Construction of stability multipliers for non-linear feedback systems

This paper is concerned with the analysis of the absolute stability of a non-linear autonomous system which consists of a single non-linearity belonging to a particular class, in an otherwise linear feedback loop. It is motivated from the earlier Popovlike frequency-domain criteria using the ' multiplier ' eoncept and involves the construction of ' stability multipliers' with prescribed phase characteristics. A few computer-based methods by which this problem can be solved are indicated and it is shown that this constitutes a stop-by-step procedure for testing the stability properties of a given system.

Testing against changing correlation

A test for time-varying correlation is developed within the framework of a dynamic conditional score (DCS) model for both Gaussian and Student t-distributions. The test may be interpreted as a Lagrange multiplier test and modified to allow for the estimation of models for time-varying volatility in the individual series. Unlike standard moment-based tests, the score-based test statistic includes information on the level of correlation under the null hypothesis and local power arguments indicate the benefits of doing so. A simulation study shows that the performance of the score-based test is strong relative to existing tests across a range of data generating processes. An application to the Hong Kong and South Korean equity markets shows that the new test reveals changes in correlation that are not detected by the standard moment-based test.

Quadrature generation techniques for frequency multiplication based oscillators

Frequency multiplication (FM) can be used to design low power frequency synthesizers. This is achieved by running the VCO at a much reduced frequency, while employing a power efficient frequency multiplier, and also thereby eliminating the first few dividers. Quadrature signals can be generated by frequency- multiplying low frequency I/Q signals, however this also multiplies the quadrature error of these signals. Another way is generating additional edges from the low-frequency oscillator (LFO) and develop a quadrature FM. This makes the I-Q precision heavily dependent on process mismatches in the ring oscillator. In this paper we examine the use of fewer edges from LFO and a single stage polyphase filter to generate approximate quadrature signals, which is then followed by an injection-locked quadrature VCO to generate high- precision I/Q signals. Simulation comparisons with the existing approach shows that the proposed method offers very good phase accuracy of 0.5deg with only a modest increase in power dissipation for 2.4 GHz IEEE 802.15.4 standard using UMC 0.13 mum RFCMOS technology.

Process variability-aware statistical hybrid modeling of dynamic power dissipation in 65 nm CMOS designs

A generalized technique is proposed for modeling the effects of process variations on dynamic power by directly relating the variations in process parameters to variations in dynamic power of a digital circuit. The dynamic power of a 2-input NAND gate is characterized by mixed-mode simulations, to be used as a library element for 65mn gate length technology. The proposed methodology is demonstrated with a multiplier circuit built using the NAND gate library, by characterizing its dynamic power through Monte Carlo analysis. The statistical technique of Response. Surface Methodology (RSM) using Design of Experiments (DOE) and Least Squares Method (LSM), are employed to generate a "hybrid model" for gate power to account for simultaneous variations in multiple process parameters. We demonstrate that our hybrid model based statistical design approach results in considerable savings in the power budget of low power CMOS designs with an error of less than 1%, with significant reductions in uncertainty by atleast 6X on a normalized basis, against worst case design.

A simple analog controller for single-phase half-bridge rectifier and its application to transformerless UPS

A simple, low-cost, constant frequency, analog controller is proposed for the front-end half-bridge rectifier of a single-phase transformerless UPS system to maintain near unity power factor at the input and zero dc-offset voltage at the output. The controller generates the required gating pulses by comparing the input current with a periodic, bipolar, linear carrier without sensing the input voltage. Two voltage controllers and a single integrator with reset are used to generate the required carrier. All the necessary control operations can be performed without using any PLL, multiplier and/or divider. The controller can be fabricated as a single integrated circuit. The control concept is validated through simulation and also experimentally on an 800W half-bridge rectifier. Experimental results are presented for ac-dc application, and also for ac-dc-ac UPS application with both sinusoidal and nonlinear loads. The simulation and experimental results agree well.

Diagnostic Tests Based on Quantile Residuals for Nonlinear Time Series Models

This thesis studies quantile residuals and uses different methodologies to develop test statistics that are applicable in evaluating linear and nonlinear time series models based on continuous distributions. Models based on mixtures of distributions are of special interest because it turns out that for those models traditional residuals, often referred to as Pearson's residuals, are not appropriate. As such models have become more and more popular in practice, especially with financial time series data there is a need for reliable diagnostic tools that can be used to evaluate them. The aim of the thesis is to show how such diagnostic tools can be obtained and used in model evaluation. The quantile residuals considered here are defined in such a way that, when the model is correctly specified and its parameters are consistently estimated, they are approximately independent with standard normal distribution. All the tests derived in the thesis are pure significance type tests and are theoretically sound in that they properly take the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation into account. -- In Chapter 2 a general framework based on the likelihood function and smooth functions of univariate quantile residuals is derived that can be used to obtain misspecification tests for various purposes. Three easy-to-use tests aimed at detecting non-normality, autocorrelation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in quantile residuals are formulated. It also turns out that these tests can be interpreted as Lagrange Multiplier or score tests so that they are asymptotically optimal against local alternatives. Chapter 3 extends the concept of quantile residuals to multivariate models. The framework of Chapter 2 is generalized and tests aimed at detecting non-normality, serial correlation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in multivariate quantile residuals are derived based on it. Score test interpretations are obtained for the serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity tests and in a rather restricted special case for the normality test. In Chapter 4 the tests are constructed using the empirical distribution function of quantile residuals. So-called Khmaladze s martingale transformation is applied in order to eliminate the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation. Various test statistics are considered so that critical bounds for histogram type plots as well as Quantile-Quantile and Probability-Probability type plots of quantile residuals are obtained. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 contain simulations and empirical examples which illustrate the finite sample size and power properties of the derived tests and also how the tests and related graphical tools based on residuals are applied in practice.

