Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum, Part 2: feedbacks with emphasis on the location of the ITCZ and mid- and high latitudes heat budget

A set of coupled ocean-atmosphere(-vegetation) simulations using state of the art climate models is now available for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Mid-Holocene (MH) through the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2). Here we quantify the latitudinal shift of the location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the tropical regions during boreal summer and the change in precipitation in the northern part of the ITCZ. For both periods the shift is more pronounced over the continents and East Asia. The maritime continent is the region where the largest spread is found between models. We also clearly establish that the larger the increase in the meridional temperature gradient in the tropical Atlantic during summer at the MH, the larger the change in precipitation over West Africa. The vegetation feedback is however not as large as found in previous studies, probably due to model differences in the control simulation. Finally, we show that the feedback from snow and sea-ice at mid and high latitudes contributes for half of the cooling in the Northern Hemisphere for the LGM, with the remaining being achieved by the reduced CO2 and water vapour in the atmosphere. For the MH the snow and albedo feedbacks strengthen the spring cooling and enhance the boreal summer warming, whereas water vapour reinforces the late summer warming. These feedbacks are modest in the Southern Hemisphere. For the LGM most of the surface cooling is due to CO2 and water vapour.

The Solar Stormwatch CME catalogue: results from the first space weather citizen science project

Solar Stormwatch was the first space weather citizen science project, the aim of which was to identify and track coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by the Heliospheric Imagers aboard the STEREO satellites. The project has now been running for approximately 4 years, with input from >16000 citizen scientists, resulting in a dataset of >38000 time-elongation profiles of CME trajectories, observed over 18 pre-selected position angles. We present our method for reducing this data set into aCME catalogue. The resulting catalogue consists of 144 CMEs over the period January-2007 to February-2010, of which 110 were observed by STEREO-A and 77 were observed by STEREO-B. For each CME, the time-elongation profiles generated by the citizen scientists are averaged into a consensus profile along each position angle that the event was tracked. We consider this catalogue to be unique, being at present the only citizen science generated CME catalogue, tracking CMEs over an elongation range of 4 degrees out to a maximum of approximately 70 degrees. Using single spacecraft fitting techniques, we estimate the speed, direction, solar source region and latitudinal width of each CME. This shows that, at present, the Solar Stormwatch catalogue (which covers only solar minimum years) contains almost exclusively slow CMEs, with a mean speed of approximately 350 kms−1. The full catalogue is available for public access at www.met.reading.ac.uk/spate/stormwatch. This includes, for each event, the unprocessed time-elongation profiles generated by Solar Stormwatch, the consensus time-elongation profiles and a set of summary plots, as well as the estimated CME properties.

Partial spectral projected gradient method with active-set strategy for linearly constrained optimization

A method for linearly constrained optimization which modifies and generalizes recent box-constraint optimization algorithms is introduced. The new algorithm is based on a relaxed form of Spectral Projected Gradient iterations. Intercalated with these projected steps, internal iterations restricted to faces of the polytope are performed, which enhance the efficiency of the algorithm. Convergence proofs are given and numerical experiments are included and commented. Software supporting this paper is available through the Tango Project web page: http://www.ime.usp.br/similar to egbirgin/tango/.

A Gradient-Type Method For Real-Time State Estimation Of Water Distribution Networks

Drinking water distribution networks risk exposure to malicious or accidental contamination. Several levels of responses are conceivable. One of them consists to install a sensor network to monitor the system on real time. Once a contamination has been detected, this is also important to take appropriate counter-measures. In the SMaRT-OnlineWDN project, this relies on modeling to predict both hydraulics and water quality. An online model use makes identification of the contaminant source and simulation of the contaminated area possible. The objective of this paper is to present SMaRT-OnlineWDN experience and research results for hydraulic state estimation with sampling frequency of few minutes. A least squares problem with bound constraints is formulated to adjust demand class coefficient to best fit the observed values at a given time. The criterion is a Huber function to limit the influence of outliers. A Tikhonov regularization is introduced for consideration of prior information on the parameter vector. Then the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is applied that use derivative information for limiting the number of iterations. Confidence intervals for the state prediction are also given. The results are presented and discussed on real networks in France and Germany.

