Development of accident prediction models for rural highway intersections

A study was done to develop macrolevel crash prediction models that can be used to understand and identify effective countermeasures for improving signalized highway intersections and multilane stop-controlled highway intersections in rural areas. Poisson and negative binomial regression models were fit to intersection crash data from Georgia, California, and Michigan. To assess the suitability of the models, several goodness-of-fit measures were computed. The statistical models were then used to shed light on the relationships between crash occurrence and traffic and geometric features of the rural signalized intersections. The results revealed that traffic flow variables significantly affected the overall safety performance of the intersections regardless of intersection type and that the geometric features of intersections varied across intersection type and also influenced crash type.

Imported Dengue cases, weather variation and autochthonous Dengue incidence in Cairns, Australia

BACKGROUND Dengue fever (DF) outbreaks often arise from imported DF cases in Cairns, Australia. Few studies have incorporated imported DF cases in the estimation of the relationship between weather variability and incidence of autochthonous DF. The study aimed to examine the impact of weather variability on autochthonous DF infection after accounting for imported DF cases and then to explore the possibility of developing an empirical forecast system. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDS Data on weather variables, notified DF cases (including those acquired locally and overseas), and population size in Cairns were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics. A time-series negative-binomial hurdle model was used to assess the effects of imported DF cases and weather variability on autochthonous DF incidence. Our results showed that monthly autochthonous DF incidences were significantly associated with monthly imported DF cases (Relative Risk (RR):1.52; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-2.28), monthly minimum temperature ((o)C) (RR: 2.28; 95% CI: 1.77-2.93), monthly relative humidity (%) (RR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.06-1.37), monthly rainfall (mm) (RR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.31-0.81) and monthly standard deviation of daily relative humidity (%) (RR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.08-1.50). In the zero hurdle component, the occurrence of monthly autochthonous DF cases was significantly associated with monthly minimum temperature (Odds Ratio (OR): 1.64; 95% CI: 1.01-2.67). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Our research suggested that incidences of monthly autochthonous DF were strongly positively associated with monthly imported DF cases, local minimum temperature and inter-month relative humidity variability in Cairns. Moreover, DF outbreak in Cairns was driven by imported DF cases only under favourable seasons and weather conditions in the study.

Maternal pregravid body mass index and child hospital admissions in the first 5 years of life: results from an Australian birth cohort

Objectives: To examine the association of maternal pregravid body mass index (BMI) and child offspring, all-cause hospitalisations in the first 5 years of life. Methods: Prospective birth cohort study. From 2006 to 2011, 2779 pregnant women (2807 children) were enrolled in the Environments for Healthy Living: Griffith birth cohort study in South-East Queensland, Australia. Hospital delivery record and self-report baseline survey of maternal, household and demographic factors during pregnancy were linked to the Queensland Hospital Admitted Patients Data Collection from 1 November 2006 to 30 June 2012, for child admissions. Maternal pregravid BMI was classified as underweight (<18.5 kg m−2), normal weight (18.5–24.9 kg m−2), overweight (25.0–29.9 kg m−2) or obese (30 kg m−2). Main outcomes were the total number of child hospital admissions and ICD-10-AM diagnostic groupings in the first 5 years of life. Negative binomial regression models were calculated, adjusting for follow-up duration, demographic and health factors. The cohort comprised 8397.9 person years (PYs) follow-up. Results: Children of mothers who were classified as obese had an increased risk of all-cause hospital admissions in the first 5 years of life than the children of mothers with a normal BMI (adjusted rate ratio (RR) =1.48, 95% confidence interval 1.10–1.98). Conditions of the nervous system, infections, metabolic conditions, perinatal conditions, injuries and respiratory conditions were excessive, in both absolute and relative terms, for children of obese mothers, with RRs ranging from 1.3–4.0 (PYs adjusted). Children of mothers who were underweight were 1.8 times more likely to sustain an injury or poisoning than children of normal-weight mothers (PYs adjusted). Conclusion: Results suggest that if the intergenerational impact of maternal obesity (and similarly issues related to underweight) could be addressed, a significant reduction in child health care use, costs and public health burden would be likely.

