Evaluation and improvement of empirical models of global solar irradiation: Case study northern Spain

This paper presents a new methodology to build parametric models to estimate global solar irradiation adjusted to specific on-site characteristics based on the evaluation of variable im- portance. Thus, those variables higly correlated to solar irradiation on a site are implemented in the model and therefore, different models might be proposed under different climates. This methodology is applied in a study case in La Rioja region (northern Spain). A new model is proposed and evaluated on stability and accuracy against a review of twenty-two already exist- ing parametric models based on temperatures and rainfall in seventeen meteorological stations in La Rioja. The methodology of model evaluation is based on bootstrapping, which leads to achieve a high level of confidence in model calibration and validation from short time series (in this case five years, from 2007 to 2011). The model proposed improves the estimates of the other twenty-two models with average mean absolute error (MAE) of 2.195 MJ/m2 day and average confidence interval width (95% C.I., n=100) of 0.261 MJ/m2 day. 41.65% of the daily residuals in the case of SIAR and 20.12% in that of SOS Rioja fall within the uncertainty tolerance of the pyranometers of the two networks (10% and 5%, respectively). Relative differences between measured and estimated irradiation on an annual cumulative basis are below 4.82%. Thus, the proposed model might be useful to estimate annual sums of global solar irradiation, reaching insignificant differences between measurements from pyranometers.

Remote sensing of LAI, chlorophyll and leaf nitrogen pools of crop- and grasslands in five European landscapes.

Leaf nitrogen and leaf surface area influence the exchange of gases between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, and play a significant role in the global cycles of carbon, nitrogen and water. The purpose of this study is to use field-based and satellite remote-sensing-based methods to assess leaf nitrogen pools in five diverse European agricultural landscapes located in Denmark, Scotland (United Kingdom), Poland, the Netherlands and Italy. REGFLEC (REGularized canopy reFLECtance) is an advanced image-based inverse canopy radiative transfer modelling system which has shown proficiency for regional mapping of leaf area index (LAI) and leaf chlorophyll (CHLl) using remote sensing data. In this study, high spatial resolution (10–20 m) remote sensing images acquired from the multispectral sensors aboard the SPOT (Satellite For Observation of Earth) satellites were used to assess the capability of REGFLEC for mapping spatial variations in LAI, CHLland the relation to leaf nitrogen (Nl) data in five diverse European agricultural landscapes. REGFLEC is based on physical laws and includes an automatic model parameterization scheme which makes the tool independent of field data for model calibration. In this study, REGFLEC performance was evaluated using LAI measurements and non-destructive measurements (using a SPAD meter) of leaf-scale CHLl and Nl concentrations in 93 fields representing crop- and grasslands of the five landscapes. Furthermore, empirical relationships between field measurements (LAI, CHLl and Nl and five spectral vegetation indices (the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, the Simple Ratio, the Enhanced Vegetation Index-2, the Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, and the green chlorophyll index) were used to assess field data coherence and to serve as a comparison basis for assessing REGFLEC model performance. The field measurements showed strong vertical CHLl gradient profiles in 26% of fields which affected REGFLEC performance as well as the relationships between spectral vegetation indices (SVIs) and field measurements. When the range of surface types increased, the REGFLEC results were in better agreement with field data than the empirical SVI regression models. Selecting only homogeneous canopies with uniform CHLl distributions as reference data for evaluation, REGFLEC was able to explain 69% of LAI observations (rmse = 0.76), 46% of measured canopy chlorophyll contents (rmse = 719 mg m−2) and 51% of measured canopy nitrogen contents (rmse = 2.7 g m−2). Better results were obtained for individual landscapes, except for Italy, where REGFLEC performed poorly due to a lack of dense vegetation canopies at the time of satellite recording. Presence of vegetation is needed to parameterize the REGFLEC model. Combining REGFLEC- and SVI-based model results to minimize errors for a "snap-shot" assessment of total leaf nitrogen pools in the five landscapes, results varied from 0.6 to 4.0 t km−2. Differences in leaf nitrogen pools between landscapes are attributed to seasonal variations, extents of agricultural area, species variations, and spatial variations in nutrient availability. In order to facilitate a substantial assessment of variations in Nl pools and their relation to landscape based nitrogen and carbon cycling processes, time series of satellite data are needed. The upcoming Sentinel-2 satellite mission will provide new multiple narrowband data opportunities at high spatio-temporal resolution which are expected to further improve remote sensing capabilities for mapping LAI, CHLl and Nl.