Decay of interspecific avian flock networks along a disturbance gradient in Amazonia

Our understanding of how anthropogenic habitat change shapes species interactions is in its infancy. This is in large part because analytical approaches such as network theory have only recently been applied to characterize complex community dynamics. Network models are a powerful tool for quantifying how ecological interactions are affected by habitat modification because they provide metrics that quantify community structure and function. Here, we examine how large-scale habitat alteration has affected ecological interactions among mixed-species flocking birds in Amazonian rainforest. These flocks provide a model system for investigating how habitat heterogeneity influences non-trophic interactions and the subsequent social structure of forest-dependent mixed-species bird flocks. We analyse 21 flock interaction networks throughout a mosaic of primary forest, fragments of varying sizes and secondary forest (SF) at the Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project in central Amazonian Brazil. Habitat type had a strong effect on network structure at the levels of both species and flock. Frequency of associations among species, as summarized by weighted degree, declined with increasing levels of forest fragmentation and SF. At the flock level, clustering coefficients and overall attendance positively correlated with mean vegetation height, indicating a strong effect of habitat structure on flock cohesion and stability. Prior research has shown that trophic interactions are often resilient to large-scale changes in habitat structure because species are ecologically redundant. By contrast, our results suggest that behavioural interactions and the structure of non-trophic networks are highly sensitive to environmental change. Thus, a more nuanced, system-by-system approach may be needed when thinking about the resiliency of ecological networks.

Stand-level patterns of carbon fluxes and partitioning in a Eucalyptus grandis plantation across a gradient of productivity, in Sao Paulo State, Brazil

Wood production represents a large but variable fraction of gross primary production (GPP) in highly productive Eucalyptus plantations. Assessing patterns of carbon (C) partitioning (C flux as a fraction of GPP) between above- and belowground components is essential to understand mechanisms driving the C budget of these plantations. Better knowledge of fluxes and partitioning to woody and non-woody tissues in response to site characteristics and resource availability could provide opportunities to increase forest productivity. Our study aimed at investigating how C allocation varied within one apparently homogeneous 90 ha stand of Eucalyptus grandis (W. Hill ex Maiden) in Southeastern Brazil. We assessed annual above-ground net primary production (ANPP: stem, leaf, and branch production) and total belowground C flux (TBCF: the sum of root production and respiration and mycorrhizal production and respiration), GPP (computed as the sum of ANPP, TBCF and estimated aboveground respiration) on 12 plots representing the gradient of productivity found within the stand. The spatial heterogeneity of topography and associated soil attributes across the stand likely explained this fertility gradient. Component fluxes of GPP and C partitioning were found to vary among plots. Stem NPP ranged from 554 g C m(-2) year(-1) on the plot with lowest GPP to 923 g C m(-2) year(-1) on the plot with highest GPP. Total belowground carbon flux ranged from 497 to 1235 g C m(-2) year(-1) and showed no relationship with ANPP or GPP. Carbon partitioning to stem NPP increased from 0.19 to 0.23, showing a positive trend of increase with GPP (R-2 = 0.29, P = 0.07). Variations in stem wood production across the gradient of productivity observed at our experimental site were a result of the variability in C partitioning to different forest system components.

Geophysical Analysis of Seasonal Montandon Gravel Ridge Water Table Fluctuation and Moisture Gradient Variation due to Storm Events

The purpose of this research project is to continue exploring the Montandon Long-Term Hydrologic Research Site(LTHR) by using multiple geophysical methods to obtain more accurate and precise information regarding subsurface hydrologic properties of a local gravel ridge,which are important to both the health of surrounding ecosystems and local agriculture. Through using non-invasive geophysical methods such as seismic refraction, Direct Current resistivity and ground penetrating radar (GPR) instead of invasive methods such as boreholedrilling which displace sediment and may alter water flow, data collection is less likely to bias the data itself. In addition to imaging the gravel ridge subsurface, another important researchpurpose is to observe how both water table elevation and the moisture gradient (moisture content of the unsaturated zone) change over a seasonal time period and directly after storm events. The combination of three types of data collection allows the strengths of each method combine together and provide a relatively strongly supported conclusions compared to previous research. Precipitation and geophysical data suggest that an overall increase in precipitation during the summer months causes a sharp decrease in subsurface resistivity within the unsaturated zone. GPR velocity data indicate significant immediate increase in moisture content within the shallow vadose zone (< 1m), suggesting that rain water was infiltrating into the shallow subsurface. Furthermore, the combination of resistivity and GPR results suggest that the decreased resistivity within the shallow layers is due to increased ion content within groundwater. This is unexpected as rainwater is assumed to have a DC resistivity value of 3.33*105 ohm-m. These results may suggest that ions within the sediment must beincorporated into the infiltrating water.