Do motor vehicle crashes arise from single or multiple unique risk processes? An inquiry into crash causes and modelling

Crashes at any particular transport network location consist of a chain of events arising from a multitude of potential causes and/or contributing factors whose nature is likely to reflect geometric characteristics of the road, spatial effects of the surrounding environment, and human behavioural factors. It is postulated that these potential contributing factors do not arise from the same underlying risk process, and thus should be explicitly modelled and understood. The state of the practice in road safety network management applies a safety performance function that represents a single risk process to explain crash variability across network sites. This study aims to elucidate the importance of differentiating among various underlying risk processes contributing to the observed crash count at any particular network location. To demonstrate the principle of this theoretical and corresponding methodological approach, the study explores engineering (e.g. segment length, speed limit) and unobserved spatial factors (e.g. climatic factors, presence of schools) as two explicit sources of crash contributing factors. A Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) analysis is used to explore these two sources and to incorporate prior information about their contribution to crash occurrence. The methodology is applied to the state controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared with the traditional Negative Binomial (NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures indicates that the model with a double risk process outperforms the single risk process NB model, and thus indicating the need for further research to capture all the three crash generation processes into the SPFs.

Evaluation of a Pound Net Leader Designed to Reduce Sea Turtle Bycatch

Offshore pound net leaders in the southern portion of Chesapeake Bay in Virginia waters were documented to incidentally take protected loggerhead, Caretta caretta, and Kemp’s ridley, Lepidochelys kempii, sea turtles. Because of these losses, NOAA’s National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) in 2004 closed the area to offshore pound net leaders annually from 6 May to 15 July and initiated a study of an experimental leader design that replaced the top two-thirds of the traditional mesh panel leader with vertical ropes (0.95 cm) spaced 61 cm apart. This experimental leader was tested on four pound net sites on the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay in 2004 and 2005. During the 2 trial periods, 21 loggerhead and Kemp’s ridley sea turtles were found interacting with the control leader and 1 leatherback turtle, Dermochelys coriacea, was found interacting with the experimental leader. Results of a negative binomial regression analysis comparing the two leader designs found the experimental leader significantly reduced sea turtle interactions (p=0.03). Finfish were sampled from the pound nets in the study to assess finfish catch performance differences between the two leader designs. Although the conclusions from this element of the experiment are not robust, paired t-test and Wilcoxon signed rank test results determined no significant harvest weight difference between the two leaders. Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests did not reveal any substantive size selectivity differences between the two leaders.

Seeing the forest for the fuel

We demonstrate a new approach to understanding the role of fuelwood in the rural household economy by applying insights from travel cost modeling to author-compiled household survey data and meso-scale environmental statistics from Ruteng Park in Flores, Indonesia. We characterize Manggarai farming households' fuelwood collection trips as inputs into household production of the utility yielding service of cooking and heating. The number of trips taken by households depends on the shadow price of fuelwood collection or the travel cost, which is endogenous. Econometric analyses using truncated negative binomial regression models and correcting for endogeneity show that the Manggarai are 'economically rational' about fuelwood collection and access to the forests for fuelwood makes substantial contributions to household welfare. Increasing cost of forest access, wealth, use of alternative fuels, ownership of kerosene stoves, trees on farm, park staff activity, primary schools and roads, and overall development could all reduce dependence on collecting fuelwood from forests. © 2004 Cambridge University Press.

Risk of Several Cancers is Higher in Urban Areas after Adjusting for Socioeconomic Status. Results from a Two-Country Population-Based Study of 18 Common Cancers

