914 resultados para Markov Decision Process
Resumo:
The Republic of Haiti is the prime international remittances recipient country in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region relative to its gross domestic product (GDP). The downside of this observation may be that this country is also the first exporter of skilled workers in the world by population size. The present research uses a zero-altered negative binomial (with logit inflation) to model households' international migration decision process, and endogenous regressors' Amemiya Generalized Least Squares method (instrumental variable Tobit, IV-Tobit) to account for selectivity and endogeneity issues in assessing the impact of remittances on labor market outcomes. Results are in line with what has been found so far in this literature in terms of a decline of labor supply in the presence of remittances. However, the impact of international remittances does not seem to be important in determining recipient households' labor participation behavior, particularly for women.
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Prognosis of early breast cancer patients is significantly improved with the use of adjuvant therapies. Various guidelines have been proposed to select patients who will derive the most benefit from such treatments. However, classifications have limited usefulness in subsets of patients such as those with node negative breast cancer. The 2007 St. Paul de Vence Clinical Practice Recommendations proposed to consider adjuvant therapy in accordance with the 10-year relapse-free survival reduction estimated by Adjuvant! Online. However, many limitations remain regarding the use of Adjuvant! Online. Among them, adverse prognostic and/or predictive factors such as vascular invasion, mitotic activity, progesterone receptor negativity, and HER-2 expression are not incorporated in the routine clinical decision process. Our group has therefore issued guidelines based on the consideration of both Adjuvant! Online calculations and the prognostic and/or predictive effects of these markers. In addition, web-accessible comprehensive tables summarizing these recommendations are provided.
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Until recently, much of the discussion regarding the type of organization theory needed in management studies focused on normative vs. descriptive roles of management science. Some authors however noticed that even a descriptive theory can have a normative impact. Among others, management theories are used by practitioners to make sense of their identity and roles in given contexts, and so guide their attitude, decision process, and behavior. The sensemaking potential of a theory might in this view represent an important element for predicting the adoption of a theory by practitioners. Accordingly, theories are needed which better grasp the increased complexity of today's business environment in order to be more relevant for practitioners. This article proposes a multi-faceted perspective of organizations. This implies leaving a simplistic view of organizations and building a 'cubist' conception. Picasso's cubism paintings are characterized by the use of multiple perspectives within a single drawing. Similarly, I argue here that managers must learn not only to add multiple responsibilities in their work, but to develop an integrated conception of their managerial identity and of their organizations in which the multiple social and economic dimensions are enmeshed. Social entrepreneurship is discussed as illustration of typical multi-faceted business.
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Breast cancer remains a major public health problem. Even if there is an increase in this cancer curability, metastatic breast cancer remains a lethal disease in the vast majority of cases. Therapeutic advances in the chemotherapeutic and targeted therapies fields induced an increase in survival, however the proportion of long survivors remains low. Phenotypic instability, an early process initiated during tumour progression, and continued on the metastatic stage of the disease, can be one of the putative hypotheses explaining these results. An increasing amount of scientific data are pledging for a reanalysis of the phenotypic profile regarding hormone receptors and HER-2 status of metastatic lesions in order to identify drugable targets and allow individualisation of the treatment of these metastatic breast cancer patients. Phenotypic changes between the primary tumour and the paired metastatic lymph nodes are a challenging pitfall, raising the question of which site has to be assessed in the adjuvant treatment decision process. This article presents a comprehensive analysis of the frequency of theses phenotypic changes altogether with new modalities to evaluate this phenotypic status.
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The tourism consumer’s purchase decision process is, to a great extent, conditioned by the image the tourist has of the different destinations that make up his or her choice set. In a highly competitive international tourist market, those responsible for destinations’ promotion and development policies seek differentiation strategies so that they may position the destinations in the most suitable market segments for their product in order to improve their attractiveness to visitors and increase or consolidate the economic benefits that tourism activity generates in their territory. To this end, the main objective we set ourselves in this paper is the empirical analysis of the factors that determine the image formation of Tarragona city as a cultural heritage destination. Without a doubt, UNESCO’s declaration of Tarragona’s artistic and monumental legacies as World Heritage site in the year 2000 meant important international recognition of the quality of the cultural and patrimonial elements offered by the city to the visitors who choose it as a tourist destination. It also represents a strategic opportunity to boost the city’s promotion of tourism and its consolidation as a unique destination given its cultural and patrimonial characteristics. Our work is based on the use of structured and unstructured techniques to identify the factors that determine Tarragona’s tourist destination image and that have a decisive influence on visitors’ process of choice of destination. In addition to being able to ascertain Tarragona’s global tourist image, we consider that the heterogeneity of its visitors requires a more detailed study that enables us to segment visitor typology. We consider that the information provided by these results may prove of great interest to those responsible for local tourism policy, both when designing products and when promoting the destination.