Identification of the Causative Bacteria in Musculoskeletal Infections Using 16s rDNA - Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoresis Analysis

Musculoskeletal infections are infections of the bone and surrounding tissues. They are currently diagnosed based on culture analysis, which is the gold standard for pathogen identification. However, these clinical laboratory methods are frequently inadequate for the identification of the causative agents, because a large percentage (25-50%) of confirmed musculoskeletal infections are false negatives in which no pathogen is identified in culture. My data supports these results. The goal of this project was to use PCR amplification of a portion of the 16S rRNA gene to test an alternative approach for the identification of these pathogens and to assess the diversity of the bacteria involved. The advantages of this alternative method are that it should increase sample sensitivity and the speed of detection. In addition, bacteria that are non-culturable or in low abundance can be detected using this molecular technique. However, a complication of this approach is that the majority of musculoskeletal infections are polymicrobial, which prohibits direct identification from the infected tissue by DNA sequencing of the initial 16S rDNA amplification products. One way to solve this problem is to use denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) to separate the PCR products before DNA sequencing. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) separates DNA molecules based on their melting point, which is determined by their DNA sequence. This analytical technique allows a mixture of PCR products of the same length that electrophoreses through agarose gels as one band, to be separated into different bands and then used for DNA sequence analysis. In this way, the DGGE allows for the identification of individual bacterial species in polymicrobial-infected tissue, which is critical for improving clinical outcomes. By combining the 16S rDNA amplification and the DGGE techniques together, an alternative approach for identification has been used. The 16S rRNA gene PCR-DGGE method includes several critical steps: DNA extraction from tissue biopsies, amplification of the bacterial DNA, PCR product separation by DGGE, amplification of the gel-extracted DNA, and DNA sequencing and analysis. Each step of the method was optimized to increase its sensitivity and for rapid detection of the bacteria present in human tissue samples. The limit of detection for the DNA extraction from tissue was at least 20 Staphylococcus aureus cells and the limit of detection for PCR was at least 0.05 pg of template DNA. The conditions for DGGE electrophoreses were optimized by using a double gradient of acrylamide (6 – 10%) and denaturant (30-70%), which increased the separation between distinct PCR products. The use of GelRed (Biotium) improved the DNA visualization in the DGGE gel. To recover the DNA from the DGGE gels the gel slices were excised, shredded in a bead beater, and the DNA was allowed to diffuse into sterile water overnight. The use of primers containing specific linkers allowed the entire amplified PCR product to be sequenced and then analyzed. The optimized 16S rRNA gene PCR-DGGE method was used to analyze 50 tissue biopsy samples chosen randomly from our collection. The results were compared to those of the Memorial Hermann Hospital Clinical Microbiology Laboratory for the same samples. The molecular method was congruent for 10 of the 17 (59%) culture negative tissue samples. In 7 of the 17 (41%) culture negative the molecular method identified a bacterium. The molecular method was congruent with the culture identification for 7 of the 33 (21%) positive cultured tissue samples. However, in 8 of the 33 (24%) the molecular method identified more organisms. In 13 of the 15 (87%) polymicrobial cultured tissue samples the molecular method identified at least one organism that was also identified by culture techniques. Overall, the DGGE analysis of 16S rDNA is an effective method to identify bacteria not identified by culture analysis.