Evaluación de parámetros que influyen en el transporte de cloruros en hormigón parcialmente saturado

El deterioro del hormigón debido a la presencia del ion cloruro es causa frecuente de problemas en estructuras localizadas en ambiente marino y alta montaña. Su principal efecto consiste en la despasivación del acero de refuerzo embebido en el hormigón y su consecuente inicio de la corrosión del mismo. El ingreso del ion cloruro al interior del hormigón, está condicionado por una serie de parámetros de origen medioambiental e intrínsecos del hormigón. En función de estos parámetros el ingreso de cloruros en el hormigón puede deberse principalmente a los siguientes mecanismos: difusión y succión capilar. El estudio y evaluación de la resistencia del hormigón frente a cloruros, se ha desarrollado principalmente en condiciones saturadas del hormigón. Lo que ha significado que parámetros de importancia no sean considerados. Debido a esto, distintos procesos que suceden en estructuras reales no han sido identificados y estudiados correctamente. En este trabajo, se diseñó un programa de investigación para evaluar los parámetros que influyen en el transporte cloruros en hormigones no saturados. Para esto se diseñaron tres dosificaciones diferentes de hormigón. En la primera se empleó únicamente cemento portland, para el resto se utilizaron adiciones minerales (humo de sílice y escoria de alto horno). El empleo de adiciones se debió a que tienen un papel importante en la durabilidad de hormigones frente a cloruros. Los hormigones fueron dosificados con una relación agua/material cementício de 0,40 para el hormigón elaborado únicamente con cemento portland y 0,45 para las mezclas con adiciones. Para evaluar las propiedades de los hormigones en estado fresco y endurecido se realizaron ensayos vigentes en las normativas. Con los resultados obtenidos se determinaron parámetros de resistencia mecánica, microestructurales, resistencia al transporte de cloruros e higroscópicos. Una vez caracterizados los hormigones, se diseñó una propuesta experimental para estudiar los principales parámetros presentes en estructuras reales con presencia de cloruros. Tanto la concentración de cloruro como las condiciones ambientales se han variado teniendo como referencia las situaciones reales que podrían producirse en ambientes de alta montaña en la zona centro de España. La propuesta experimental consistió en tratar de evaluar la capacidad de los hormigones al transporte de iones en ambientes de alta montaña con presencia de sales fundentes. Para esto se establecieron 5 fases experimentales donde los principales parámetros ambientales y la presencia de iones agresivos sufrieron variaciones. Al término de cada fase se obtuvieron perfiles de penetración de cloruros en los hormigones y se evaluó la influencia de los parámetros presentes en cada fase. Los resultados experimentales se implementaron en un modelo numérico basado en la teoría de elementos finitos, desarrollado por el grupo de investigación del Departamento de Materiales de Construcción. Para esto fue necesario realizar la calibración y validación del modelo numérico para cada hormigón. El calibrado del modelo precisa de datos químicos y microestructurales de cada hormigón, tales como: capacidad de combinación de cloruros y propiedades difusivas e higroscópicas. Para la validación del modelo numérico se realizaron simulaciones de la propuesta experimental. Los resultados obtenidos se compararon con los valores experimentales. Con el objeto de poder estudiar en mayor profundidad la influencia del grado de saturación del hormigón durante la difusión de cloruros, se llevó a cabo una campaña experimental que consideró distintos grados de saturación en los hormigones. Para esto se establecieron en los hormigones cuatro grados de saturación distintos (50%, 60%, 80% y 100%, aproximadamente), posteriormente se expusieron a cloruro de sodio finamente molido. Una vez transcurrido el tiempo necesario se obtuvieron experimentalmente los perfiles de penetración de cloruros para cada grado de saturación y se calcularon los coeficientes