How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

Are combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility statistically superior?

Forecasting volatility has received a great deal of research attention, with the relative performances of econometric model based and option implied volatility forecasts often being considered. While many studies find that implied volatility is the pre-ferred approach, a number of issues remain unresolved, including the relative merit of combining forecasts and whether the relative performances of various forecasts are statistically different. By utilising recent econometric advances, this paper considers whether combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility are statistically superior to a wide range of model based forecasts and implied volatility. It is found that a combination of model based forecasts is the dominant approach, indicating that the implied volatility cannot simply be viewed as a combination of various model based forecasts. Therefore, while often viewed as a superior volatility forecast, the implied volatility is in fact an inferior forecast of S&P 500 volatility relative to model-based forecasts.

The jump component of S&P 500 volatility and the VIX index

Much research has investigated the differences between option implied volatilities and econometric model-based forecasts. Implied volatility is a market determined forecast, in contrast to model-based forecasts that employ some degree of smoothing of past volatility to generate forecasts. Implied volatility has the potential to reflect information that a model-based forecast could not. This paper considers two issues relating to the informational content of the S&P 500 VIX implied volatility index. First, whether it subsumes information on how historical jump activity contributed to the price volatility, followed by whether the VIX reflects any incremental information pertaining to future jump activity relative to model-based forecasts. It is found that the VIX index both subsumes information relating to past jump contributions to total volatility and reflects incremental information pertaining to future jump activity. This issue has not been examined previously and expands our understanding of how option markets form their volatility forecasts.

Graduate research capabilities : a new agenda for research supervisors

There has been a conversation about university graduate employability within the Higher Education literature for some time (Cryer, 1997; Barrie, 2004, 2006, 2007; Murray, 2000; McAlpine, 2005). Within this, and often under the banner of questioning the relevance of the PhD (Murray, 2000), there have been discussions about the employability of research postgraduates. Both the broad discussion of graduate employment and the specific discussion of research degree graduate employment have produced an agenda of graduate research capabilities. Traditionally, assisting research higher degree (RHD) students with their career development has not been an articulated part of the research supervision process. However, the graduate research capabilities agenda has added a new element to the practices of research supervision, in that it brings with it a mandate for research graduates to be aware of the range of capabilities they have acquired through their research degree candidature and how these apply in the workforce. Additionally, there is an emphasis on preparing students for varied career paths rather than a traditional academic route (e.g., in industry or government). Supervisors have a vital role to play in assisting students with these important career development tasks. In this practice application brief we report on a strategy recently used at Queensland University of Technology (QUT) to assist supervisors understand their role in a student’s career development.

meso-Porphyrinylphosphine Oxides: Mono- and Bidentate Ligands for Supramolecular Chemistry and the Crystal Structures of Monomeric [10,20-Diphenylporphyrinatonickel(II)-5,15-diyl]-bis-[P(O)Ph2] and Polymeric Self-Coordinated ([10,20-Diphenylporphyrinatozinc(II)-5,15-diyl]-bis-[P(O)Ph2])

A series of porphyrins substituted in one or two meso-positions by diphenylphosphine oxide groups has been prepared by the palladium catalysed reaction of diphenylphosphine or its oxide with the corresponding bromoporphyrins. Compounds {MDPP-[P(O)Ph2]n} (M = H2, Ni, Zn; H2DPP = 5,15-diphenylporphyrin; n = 1, 2) were isolated in yields of 60-95%. The reaction is believed to proceed via the conventional oxidative addition, phosphination and reductive elimination steps, as the stoichiometric reaction of η1-palladio(II) porphyrin [PdBr(H2DPP)(dppe)] (H2DPP = 5,15-diphenylporphyrin; dppe = 1,2-bis(diphenylphosphino)ethane) with diphenylphosphine oxide also results in the desired mono-porphyrinylphosphine oxide [H2DPP-P(O)Ph2]. Attempts to isolate the tertiary phosphines failed due to their extreme air-sensitivity. Variable temperature 1H NMR studies of [H2DPP-P(O)Ph2] revealed an intrinsic lack of symmetry, while fluorescence spectroscopy showed that the phosphine oxide group does not behave as a "heavy atom" quencher. The electron withdrawing effect of the phosphine oxide group was confirmed by voltammetry. The ligands were characterised by multinuclear NMR and UV-visible spectroscopy as well as mass spectrometry. Single crystal X-ray crystallography showed that the bis(phosphine oxide) nickel(II) complex {[NiDPP-[P(O)Ph2]2} is monomeric in the solid state, with a ruffled porphyrin core and the two P=O fragments on the same side of the average plane of the molecule. On the other hand, the corresponding zinc(II) complex formed infinite chains through coordination of one Ph2PO substituent to the neighbouring zinc porphyrin through an almost linear P=O---Zn unit, leaving the other Ph2PO group facing into a parallel channel filled with disordered water molecules. These new phosphine oxides are attractive ligands for supramolecular porphyrin chemistry.

