Estimation of optimal gravity wave parameters for climate models using data assimilation

There is a current need to constrain the parameters of gravity wave drag (GWD) schemes in climate models using observational information instead of tuning them subjectively. In this work, an inverse technique is developed using data assimilation principles to estimate gravity wave parameters. Because mostGWDschemes assume instantaneous vertical propagation of gravity waves within a column, observations in a single column can be used to formulate a one-dimensional assimilation problem to estimate the unknown parameters. We define a cost function that measures the differences between the unresolved drag inferred from observations (referred to here as the ‘observed’ GWD) and the GWD calculated with a parametrisation scheme. The geometry of the cost function presents some difficulties, including multiple minima and ill-conditioning because of the non-independence of the gravity wave parameters. To overcome these difficulties we propose a genetic algorithm to minimize the cost function, which provides a robust parameter estimation over a broad range of prescribed ‘true’ parameters. When real experiments using an independent estimate of the ‘observed’ GWD are performed, physically unrealistic values of the parameters can result due to the non-independence of the parameters. However, by constraining one of the parameters to lie within a physically realistic range, this degeneracy is broken and the other parameters are also found to lie within physically realistic ranges. This argues for the essential physical self-consistency of the gravity wave scheme. A much better fit to the observed GWD at high latitudes is obtained when the parameters are allowed to vary with latitude. However, a close fit can be obtained either in the upper or the lower part of the profiles, but not in both at the same time. This result is a consequence of assuming an isotropic launch spectrum. The changes of sign in theGWDfound in the tropical lower stratosphere, which are associated with part of the quasi-biennial oscillation forcing, cannot be captured by the parametrisation with optimal parameters.

Polynomial-based noise variance estimation for MIMO-SCBT systems

In this paper, we present a polynomial-based noise variance estimator for multiple-input multiple-output single-carrier block transmission (MIMO-SCBT) systems. It is shown that the optimal pilots for noise variance estimation satisfy the same condition as that for channel estimation. Theoretical analysis indicates that the proposed estimator is statistically more efficient than the conventional sum of squared residuals (SSR) based estimator. Furthermore, we obtain an efficient implementation of the estimator by exploiting its special structure. Numerical results confirm our theoretical analysis.

A critical revision of the estimation of the latent heat flux from two-wavelength scintillometry

Simultaneous scintillometer measurements at multiple wavelengths (pairing visible or infrared with millimetre or radio waves) have the potential to provide estimates of path-averaged surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat. Traditionally, the equations to deduce fluxes from measurements of the refractive index structure parameter at the two wavelengths have been formulated in terms of absolute humidity. Here, it is shown that formulation in terms of specific humidity has several advantages. Specific humidity satisfies the requirement for a conserved variable in similarity theory and inherently accounts for density effects misapportioned through the use of absolute humidity. The validity and interpretation of both formulations are assessed and the analogy with open-path infrared gas analyser density corrections is discussed. Original derivations using absolute humidity to represent the influence of water vapour are shown to misrepresent the latent heat flux. The errors in the flux, which depend on the Bowen ratio (larger for drier conditions), may be of the order of 10%. The sensible heat flux is shown to remain unchanged. It is also verified that use of a single scintillometer at optical wavelengths is essentially unaffected by these new formulations. Where it may not be possible to reprocess two-wavelength results, a density correction to the latent heat flux is proposed for scintillometry, which can be applied retrospectively to reduce the error.

Simple M-factor algorithm for improved estimation of the basic maximum usable frequency of radio waves reflected from the ionospheric F-region

The equations of Milsom are evaluated, giving the ground range and group delay of radio waves propagated via the horizontally stratified model ionosphere proposed by Bradley and Dudeney. Expressions for the ground range which allow for the effects of the underlying E- and F1-regions are used to evaluate the basic maximum usable frequency or M-factors for single F-layer hops. An algorithm for the rapid calculation of the M-factor at a given range is developed, and shown to be accurate to within 5%. The results reveal that the M(3000)F2-factor scaled from vertical-incidence ionograms using the standard URSI procedure can be up to 7.5% in error. A simple addition to the algorithm effects a correction to ionogram values to make these accurate to 0.5%.

