On the relationship between Bayesian error bars and the input data density

We investigate the dependence of Bayesian error bars on the distribution of data in input space. For generalized linear regression models we derive an upper bound on the error bars which shows that, in the neighbourhood of the data points, the error bars are substantially reduced from their prior values. For regions of high data density we also show that the contribution to the output variance due to the uncertainty in the weights can exhibit an approximate inverse proportionality to the probability density. Empirical results support these conclusions.

A methodology for evaluating and selecting processes for natural gas conditioning

The aim of this work was to develop a generic methodology for evaluating and selecting, at the conceptual design phase of a project, the best process technology for Natural Gas conditioning. A generic approach would be simple and require less time and would give a better understanding of why one process is to be preferred over another. This will lead to a better understanding of the problem. Such a methodology would be useful in evaluating existing, novel and hybrid technologies. However, to date no information is available in the published literature on such a generic approach to gas processing. It is believed that the generic methodology presented here is the first available for choosing the best or cheapest method of separation for natural gas dew-point control. Process cost data are derived from evaluations carried out by the vendors. These evaluations are then modelled using a steady-state simulation package. From the results of the modelling the cost data received are correlated and defined with respect to the design or sizing parameters. This allows comparisons between different process systems to be made in terms of the overall process. The generic methodology is based on the concept of a Comparative Separation Cost. This takes into account the efficiency of each process, the value of its products, and the associated costs. To illustrate the general applicability of the methodology, three different cases suggested by BP Exploration are evaluated. This work has shown that it is possible to identify the most competitive process operations at the conceptual design phase and illustrate why one process has an advantage over another. Furthermore, the same methodology has been used to identify and evaluate hybrid processes. It has been determined here that in some cases they offer substantial advantages over the separate process techniques.

Statnote 37 : the negative binomial distribution

An organism living in water, and present at low density, may be distributed at random and therefore, samples taken from the water are likely to be distributed according to the Poisson distribution. The distribution of many organisms, however, is not random, individuals being either aggregated into clusters or more uniformly distributed. By fitting a Poisson distribution to data, it is only possible to test the hypothesis that an observed set of frequencies does not deviate significantly from an expected random pattern. Significant deviations from random, either as a result of increasing uniformity or aggregation, may be recognized by either rejection of the random hypothesis or by examining the variance/mean (V/M) ratio of the data. Hence, a V/M ratio not significantly different from unity indicates a random distribution, greater than unity a clustered distribution, and less then unity a regular or uniform distribution . If individual cells are clustered, however, the negative binomial distribution should provide a better description of the data. In addition, a parameter of this distribution, viz., the binomial exponent (k), may be used as a measure of the ‘intensity’ of aggregation present. Hence, this Statnote describes how to fit the negative binomial distribution to counts of a microorganism in samples taken from a freshwater environment.

Household Preferences for Financing Hurricane Risk Mitigation: A Survey Based Empirical Analysis

After a series of major storms over the last 20 years, the state of financing for U.S. natural disaster insurance has undergone substantial disruptions causing many federal and state backed programs against residential property damage to become severally underfunded. In order to regain actuarial soundness, policy makers have proposed a shift to a system that reflects risk-based pricing for property insurance. We examine survey responses from 1394 single-family homeowners in the state of Florida for support of several natural disaster mitigation policy reforms. Utilizing a partial proportional odds model we test for effects of location, risk perception, socio-economic and housing characteristics on support for policy reforms. Our findings suggest residents across the state, not just risk-prone homeowners, support the current subsidized model. We also examine several other policy questions from the survey to verify our initial results. Finally, the implications of our findings are discussed to provide inputs to policymakers.

Commentary on An Enquiry into the Nature and Origin of Literary Property (1762)

One of a number of published commentaries contributing to the mid-eighteenth century debate concerning the nature of literary property. The author of An Enquiry sought to repudiate the concept of a natural authorial property right existing at common law. In so doing, he specifically engaged with various aspects of William Warburton's earlier commentary (see: uk_1747), as well as presenting arguments that drew upon the nature of property in general, the differences between the right claimed by proponents of the common law right and other acknowledged incorporeal properties, the similarities between patents and copyright, the history of literary property, the experience of other jurisdictions (drawing upon Venice in particular), and the consequences that would follow from conceding the existence of a perpetual right both for authors in particular and society in general. This commentary, in turn, drew its own response in the guise of A Vindication of the Exclusive Rights of Authors, to their own work (1762).