de difusión. Los datos obtenidos durante la campaña experimental han demostrado la influencia positiva que ejercen las adiciones en las mezclas de hormigón. Sus principales ventajas son el refinamiento de la red porosa y el aumento en la capacidad de combinación de cloruros, además de mejorar sus propiedades mecánicas. La porosidad total en las mezclas no presentó grandes cambios, sin embargo, el cambio en la distribución del tamaño de poros es importante en las muestras con adiciones. En especial las fabricadas con humo de sílice. Los coeficientes de difusión y migración de cloruros para las mezclas con adiciones disminuyeron significativamente, igual que los valores de resistividad eléctrica. En los ensayos de penetración del agua bajo presión, fueron las muestras con adiciones las que mostraron las menores penetraciones. Los resultados obtenidos al final de la propuesta experimental permitieron estudiar los distintos parámetros involucrados. Se observó claramente que el proceso de difusión provoca el mayor transporte de cloruros hacia el interior del hormigón. Así mismo se comprobó que el lavado superficial y el secado de las probetas, trasladan cloruros hacia las zonas externas del hormigón. El primero debido a una baja concentración de cloruros externa, mientras que el secado provoca el movimiento de la solución de poro hacia las zonas de secado depositando cloruros en ellas. Las medidas higroscópicas permitieron determinar la existencia de dos zonas distintas en el interior del hormigón. La primera se localizó en el rango de 0-10mm, aproximadamente, en ésta se puso de manifiesto una mayor sensibilidad a los cambios experimentados en el exterior de las probetas. La segunda zona se localizó a una profundidad mayor de 10mm, aproximadamente. Se observó claramente una baja influencia de los cambios externos, siendo la difusión de cloruros el principal mecanismo de transporte presente en ella. En cuanto al estudio de la influencia del grado de saturación en la difusión de cloruros, se observó claramente una marcada diferencia entre los coeficientes de difusión de cloruro obtenidos. Para grados de saturación mayores del 80% el mecanismo de penetración de cloruros por difusión existe de forma significativa. Mientras que para valores inferiores los resultados revelaron que las vías de acceso disminuyen (poros conectado con agua) considerablemente limitando en un alto grado la penetración del agresivo. Para grados de saturación inferiores del 50% los valores del coeficiente de difusión son despreciables. The deterioration of concrete due to chloride ions is a frequent problem identified in structures located in marine and high-mountain environments. After entering the outer layer of the concrete, the chlorides tend to penetrate until they reach and then depassivate the steel bars. Subsequently, this induces the deterioration process of the reinforced concrete. This chloride penetration depends on the environmental conditions and intrinsic parameters of the concrete. Several transport mechanisms, such as diffusion, capillary suction and permeability can be present into the concrete. While recent research into the study and evaluation of concretes with chloride presence has been carried out in saturated concrete, it has not considered certain parameters that can modify this condition. Consequently, at the time of writing several processes that take place in real structures have not been identified and studied. In this work a research programme is designed to evaluate the parameters that influence chloride transport into non-saturated concrete. For this, three concrete mixes were designed by using high-early-strength Portland cement and mineral admixtures (silica fume and blast-slag furnace). The water-cement ratio was 0.40 for the concrete made solely with Portland cement and 0.45 for the concretes that used mineral admixtures as a cement replacement. A set of experimental tests were performed to evaluate the concrete properties both in fresh and hardened state. In addition, an experimental simulation was carried out under laboratory conditions in