Estimation after subpopulation selection in adaptive seamless trials

During the development of new therapies, it is not uncommon to test whether a new treatment works better than the existing treatment for all patients who suffer from a condition (full population) or for a subset of the full population (subpopulation). One approach that may be used for this objective is to have two separate trials, where in the first trial, data are collected to determine if the new treatment benefits the full population or the subpopulation. The second trial is a confirmatory trial to test the new treatment in the population selected in the first trial. In this paper, we consider the more efficient two-stage adaptive seamless designs (ASDs), where in stage 1, data are collected to select the population to test in stage 2. In stage 2, additional data are collected to perform confirmatory analysis for the selected population. Unlike the approach that uses two separate trials, for ASDs, stage 1 data are also used in the confirmatory analysis. Although ASDs are efficient, using stage 1 data both for selection and confirmatory analysis introduces selection bias and consequently statistical challenges in making inference. We will focus on point estimation for such trials. In this paper, we describe the extent of bias for estimators that ignore multiple hypotheses and selecting the population that is most likely to give positive trial results based on observed stage 1 data. We then derive conditionally unbiased estimators and examine their mean squared errors for different scenarios.

Designing a sampling scheme to reveal correlations between weeds and soil properties at multiple spatial scales

Weeds tend to aggregate in patches within fields and there is evidence that this is partly owing to variation in soil properties. Because the processes driving soil heterogeneity operate at different scales, the strength of the relationships between soil properties and weed density would also be expected to be scale-dependent. Quantifying these effects of scale on weed patch dynamics is essential to guide the design of discrete sampling protocols for mapping weed distribution. We have developed a general method that uses novel within-field nested sampling and residual maximum likelihood (REML) estimation to explore scale-dependent relationships between weeds and soil properties. We have validated the method using a case study of Alopecurus myosuroides in winter wheat. Using REML, we partitioned the variance and covariance into scale-specific components and estimated the correlations between the weed counts and soil properties at each scale. We used variograms to quantify the spatial structure in the data and to map variables by kriging. Our methodology successfully captured the effect of scale on a number of edaphic drivers of weed patchiness. The overall Pearson correlations between A. myosuroides and soil organic matter and clay content were weak and masked the stronger correlations at >50 m. Knowing how the variance was partitioned across the spatial scales we optimized the sampling design to focus sampling effort at those scales that contributed most to the total variance. The methods have the potential to guide patch spraying of weeds by identifying areas of the field that are vulnerable to weed establishment.

Estimation of genetic parameters for body weights, scrotal circumference, and testicular volume measured at different ages in Nellore cattle

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Bayesian inference in genetic parameter estimation of visual scores in Nellore beef-cattle

The aim of this study was to estimate the components of variance and genetic parameters for the visual scores which constitute the Morphological Evaluation System (MES), such as body structure (S), precocity (P) and musculature (M) in Nellore beef-cattle at the weaning and yearling stages, by using threshold Bayesian models. The information used for this was gleaned from visual scores of 5,407 animals evaluated at the weaning and 2,649 at the yearling stages. The genetic parameters for visual score traits were estimated through two-trait analysis, using the threshold animal model, with Bayesian statistics methodology and MTGSAM (Multiple Trait Gibbs Sampler for Animal Models) threshold software. Heritability estimates for S, P and M were 0.68, 0.65 and 0.62 (at weaning) and 0.44, 0.38 and 0.32 (at the yearling stage), respectively. Heritability estimates for S, P and M were found to be high, and so it is expected that these traits should respond favorably to direct selection. The visual scores evaluated at the weaning and yearling stages might be used in the composition of new selection indexes, as they presented sufficient genetic variability to promote genetic progress in such morphological traits.

Recurrent neural network for induction motor speed estimation in industry applications

Many electronic drivers for the induction motor control are based on sensorless technologies. The proposal of this work Is to present an alternative approach of speed estimation, from transient to steady state, using artificial neural networks. The inputs of the network are the RMS voltage, current and speed estimated of the induction motor feedback to the input with a delay of n samples. Simulation results are also presented to validate the proposed approach. © 2006 IEEE.

Using multiple abstraction levels to speedup an MPSoC virtual platform simulator

Virtual platforms are of paramount importance for design space exploration and their usage in early software development and verification is crucial. In particular, enabling accurate and fast simulation is specially useful, but such features are usually conflicting and tradeoffs have to be made. In this paper we describe how we integrated TLM communication mechanisms into a state-of-the-art, cycle-accurate, MPSoC simulation platform. More specifically, we show how we adapted ArchC fast functional instruction set simulators to the MPARM platform in order to achieve both fast simulation speed and accuracy. Our implementation led to a much faster hybrid platform, reaching speedups of up to 2.9 and 2.1x on average with negligible impact on power estimation accuracy (average 3.26% and 2.25% of standard deviation). © 2011 IEEE.