Exploring the feasibility of applying data mining for library reference service improvement : a case study of Turku Main Library

Data mining, as a heatedly discussed term, has been studied in various fields. Its possibilities in refining the decision-making process, realizing potential patterns and creating valuable knowledge have won attention of scholars and practitioners. However, there are less studies intending to combine data mining and libraries where data generation occurs all the time. Therefore, this thesis plans to fill such a gap. Meanwhile, potential opportunities created by data mining are explored to enhance one of the most important elements of libraries: reference service. In order to thoroughly demonstrate the feasibility and applicability of data mining, literature is reviewed to establish a critical understanding of data mining in libraries and attain the current status of library reference service. The result of the literature review indicates that free online data resources other than data generated on social media are rarely considered to be applied in current library data mining mandates. Therefore, the result of the literature review motivates the presented study to utilize online free resources. Furthermore, the natural match between data mining and libraries is established. The natural match is explained by emphasizing the data richness reality and considering data mining as one kind of knowledge, an easy choice for libraries, and a wise method to overcome reference service challenges. The natural match, especially the aspect that data mining could be helpful for library reference service, lays the main theoretical foundation for the empirical work in this study. Turku Main Library was selected as the case to answer the research question: whether data mining is feasible and applicable for reference service improvement. In this case, the daily visit from 2009 to 2015 in Turku Main Library is considered as the resource for data mining. In addition, corresponding weather conditions are collected from Weather Underground, which is totally free online. Before officially being analyzed, the collected dataset is cleansed and preprocessed in order to ensure the quality of data mining. Multiple regression analysis is employed to mine the final dataset. Hourly visits are the independent variable and weather conditions, Discomfort Index and seven days in a week are dependent variables. In the end, four models in different seasons are established to predict visiting situations in each season. Patterns are realized in different seasons and implications are created based on the discovered patterns. In addition, library-climate points are generated by a clustering method, which simplifies the process for librarians using weather data to forecast library visiting situation. Then the data mining result is interpreted from the perspective of improving reference service. After this data mining work, the result of the case study is presented to librarians so as to collect professional opinions regarding the possibility of employing data mining to improve reference services. In the end, positive opinions are collected, which implies that it is feasible to utilizing data mining as a tool to enhance library reference service.

An assessment of data leakage in Firefox under different conditions.

Data leakage is a serious issue and can result in the loss of sensitive data, compromising user accounts and details, potentially affecting millions of internet users. This paper contributes to research in online security and reducing personal footprint by evaluating the levels of privacy provided by the Firefox browser. The aim of identifying conditions that would minimize data leakage and maximize data privacy is addressed by assessing and comparing data leakage in the four possible browsing modes: normal and private modes using a browser installed on the host PC or using a portable browser from a connected USB device respectively. To provide a firm foundation for analysis, a series of carefully designed, pre-planned browsing sessions were repeated in each of the various modes of Firefox. This included low RAM environments to determine any effects low RAM may have on browser data leakage. The results show that considerable data leakage may occur within Firefox. In normal mode, all of the browsing information is stored within the Mozilla profile folder in Firefox-specific SQLite databases and sessionstore.js. While passwords were not stored as plain text, other confidential information such as credit card numbers could be recovered from the Form history under certain conditions. There is no difference when using a portable browser in normal mode, except that the Mozilla profile folder is located on the USB device rather than the host's hard disk. By comparison, private browsing reduces data leakage. Our findings confirm that no information is written to the Firefox-related locations on the hard disk or USB device during private browsing, implying that no deletion would be necessary and no remnants of data would be forensically recoverable from unallocated space. However, two aspects of data leakage occurred equally in all four browsing modes. Firstly, all of the browsing history was stored in the live RAM and was therefore accessible while the browser remained open. Secondly, in low RAM situations, the operating system caches out RAM to pagefile.sys on the host's hard disk. Irrespective of the browsing mode used, this may include Firefox history elements which can then remain forensically recoverable for considerable time.