XCO2 and XCH4 total column measurement during POLARSTERN cruise PS83 (ANT-XXIX/10), north-south gradient

A portable Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS), model EM27/SUN, was deployed onboard the research vessel Polarstern to measure the column-average dry air mole fractions of carbon dioxide (XCO2) and methane (XCH4) by means of direct sunlight absorption spectrometry. We report on technical developments as well as data calibration and reduction measures required to achieve the targeted accuracy of fractions of a percent in retrieved XCO2 and XCH4 while operating the instrument under field conditions onboard the moving platform during a 6-week cruise on the Atlantic from Cape Town (South Africa, 34° S, 18° E; 5 March 2014) to Bremerhaven (Germany, 54° N, 19° E; 14 April 2014). We demonstrate that our solar tracker typically achieved a tracking precision of better than 0.05° toward the center of the sun throughout the ship cruise which facilitates accurate XCO2 and XCH4 retrievals even under harsh ambient wind conditions. We define several quality filters that screen spectra, e.g., when the field of view was partially obstructed by ship structures or when the lines-of-sight crossed the ship exhaust plume. The measurements in clean oceanic air, can be used to characterize a spurious air-mass dependency. After the campaign, deployment of the spectrometer alongside the TCCON (Total Carbon Column Observing Network) instrument at Karlsruhe, Germany, allowed for determining a calibration factor that makes the entire campaign record traceable to World Meteorological Organization (WMO) standards. Comparisons to observations of the GOSAT satellite and concentration fields modeled by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) demonstrate that the observational setup is well suited to provide validation opportunities above the ocean and along interhemispheric transects.

Reefs shift from net accretion to net erosion along a natural environmental gradient

Coral reefs persist in an accretion-erosion balance and ocean acidification resulting from anthropogenic CO2 emissions threatens to shift this balance in favor of net reef erosion. Corals and calcifying algae, largely responsible for reef accretion, are vulnerable to environmental changes associated with ocean acidification, but the direct effects of lower pH on reef erosion has received less attention, particularly in the context of known drivers of bioerosion and natural variability. This study examines the balance between reef accretion and erosion along a well-characterized natural environmental gradient in Kane'ohe Bay, Hawai'i using experimental blocks of coral skeleton. Comparing before and after micro-computed tomography (µCT) scans to quantify net accretion and erosion, we show that, at the small spatial scale of this study (tens of meters), pH was a better predictor of the accretion-erosion balance than environmental drivers suggested by prior studies, including resource availability, temperature, distance from shore, or depth. In addition, this study highlights the fine-scale variation of pH in coastal systems and the importance of microhabitat variation for reef accretion and erosion processes. We demonstrate significant changes in both the mean and variance of pH on the order of meters, providing a local perspective on global increases in pCO2. Our findings suggest that increases in reef erosion, combined with expected decreases in calcification, will accelerate the shift of coral reefs to an erosion-dominated system in a high-CO2 world. This shift will make reefs increasingly susceptible to storm damage and sea-level rise, threatening the maintenance of the ecosystem services that coral reefs provide.

Effects of various pollutant mixtures on immune responses of the blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) collected at a salinity gradient in Danish coastal waters, links to supplementary material

The Baltic Sea is a semi-enclosed sea with a steady salinity gradient (3 per mil-30 per mil). Organisms have adapted to such low salinities, but are suspected to be more susceptible to stress. Within the frame of the integrated environmental monitoring BONUS + project "BEAST" the applicability of immune responses of the blue mussel was investigated in Danish coastal waters. The sampling sites were characterised by a salinity range (11-19 per mil) and different mixtures of contaminants (metals, PAHs and POPs), according to chemical analysis of mussel tissues. Variation partitioning (redundancy analysis) was applied to decompose salinity and contamination effects. The results indicated that cellular immune responses (total and differential haemocyte count, phagocytic activity and apoptosis) were mainly influenced by contaminants, whereas humoral factors (haemolytic activity) were mainly impacted by salinity. Hence, cellular immune functions may be suitable as biomarkers in monitoring programmes for the Baltic Sea and other geographic regions with salinity variances of the studied range.

