates include a variety of species and many different strains but are often dominated by the most important organism of this group, S. epidermidis. Currently, these organisms are regarded as important pathogenic organisms causing infections related to prosthetic materials and surgical wounds. A significant number of S. epidermidis isolates are also resistant to different antimicrobial agents. Virulence factors in CoNS are not very clearly established and not well documented. S. epidermidis is evolving as a resistant and powerful microbe related to nosocomial infections because it has different properties which independently, and in combination, make it a successful infectious agent, especially in the hospital environment. Such characteristics include biofilm formation, drug resistance and the evolution of genetic variables. The purpose of this project was to develop a novel SNP genotyping method to genotype S. epidermidis strains originating from hospital patients and healthy individuals. High-Resolution Melt Analysis was used to assign binary typing profiles to both clinical and commensal strains using a new bioinformatics approach. The presence of antibiotic resistance genes and biofilm coding genes were also interrogated in these isolates.

Thresholds for error probability measures of business process models

The quality of conceptual business process models is highly relevant for the design of corresponding information systems. In particular, a precise measurement of model characteristics can be beneficial from a business perspective, helping to save costs thanks to early error detection. This is just as true from a software engineering point of view. In this latter case, models facilitate stakeholder communication and software system design. Research has investigated several proposals as regards measures for business process models, from a rather correlational perspective. This is helpful for understanding, for example size and complexity as general driving forces of error probability. Yet, design decisions usually have to build on thresholds, which can reliably indicate that a certain counter-action has to be taken. This cannot be achieved only by providing measures; it requires a systematic identification of effective and meaningful thresholds. In this paper, we derive thresholds for a set of structural measures for predicting errors in conceptual process models. To this end, we use a collection of 2,000 business process models from practice as a means of determining thresholds, applying an adaptation of the ROC curves method. Furthermore, an extensive validation of the derived thresholds was conducted by using 429 EPC models from an Australian financial institution. Finally, significant thresholds were adapted to refine existing modeling guidelines in a quantitative way.

Renal bioenergetics during early gram-negative mammalian sepsis and angiotensin II infusion

Purpose: To measure renal adenosine triphosphate (ATP) (bioenergetics) during hypotensive sepsis with or without angiotensin II (Ang II) infusion. Methods: In anaesthetised sheep implanted with a renal artery flow probe and a magnetic resonance coil around one kidney, we induced hypotensive sepsis with intravenous Escherichia coli injection. We measured mean arterial pressure (MAP), heart rate, renal blood flow RBF and renal ATP levels using magnetic resonance spectroscopy. After 2 h of sepsis, we randomly assigned sheep to receive an infusion of Ang II or vehicle intravenously and studied the effect of treatment on the same variables. Results: After E. coli administration, the experimental animals developed hypotensive sepsis (MAP from 92 ± 9 at baseline to 58 ± 4 mmHg at 4 h). Initially, RBF increased, then, after 4 h, it decreased below control levels (from 175 ± 28 at baseline to 138 ± 27 mL/min). Despite decreased RBF and hypotension, renal ATP was unchanged (total ATP to inorganic phosphate ratio from 0.69 ± 0.02 to 0.70 ± 0.02). Ang II infusion restored MAP but caused significant renal vasoconstriction. However, it induced no changes in renal ATP (total ATP to inorganic phosphate ratio from 0.79 ± 0.03 to 0.80 ± 0.02). Conclusions:During early hypotensive experimental Gram-negative sepsis, there was no evidence of renal bioenergetic failure despite decreased RBF. In this setting, the addition of a powerful renal vasoconstrictor does not lead to deterioration in renal bioenergetics.