which the main objective was to assess resistance of concrete to chloride penetration under high-mountain conditions with the presence of de-icing salts. The environmental conditions and surface chloride concentration of the concrete used during the experimental simulation were chosen by considering conditions found in the high-mountain environment in central Spain. For the experimental simulation five phases were designed by varying the environmental parameters and concrete surface concentration. At the end of each phase a chloride profile was obtained with the aim of assessing the influence of the parameters on chloride transport. The experimental results were then used to calibrate and validate a numerical model based on finite element theory developed by the research team from the Construction Materials Department in a previous work. In order to carry out model calibration chemical and microstructural data for the concretes was required, such as binding capacity and the diffusive and hygroscopic properties. The experimental results were compared with the numerical simulations and provided a good fit. With the objective of studying the influence of the degree of concrete saturation on chloride diffusion, an experimental programme was designed. This entailed four saturation degrees (50%, 60%, 80% and 100%) being established in several concrete samples. The samples were then exposed to ground sodium chloride. Once the time required was achieved, the chloride profiles and diffusion coefficients were obtained for each saturation degree. The results obtained from the experimental program revealed a positive influence of the mineral admixtures on the concretes. Their effects were reflected in the pore-network refinement and the increase of chloride binding capacity, together with the improvement of the mechanical properties of the concretes. Total porosity did not reveal any notable change, though the pore-size distribution showed a significant degree of change in the concretes with mineral admixtures, specifically the samples prepared through use of silica fume. The chloride diffusion and migration coefficient, as well as the electrical resistivity values, decreased significantly in the concretes with admixtures. In the water penetration under pressure test, the concretes with admixtures presented the lowest penetration depth. The results obtained in the experimental simulation allowed study of the main parameters involved during the chloride penetration processes in non-saturated concretes in the presence of chlorides. According to the results, the diffusion process was the transport mechanism that transferred the greatest amount of chlorides into the concrete samples. In addition, a chloride movement toward external zones of the concrete, caused by the washing of concrete surface and the drying processes, was identified. The washing occurred when the concrete surface came into contact with a low-chloride concentration solution which initiated the outward movement of chloride diffusion. The drying processes corresponded to a movement of pore solution launched by water evaporation from the outer layer. Furthermore, hygroscopic measurements made in the concrete allowed two areas with distinct behavioural patterns to be identified. The first one, located in the range of approximately 0-10mm, showed a greater degree of influence regarding the changes of the external conditions. The second, situated at depths greater than 10mm, displayed a low influence of external conditions. The main process in this area was diffusion. Study of the influence of the degree of concrete saturation on chloride diffusion showed a clear difference among the chloride diffusion coefficients obtained. For degrees of concrete saturation higher than 80%, chloride penetration by diffusion tends to be significant. However, in the case of extent of saturation of lower than 80%, the results revealed that the access zone through which chlorides can penetrate decreased considerably. For degrees of concrete saturation lower than 50%, the chloride diffusion coefficients were negligible.