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Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly proposed to support conservation decision making. However, evidence of SDMs supporting solutions for on-ground conservation problems is still scarce in the scientific literature. Here, we show that successful examples exist but are still largely hidden in the grey literature, and thus less accessible for analysis and learning. Furthermore, the decision framework within which SDMs are used is rarely made explicit. Using case studies from biological invasions, identification of critical habitats, reserve selection and translocation of endangered species, we propose that SDMs may be tailored to suit a range of decision-making contexts when used within a structured and transparent decision-making process. To construct appropriate SDMs to more effectively guide conservation actions, modellers need to better understand the decision process, and decision makers need to provide feedback to modellers regarding the actual use of SDMs to support conservation decisions. This could be facilitated by individuals or institutions playing the role of 'translators' between modellers and decision makers. We encourage species distribution modellers to get involved in real decision-making processes that will benefit from their technical input; this strategy has the potential to better bridge theory and practice, and contribute to improve both scientific knowledge and conservation outcomes.
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We present a polyhedral framework for establishing general structural properties on optimal solutions of stochastic scheduling problems, where multiple job classes vie for service resources: the existence of an optimal priority policy in a given family, characterized by a greedoid (whose feasible class subsets may receive higher priority), where optimal priorities are determined by class-ranking indices, under restricted linear performance objectives (partial indexability). This framework extends that of Bertsimas and Niño-Mora (1996), which explained the optimality of priority-index policies under all linear objectives (general indexability). We show that, if performance measures satisfy partial conservation laws (with respect to the greedoid), which extend previous generalized conservation laws, then the problem admits a strong LP relaxation over a so-called extended greedoid polytope, which has strong structural and algorithmic properties. We present an adaptive-greedy algorithm (which extends Klimov's) taking as input the linear objective coefficients, which (1) determines whether the optimal LP solution is achievable by a policy in the given family; and (2) if so, computes a set of class-ranking indices that characterize optimal priority policies in the family. In the special case of project scheduling, we show that, under additional conditions, the optimal indices can be computed separately for each project (index decomposition). We further apply the framework to the important restless bandit model (two-action Markov decision chains), obtaining new index policies, that extend Whittle's (1988), and simple sufficient conditions for their validity. These results highlight the power of polyhedral methods (the so-called achievable region approach) in dynamic and stochastic optimization.
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A Investigação Operacional vem demonstrando ser uma valiosa ferramenta de gestão nos dias de hoje em que se vive num mercado cada vez mais competitivo. Através da Programação Linear pode-se reproduzir matematicamente um problema de maximização dos resultados ou minimização dos custos de produção com o propósito de auxiliar os gestores na tomada de decisão. A Programação Linear é um método matemático em que a função objectivo e as restrições assumem características lineares, com diversas aplicações no controlo de gestão, envolvendo normalmente problemas de utilização dos recursos disponíveis sujeitos a limitações impostas pelo processo produtivo ou pelo mercado. O objectivo geral deste trabalho é o de propor um modelo de Programação Linear para a programação ou produção e alocação de recursos necessários. Optimizar uma quantidade física designada função objectivo, tendo em conta um conjunto de condicionalismos endógenas às actividades em gestão. O objectivo crucial é dispor um modelo de apoio à gestão contribuindo assim para afectação eficiente de recursos escassos à disposição da unidade económica. Com o trabalho desenvolvido ficou patente a importância da abordagem quantitativa como recurso imprescindível de apoio ao processo de decisão. The operational research has proven to be a valuable management tool today we live in an increasingly competitive market. Through Linear Programming can be mathematically reproduce a problem of maximizing performance or minimizing production costs in order to assist managers in decision making. The Linear Programming is a mathematical method in which the objective function and constraints are linear features, with several applications in the control of management, usually involving problems of resource use are available subject to limitations imposed by the production process or the market. The overall objective of this work is to propose a Linear Programming model for scheduling or production and allocation of necessary resources. Optimizing a physical quantity called the objective function, given a set of endogenous constraints on management thus contributing to efficient allocation of scarce resources available to the economic unit. With the work has demonstrated the importance of the quantitative approach as essential resource to support the decision process.
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Dealing at patient's home with an acute abdominal pain may be particularly challenging for the primary care physician. In such a clinical situation, the part of laboratory and radiological investigations is increasing in the diagnostic process. The decision to keep the patient at home based on a clinical evaluation alone may represent a great medical responsibility for the physician. Emergency departments (ED) are of course in charge of investigating such patients with a wide panel of investigation techniques. But these structures are chronically overcrowded resulting frequently in long and difficult periods of waiting. Based on a literature review, a description of useful clinical symptoms and signs is summarized and should help the decision process for the orientation of the patient.