Cyberbullying : legal implications for schools

Most educators are now aware that cyberbullying is bullying through the use of technology. This new form of bullying makes use of the diverse range of technology now available including email, texting, chat rooms, mobile phones, mobile phone cameras, i-pods and websites. Cyberbullying shares many of the same attributes as face-to-face bullying such as a power imbalance which causes a sense of helplessness on the part of the victim, repetition and the intent to hurt.

Doing justice : young people’s representations of the Murray-Darling Basin

The business of helping children to grow up as ‘custodians’, or ‘future managers’ of the Murray-Darling Basin is not simple, and that single sources of information and ways of seeing the environment are not enough. Children (and adults) need to be able to relate individually, emotionally and aesthetically to their places if they are to learn to love them. However, they also need access to a variety of ways of thinking and seeing those same places if they are to be able to take action to sustain them – action that inevitably involves forms of communication with their fellow citizens. This chapter documents the writing and art program Special Forever, with its focus on communications, as an important intervention into promoting eco-social sustainability.

Mechanism of p-nitrophenol adsorption from aqueous solution by HDTMA+-pillared montmorillonite : implications for water purification

HDTMA+ pillared montmorillonites were obtained by pillaring different amounts of the surfactant hexadecyltrimethylammonium bromide (HDTMAB) into sodium montmorillonite (Na-Mt) in an aqueous solution. The optimum conditions and batch kinetics of sorption of p-nitrophenol from aqueous solutions were reported. The solu-tion pH had a very important effect on the sorption of p-nitrophenol. The maximum p-nitrophenol absorption/adsorption occurs when solution pH (7.15~7.35) is approx-imately equal to the pKa (7.16) of the p-nitrophenol ion deprotonation reaction. X-ray diffraction analysis showed that surfactant cations had been pillared into the interlayer and the p-nitrophenol affected the arrangement of surfactant. With the increased con-centration of surfactant cations, the arrangement of HDTMA+ within the clay inter-layer changes and the sorption of p-nitrophenol increases. HDTMA+ pillared mont-morillonites are more effective than Na-Mt for the adsorption of p-nitrophenol from aqueous solutions. The Langmuir, Freundlich and dual-mode sorption were tested to fit the sorption isotherms.

Characterisation of organoclays and adsorption of p-nitrophenol : environmental application

Organoclays were synthesised through ion exchange of a single surfactant for sodium ions, and characterised by a range of method including X-ray diffraction (XRD), BET, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR), and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The change in surface properties of montmorillonite and organoclays intercalated with the surfactant, tetradecyltrimethylammonium bromide (TDTMA) were determined using XRD through the change in basal spacing and the expansion occurred by the adsorbed p-nitrophenol. The changes of interlayer spacing were observed in TEM. In addition, the surface measurement such as specific surface area and pore volume was measured and calculated using BET method, this suggested the loaded surfactant is highly important to determine the sorption mechanism onto organoclays. The collected results of XPS provided the chemical composition of montmorillonite and organoclays, and the high-resolution XPS spectra offered the chemical states of prepared organoclays with binding energy. Using TGA and FT-IR, the confirmation of intercalated surfactant was investigated. The collected data from various techniques enable an understanding of the changes in structure and surface properties. This study is of importance to provide mechanisms for the adsorption of organic molecules, especially in contaminated environmental sites and polluted waters.