Influência da idade no comportamento da frequência cardíaca na transição repouso-exercício: uma análise por deltas e regressão linear

BACKGROUND: Changes in heart rate during rest-exercise transition can be characterized by the application of mathematical calculations, such as deltas 0-10 and 0-30 seconds to infer on the parasympathetic nervous system and linear regression and delta applied to data range from 60 to 240 seconds to infer on the sympathetic nervous system. The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that young and middle-aged subjects have different heart rate responses in exercise of moderate and intense intensity, with different mathematical calculations. METHODS: Seven middle-aged men and ten young men apparently healthy were subject to constant load tests (intense and moderate) in cycle ergometer. The heart rate data were submitted to analysis of deltas (0-10, 0-30 and 60-240 seconds) and simple linear regression (60-240 seconds). The parameters obtained from simple linear regression analysis were: intercept and slope angle. We used the Shapiro-Wilk test to check the distribution of data and the t test for unpaired comparisons between groups. The level of statistical significance was 5%. RESULTS: The value of the intercept and delta 0-10 seconds was lower in middle age in two loads tested and the inclination angle was lower in moderate exercise in middle age. CONCLUSION: The young subjects present greater magnitude of vagal withdrawal in the initial stage of the HR response during constant load exercise and higher speed of adjustment of sympathetic response in moderate exercise.

The generalized log-gamma mixture model with covariates: local influence and residual analysis

In a sample of censored survival times, the presence of an immune proportion of individuals who are not subject to death, failure or relapse, may be indicated by a relatively high number of individuals with large censored survival times. In this paper the generalized log-gamma model is modified for the possibility that long-term survivors may be present in the data. The model attempts to separately estimate the effects of covariates on the surviving fraction, that is, the proportion of the population for which the event never occurs. The logistic function is used for the regression model of the surviving fraction. Inference for the model parameters is considered via maximum likelihood. Some influence methods, such as the local influence and total local influence of an individual are derived, analyzed and discussed. Finally, a data set from the medical area is analyzed under the log-gamma generalized mixture model. A residual analysis is performed in order to select an appropriate model.

Chemical Constituents of Papulaspora immersa, an Endophyte from Smallanthus sonchifolius (Asteraceae), and Their Cytotoxic Activity

Papulaspora immersa H. H. HOTS ON was isolated from roots and leaves of Smallanthus sonchifolius (POEPP. and ENDL.) H. ROB. (Asteraceae), traditionally known as Yacon. The fungus was cultured in rice, and, from the AcOEt fraction, 14 compounds were isolated. Among them, (22E,24R)-8,14-epoxyergosta-4,22-diene-3,6-dione (4), 2,3-epoxy-1,2,3,4-tetrahydronaphthalene-c-1,c-4,8-triol (10), and the chromone papulasporin (13) were new secondary metabolites. The spectral data of the known natural products were compared with the literature data, and their structures were established as the (24R)stigmast 4 en 3 one (1), 24-methylenecycloartan-3 beta-ol (2), (22E,24R)-ergosta-4,6,8(14),22-tetraen-3-one (3), (-)-(3R,4R)-4-hydroxymellein (5), (-)-(3R)-5-hydroxymellein (6), 6,8-dihydroxy-3-methylisocoumarin (7), (-)-(4S)-4,8-dihydroxy-alpha-tetralone (8), naphthalene-1,8-diol (9), 6,7,8-trihydroxy-3-methylisocoumarin (11), 7-hydroxy-2,5-dimethylchromone (12), and tyrosol (14). Compound 4 showed the highest cytotoxic activity against the human tumor cell lines MDA-MB435 (melanoma), HCT-8 (colon), SF295 (glioblastoma), and HL-60 (promyelocytic leukemia), with IC(50) values of 3.3, 14.7, 5.0 and 1.6 mu m, respectively. Strong synergistic effects were also observed with compound 5 and some of the isolated steroidal compounds.