Convergence Property of the Measurement Gross Error Correction in Power System State Estimation, Using Geometrical Background

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Multiple-trait genomic evaluation for milk yield and milk quality traits using genomic and phenotypic data in buffalo in Brazil

The use of markers distributed all long the genome may increase the accuracy of the predicted additive genetic value of young animals that are candidates to be selected as reproducers. In commercial herds, due to the cost of genotyping, only some animals are genotyped and procedures, divided in two or three steps, are done in order to include these genomic data in genetic evaluation. However, genomic evaluation may be calculated using one unified step that combines phenotypic data, pedigree and genomics. The aim of the study was to compare a multiple-trait model using only pedigree information with another using pedigree and genomic data. In this study, 9,318 lactations from 3061 buffaloes were used, 384 buffaloes were genotyped using a Illumina bovine chip (Illumina Infinium (R) bovineHD BeadChip). Seven traits were analyzed milk yield (MY), fat yield (FY), protein yield (PY), lactose yield (LY), fat percentage (F%), protein percentage (P%) and somatic cell score (SCSt). Two analyses were done: one using phenotypic and pedigree information (matrix A) and in the other using a matrix based in pedigree and genomic information (one step, matrix H). The (co) variance components were estimated using multiple-trait analysis by Bayesian inference method, applying an animal model, through Gibbs sampling. The model included the fixed effects of contemporary groups (herd-year-calving season), number of milking (2 levels), and age of buffalo at calving as (co) variable (quadratic and linear effect). The additive genetic, permanent environmental, and residual effects were included as random effects in the model. The heritability estimates using matrix A were 0.25, 0.22, 0.26, 0.17, 0.37, 0.42 and 0.26 and using matrix H were 0.25, 0.24, 0.26, 0.18, 0.38, 0.46 and 0.26 for MY, FY, PY, LY, % F, % P and SCCt, respectively. The estimates of the additive genetic effect for the traits were similar in both analyses, but the accuracy were bigger using matrix H (superior to 15% for traits studied). The heritability estimates were moderated indicating genetic gain under selection. The use of genomic information in the analyses increases the accuracy. It permits a better estimation of the additive genetic value of the animals.

Nonlinear state estimation and control for chaos suppression in MEMS resonator

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A multiple time scale survival model with a cure fraction

Many recent survival studies propose modeling data with a cure fraction, i.e., data in which part of the population is not susceptible to the event of interest. This event may occur more than once for the same individual (recurrent event). We then have a scenario of recurrent event data in the presence of a cure fraction, which may appear in various areas such as oncology, finance, industries, among others. This paper proposes a multiple time scale survival model to analyze recurrent events using a cure fraction. The objective is analyzing the efficiency of certain interventions so that the studied event will not happen again in terms of covariates and censoring. All estimates were obtained using a sampling-based approach, which allows information to be input beforehand with lower computational effort. Simulations were done based on a clinical scenario in order to observe some frequentist properties of the estimation procedure in the presence of small and moderate sample sizes. An application of a well-known set of real mammary tumor data is provided.

Cytogenomic characterization of an unexpected 17.6 Mb 9p deletion associated to a 14.8 Mb 20p duplication in a dysmorphic patient with multiple congenital anomalies presenting a normal G-banding karyotype

We describe a female patient with developmental delay, dysmorphic features and multiple congenital anomalies who presented a normal G-banded karyotype at the 550-band resolution. Array and multiplex-ligation probe amplification (MLPA) techniques identified an unexpected large unbalanced genomic aberration: a 17.6 Mb deletion of 9p associated to a 14.8 Mb duplication of 20p. The deleted 9p genes, especially CER1 and FREM1, seem to be more relevant to the phenotype than the duplicated 20p genes. This study also shows the relevance of using molecular techniques to make an accurate diagnosis in patients with dysmorphic features and multiple anomalies suggestive of chromosome aberration, even if on G-banding their karyotype appears to be normal. Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) was necessary to identify a masked balanced translocation in the patient's mother, indicating the importance of associating cytogenetic and molecular techniques in clinical genetics, given the implications for patient management and genetic counseling. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.