Some studies suggest that there are urban-rural variations in cancer incidence but whether these simply reflect urban-rural socioeconomic variation is unclear. We investigated whether there were urban-rural variations in the incidence of 18 cancers, after adjusting for socioeconomic status. Cancers diagnosed between 1995 and 2007 were extracted from the population-based National Cancer Registry Ireland and Northern Ireland Cancer Registry and categorised by urban-rural status, based on population density of area of residence at diagnosis (rural 15 people per hectare). Relative risks (RR) were calculated by negative binomial regression, adjusting for age, country and three area-based markers of socioeconomic status. Risks were significantly higher in both sexes in urban than rural residents with head and neck (males RR urban vs. rural = 1.53, 95 % CI 1.42-1.64; females RR = 1.29, 95 % CI 1.15-1.45), esophageal (males 1.21, 1.11-1.31; females 1.21, 1.08-1.35), stomach (males 1.36, 1.27-1.46; females 1.19, 1.08-1.30), colorectal (males 1.14, 1.09-1.18; females 1.04, 1.00-1.09), lung (males 1.54, 1.47-1.61; females 1.74, 1.65-1.84), non-melanoma skin (males 1.13, 1.10-1.17; females 1.23, 1.19-1.27) and bladder (males 1.30, 1.21-1.39; females 1.31, 1.17-1.46) cancers. Risks of breast, cervical, kidney and brain cancer were significantly higher in females in urban areas. Prostate cancer risk was higher in rural areas (0.94, 0.90-0.97). Other cancers showed no significant urban-rural differences. After adjusting for socioeconomic variation, urban-rural differences were evident for 12 of 18 cancers. Variations in healthcare utilization and known risk factors likely explain some of the observed associations. Explanations for others are unclear and, in the interests of equity, warrant further investigation. © 2014 The New York Academy of Medicine.

Excess mortality in Type 1 diabetes diagnosed in childhood and adolescence: a systematic review of population-based cohorts

Aims: Systematic review of mortality in childhood-/adolescent-diagnosed Type 1 diabetes and examination of factors explaining the mortality variation between studies. 
Methods: Relevant studies were identified from systematic searches of MEDLINE and EMBASE. Observed and expected numbers of deaths were extracted, and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Negative binomial regression was used to investigate association between mortality and study/country characteristics.
Results: Thirteen relevant publications with mortality data were identified describing 23 independent studies. SMRs varied markedly ranging from 0 to 854 (chi-squared = 70.68,df = 21, p<0.0001). Significant associations were observed between SMR and mid-year of follow-up [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.95, 95 % CI 0.91–0.99 equivalent to a 5 % decrease per year], between SMR and infant mortality rate (IRR 1.07, 95 % CI 1.02–1.12, a 7 % increase for each death per 1,000 live births) and, after omitting an outlier, between SMR and health expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) (IRR 0.79, 95 % CI 0.68–0.93, a 21 % decrease for each one percent increase in GDP). No relationship was detected between SMR and a country’s childhood diabetes incidence rate or GDP.
Conclusions: Excess mortality in childhood-/adolescent diagnosed Type 1 diabetes is apparent across countries worldwide. Excesses were less marked in more recent studies and in countries with lower infant mortality and higher health expenditure.

The potential utility of age, triage score, and disposition data contained in emergency department electronic records for influenza-like illness surveillance in Montreal

La surveillance de l’influenza s’appuie sur un large spectre de données, dont les données de surveillance syndromique provenant des salles d’urgences. De plus en plus de variables sont enregistrées dans les dossiers électroniques des urgences et mises à la disposition des équipes de surveillance. L’objectif principal de ce mémoire est d’évaluer l’utilité potentielle de l’âge, de la catégorie de triage et de l’orientation au départ de l’urgence pour améliorer la surveillance de la morbidité liée aux cas sévères d’influenza. Les données d’un sous-ensemble des hôpitaux de Montréal ont été utilisées, d’avril 2006 à janvier 2011. Les hospitalisations avec diagnostic de pneumonie ou influenza ont été utilisées comme mesure de la morbidité liée aux cas sévères d’influenza, et ont été modélisées par régression binomiale négative, en tenant compte des tendances séculaires et saisonnières. En comparaison avec les visites avec syndrome d’allure grippale (SAG) totales, les visites avec SAG stratifiées par âge, par catégorie de triage et par orientation de départ ont amélioré le modèle prédictif des hospitalisations avec pneumonie ou influenza. Avant d’intégrer ces variables dans le système de surveillance de Montréal, des étapes additionnelles sont suggérées, incluant l’optimisation de la définition du syndrome d’allure grippale à utiliser, la confirmation de la valeur de ces prédicteurs avec de nouvelles données et l’évaluation de leur utilité pratique.