Epidemiological aspects of human and canine visceral leishmaniasis in Montes Claros, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, between 2007 and 2009

INTRODUCTION: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an expanding zoonosis in Brazil and is becoming urbanized in several Brazilian regions. This study aims to describe the epidemiological features of human and canine VL in the municipality of Montes Claros, State of Minas Gerais, by focusing on their spatial distribution. METHODS: Data concerning human cases and reactive dogs for VL from 2007 to 2009 were obtained from the Information System for Disease Notification (SINAN) and from reports of the local Centro de Controle de Zoonoses (CCZ), respectively. The addresses of human and canine cases have been georeferenced and localized in thematic maps, allowing their spatial visualization as well as the identification of areas at risk of VL transmission. RESULTS: Ninety-five cases of human VL were reported in the period. The 0-9-year-old age group (48.4%) was the most affected, within which the majority consisted of male patients (64%). Of the samples collected for the canine serological survey, 2,919 (6.3%) were reactive to VL. The spatial localization of these cases shows that the disease was scattered in the urban area of the municipality. Areas showing a higher dissemination risk were concentrated in the central, northwestern, and southern regions of the city. CONCLUSIONS: Identifying the areas most at risk in urban Montes Claros may help guide actions toward local epidemiological vigilance and control.

Gestión de recursos en nodos multi-core de memoria compartida

La gestión de recursos en los procesadores multi-core ha ganado importancia con la evolución de las aplicaciones y arquitecturas. Pero esta gestión es muy compleja. Por ejemplo, una misma aplicación paralela ejecutada múltiples veces con los mismos datos de entrada, en un único nodo multi-core, puede tener tiempos de ejecución muy variables. Hay múltiples factores hardware y software que afectan al rendimiento. La forma en que los recursos hardware (cómputo y memoria) se asignan a los procesos o threads, posiblemente de varias aplicaciones que compiten entre sí, es fundamental para determinar este rendimiento. La diferencia entre hacer la asignación de recursos sin conocer la verdadera necesidad de la aplicación, frente a asignación con una meta específica es cada vez mayor. La mejor manera de realizar esta asignación és automáticamente, con una mínima intervención del programador. Es importante destacar, que la forma en que la aplicación se ejecuta en una arquitectura no necesariamente es la más adecuada, y esta situación puede mejorarse a través de la gestión adecuada de los recursos disponibles. Una apropiada gestión de recursos puede ofrecer ventajas tanto al desarrollador de las aplicaciones, como al entorno informático donde ésta se ejecuta, permitiendo un mayor número de aplicaciones en ejecución con la misma cantidad de recursos. Así mismo, esta gestión de recursos no requeriría introducir cambios a la aplicación, o a su estrategia operativa. A fin de proponer políticas para la gestión de los recursos, se analizó el comportamiento de aplicaciones intensivas de cómputo e intensivas de memoria. Este análisis se llevó a cabo a través del estudio de los parámetros de ubicación entre los cores, la necesidad de usar la memoria compartida, el tamaño de la carga de entrada, la distribución de los datos dentro del procesador y la granularidad de trabajo. Nuestro objetivo es identificar cómo estos parámetros influyen en la eficiencia de la ejecución, identificar cuellos de botella y proponer posibles mejoras. Otra propuesta es adaptar las estrategias ya utilizadas por el Scheduler con el fin de obtener mejores resultados.