Using floating car data to analyse the effects of ITS measures and eco-driving

The road transportation sector is responsible for around 25% of total man-made CO2 emissions worldwide. Considerable efforts are therefore underway to reduce these emissions using several approaches, including improved vehicle technologies, traffic management and changing driving behaviour. Detailed traffic and emissions models are used extensively to assess the potential effects of these measures. However, if the input and calibration data are not sufficiently detailed there is an inherent risk that the results may be inaccurate. This article presents the use of Floating Car Data to derive useful speed and acceleration values in the process of traffic model calibration as a means of ensuring more accurate results when simulating the effects of particular measures. The data acquired includes instantaneous GPS coordinates to track and select the itineraries, and speed and engine performance extracted directly from the on-board diagnostics system. Once the data is processed, the variations in several calibration parameters can be analyzed by comparing the base case model with the measure application scenarios. Depending on the measure, the results show changes of up to 6.4% in maximum speed values, and reductions of nearly 15% in acceleration and braking levels, especially when eco-driving is applied.

Geografía del carbono en alta resolución en bosque tropical amazónico del Ecuador mediante sensores aerotransportados

La estimación de la biomasa de la vegetación terrestre en bosque tropical no sólo es un área de investigación en rápida expansión, sino también es un tema de gran interés para reducir las emisiones de carbono asociadas a la deforestación y la degradación forestal (REDD+). Las estimaciones de densidad de carbono sobre el suelo (ACD) en base a inventarios de campo y datos provenientes de sensores aerotransportados, en especial con sensores LiDAR, han conducido a un progreso sustancial en el cartografiado a gran escala de las reservas de carbono forestal. Sin embargo, estos mapas de carbono tienen incertidumbres considerables, asociadas generalmente al proceso de calibración del modelo de regresión utilizado para producir los mapas. En esta tesis se establece una metodología para la calibración y validación de un modelo general de estimación de ACD usando LiDAR en un sector del Parque Nacional Yasuní en Ecuador. En el proceso de calibración del modelo se considera el tamaño y la ubicación de las parcelas, la influencia de la topografía y la distribución espacial de la biomasa. Para el análisis de los datos se utilizan técnicas geoestadísticas en combinación con variables geomorfométricas derivadas de datos LiDAR, y se propone un esquema de muestreo estratificado por posiciones topográficas (valle, ladera y cima). La validación del modelo general para toda la zona de estudio presentó valores de RMSE = 5.81 Mg C ha-1, R2 = 0.94 y sesgo = 0.59, mientras que, al considerar las posiciones topográficas, el modelo presentó valores de RMSE = 1.67 Mg C ha-1, R2 = 0.98 y sesgo = 0.23 para el valle; RMSE = 3.13 Mg C ha-1, R2 = 0.98 y sesgo = - 0.34 para la ladera; y RMSE = 2.33 Mg C ha-1, R2 = 0.97 y sesgo = 0.74 para la cima. Los resultados obtenidos demuestran que la metodología de muestreo estratificado por posiciones topográficas propuesto, permite calibrar de manera efectiva el modelo general con las estimaciones de ACD en campo, logrando reducir el RMSE y el sesgo. Los resultados muestran el potencial de los datos LiDAR para caracterizar la estructura vertical de la vegetación en un bosque altamente diverso, permitiendo realizar estimaciones precisas de ACD, y conocer patrones espaciales continuos de la distribución de la biomasa aérea y del contenido de carbono en la zona de estudio. ABSTRACT Estimating biomass of terrestrial vegetation in tropical forest is not only a rapidly expanding research area, but also a subject of tremendous interest for reducing carbon emissions associated with deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+). The aboveground carbon density estimates (ACD) based on field inventories and airborne sensors, especially LiDAR sensors have led to a substantial progress in large-scale mapping of forest carbon stocks. However, these carbon maps have considerable uncertainties generally associated with the calibration of the regression model used to produce these maps. This thesis establishes a methodology for calibrating and validating a general ACD estimation model using LiDAR in Ecuador´s Yasuní National Park. The size and location of the plots are considered in the model calibration phase as well as the influence of topography and spatial distribution of biomass. Geostatistical analysis techniques are used in combination with geomorphometrics variables derived from LiDAR data, and then a stratified sampling scheme considering topographic positions (valley, slope and ridge) is proposed. The validation of the general model for the study area showed values of RMSE = 5.81 Mg C ha-1, R2 = 0.94 and bias = 0.59, while considering the topographical positions, the model showed values of RMSE = 1.67 Mg C ha-1, R2 = 0.98 and bias = 0.23 for the valley; RMSE = 3.13 Mg C ha-1, R2 = 0.98 and bias = - 0.34 for the slope; and RMSE = 2.33 Mg C ha-1, R2 = 0.97 and bias = 0.74 for the ridge. The results show that the stratified sampling methodology taking into account topographic positions, effectively calibrates the general model with field estimates of ACD, reducing RMSE and bias. The results show the potential of LiDAR data to characterize the vertical structure of vegetation in a highly diverse forest, allowing accurate estimates of ACD, and knowing continuous spatial patterns of biomass distribution and carbon stocks in the study area.

