Exploring public support for climate change adaptation policies in the Mediterranean region: A case study in Southern Spain.

The understanding of public perception to climate change is an essential factor in the development of adaptation policies. In the Mediterranean, agriculture, as the largest consumer of freshwater, has the highest potential to suffer adverse impacts of climate change. Future water availability predictions, conflicting interests among stakeholders and an increasing social concern about the environment further aggravate the situation. Therefore studying public support for adaptation policies can play a key role in successfully adapting the sector. The study site, approximately 36,000 hectares of rice fields in Seville (Spain), exemplifies an area in the Mediterranean where water needs to be carefully re-allocated in view of the limitations anticipated by climate change scenarios; in particular where conflicts will arise between water for agriculture and water for ‘natural’ ecosystems. This paper proposes an ex-ante evaluation of the societal support for adaptation policies. A survey of 117 respondents was conducted and a Logit model utilized to analyze which predictors positively or negatively affect people's support for adaptation policies. Results suggest that the main barriers to support these policies were economic losses and low climate change concern whereas the primary motivation factor was environmental commitment. Additionally, the main socio-demographic determinants were gender, age, education and family structure. In order to improve societal support for climate change adaptation policies, implementing educational and awareness raising initiatives will be the main challenges for policy makers to overcome.

Cycling habits and other psychological variables affecting commuting by bicycle in city of Madrid

To develop effective cycling policies, decision makers and administrators should know the factors influencing the use of the bicycle for daily mobility. Traditional discrete choice models tend to be based on variables such as time and cost, which do not sufficiently explain the choice of the bicycle as a mode of transportation. Because psychological factors have been identified as particularly influential in the decision to commute by bicycle, this paper examines the perceptions of cycling factors and their influence on commuting by bicycle. Perceptions are measured by attitudes, other psychological variables, and habits. Statistical differences in the variables are established in relation to the choice of commuting mode and bicycle experience (commuter, sport–leisure, no use). Doing so enables the authors to identify the main barriers to commuting by bicycle and to make recommendations for cycling policies. Two underlying structures (factors) of the attitudinal variables are identified: direct benefits and long-term benefits. Three other factors are related to variables of difficulty: physical conditions, external facilities, and individual capacities. The effect of attitudes and other psychological variables on people’s decision to cycle to work–place of study is tested by using a logit model. In the case study of Madrid, Spain, the decision to cycle to work– place of study is heavily influenced by cycling habits (for noncommuting trips). Because bicycle commuting is not common, attitudes and other psychological variables play a less important role in the use of bikes.

Exploring the role of social capital influence variables on travel behaviour

This paper explores the potential role of individual trip characteristics and social capital network variables in the choice of transport mode. A sample of around 100 individuals living or working in one suburb of Madrid (i.e. Las Rosas district of Madrid) participated in a smartphone short panel survey, entering travel data for an entire working week. A Mixed Logit model was estimated with this data to analyze shifts to metro as a consequence of the opening of two new stations in the area. Apart from classical explanatory variables, such as travel time and cost, gender, license and car ownership, the model incorporated two “social capital network” variables: participation in voluntary activities and receiving help for various tasks (i.e. child care, housekeeping, etc.). Both variables improved the capacity of the model to explain transport mode shifts. Further, our results confirm that the shift towards metro was higher in the case of people “helped” and lower for those participating in some voluntary activities.

Railway Rapid Transit timetables with variable and elastic demand.

This paper focuses on the design of railway timetables considering a variable elastic demand profile along a whole design day. Timetabling is the third stage in the classical hierarchical railway planning process. Most of previous works on this topic consider a uniform demand behavior for short planning intervals. In this paper, we propose a MINLP model for designing non-periodic timetables on a railway corridor where demand is dependent on waiting times. In the elastic demand case, long waiting times lead to a loss of passengers, who may select an alternative transportation mode. The mode choice is modeled using two alternative methods. The first one is based on a sigmoid function and can be used in case of absence of information for competitor modes. In the second one, the mode choice probability is obtained using a Logit model that explicitly considers the existence of a main alternative mode. With the purpose of obtaining optimal departure times, in both cases, a minimization of the loss of passengers is used as objective function. Finally, as illustration, the timetabling MINLP model with both mode choice methods is applied to a real case and computational results are shown.