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We present a polyhedral framework for establishing general structural properties on optimal solutions of stochastic scheduling problems, where multiple job classes vie for service resources: the existence of an optimal priority policy in a given family, characterized by a greedoid(whose feasible class subsets may receive higher priority), where optimal priorities are determined by class-ranking indices, under restricted linear performance objectives (partial indexability). This framework extends that of Bertsimas and Niño-Mora (1996), which explained the optimality of priority-index policies under all linear objectives (general indexability). We show that, if performance measures satisfy partial conservation laws (with respect to the greedoid), which extend previous generalized conservation laws, then theproblem admits a strong LP relaxation over a so-called extended greedoid polytope, which has strong structural and algorithmic properties. We present an adaptive-greedy algorithm (which extends Klimov's) taking as input the linear objective coefficients, which (1) determines whether the optimal LP solution is achievable by a policy in the given family; and (2) if so, computes a set of class-ranking indices that characterize optimal priority policies in the family. In the special case of project scheduling, we show that, under additional conditions, the optimal indices can be computed separately for each project (index decomposition). We further apply the framework to the important restless bandit model (two-action Markov decision chains), obtaining new index policies, that extend Whittle's (1988), and simple sufficient conditions for their validity. These results highlight the power of polyhedral methods (the so-called achievable region approach) in dynamic and stochastic optimization.
Resumo:
We show that if performance measures in a stochastic scheduling problem satisfy a set of so-called partial conservation laws (PCL), which extend previously studied generalized conservation laws (GCL), then the problem is solved optimally by a priority-index policy for an appropriate range of linear performance objectives, where the optimal indices are computed by a one-pass adaptive-greedy algorithm, based on Klimov's. We further apply this framework to investigate the indexability property of restless bandits introduced by Whittle, obtaining the following results: (1) we identify a class of restless bandits (PCL-indexable) which are indexable; membership in this class is tested through a single run of the adaptive-greedy algorithm, which also computes the Whittle indices when the test is positive; this provides a tractable sufficient condition for indexability; (2) we further indentify the class of GCL-indexable bandits, which includes classical bandits, having the property that they are indexable under any linear reward objective. The analysis is based on the so-called achievable region method, as the results follow fromnew linear programming formulations for the problems investigated.
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This paper analyses the demand for private health care by Spanishhouseholds using a micro budget survey. The methodology used takescare of the three part decision process involved in this type ofbehaviour, namely the decision to use private health care, howoften to do so and how much to spend each time and also the effectsof unobserved heterogeneity. Since the theoretical frameworkcorresponds to the Grossman model of health investment, the resultsalso provide a test of the theory when these issues are considered.Finally, the obtained evidence also suggest that the current systemof tax deductions for private health care expenditures is regressive.
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We develop a mathematical programming approach for the classicalPSPACE - hard restless bandit problem in stochastic optimization.We introduce a hierarchy of n (where n is the number of bandits)increasingly stronger linear programming relaxations, the lastof which is exact and corresponds to the (exponential size)formulation of the problem as a Markov decision chain, while theother relaxations provide bounds and are efficiently computed. Wealso propose a priority-index heuristic scheduling policy fromthe solution to the first-order relaxation, where the indices aredefined in terms of optimal dual variables. In this way wepropose a policy and a suboptimality guarantee. We report resultsof computational experiments that suggest that the proposedheuristic policy is nearly optimal. Moreover, the second-orderrelaxation is found to provide strong bounds on the optimalvalue.