Análisis numérico del comportamiento vibratorio del conjunto móvil de un altavoz dinámico

En este trabajo se describe el proceso llevado a cabo para analizar numéricamente mediante el método de los elementos finitos (MEF) el comportamiento vibratorio del conjunto móvil de un altavoz dinámico de bobina con doble suspensión inferior y en ausencia de la superior. El estudio se centra en el rango de baja frecuencia. El calibrado del modelo se realiza en base a medidas experimentales de la frecuencia de resonancia y desplazamiento del diafragma. Se hace énfasis en la importancia de los factores de participación asociados a la fuerza de excitación y en los cambios que se producen en estos al introducir fuerzas no equilibradas. Así mismo, el análisis proporciona datos para decidir sobre la distancia entre suspensiones, su número óptimo de pliegues y la ubicación de las trencillas, siendo estos parámetros de gran interés en el diseño de este tipo de altavoces.

Stress Inversion Using LiDAR Tunnel Deformation Measurements

Far-field stresses are those present in a volume of rock prior to excavations being created. Estimates of the orientation and magnitude of far-field stresses, often used in mine design, are generally obtained by single-point measurements of stress, or large-scale, regional trends. Point measurements can be a poor representation of far-field stresses as a result of excavation-induced stresses and geological structures. For these reasons, far-field stress estimates can be associated with high levels of uncertainty. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the practical feasibility, applications, and limitations of calibrating far-field stress estimates through tunnel deformation measurements captured using LiDAR imaging. A method that estimates the orientation and magnitude of excavation-induced principal stress changes through back-analysis of deformation measurements from LiDAR imaged tunnels was developed and tested using synthetic data. If excavation-induced stress change orientations and magnitudes can be accurately estimated, they can be used in the calibration of far-field stress input to numerical models. LiDAR point clouds have been proven to have a number of underground applications, thus it is desired to explore their use in numerical model calibration. The back-analysis method is founded on the superposition of stresses and requires a two-dimensional numerical model of the deforming tunnel. Principal stress changes of known orientation and magnitude are applied to the model to create calibration curves. Estimation can then be performed by minimizing squared differences between the measured tunnel and sets of calibration curve deformations. In addition to the back-analysis estimation method, a procedure consisting of previously existing techniques to measure tunnel deformation using LiDAR imaging was documented. Under ideal conditions, the back-analysis method estimated principal stress change orientations within ±5° and magnitudes within ±2 MPa. Results were comparable for four different tunnel profile shapes. Preliminary testing using plastic deformation, a rough tunnel profile, and profile occlusions suggests that the method can work under more realistic conditions. The results from this thesis set the groundwork for the continued development of a new, inexpensive, and efficient far-field stress estimate calibration method.

Sea-surface temperature reconstruction for sediment core GIK18287-3 in the tropical South China Sea

The timing and magnitude of sea-surface temperature (SST) changes in the tropical southern South China Sea (SCS) during the last 16,500 years have been reconstructed on a high-resolution, 14C-dated sediment core using three different foraminiferal transfer functions (SIMMAX28, RAM, FP-12E) and geochemical (Uk'37) SST estimates. In agreement with CLIMAP reconstructions, both the FP-12E and the Uk'37 SST estimates show an average late glacial-interglacial SST difference of 2.0°C, whereas the RAM and SIMMAX28 foraminiferal transfer functions show only a minor (0.6°C) or no consistent late glacial-interglacial SST change, respectively. Both the Uk'37 and the FP-12E SST estimates, as well as the planktonic foraminiferal delta18O values, indicate an abrupt warming (ca. 1°C in <200 yr) at the end of the last glaciation, synchronous (within dating uncertainties) with the Bølling transition as recorded in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) ice core, whereas the RAM-derived deglacial SST increase appears to lag during this event by ca. 500 yr. The similarity in abruptness and timing of the warming associated with the Bølling transition in Greenland and the southern SCS suggest a true synchrony of the Northern Hemisphere warming at the end of the last glaciation. In contrast to the foraminiferal transfer function estimates that do not indicate any consistent cooling associated with the Younger Dryas (YD) climate event in the tropical SCS, the Uk'37 SST estimates show a cooling of ca. 0.2-0.6°C compared to the Bølling-Allerød period. These Uk'37 SST estimates from the southern SCS argue in favor of a Northern Hemisphere-wide, synchronous cooling during the YD period.