Studies on Binary Time Series Models with Applications to Empirical Macroeconomics and Finance

This thesis studies binary time series models and their applications in empirical macroeconomics and finance. In addition to previously suggested models, new dynamic extensions are proposed to the static probit model commonly used in the previous literature. In particular, we are interested in probit models with an autoregressive model structure. In Chapter 2, the main objective is to compare the predictive performance of the static and dynamic probit models in forecasting the U.S. and German business cycle recession periods. Financial variables, such as interest rates and stock market returns, are used as predictive variables. The empirical results suggest that the recession periods are predictable and dynamic probit models, especially models with the autoregressive structure, outperform the static model. Chapter 3 proposes a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for the usefulness of the autoregressive structure of the probit model. The finite sample properties of the LM test are considered with simulation experiments. Results indicate that the two alternative LM test statistics have reasonable size and power in large samples. In small samples, a parametric bootstrap method is suggested to obtain approximately correct size. In Chapter 4, the predictive power of dynamic probit models in predicting the direction of stock market returns are examined. The novel idea is to use recession forecast (see Chapter 2) as a predictor of the stock return sign. The evidence suggests that the signs of the U.S. excess stock returns over the risk-free return are predictable both in and out of sample. The new "error correction" probit model yields the best forecasts and it also outperforms other predictive models, such as ARMAX models, in terms of statistical and economic goodness-of-fit measures. Chapter 5 generalizes the analysis of univariate models considered in Chapters 2 4 to the case of a bivariate model. A new bivariate autoregressive probit model is applied to predict the current state of the U.S. business cycle and growth rate cycle periods. Evidence of predictability of both cycle indicators is obtained and the bivariate model is found to outperform the univariate models in terms of predictive power.

Stability of systems with power-law non-linearities

It is shown that a sufficient condition for the asymptotic stability-in-the-large of an autonomous system containing a linear part with transfer function G(jω) and a non-linearity belonging to a class of power-law non-linearities with slope restriction [0, K] in cascade in a negative feedback loop is ReZ(jω)[G(jω) + 1 K] ≥ 0 for all ω where the multiplier is given by, Z(jω) = 1 + αjω + Y(jω) - Y(-jω) with a real, y(t) = 0 for t < 0 and ∫ 0 ∞ |y(t)|dt < 1 2c2, c2 being a constant associated with the class of non-linearity. Any allowable multiplier can be converted to the above form and this form leads to lesser restrictions on the parameters in many cases. Criteria for the case of odd monotonic non-linearities and of linear gains are obtained as limiting cases of the criterion developed. A striking feature of the present result is that in the linear case it reduces to the necessary and sufficient conditions corresponding to the Nyquist criterion. An inequality of the type |R(T) - R(- T)| ≤ 2c2R(0) where R(T) is the input-output cross-correlation function of the non-linearity, is used in deriving the results.

Power Optimal Network-on-Chip Interconnect Design

A large part of today's multi-core chips is interconnect. Increasing communication complexity has made essential new strategies for interconnects, such as Network on Chip. Power dissipation in interconnects has become a substantial part of the total power dissipation. Techniques to reduce interconnect power have thus become a necessity. In this paper, we present a design methodology that gives values of bus width for interconnect links, frequency of operation for routers, in Network on Chip scenario that satisfy required throughput and dissipate minimal switching power. We develop closed form analytical expressions for the power dissipation, with bus width and frequency as variables and then use Lagrange multiplier method to arrive at the optimal values. We present a 4 port router in 90 nm technology library as case study. The results obtained from analysis are discussed.

Improved Conditions For L2-Stability Of Nonstationary Feedback-Systems

Concerning the L2-stability of feedback systems containing a linear time-varying operator, some of the stringent restrictions imposed on the multiplier as well as the linear part of the system, in the criteria presented earlier, are relaxed.

Screening Cycles

We demonstrate how endogenous information acquisition in credit markets creates lending cycles when competing banks undertake their screening decisions in an uncoordinated way, thereby highlighting the role of intertemporal screening externalities induced by lending market competition as a structural source of instability. We show that uncoordinated screening behavior of competing banks may be not only the source of an important financial multiplier, but also an independent source of fluctuations inducing business cycles. The screening cycle mechanism is robust to generalizations along many dimensions such as the lending market structure, the lending rate determination and the imperfections in the screening technology.