Assessing the passengers’ perception of implemented advanced management measures in bus service

The aim of this investigation is to evaluate the passenger?s perception of some attributes related to quality of bus services, and how this perception changes with the implementation of different measures. Surveys to passengers riding different bus lines were conducted in two scenarios: before the implementation of the measures and after the measures were implemented. The results of the passenger surveys were statistically analysed; then, an ordered logit model was used to analyse the differences between surveys thanks to the implemented measures. Finally, a factor analysis was done to identify the underlying unobserved factors (latent variables) that the respondents perceived

Modelización de un proceso de elección secuencial en cuatro etapas del consumidor turista

El objetivo de este trabajo consiste en proponer un proceso de decisión secuencial y jerárquico que siguen los turistas vacacionales en cuatro etapas: 1) salir (o no) de vacaciones; 2) elección de un viaje nacional vs. internacional; 3) elección de determinadas áreas geográficas; y 4) elección de la modalidad del viaje -multidestino o de destino fijo- en estas áreas. Este análisis permite examinar las distintas fases que sigue un turista hasta seleccionar una determinada modalidad de viaje en un zona geográfica concreta, así como observar los factores que influyen en cada etapa. La aplicación empírica se realiza sobre una muestra de 3.781 individuos, y estima, mediante procedimientos bayesianos, un Modelo Logit de Coeficientes Aleatorios. Los resultados obtenidos revelan el carácter anidado y no independiente de las decisiones anteriores, lo que confirma el proceso secuencial y jerárquico propuesto.

A new marketing segmentation approach based on marginal individual utilities: applying CRM is not a chimera anymore

In the advent of Customer Relationship Management, a more accurate profile of the consumer is needed. The objective of this paper is to show the usefulness of knowing consumer’s complete utility function through his/her marginal utilities. This approach allows one to form groups of individuals with similar preferences (as traditional segmentation methods do) and to treat them individually (which represents an advance). The empirical application is carried out, on a sample of 2,127 individuals, in the context of tourism, where the customer relationship management philosophy is gaining more and more relevance.

Does the consumer’s variety-seeking behavior condition the willingness to travel further?

The objective of this study is to test the effect of the consumer’s variety-seeking behaviour on the distance the tourist is prepared to travel; that is, his/her willingness to travel further. The empirical application is carried out in Spain in a context with 26 destinations, by applying Mixed Logit Models. The results evidence that the variety-seeking behaviour reduces the dissuasive effect of distance.

Contribution of individual to collective brands

Traditionally, literature estimates the equity of a brand or its extension but it pays little attention to collective brand equity even though collective branding is increasingly used to differentiate the homogenous products of different firms or organizations. We propose an approach that estimates the incremental effect of individual brands (or the contribution of individual brands) on collective brand equity through the various stages of a consumer hierarchical buying choice process in which decisions are nested: “whether to buy”, “what collective brand to buy” and “what individual brand to buy”. This proposal follows the approach of the Random Utility Theory, and it is theoretically argued through the Associative Networks Theory and the cybernetic model of decision making. The empirical analysis carried out in the area of collective brands in Spanish tourism finds a three-stage hierarchical sequence, and estimates the contribution of individual brands to the equity of the collective brands of “Sun, Sea and Sand” and of “World Heritage Cities”.

Proceso cuatrietápico de elección del turista

El objetivo de este trabajo consiste en proponer y testar un proceso de decisión anidado y jerárquico que siguen los turistas vacacionales en cuatro etapas: 1) salir (o no) de vacaciones; 2) elección de un viaje nacional vs. internacional; 3) elección de determinadas áreas geográficas; y 4) elección de la modalidad del viaje –multidestino o de destino fijo– en estas áreas. Este análisis permite examinar las distintas fases que sigue un turista hasta seleccionar una determinada modalidad de viaje en un zona geográfica concreta, así como observar los factores que influyen en cada etapa. La aplicación empírica se realiza sobre una muestra de 3.781 individuos, y estima, mediante procedimientos bayesianos, un Modelo Logit de Coeficientes Aleatorios. Los resultados obtenidos revelan el carácter anidado y no independiente de las decisiones anteriores, lo que confirma el proceso anidado y jerárquico propuesto.