Characteristics of soil profiles from the Ouémé Upper Catchment (HVO), Térou, Benin

Soil degradation threatens agricultural production and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa. In the coming decades, soil degradation, in particular soil erosion, will become worse through the expansion of agriculture into savannah and forest and changes in climate. This study aims to improve the understanding of how land use and climate change affect the hydrological cycle and soil erosion rates at the catchment scale. We used the semi-distributed, time-continuous erosion model SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) to quantify runoff processes and sheet and rill erosion in the Upper Ouémé River catchment (14500 km**2, Central Benin) for the period 1998-2005. We could then evaluate a range of land use and climate change scenarios with the SWAT model for the period 2001-2050 using spatial data from the land use model CLUE-S and the regional climate model REMO. Field investigations were performed to parameterise a soil map, to measure suspended sediment concentrations for model calibration and validation and to characterise erosion forms, degraded agricultural fields and soil conservation practices. Modelling results reveal current "hotspots" of soil erosion in the north-western, eastern and north-eastern parts of the Upper Ouémé catchment. As a consequence of rapid expansion of agricultural areas triggered by high population growth (partially caused by migration) and resulting increases in surface runoff and topsoil erosion, the mean sediment yield in the Upper Ouémé River outlet is expected to increase by 42 to 95% by 2025, depending on the land use scenario. In contrast, changes in climate variables led to decreases in sediment yield of 5 to 14% in 2001-2025 and 17 to 24% in 2026-2050. Combined scenarios showed the dominance of land use change leading to changes in mean sediment yield of -2 to +31% in 2001-2025. Scenario results vary considerably within the catchment. Current "hotspots" of soil erosion will aggravate, and a new "hotspot" will appear in the southern part of the catchment. Although only small parts of the Upper Ouémé catchment belong to the most degraded zones in the country, sustainable soil and plant management practices should be promoted in the entire catchment. The results of this study can support planning of soil conservation activities in Benin.

Regional-scale, fully coupled modelling of stream-aquifer interaction in a tropical catchment

The planning and management of water resources in the Pioneer Valley, north-eastern Australia requires a tool for assessing the impact of groundwater and stream abstractions on water supply reliabilities and environmental flows in Sandy Creek (the main surface water system studied). Consequently, a fully coupled stream-aquifer model has been constructed using the code MODHMS, calibrated to near-stream observations of watertable behaviour and multiple components of gauged stream flow. This model has been tested using other methods of estimation, including stream depletion analysis and radon isotope tracer sampling. The coarseness of spatial discretisation, which is required for practical reasons of computational efficiency, limits the model's capacity to simulate small-scale processes (e.g., near-stream groundwater pumping, bank storage effects), and alternative approaches are required to complement the model's range of applicability. Model predictions of groundwater influx to Sandy Creek are compared with baseflow estimates from three different hydrograph separation techniques, which were found to be unable to reflect the dynamics of Sandy Creek stream-aquifer interactions. The model was also used to infer changes in the water balance of the system caused by historical land use change. This led to constraints on the recharge distribution which can be implemented to improve model calibration performance. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Managing uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling:the UncertWeb framework

Web-based distributed modelling architectures are gaining increasing recognition as potentially useful tools to build holistic environmental models, combining individual components in complex workflows. However, existing web-based modelling frameworks currently offer no support for managing uncertainty. On the other hand, the rich array of modelling frameworks and simulation tools which support uncertainty propagation in complex and chained models typically lack the benefits of web based solutions such as ready publication, discoverability and easy access. In this article we describe the developments within the UncertWeb project which are designed to provide uncertainty support in the context of the proposed ‘Model Web’. We give an overview of uncertainty in modelling, review uncertainty management in existing modelling frameworks and consider the semantic and interoperability issues raised by integrated modelling. We describe the scope and architecture required to support uncertainty management as developed in UncertWeb. This includes tools which support elicitation, aggregation/disaggregation, visualisation and uncertainty/sensitivity analysis. We conclude by highlighting areas that require further research and development in UncertWeb, such as model calibration and inference within complex environmental models.