A prospective study investigating the impact of school belonging factors on negative affect in adolescents

School belonging, measured as a unidimensional construct, is an important predictor of negative affective problems in adolescents, including depression and anxiety symptoms. A recent study found that one such measure, the Psychological Sense of School Membership (PSSM) scale, actually comprises three factors: Caring Relations, Acceptance, and Rejection. We explored the relations of these factors with negative affect in a sample of 504 Australian grade 7 and 8 students who completed the PSSM and Children’s Depression Inventory (CDI) at three time points. Each school belonging factor contributed to the prediction of negative affect in cross-sectional analyses. Scores on the Acceptance factor predicted subsequent negative affect for boys and girls, even controlling for prior negative affect. For girls, the Rejection factor was also significant in the prospective analysis. These findings have implications for the design of interventions and are further confirmation that school belonging should be considered a multidimensional construct.

Integrated approach for HP-LNG pump diagnosis and prognostics based on health state probability estimation

This paper presents an innovative prognostics model based on health state probability estimation embedded in the closed loop diagnostic and prognostic system. To employ an appropriate classifier for health state probability estimation in the proposed prognostic model, the comparative intelligent diagnostic tests were conducted using five different classifiers applied to the progressive fault levels of three faults in HP-LNG pump. Two sets of impeller-rubbing data were employed for the prediction of pump remnant life based on estimation of discrete health state probability using an outstanding capability of SVM and a feature selection technique. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognosis system has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for machine remnant life prediction in real life industrial applications.

A 2-h diagnostic protocol to assess patients with chest pain symptoms in the Asia-Pacific region (ASPECT): a prospective observational validation study

Background: Patients with chest pain contribute substantially to emergency department attendances, lengthy hospital stay, and inpatient admissions. A reliable, reproducible, and fast process to identify patients presenting with chest pain who have a low short-term risk of a major adverse cardiac event is needed to facilitate early discharge. We aimed to prospectively validate the safety of a predefined 2-h accelerated diagnostic protocol (ADP) to assess patients presenting to the emergency department with chest pain symptoms suggestive of acute coronary syndrome. Methods: This observational study was undertaken in 14 emergency departments in nine countries in the Asia-Pacific region, in patients aged 18 years and older with at least 5 min of chest pain. The ADP included use of a structured pre-test probability scoring method (Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction [TIMI] score), electrocardiograph, and point-of-care biomarker panel of troponin, creatine kinase MB, and myoglobin. The primary endpoint was major adverse cardiac events within 30 days after initial presentation (including initial hospital attendance). This trial is registered with the Australia-New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, number ACTRN12609000283279. Findings: 3582 consecutive patients were recruited and completed 30-day follow-up. 421 (11•8%) patients had a major adverse cardiac event. The ADP classified 352 (9•8%) patients as low risk and potentially suitable for early discharge. A major adverse cardiac event occurred in three (0•9%) of these patients, giving the ADP a sensitivity of 99•3% (95% CI 97•9–99•8), a negative predictive value of 99•1% (97•3–99•8), and a specificity of 11•0% (10•0–12•2). Interpretation: This novel ADP identifies patients at very low risk of a short-term major adverse cardiac event who might be suitable for early discharge. Such an approach could be used to decrease the overall observation periods and admissions for chest pain. The components needed for the implementation of this strategy are widely available. The ADP has the potential to affect health-service delivery worldwide.

Do the myths still exist? Revisiting people’s negative beliefs about organ donation upon death

The prevalence of myths preventing people partial to donation in Australia from consenting is unknown. Respondents (N = 468: 381 donors, 26 non-donors, 61 undecided) were surveyed about their (negative) donation beliefs. Approximately 30% of donors were neutral or supported negative beliefs about organ allocation, especially donation to undesirable organ recipients and a black market organ trade. Confusion about brain death, lack of family and religious support, and discomfort with donation were negative beliefs endorsed by some respondents irrespective of donor preference. Proportionally, donors had greater trust in hospitals/doctors than other groups. Some myths still exist but may vary with donation preference.

