Extinction risk from climate change
Data(s) |
08/02/2004
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Resumo |
Climate change over the past ,30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species1,2 and has been implicated in one species-level extinction3. Using projections of species’ distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth’s terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a powerlaw relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15–37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be ‘committed to extinction’. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (,18%) than mid-range (,24%) and maximum change (,35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse |
Formato |
application/pdf |
Identificador |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature02121 http://pure.qub.ac.uk/ws/files/733227/Thomas&Cameron_Extinctions_Cover&Article_Nature_2004.pdf http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=1542329839&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
Idioma(s) |
eng |
Direitos |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
Fonte |
Thomas , C D , Cameron , A , Green , R E , Bakkenes , B , Beaumont , L J , Collingham , Y C , Erasmus , B F N , Ferriera De Siqueira , M , Grainger , A , Hannah , L , Hughes , L , Huntley , B , Van Jaarsveld , A S , Midgley , G F , Miles , L , Ortega-Huerta , M A , Peterson , A T , Phillips , O L & Williams , S E 2004 , ' Extinction risk from climate change ' Nature , vol 427 , no. 6970 , pp. 145-148 . DOI: 10.1038/nature02121 |
Palavras-Chave | #/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1000 #General |
Tipo |
article |