Augmenting competitiveness of cities through tourism planning : the role of collaborative decision support systems

Many cities around the globe are now considering tourism facilities and their remarkable revenues in order to become competitive in the global economy. In many of these cities a great emphasis is given to the cultural tourism as it plays an important role in the establishment of creative and knowledge-base of cities. The literature points out the importance of local community support in cultural tourism. In such context, the use of new approach and technologies in tourism planning in order to increase the community participation and competitiveness of cities’ cultural assets gains a great significance. This paper advocates a new planning approach for tourism planning, particularly for cultural tourism, to increase the competitiveness of cities. As part of this new approach, the paper introduces the joined up planning approach integrated with a collaborative decision support system: ‘the community-oriented decision support system’. This collaborative planning support system is an effective and efficient tool for cultural tourism planning, which provides a platform for local communities’ participation in the development decision process.

Cost effectiveness of antimicrobial catheters in the intensive care unit : Addressing uncertainty in the decision

Introduction: Some types of antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters (A-CVC) have been shown to be cost-effective in preventing catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI). However, not all types have been evaluated, and there are concerns over the quality and usefulness of these earlier studies. There is uncertainty amongst clinicians over which, if any, antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters to use. We re-evaluated the cost-effectiveness of all commercially available antimicrobialcoated central venous catheters for prevention of catheter-related bloodstream infection in adult intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Methods: We used a Markov decision model to compare the cost-effectiveness of antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters relative to uncoated catheters. Four catheter types were evaluated; minocycline and rifampicin (MR)-coated catheters; silver, platinum and carbon (SPC)-impregnated catheters; and two chlorhexidine and silver sulfadiazine-coated catheters, one coated on the external surface (CH/SSD (ext)) and the other coated on both surfaces (CH/SSD (int/ext)). The incremental cost per qualityadjusted life-year gained and the expected net monetary benefits were estimated for each. Uncertainty arising from data estimates, data quality and heterogeneity was explored in sensitivity analyses. Results: The baseline analysis, with no consideration of uncertainty, indicated all four types of antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters were cost-saving relative to uncoated catheters. Minocycline and rifampicin-coated catheters prevented 15 infections per 1,000 catheters and generated the greatest health benefits, 1.6 quality-adjusted life-years, and cost-savings, AUD $130,289. After considering uncertainty in the current evidence, the minocycline and rifampicin-coated catheters returned the highest incremental monetary net benefits of $948 per catheter; but there was a 62% probability of error in this conclusion. Although the minocycline and rifampicin-coated catheters had the highest monetary net benefits across multiple scenarios, the decision was always associated with high uncertainty. Conclusions: Current evidence suggests that the cost-effectiveness of using antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters within the ICU is highly uncertain. Policies to prevent catheter-related bloodstream infection amongst ICU patients should consider the cost-effectiveness of competing interventions in the light of this uncertainty. Decision makers would do well to consider the current gaps in knowledge and the complexity of producing good quality evidence in this area.

Modelling and execution of asset management process via workflow automation

An Asset Management (AM) life-cycle constitutes a set of processes that align with the development, operation and maintenance of assets, in order to meet the desired requirements and objectives of the stake holders of the business. The scope of AM is often broad within an organization due to the interactions between its internal elements such as human resources, finance, technology, engineering operation, information technology and management, as well as external elements such as governance and environment. Due to the complexity of the AM processes, it has been proposed that in order to optimize asset management activities, process modelling initiatives should be adopted. Although organisations adopt AM principles and carry out AM initiatives, most do not document or model their AM processes, let alone enacting their processes (semi-) automatically using a computer-supported system. There is currently a lack of knowledge describing how to model AM processes through a methodical and suitable manner so that the processes are streamlines and optimized and are ready for deployment in a computerised way. This research aims to overcome this deficiency by developing an approach that will aid organisations in constructing AM process models quickly and systematically whilst using the most appropriate techniques, such as workflow technology. Currently, there is a wealth of information within the individual domains of AM and workflow. Both fields are gaining significant popularity in many industries thus fuelling the need for research in exploring the possible benefits of their cross-disciplinary applications. This research is thus inspired to investigate these two domains to exploit the application of workflow to modelling and execution of AM processes. Specifically, it will investigate appropriate methodologies in applying workflow techniques to AM frameworks. One of the benefits of applying workflow models to AM processes is to adapt and enable both ad-hoc and evolutionary changes over time. In addition, this can automate an AM process as well as to support the coordination and collaboration of people that are involved in carrying out the process. A workflow management system (WFMS) can be used to support the design and enactment (i.e. execution) of processes and cope with changes that occur to the process during the enactment. So far few literatures can be found in documenting a systematic approach to modelling the characteristics of AM processes. In order to obtain a workflow model for AM processes commonalities and differences between different AM processes need to be identified. This is the fundamental step in developing a conscientious workflow model for AM processes. Therefore, the first stage of this research focuses on identifying the characteristics of AM processes, especially AM decision making processes. The second stage is to review a number of contemporary workflow techniques and choose a suitable technique for application to AM decision making processes. The third stage is to develop an intermediate ameliorated AM decision process definition that improves the current process description and is ready for modelling using the workflow language selected in the previous stage. All these lead to the fourth stage where a workflow model for an AM decision making process is developed. The process model is then deployed (semi-) automatically in a state-of-the-art WFMS demonstrating the benefits of applying workflow technology to the domain of AM. Given that the information in the AM decision making process is captured at an abstract level within the scope of this work, the deployed process model can be used as an executable guideline for carrying out an AM decision process in practice. Moreover, it can be used as a vanilla system that, once being incorporated with rich information from a specific AM decision making process (e.g. in the case of a building construction or a power plant maintenance), is able to support the automation of such a process in a more elaborated way.