Thermodynamics and log–contrast analysis in fluid geochemistry

There are two principal chemical concepts that are important for studying the naturalenvironment. The first one is thermodynamics, which describes whether a system is atequilibrium or can spontaneously change by chemical reactions. The second main conceptis how fast chemical reactions (kinetics or rate of chemical change) take place wheneverthey start. In this work we examine a natural system in which both thermodynamics andkinetic factors are important in determining the abundance of NH+4 , NO−2 and NO−3 insuperficial waters. Samples were collected in the Arno Basin (Tuscany, Italy), a system inwhich natural and antrophic effects both contribute to highly modify the chemical compositionof water. Thermodynamical modelling based on the reduction-oxidation reactionsinvolving the passage NH+4 -& NO−2 -& NO−3 in equilibrium conditions has allowed todetermine the Eh redox potential values able to characterise the state of each sample and,consequently, of the fluid environment from which it was drawn. Just as pH expressesthe concentration of H+ in solution, redox potential is used to express the tendency of anenvironment to receive or supply electrons. In this context, oxic environments, as thoseof river systems, are said to have a high redox potential because O2 is available as anelectron acceptor.Principles of thermodynamics and chemical kinetics allow to obtain a model that oftendoes not completely describe the reality of natural systems. Chemical reactions may indeedfail to achieve equilibrium because the products escape from the site of the rectionor because reactions involving the trasformation are very slow, so that non-equilibriumconditions exist for long periods. Moreover, reaction rates can be sensitive to poorly understoodcatalytic effects or to surface effects, while variables as concentration (a largenumber of chemical species can coexist and interact concurrently), temperature and pressurecan have large gradients in natural systems. By taking into account this, data of 91water samples have been modelled by using statistical methodologies for compositionaldata. The application of log–contrast analysis has allowed to obtain statistical parametersto be correlated with the calculated Eh values. In this way, natural conditions in whichchemical equilibrium is hypothesised, as well as underlying fast reactions, are comparedwith those described by a stochastic approach

Rhinovirus Genome Variation during Chronic Upper and Lower Respiratory Tract Infections.

Routine screening of lung transplant recipients and hospital patients for respiratory virus infections allowed to identify human rhinovirus (HRV) in the upper and lower respiratory tracts, including immunocompromised hosts chronically infected with the same strain over weeks or months. Phylogenetic analysis of 144 HRV-positive samples showed no apparent correlation between a given viral genotype or species and their ability to invade the lower respiratory tract or lead to protracted infection. By contrast, protracted infections were found almost exclusively in immunocompromised patients, thus suggesting that host factors rather than the virus genotype modulate disease outcome, in particular the immune response. Complete genome sequencing of five chronic cases to study rhinovirus genome adaptation showed that the calculated mutation frequency was in the range observed during acute human infections. Analysis of mutation hot spot regions between specimens collected at different times or in different body sites revealed that non-synonymous changes were mostly concentrated in the viral capsid genes VP1, VP2 and VP3, independent of the HRV type. In an immunosuppressed lung transplant recipient infected with the same HRV strain for more than two years, both classical and ultra-deep sequencing of samples collected at different time points in the upper and lower respiratory tracts showed that these virus populations were phylogenetically indistinguishable over the course of infection, except for the last month. Specific signatures were found in the last two lower respiratory tract populations, including changes in the 5'UTR polypyrimidine tract and the VP2 immunogenic site 2. These results highlight for the first time the ability of a given rhinovirus to evolve in the course of a natural infection in immunocompromised patients and complement data obtained from previous experimental inoculation studies in immunocompetent volunteers.

Analysis of susceptibility to human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) by comparative genetics