Physical disability, recent illnesses and health self-assessment in a population-based study in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Objectives. To investigate health self-assessment and to estimate the prevalence of chronic diseases and recent illnesses in people with and without physical disabilities (PD) in the state of Sao Paulo, southeastern Brazil. Study design. A Cross-sectional study comprising two population-based health surveys conducted in 2002 and 2003. Methods. A total of 8317 persons (165 with PD) were interviewed in the two studies. Variables concerning to health self-assessment; chronic disease and recent illness were compared in the people with and without PD. Negative binomial regression was used in the analysis. Results. Subjects with PD more often assessed their health as poor/very poor compared to non-disabled ones. They reported more illnesses in the 15 days prior to interview as well as more chronic diseases (skin conditions, anaemia, chronic kidney disease, stroke, depression/anxiety, migraine/headache, pulmonary diseases, hypertension, diabetes, arthritis/arthrosis/rheumatic conditions and heart disease). This higher disease prevalence can be either attributed to disability itself or be associated to gender, age and schooling. Conclusions. Subjects with PD had more recent illnesses and chronic diseases and poorer health self-assessment than non-disabled ones. Age, gender, schooling and disability have individual roles in disease development among disabled people.

Power series generalized nonlinear models

We introduce in this paper a new class of discrete generalized nonlinear models to extend the binomial, Poisson and negative binomial models to cope with count data. This class of models includes some important models such as log-nonlinear models, logit, probit and negative binomial nonlinear models, generalized Poisson and generalized negative binomial regression models, among other models, which enables the fitting of a wide range of models to count data. We derive an iterative process for fitting these models by maximum likelihood and discuss inference on the parameters. The usefulness of the new class of models is illustrated with an application to a real data set. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Distribuição Espacial da Lagarta-do-Cartucho, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), na Cultura do Milho

O estudo da distribuição espacial da lagarta-do-cartucho, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith), na cultura do milho é fundamental para garantir a utilização de estratégias de controle, otimização de técnicas de amostragem, determinação de danos econômicos e incorporação da dinâmica espacial dentro do modelo populacional. O experimento foi conduzido em três campos contendo 100 parcelas cada, sendo amostradas 10 plantas ao acaso por parcela, num total de 1000 plantas por campo em cinco datas de amostragem. Foram contados o número de lagartas pequenas (menor que 10 mm) e grandes (maior que 10 mm) por planta. As lagartas pequenas apresentaram um ajuste muito bom à distribuição binomial negativa e não à Poisson, indicando que esta categoria larval encontra-se agregada no campo. Os números de lagartas grandes por planta ajustaram-se razoavelmente à distribuição binomial negativa, com algumas datas ajustando-se à distribuição de Poisson. Portanto, as lagartas pequenas (alta densidade populacional) têm distribuição agregada no campo, enquanto que as lagartas grandes (baixa densidade populacional) podem ser mais dispersas no campo, tendendo à aleatoriedade.

Distribuição espacial de Tenuipalpus heveae Baker (Acari: Tenuipalpidae) na cultura da seringueira

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Physical disability, recent illnesses and health self-assessment in a population-based study in São Paulo, Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Relação entre desempenho e infecções por nematódeos gastrintestinais em bovinos Nelore em crescimento

Este estudo teve por objetivo verificar a associação entre o desempenho e a carga parasitária de 28 machos inteiros da raça Nelore (a partir de um ano de idade), naturalmente infectados por nematódeos gastrintestinais. de novembro de 1999 a junho de 2000, os animais foram pesados quinzenalmente, período no qual foram colhidas amostras de fezes e de sangue para a realização, respectivamente, de exames coprológicos e sangüíneos. Os dados da contagem de ovos por grama de fezes (OPG) ajustaram-se ao modelo de distribuição binomial negativa, indicando que a distribuição de nematódeos no rebanho é agregada. Não ficou evidenciada associação entre ganho de peso e contagem de OPG, e entre contagem de OPG e volume globular (VG). de 10 coeficientes de correlação entre ganho de peso e VG, oito foram negativos, mas apenas dois significativos (P<0,05). As estimativas de repetibilidade da contagem de OPG, LOG (OPG+1) e VG foram de 0,26, 0,25 e 0,33, respectivamente. Cooperia punctata foi a espécie mais freqüentemente encontrada parasitando os animais. Além dessa espécie, foram detectados os seguintes nematódeos: Haemonchus placei, Haemonchus similis, Trichostrongylus axei, Bunostomum phlebotomum e Oesophagostomum radiatum. O parasitismo por nematódeos gastrintestinais aparentemente não prejudicou o desenvolvimento dos animais estudados.