Extinction risk from climate change

Climate change over the past ,30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species1,2 and has been implicated in one species-level extinction3. Using projections of species’ distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth’s terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a powerlaw relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15–37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be ‘committed to extinction’. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (,18%) than mid-range (,24%) and maximum change (,35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse

Anomalous extinction behaviour towards the type Ia SN 2003cg

We present optical and near-infrared photometry and spectroscopy of the Type Ia SN 2003cg, which exploded in the nearby galaxy NGC 3169. The observations cover a period between -8.5 and +414 d post-maximum. SN 2003cg is a normal but highly reddened Type Ia event. Its B magnitude at maximum B-max = 15.94 +/- 0.04 and Delta m(15)(B)(obs) = 1.12 +/- 0.04 [Delta m(15)(B)(intrinsic) = 1.25 +/- 0.05]. Allowing R-V to become a free parameter within the Cardelli et al. extinction law, simultaneous matches to a range of colour curves of normal SNe Ia yielded E(B - V) = 1.33 +/- 0.11, and RV = 1.80 +/- 0.19. While the value obtained for R-V is small, such values have been invoked in the past, and may imply a grain size which is small compared with the average value for the local interstellar medium.

Does the freshwater pearl mussel, Margaritifera margaritifera L., face extinction in Northern Ireland?

1. Until recently the status of Margaritifera margaritifera L. in Northern Ireland was not well documented. This paper presents the results of field surveys conducted in 1990/'91 and in 1996 at over 200 sites covering all major river systems in Northern Ireland. 2.Margaritifera populations in Northern Ireland were recorded at just 20 sites mainly located in the west of the province. Formerly many rivers supported vast numbers of mussels but anecdotal evidence points to periods of major declines in mussel populations since the turn of the century. 3. The absence of mussels smaller than 30 mm in length at most sites suggests very little or no recruitment during the past decade. During the surveys, deteriorating water quality, habitat disturbance and pearl fishing were recorded and are the major causes of the decline of the freshwater pearl mussel in Northern Ireland. 4. Unless the above problems are alleviated in the very near future, M.margaritifera will probably become extinct in Northern Ireland. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Determination of the molar extinction coefficient for the ferric reducing/antioxidant power assay

The FRAP reagent contains 2,4,6-tris(2-pyridyl)-s-triazine, which forms a blue-violet complex ion in the presence of ferrous ions. Although the FRAP (ferric reducing/antioxidant power) assay is popular and has been in use for many years, the correct molar extinction coefficient of this complex ion under FRAP assay conditions has never been published, casting doubt on the validity of previous calibrations. A previously reported value of 19.800 is an underestimate. We determined that the molar extinction coefficient was 21,140. The value of the molar extinction coefficient was also shown to depend on the type of assay and was found to be 22,230 under iron assay conditions, in good agreement with published data. Redox titration indicated that the ferrous sulfate heptahydrate calibrator recommended by Benzie and Strain, the FRAP assay inventors, is prone to efflorescence and, therefore, is unreliable. Ferrous ammonium sulfate hexahydrate in dilute sulfuric acid was a more stable alternative. Few authors publish their calibration data, and this makes comparative analyses impossible. A critical examination of the limited number of examples of calibration data in the published literature reveals only that Benzie and Strain obtained a satisfactory calibration using their method. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation of survival rate and extinction probability for stage-structured populations with overlapping life stages

The development of methods providing reliable estimates of demographic parameters (e. g., survival rates, fecundity) for wild populations is essential to better understand the ecology and conservation requirements of individual species. A number of methods exist for estimating the demographics of stage-structured populations, but inherent mathematical complexity often limits their uptake by conservation practitioners. Estimating survival rates for pond-breeding amphibians is further complicated by their complex migratory and reproductive behaviours, often resulting in nonobservable states and successive cohorts of eggs and tadpoles. Here we used comprehensive data on 11 distinct breeding toad populations (Bufo calamita) to clarify and assess the suitability of a relatively simple method [the Kiritani-Nakasuji-Manly (KNM) method] to estimate the survival rates of stage-structured populations with overlapping life stages. The study shows that the KNM method is robust and provides realistic estimates of amphibian egg and larval survival rates for species in which breeding can occur as a single pulse or over a period of several weeks. The study also provides estimates of fecundity for seven distinct toad populations and indicates that it is essential to use reliable estimates of fecundity to limit the risk of under- or overestimating the survival rates when using the KNM method. Survival and fecundity rates for B. calamita populations were then used to define population matrices and make a limited exploration of their growth and viability. The findings of the study recently led to the implementation of practical conservation measures at the sites where populations were most vulnerable to extinction. © 2010 The Society of Population Ecology and Springer.

The Type Ia supernova 2004s, a clone of SN 2001el, and the optimal photometric bands for extinction estimation

We present optical (UBVRI) and near-IR (YJHK) photometry of the normal Type Ia supernova (SN) 2004S. We also present eight optical spectra and one near-IR spectrum of SN 2004S. The light curves and spectra are nearly identical to those of SN 2001el. This is the first time we have seen optical and IR light curves of two Type Ia SNe match so closely. Within the one parameter family of light curves for normal Type Ia SNe, that two objects should have such similar light curves implies that they had identical intrinsic colors and produced similar amounts of Ni-56. From the similarities of the light-curve shapes we obtain a set of extinctions as a function of wavelength that allows a simultaneous solution for the distance modulus difference of the two objects, the difference of the host galaxy extinctions, and RV. Since SN 2001el had roughly an order of magnitude more host galaxy extinction than SN 2004S, the value of R-V = 2.15(-0.22)(+0.24) pertains primarily to dust in the host galaxy of SN 2001el. We have also shown via Monte Carlo simulations that adding rest-frame J-band photometry to the complement of BVRI photometry of Type Ia SNe decreases the uncertainty in the distance modulus by a factor of 2.7. A combination of rest-frame optical and near-IR photometry clearly gives more accurate distances than using rest-frame optical photometry alone.