Summary [résumé français voir ci-dessous] From the beginning of the 20th century the world population has been confronted with the human immune deficiency virus 1 (HIV-1). This virus has the particularity to mutate fast, and could thus evade and adapt to the human host. Our closest evolutionary related organisms, the non-human primates, are less susceptible to HIV-1. In a broader sense, primates are differentially susceptible to various retrovirus. Species specificity may be due to genetic differences among primates. In the present study we applied evolutionary and comparative genetic techniques to characterize the evolutionary pattern of host cellular determinants of HIV-1 pathogenesis. The study of the evolution of genes coding for proteins participating to the restriction or pathogenesis of HIV-1 may help understanding the genetic basis of modern human susceptibility to infection. To perform comparative genetics analysis, we constituted a collection of primate DNA and RNA to allow generation of de novo sequence of gene orthologs. More recently, release to the public domain of two new primate complete genomes (bornean orang-utan and common marmoset) in addition of the three previously available genomes (human, chimpanzee and Rhesus monkey) help scaling up the evolutionary and comparative genome analysis. Sequence analysis used phylogenetic and statistical methods for detecting molecular adaptation. We identified different selective pressures acting on host proteins involved in HIV-1 pathogenesis. Proteins with HIV-1 restriction properties in non-human primates were under strong positive selection, in particular in regions of interaction with viral proteins. These regions carried key residues for the antiviral activity. Proteins of the innate immunity presented an evolutionary pattern of conservation (purifying selection) but with signals of relaxed constrain if we compared them to the average profile of purifying selection of the primate genomes. Large scale analysis resulted in patterns of evolutionary pressures according to molecular function, biological process and cellular distribution. The data generated by various analyses served to guide the ancestral reconstruction of TRIM5a a potent antiviral host factor. The resurrected TRIM5a from the common ancestor of Old world monkeys was effective against HIV-1 and the recent resurrected hominoid variants were more effective against other retrovirus. Thus, as the result of trade-offs in the ability to restrict different retrovirus, human might have been exposed to HIV-1 at a time when TRIM5a lacked the appropriate specific restriction activity. The application of evolutionary and comparative genetic tools should be considered for the systematical assessment of host proteins relevant in viral pathogenesis, and to guide biological and functional studies. Résumé La population mondiale est confrontée depuis le début du vingtième siècle au virus de l'immunodéficience humaine 1 (VIH-1). Ce virus a un taux de mutation particulièrement élevé, il peut donc s'évader et s'adapter très efficacement à son hôte. Les organismes évolutivement le plus proches de l'homme les primates nonhumains sont moins susceptibles au VIH-1. De façon générale, les primates répondent différemment aux rétrovirus. Cette spécificité entre espèces doit résider dans les différences génétiques entre primates. Dans cette étude nous avons appliqué des techniques d'évolution et de génétique comparative pour caractériser le modèle évolutif des déterminants cellulaires impliqués dans la pathogenèse du VIH- 1. L'étude de l'évolution des gènes, codant pour des protéines impliquées dans la restriction ou la pathogenèse du VIH-1, aidera à la compréhension des bases génétiques ayant récemment rendu l'homme susceptible. Pour les analyses de génétique comparative, nous avons constitué une collection d'ADN et d'ARN de primates dans le but d'obtenir des nouvelles séquences de gènes orthologues. Récemment deux nouveaux génomes complets ont été publiés (l'orang-outan du Bornéo et Marmoset commun) en plus des trois génomes déjà disponibles (humain, chimpanzé, macaque rhésus). Ceci a permis d'améliorer considérablement l'étendue de l'analyse. Pour détecter l'adaptation moléculaire nous avons analysé les séquences à l'aide de méthodes phylogénétiques et statistiques. Nous avons identifié différentes pressions de sélection agissant sur les protéines impliquées dans la pathogenèse du VIH-1. Des protéines avec des propriétés de restriction du VIH-1 dans les primates non-humains présentent un taux particulièrement haut de remplacement d'acides aminés (sélection positive). En particulier dans les régions d'interaction avec les protéines virales. Ces régions incluent des acides aminés clé pour l'activité de restriction. Les protéines appartenant à l'immunité inné présentent un modèle d'évolution de conservation (sélection purifiante) mais avec des traces de "relaxation" comparé au profil général de sélection purifiante du génome des primates. Une analyse à grande échelle a permis de classifier les modèles de pression évolutive selon leur fonction moléculaire, processus biologique et distribution cellulaire. Les données générées par les différentes analyses ont permis la reconstruction ancestrale de TRIM5a, un puissant facteur antiretroviral. Le TRIM5a ressuscité, correspondant à l'ancêtre commun entre les grands singes et les groupe des catarrhiniens, est efficace contre le VIH-1 moderne. Les TRIM5a ressuscités plus récents, correspondant aux ancêtres des grands singes, sont plus efficaces contre d'autres rétrovirus. Ainsi, trouver un compromis dans la capacité de restreindre différents rétrovirus, l'homme aurait été exposé au VIH-1 à une période où TRIM5a manquait d'activité de restriction spécifique contre celui-ci. L'application de techniques d'évolution et de génétique comparative devraient être considérées pour l'évaluation systématique de protéines impliquées dans la pathogenèse virale, ainsi que pour guider des études biologiques et fonctionnelles