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The proportion of population living in or around cites is more important than ever. Urban sprawl and car dependence have taken over the pedestrian-friendly compact city. Environmental problems like air pollution, land waste or noise, and health problems are the result of this still continuing process. The urban planners have to find solutions to these complex problems, and at the same time insure the economic performance of the city and its surroundings. At the same time, an increasing quantity of socio-economic and environmental data is acquired. In order to get a better understanding of the processes and phenomena taking place in the complex urban environment, these data should be analysed. Numerous methods for modelling and simulating such a system exist and are still under development and can be exploited by the urban geographers for improving our understanding of the urban metabolism. Modern and innovative visualisation techniques help in communicating the results of such models and simulations. This thesis covers several methods for analysis, modelling, simulation and visualisation of problems related to urban geography. The analysis of high dimensional socio-economic data using artificial neural network techniques, especially self-organising maps, is showed using two examples at different scales. The problem of spatiotemporal modelling and data representation is treated and some possible solutions are shown. The simulation of urban dynamics and more specifically the traffic due to commuting to work is illustrated using multi-agent micro-simulation techniques. A section on visualisation methods presents cartograms for transforming the geographic space into a feature space, and the distance circle map, a centre-based map representation particularly useful for urban agglomerations. Some issues on the importance of scale in urban analysis and clustering of urban phenomena are exposed. A new approach on how to define urban areas at different scales is developed, and the link with percolation theory established. Fractal statistics, especially the lacunarity measure, and scale laws are used for characterising urban clusters. In a last section, the population evolution is modelled using a model close to the well-established gravity model. The work covers quite a wide range of methods useful in urban geography. Methods should still be developed further and at the same time find their way into the daily work and decision process of urban planners. La part de personnes vivant dans une région urbaine est plus élevé que jamais et continue à croître. L'étalement urbain et la dépendance automobile ont supplanté la ville compacte adaptée aux piétons. La pollution de l'air, le gaspillage du sol, le bruit, et des problèmes de santé pour les habitants en sont la conséquence. Les urbanistes doivent trouver, ensemble avec toute la société, des solutions à ces problèmes complexes. En même temps, il faut assurer la performance économique de la ville et de sa région. Actuellement, une quantité grandissante de données socio-économiques et environnementales est récoltée. Pour mieux comprendre les processus et phénomènes du système complexe "ville", ces données doivent être traitées et analysées. Des nombreuses méthodes pour modéliser et simuler un tel système existent et sont continuellement en développement. Elles peuvent être exploitées par le géographe urbain pour améliorer sa connaissance du métabolisme urbain. Des techniques modernes et innovatrices de visualisation aident dans la communication des résultats de tels modèles et simulations. Cette thèse décrit plusieurs méthodes permettant d'analyser, de modéliser, de simuler et de visualiser des phénomènes urbains. L'analyse de données socio-économiques à très haute dimension à l'aide de réseaux de neurones artificiels, notamment des cartes auto-organisatrices, est montré à travers deux exemples aux échelles différentes. Le problème de modélisation spatio-temporelle et de représentation des données est discuté et quelques ébauches de solutions esquissées. La simulation de la dynamique urbaine, et plus spécifiquement du trafic automobile engendré par les pendulaires est illustrée à l'aide d'une simulation multi-agents. Une section sur les méthodes de visualisation montre des cartes en anamorphoses permettant de transformer l'espace géographique en espace fonctionnel. Un autre type de carte, les cartes circulaires, est présenté. Ce type de carte est particulièrement utile pour les agglomérations urbaines. Quelques questions liées à l'importance de l'échelle dans l'analyse urbaine sont également discutées. Une nouvelle approche pour définir des clusters urbains à des échelles différentes est développée, et le lien avec la théorie de la percolation est établi. Des statistiques fractales, notamment la lacunarité, sont utilisées pour caractériser ces clusters urbains. L'évolution de la population est modélisée à l'aide d'un modèle proche du modèle gravitaire bien connu. Le travail couvre une large panoplie de méthodes utiles en géographie urbaine. Toutefois, il est toujours nécessaire de développer plus loin ces méthodes et en même temps, elles doivent trouver leur chemin dans la vie quotidienne des urbanistes et planificateurs.
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OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) and do-not-attempt-resuscitation (DNAR) orders, to define factors associated with CPR/DNAR orders and to explore how physicians make and document these decisions. METHODS: We prospectively reviewed CPR/DNAR forms of 1,446 patients admitted to the General Internal Medicine Department of the Geneva University Hospitals, a tertiary-care teaching hospital in Switzerland. We additionally administered a face-to-face survey to residents in charge of 206 patients including DNAR and CPR orders, with or without patient inclusion. RESULTS: 21.2% of the patients had a DNAR order, 61.7% a CPR order and 17.1% had neither. The two main factors associated with DNAR orders were a worse prognosis and/or a worse quality of life. Others factors were an older age, cancer and psychiatric diagnoses, and the absence of decision-making capacity. Residents gave four major justifications for DNAR orders: important comorbid conditions (34%), the patients' or their family's resuscitation preferences (18%), the patients' age (14.2%), and the absence of decision-making capacity (8%). Residents who wrote DNAR orders were more experienced. In many of the DNAR or CPR forms (19.8 and 16%, respectively), the order was written using a variety of formulations. For 24% of the residents, the distinction between the resuscitation order and the care objective was not clear. 38% of the residents found the resuscitation form useful. CONCLUSION: Patients' prognosis and quality of life were the two main independent factors associated with CPR/DNAR orders. However, in the majority of cases, residents evaluated prognosis only intuitively, and quality of life without involving the patients. The distinction between CPR/DNAR orders and the care objectives was not always clear. Specific training regarding CPR/DNAR orders is necessary to improve the CPR/DNAR decision process used by physicians.