Diversity, extinction, and threat status in Lagomorphs

A quarter of all lagomorphs (pikas, rabbits, hares and jackrabbits) are threatened with extinction, including several genera that contain only one species. The number of species in a genus correlates with extinction risk in lagomorphs, but not in other mammal groups, and this is concerning because the non-random extinction of small clades disproportionately threatens genetic diversity and phylogenetic history. Here, we use phylogenetic analyses to explore the properties of the lagomorph phylogeny and test if variation in evolution, biogeography and ecology between taxa explains current patterns of diversity and extinction risk. Threat status was not related to body size (and, by inference, its biological correlates), and there was no phylogenetic signal in extinction risk. We show that the lagomorph phylogeny has a similar clade-size distribution to other mammals, and found that genus size was unrelated to present climate, topography, or geographic range size. Extinction risk was greater in areas of higher human population density and negatively correlated with anthropogenically modified habitat. Consistent with this, habitat generalists were less likely to be threatened. Our models did not predict threat status accurately for taxa that experience region-specific threats. We suggest that pressure from human populations is so severe and widespread that it overrides ecological, biological, and geographic variation in extant lagomorphs.

Invasive alien species disrupt spatial and temporal ecology and threaten extinction in an insular, small mammal community

The impact of invasive bank vole (Myodes glareolus) and greater white-toothed shrew (Crocidura russula) on indigenous Irish small mammals, varies with season and habitat. We caught bank voles in deciduous woodland, young coniferous plantations and open habitats such as rank grass. The greater white-toothed shrew was absent from deciduous woods and plantations but did use open habitats with low level cover in addition to field margins. Numbers of both invasive species in field margins during summer were higher than in the previous spring. The indigenous wood mouse (Apodemus sylvaticus) and pygmy shrew (Sorex minutus), differed in degrees of negative response to invasive species. Wood mice with bank voles in hedgerows had reduced recruitment and lower peak abundance. This effect was less extreme where both invasive species were present. Wood mice numbers along field margins and open habitats were significantly depressed by the presence of the bank vole with no such effect in deciduous woodland or coniferous plantations. Summer recruitment in pygmy shrews was reduced in hedgerows with bank voles. Where greater white-toothed shrew was present, the pygmy shrew was entirely absent from field margins. Species replacement due to invasive small mammals is occurring in their major habitat i.e. field margins and open habitats where there is good ground cover. Pygmy shrew will probably disappear from these habitats throughout Ireland. Wood mice and possibly pygmy shrew may survive in deciduous woodland and conifer plantations. Mitigation of impacts of invasive species should include expansion of woodland in which native species can survive.

Ecological communities are vulnerable to realistic extinction sequences

Loss of species will directly change the structure and potentially the dynamics of ecological communities, which in turn may lead to additional species loss (secondary extinctions) due to direct and/or indirect effects (e.g. loss of resources or altered population dynamics). Furthermore, the vulnerability of food webs to repeated species loss is expected to be affected by food web topology, species interactions, as well as the order in which species go extinct. Species traits such as body size, abundance and connectivity might determine a species' vulnerability to extinction and, thus, the order in which species go primarily extinct. Yet, the sequence of primary extinctions, and their effects on the vulnerability of food webs to secondary extinctions, when species abundances are allowed to respond dynamically, has only recently become the focus of attention. Here, we analyse and compare topological and dynamical robustness to secondary extinctions of model food webs, in the face of 34 extinction sequences based on species traits. Although secondary extinctions are frequent in the dynamical approach and rare in the topological approach, topological and dynamical robustness tends to be correlated for many bottom-up directed, but not for top-down directed deletion sequences. Furthermore, removing species based on traits that are strongly positively correlated to the trophic position of species (such as large body size, low abundance, high net effect) is, under the dynamical approach, found to be as destructive as removing primary producers. Such top-down oriented removal of species are often considered to correspond to realistic extinction scenarios, but earlier studies, based on topological approaches, have found such extinction sequences to have only moderate effects on the remaining community. Thus, our result suggests that the structure of ecological communities, and therefore the integrity of important ecosystem processes could be more vulnerable to realistic extinction sequences than previously believed.

The extinction of Neanderthals and the emergence of the Upper Paleolithic in Portugal

Este trabalho foi apresentado no âmbito de Provas de Agregação na área de Arqueologia. Estas provas académicas, constituídas por 3 fases, são de carácter público. Para cada fase existe um arguente, sendo as fases, respectivamente, a discussão do currículo do candidato, a análise de um relatório de uma disciplina do ensino universitário e uma lição-síntese, seguida de discussão. Esta última prova consiste numa apresentação de uma hora de um tema à escolha e, como parte constituinte das Provas de Agregação, pode ser pensada de duas formas essencialmente opostas: uma de entre as várias lições do programa da disciplina apresentado no relatório acima mencionado, fazendo por isso a descrição de uma qualquer parte do conteúdo desse mesmo programa; ou, pelo contrário, respeitar o título da prova e fazer-se uma verdadeira lição síntese, de carácter inédito.