Theoretical framework for a management decision evaluation system

A theoretical framework for a construction management decision evaluation system for project selection by means of a literature review. The theory is developed by the examination of the major factors concerning the project selection decision from a deterministic viewpoint, where the decision-maker is assumed to possess 'perfect knowledge' of all the aspects involved. Four fundamental project characteristics are identified together with three meaningful outcome variables. The relationship within and between these variables are considered together with some possible solution techniques. The theory is next extended to time-related dynamic aspects of the problem leading to the implications of imperfect knowledge and a non­deterministic model. A solution technique is proposed in which Gottinger's sequential machines are utilised to model the decision process,

Decision making under pressure : a behavioural economics perspective

This research investigates the decision making process of individuals from revealed preferences in extreme environments or life-and-death situations, from a behavioral economics perspective. The empirical analysis of revealed behavioral preferences shows how the individual decision making process can deviate from the standard self-interested or “homo economicus” model in non-standard situations. The environments examined include: elite athletes in FIFA World and Euro Cups; climbing on Everest and the Himalaya; communication during 9/11 and risk seeking after the 2011 Brisbane floods. The results reveal that the interaction of culture and environment has a significant impact on the decision process, as social behaviors and institutions are intimately intertwined, which govern the processes of human behavior and interaction. Additionally, that risk attitudes are not set and that immediate environmental factors can induce a significant shift in an individuals risk seeking behaviors.

Pipeline renewal decision support : a case study using LinEAR in a water pipeline network

This paper presents a case study for the application of a Linear Engineering Asset Renewal decision support software tool (LinEAR) at a water distribution network in Australia. This case study examines how the LinEAR can assist water utilities to minimise their total pipeline management cost, to make a long-term budget based on mathematically predicted expenditure, and to present calculated evidence for supporting their expenditure requirements. The outcomes from the study on pipeline renewal decision support demonstrate that LinEAR can help water utilities to improve the decision process and save renewal costs over a long-term by providing an optimum renewal schedules. This software can help organisation to accumulate technical knowledge and prediction future impact of the decision using what-if analysis.

Causes of rigidity in SMEs' export commencement decision

Today, small-medium sized enterprises (SMEs) collectively contribute to the largest percentage of job creation in OECD countries. SMEs have become increasingly international since the turn of the century despite being smaller in size in comparison to large multinational firms, and notably, exporting is the most favoured mode of international market entry utilised by SMEs in their internationalisation strategy. Governments around the world have acknowledged the importance of export promotion and have employed policies that are targeted at increasing the export activity of SMEs. However, in many countries, the involvement of SMEs in export operations remains rather low. Within Australia, for example, only about one-third of local SMEs are exporting and this raises an important question as to why there is such a huge percentage of non-exporters. Much scholarly research that focuses on this problem has concentrated on the broad concept of 'export barriers' that act as obstacles to a firm's export development. This paper takes a different approach to previous studies and proposes that a firm's resistance to commence exporting can be better understood through an analysis of the behavioural decision process during its pre-export state. Using a sample of Australian SMEs, the factors that are important in preventing a firm’s initial export commencement decision are categorised and discussed through the use of factor analysis.

Competitive Smart Cities through Healthy Decision-making

This chapter examines the challenges and opportunities associated with planning for competitive, smart and healthy cities. The chapter is based on the assumptions that a healthy city is an important prerequisite for a competitive city and a fundamental outcome of smart cities. Thus, it is preeminent to understand the planning decision support system based on local determinants of health, economic and social factors. One of the major decision support systems is e-health and this chapter will focus on the role of e-health planning, by utilising web-based geographic decision support systems. The proposed novel decision support system would provide a powerful and effective platform for stakeholders to access online information for a better decision-making while empowering community participation. The chapter also highlights the need for a comprehensive conceptual framework to guide the decision process of planning for healthy cities in association with opportunities and limitations. In summary, this chapter provides the critical insights of using information science-based framework and suggest online decision support methods, as part of a broader e-health approach for creating a healthy, competitive and smart city.