A review of system safety failure probability objectives for Unmanned Aircraft Systems

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) are one of a number of emerging aviation sectors. Such new aviation concepts present a significant challenge to National Aviation Authorities (NAAs) charged with ensuring the safety of their operation within the existing airspace system. There is significant heritage in the existing body of aviation safety regulations for Conventionally Piloted Aircraft (CPA). It can be argued that the promulgation of these regulations has delivered a level of safety tolerable to society, thus justifying the “default position” of applying these same standards, regulations and regulatory structures to emerging aviation concepts such as UAS. An example of this is the proposed “1309” regulation for UAS, which is based on the 1309 regulation for CPA. However, the absence of a pilot on-board an unmanned aircraft creates a fundamentally different risk paradigm to that of CPA. An appreciation of these differences is essential to the justification of the “default position” and in turn, to ensure the development of effective safety standards and regulations for UAS. This paper explores the suitability of the proposed “1309” regulation for UAS. A detailed review of the proposed regulation is provided and a number of key assumptions are identified and discussed. A high-level model characterising the expected number of third party fatalities on the ground is then used to determine the impact of these assumptions. The results clearly show that the “one size fits all” approach to the definition of 1309 regulations for UAS, which mandates equipment design and installation requirements independent of where the UAS is to be operated, will not lead to an effective management of the risks.

Negative space and positive environment : mapping opportunities for urban resilience

Cities have long held a fascination for people – as they grow and develop, there is a desire to know and understand the intricate interplay of elements that makes cities ‘live’. In part, this is a need for even greater efficiency in urban centres, yet the underlying quest is for a sustainable urban form. In order to make sense of the complex entities that we recognise cities to be, they have been compared to buildings, organisms and more recently machines. However the search for better and more elegant urban centres is hardly new, healthier and more efficient settlements were the aim of Modernism’s rational sub-division of functions, which has been translated into horizontal distribution through zoning, or vertical organisation thought highrise developments. However both of these approaches have been found to be unsustainable, as too many resources are required to maintain this kind or urbanisation and social consequences of either horizontal or vertical isolation must also be considered. From being absolute consumers of resources, of energy and of technology, cities need to change, to become sustainable in order to be more resilient and more efficient in supporting culture, society as well as economy. Our urban centres need to be re-imagined, re-conceptualised and re-defined, to match our changing society. One approach is to re-examine the compartmentalised, mono-functional approach of urban Modernism and to begin to investigate cities like ecologies, where every element supports and incorporates another, fulfilling more than just one function. This manner of seeing the city suggests a framework to guide the re-mixing of urban settlements. Beginning to understand the relationships between supporting elements and the nature of the connecting ‘web’ offers an invitation to investigate the often ignored, remnant spaces of cities. This ‘negative space’ is the residual from which space and place are carved out in the Contemporary city, providing the link between elements of urban settlement. Like all successful ecosystems, cities need to evolve and change over time in order to effectively respond to different lifestyles, development in culture and society as well as to meet environmental challenges. This paper seeks to investigate the role that negative space could have in the reorganisation of the re-mixed city. The space ‘in-between’ is analysed as an opportunity for infill development or re-development which provides to the urban settlement the variety that is a pre-requisite for ecosystem resilience. An analysis of the urban form is suggested as an empirical tool to map the opportunities already present in the urban environment and negative space is evaluated as a key element in achieving a positive development able to distribute diverse environmental and social facilities in the city.

Text mining in negative relevance feedback

It is a big challenge to clearly identify the boundary between positive and negative streams. Several attempts have used negative feedback to solve this challenge; however, there are two issues for using negative relevance feedback to improve the effectiveness of information filtering. The first one is how to select constructive negative samples in order to reduce the space of negative documents. The second issue is how to decide noisy extracted features that should be updated based on the selected negative samples. This paper proposes a pattern mining based approach to select some offenders from the negative documents, where an offender can be used to reduce the side effects of noisy features. It also classifies extracted features (i.e., terms) into three categories: positive specific terms, general terms, and negative specific terms. In this way, multiple revising strategies can be used to update extracted features. An iterative learning algorithm is also proposed to implement this approach on RCV1, and substantial experiments show that the proposed approach achieves encouraging performance.