Distributed nonlinear optimization algorithms for general network problems

There are a number of large networks which occur in many problems dealing with the flow of power, communication signals, water, gas, transportable goods, etc. Both design and planning of these networks involve optimization problems. The first part of this paper introduces the common characteristics of a nonlinear network (the network may be linear, the objective function may be non linear, or both may be nonlinear). The second part develops a mathematical model trying to put together some important constraints based on the abstraction for a general network. The third part deals with solution procedures; it converts the network to a matrix based system of equations, gives the characteristics of the matrix and suggests two solution procedures, one of them being a new one. The fourth part handles spatially distributed networks and evolves a number of decomposition techniques so that we can solve the problem with the help of a distributed computer system. Algorithms for parallel processors and spatially distributed systems have been described.There are a number of common features that pertain to networks. A network consists of a set of nodes and arcs. In addition at every node, there is a possibility of an input (like power, water, message, goods etc) or an output or none. Normally, the network equations describe the flows amoungst nodes through the arcs. These network equations couple variables associated with nodes. Invariably, variables pertaining to arcs are constants; the result required will be flows through the arcs. To solve the normal base problem, we are given input flows at nodes, output flows at nodes and certain physical constraints on other variables at nodes and we should find out the flows through the network (variables at nodes will be referred to as across variables).The optimization problem involves in selecting inputs at nodes so as to optimise an objective function; the objective may be a cost function based on the inputs to be minimised or a loss function or an efficiency function. The above mathematical model can be solved using Lagrange Multiplier technique since the equalities are strong compared to inequalities. The Lagrange multiplier technique divides the solution procedure into two stages per iteration. Stage one calculates the problem variables % and stage two the multipliers lambda. It is shown that the Jacobian matrix used in stage one (for solving a nonlinear system of necessary conditions) occurs in the stage two also.A second solution procedure has also been imbedded into the first one. This is called total residue approach. It changes the equality constraints so that we can get faster convergence of the iterations.Both solution procedures are found to coverge in 3 to 7 iterations for a sample network.The availability of distributed computer systems — both LAN and WAN — suggest the need for algorithms to solve the optimization problems. Two types of algorithms have been proposed — one based on the physics of the network and the other on the property of the Jacobian matrix. Three algorithms have been deviced, one of them for the local area case. These algorithms are called as regional distributed algorithm, hierarchical regional distributed algorithm (both using the physics properties of the network), and locally distributed algorithm (a multiprocessor based approach with a local area network configuration). The approach used was to define an algorithm that is faster and uses minimum communications. These algorithms are found to converge at the same rate as the non distributed (unitary) case.

Stochastic Approximation Algorithms for Constrained Optimization via Simulation

We develop four algorithms for simulation-based optimization under multiple inequality constraints. Both the cost and the constraint functions are considered to be long-run averages of certain state-dependent single-stage functions. We pose the problem in the simulation optimization framework by using the Lagrange multiplier method. Two of our algorithms estimate only the gradient of the Lagrangian, while the other two estimate both the gradient and the Hessian of it. In the process, we also develop various new estimators for the gradient and Hessian. All our algorithms use two simulations each. Two of these algorithms are based on the smoothed functional (SF) technique, while the other two are based on the simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) method. We prove the convergence of our algorithms and show numerical experiments on a setting involving an open Jackson network. The Newton-based SF algorithm is seen to show the best overall performance.

An actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for discounted cost constrained Markov decision processes

We develop in this article the first actor-critic reinforcement learning algorithm with function approximation for a problem of control under multiple inequality constraints. We consider the infinite horizon discounted cost framework in which both the objective and the constraint functions are suitable expected policy-dependent discounted sums of certain sample path functions. We apply the Lagrange multiplier method to handle the inequality constraints. Our algorithm makes use of multi-timescale stochastic approximation and incorporates a temporal difference (TD) critic and an actor that makes a gradient search in the space of policy parameters using efficient simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) gradient estimates. We prove the asymptotic almost sure convergence of our algorithm to a locally optimal policy. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling of the Effects of Process Variations on Circuit Delay at 65nm

A novel methodology for modeling the effects of process variations on circuit delay performance is proposed by relating the variations in process parameters to variations in delay metric of a complex digital circuit. The delay of a 2-input NAND gate with 65nm gate length transistors is extensively characterized by mixed-mode simulations which is then used as a library element. The variation in saturation current Ionat the device level, and the variation in rising/falling edge stage delay for the NAND gate at the circuit level, are taken as performance metrics. A 4-bit x 4-bit Wallace tree multiplier circuit is used as a representative combinational circuit to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The variation in the multiplier delay is characterized, to obtain delay distributions, by an extensive Monte Carlo analysis. An analytical model based on CV/I metric is proposed, to extend this methodology for a generic technology library with a variety of library elements.