Error bounds for calculation of the Gittins indices

For a wide class of semi-Markov decision processes the optimal policies are expressible in terms of the Gittins indices, which have been found useful in sequential clinical trials and pharmaceutical research planning. In general, the indices can be approximated via calibration based on dynamic programming of finite horizon. This paper provides some results on the accuracy of such approximations, and, in particular, gives the error bounds for some well known processes (Bernoulli reward processes, normal reward processes and exponential target processes).

Modeling multi-stakeholder multi-objective decisions during public participation in major infrastructure and construction projects: A decision rule approach

Major infrastructure and construction (MIC) projects are those with significant traffic or environmental impact, of strategic and regional significance and high sensitivity. The decision making process of schemes of this type is becoming ever more complicated, especially with the increasing number of stakeholders involved and their growing tendency to defend their own varied interests. Failing to address and meet the concerns and expectations of stakeholders may result in project failures. To avoid this necessitates a systematic participatory approach to facilitate decision-making. Though numerous decision models have been established in previous studies (e.g. ELECTRE methods, the analytic hierarchy process and analytic network process) their applicability in the decision process during stakeholder participation in contemporary MIC projects is still uncertain. To resolve this, the decision rule approach is employed for modeling multi-stakeholder multi-objective project decisions. Through this, the result is obtained naturally according to the “rules” accepted by any stakeholder involved. In this sense, consensus is more likely to be achieved since the process is more convincing and the result is easier to be accepted by all concerned. Appropriate “rules”, comprehensive enough to address multiple objectives while straightforward enough to be understood by multiple stakeholders, are set for resolving conflict and facilitating consensus during the project decision process. The West Kowloon Cultural District (WKCD) project is used as a demonstration case and a focus group meeting is conducted in order to confirm the validity of the model established. The results indicate that the model is objective, reliable and practical enough to cope with real world problems. Finally, a suggested future research agenda is provided.

Make or buy decision in the context of manufacturing strategy

This paper describes an approach to structuring the make or buy decision process, basing it firmly in the context of an overall manufacturing strategy. The work has been carried out jointly by the University of Cambridge Manufacturing Engineering Group and Lucas Industries. A review of the current state of ideas surrounding the linked issues of vertical integration and make or buy decisions is presented. Important features of the approach include identification of core manufacturing capabilities, assessment of the role of technology in manufacturing, the development of a cost model to support make or buy decisions and a review of the strategic implications of varying degrees of vertical integration.

Deliberation in the motor system: reflex gains track evolving evidence leading to a decision.

Both decision making and sensorimotor control require real-time processing of noisy information streams. Historically these processes were thought to operate sequentially: cognitive processing leads to a decision, and the outcome is passed to the motor system to be converted into action. Recently, it has been suggested that the decision process may provide a continuous flow of information to the motor system, allowing it to prepare in a graded fashion for the probable outcome. Such continuous flow is supported by electrophysiology in nonhuman primates. Here we provide direct evidence for the continuous flow of an evolving decision variable to the motor system in humans. Subjects viewed a dynamic random dot display and were asked to indicate their decision about direction by moving a handle to one of two targets. We probed the state of the motor system by perturbing the arm at random times during decision formation. Reflex gains were modulated by the strength and duration of motion, reflecting the accumulated evidence in support of the evolving decision. The magnitude and variance of these gains tracked a decision variable that explained the subject's decision accuracy. The findings support a continuous process linking the evolving computations associated with decision making and sensorimotor control.

POMDP-based statistical spoken dialog systems: A review

Statistical dialog systems (SDSs) are motivated by the need for a data-driven framework that reduces the cost of laboriously handcrafting complex dialog managers and that provides robustness against the errors created by speech recognizers operating in noisy environments. By including an explicit Bayesian model of uncertainty and by optimizing the policy via a reward-driven process, partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide such a framework. However, exact model representation and optimization is computationally intractable. Hence, the practical application of POMDP-based systems requires efficient algorithms and carefully constructed approximations. This review article provides an overview of the current state of the art in the development of POMDP-based spoken dialog systems. © 1963-2012 IEEE.

Generalized Markov branching processes

A generalized Markov Brnching Process (GMBP) is a Markov branching model where the infinitesimal branching rates are modified with an interaction index. It is proved that there always exists only one GMBP. An associated differential-integral equation is derived. The extinction probalility and the mean and conditional mean extinction times are obtained. Ergodicity and stability of GMBP with resurrection are also considered. Easy checking criteria are established for ordinary and strong ergodicty. The equilibrium distribution is given in an elegant closed form. The probability meaning of our results is clear and thus explained.