Testing reference dependence, loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity in Spanish tourism

Based on Tversky and Kahneman’s Prospect Theory, we test the existence of reference dependence, loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity in Spanish tourism. To do this, we incorporate the reference-dependent model into a Multinomial Logit Model with Random Parameters -which controls for heterogeneity- and apply it to a sample of vacation choices made by Spaniards. We find that the difference between reference price and actual price is considered to make decisions, confirming that reference dependence exists; that people react more strongly to price increases than to price decreases relative to their reference price, which represents evidence in favor of the loss aversion phenomenon; and that there is diminishing sensitivity for losses only, showing convexity for these negative values.

Price sensitivity to tourism activities: looking for determinant factors

The literature contains evidence that there is a marked heterogeneity in price responses to tourism products, leading to a great variety of tourist sensitivities to price. Thus the role price plays is complex, and a particularly challenging aspect of this complexity is that its effect is not unambiguous, thereby negating the idea that the demand for tourism products and tourist activities can always be regarded as demand for ordinary goods. This article identifies and explains, as a novelty for the tourism industry, price sensitivities to tourism activities individual by individual. The operative formalization uses a mixed logit model to estimate the individual sensitivities to price, and then a regression analysis is applied to detect their determinants. The empirical application finds that motivations, influenced by age, and length of stay with a non-linear effect, are explanatory factors of tourists’ price sensitivity to activities.

Direct versus indirect channels: Differentiated loss aversion in a high‐involvement, non‐frequently purchased hedonic product

Purpose – This article aims to investigate whether intermediaries reduce loss aversion in the context of a high-involvement non-frequently purchased hedonic product (tourism packages). Design/methodology/approach – The study incorporates the reference-dependent model into a multinomial logit model with random parameters, which controls for heterogeneity and allows representation of different correlation patterns between non-independent alternatives. Findings – Differentiated loss aversion is found: consumers buying high-involvement non-frequently purchased hedonic products are less loss averse when using an intermediary than when dealing with each provider separately and booking their services independently. This result can be taken as identifying consumer-based added value provided by the intermediaries. Practical implications – Knowing the effect of an increase in their prices is crucial for tourism collective brands (e.g. “sun and sea”, “inland”, “green destinations”, “World Heritage destinations”). This is especially applicable nowadays on account of the fact that many destinations have lowered prices to attract tourists (although, in the future, they will have to put prices back up to their normal levels). The negative effect of raising prices can be absorbed more easily via indirect channels when compared to individual providers, as the influence of loss aversion is lower for the former than the latter. The key implication is that intermediaries can – and should – add value in competition with direct e-tailing. Originality/value – Research on loss aversion in retailing has been prolific, exclusively focused on low-involvement and frequently purchased products without distinguishing the direct or indirect character of the distribution channel. However, less is known about other types of products such as high-involvement non-frequently purchased hedonic products. This article focuses on the latter and analyzes different patterns of loss aversion in direct and indirect channels.

Who performs a stronger response to whom? Detecting individual competitive actions and reactions

This study analyzes the degree of competition through individual actions and reactions. Empirical support for this analysis has derived mainly from structural econometric models describing the nature of competition. This analysis extends the existing literature by empirically considering a direct measurement of competition through the analysis of the competitive actions and responses, and describing how firms compete within and between strategic groups. We estimate the firms’ conduct in the Spanish deposits market with 146 firms and 18,888 observations. This is a specially compelling context for the banking industry, in which a deregulation process gives rise to the adoption of aggressive strategies seeking to increase the market shares of deposit accounts; thus, producing a turbulent situation of increasing rivalry. Our results offer a deeper understanding of the firms’ competitive behavior, since we identify different patterns of actions and reactions depending upon the strategic group the firm belongs to.

Differentiated effect of advertising: Joint vs. separate consumption

In a context of intense competition, cooperative advertising between firms is critical. Accordingly, the objective of this article is to analyze the potential differentiated effect of advertising on two basic consumption patterns: individual products (i.e. hotel, restaurant) vs. bundle (i.e. hotel + restaurant). This research adds to the extant literature in that, for the first time, this potential differentiated effect is examined through a hierarchical modelling framework that reflects the way people make their decisions: first, they decide whether to visit or not a region; second, whether to purchase an advertised product in that region; and third, whether to buy products together or separately at the region. The empirical analysis, applied to a sample of 11,288 individuals, shows that the influence of advertising is positive for the decisions to visit and to purchase; however, when it comes to the joint or separate consumption, advertising has a differentiated effect: its impact is much greater on the joint alternative (“hotel + restaurant”) than the separate options (“hotel” and “restaurant”). Also, the variable distance moderates the advertising effect.