Changes in coral reef communities across a natural gradient in seawater pH

Ocean acidification threatens the survival of coral reef ecosystems worldwide. The negative effects of ocean acidification observed in many laboratory experiments have been seen in studies of naturally low-pH reefs, with little evidence to date for adaptation. Recently, we reported initial data suggesting that low-pH coral communities of the Palau Rock Islands appear healthy despite the extreme conditions in which they live. Here, we build on that observation with a comprehensive statistical analysis of benthic communities across Palau's natural acidification gradient. Our analysis revealed a shift in coral community composition but no impact of acidification on coral richness, coralline algae abundance, macroalgae cover, coral calcification, or skeletal density. However, coral bioerosion increased 11-fold as pH decreased from the barrier reefs to the Rock Island bays. Indeed, a comparison of the naturally low-pH coral reef systems studied so far revealed increased bioerosion to be the only consistent feature among them, as responses varied across other indices of ecosystem health. Our results imply that whereas community responses may vary, escalation of coral reef bioerosion and acceleration of a shift from net accreting to net eroding reef structures will likely be a global signature of ocean acidification.

Metabolic rates and tissue composition of the coral Pocillopora verrucosa over 12 latitudes in the Red Sea characterized by strong temperature and nutrient gradient

Global warming was reported to cause growth reductions in tropical shallow water corals in both, cooler and warmer, regions of the coral species range. This suggests regional adaptation with less heat-tolerant populations in cooler and more thermo-tolerant populations in warmer regions. Here, we investigated seasonal changes in the in situ metabolic performance of the widely distributed hermatypic coral Pocillopora verrucosa along 12 degrees latitudes featuring a steep temperature gradient between the northern (28.5 degrees N, 21-27 degrees C) and southern (16.5 degrees N, 28-33 degrees C) reaches of the Red Sea. Surprisingly, we found little indication for regional adaptation, but strong indications for high phenotypic plasticity: Calcification rates in two seasons (winter, summer) were found to be highest at 28-29 degrees C throughout all populations independent of their geographic location. Mucus release increased with temperature and nutrient supply, both being highest in the south. Genetic characterization of the coral host revealed low inter-regional variation and differences in the Symbiodinium clade composition only at the most northern and most southern region. This suggests variable acclimatization potential to ocean warming of coral populations across the Red Sea: high acclimatization potential in northern populations, but limited ability to cope with ocean warming in southern populations already existing at the upper thermal margin for corals

Oxygen and carbon isotopic composition in Eocene and Oligocene planktonic and benthic foraminifera from DSDP sediments

Oxygen and carbon isotope ratios in Eocene and Oligocene planktonic and benthic foraminifera have been investigated from Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Ocean locations. The major changes in Eocene-Oligocene benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes were enrichment of up to 1 per mil in 18O associated with the middle/late Eocene boundary and the Eocene/Oligocene boundary at locations which range from 1- to 4-km paleodepth. Although the synchronous Eocene-Oligocene 18O enrichment began in the latest Eocene, most of the change occurred in the earliest Oligocene. The earliest Oligocene enrichment in 18O is always larger in benthic foraminifera than in surface-dwelling planktonic foraminifera, a condition that indicates a combination of deep-water cooling and increased ice volume. Planktonic foraminiferal d18O does not increase across the middle/late Eocene boundary at our one site with the most complete record (Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 363, Walvis Ridge). This pattern suggests that benthic foraminiferal d18O increased 40 m.y. ago because of increased density of deep waters, probably as a result of cooling, although glaciation cannot be ruled out without more data. Stable isotope data are averaged for late Eocene and earliest Oligocene time intervals to evaluate paleoceanographic change. Average d18O of benthic foraminifera increased by 0.64 per mil from the late Eocene to the early Oligocene d18O maximum, whereas the average increase for planktonic foraminifera was 0.52 per mil. This similarity suggests that the Eocene/Oligocene boundary d18O increase was caused primarily by increased continental glaciation, coupled with deep sea cooling by as much as 2°C at some sites. Average d18O of surface-dwelling planktonic foraminifera from 14 upper Eocene and 17 lower Oligocene locations, when plotted versus paleo-latitude, reveals no change in the latitudinal d18O gradient. The Oligocene data are offset by ~0.45 per mil, also believed to reflect increased continental glaciation. At present, there are too few deep sea sequences from high latitude locations to resolve an increase in the oceanic temperature gradient from Eocene to Oligocene time using oxygen isotopes.

Seaweed fails to prevent ocean acidification impact on foraminifera along a shallow-water CO2 gradient

Ocean acidification causes biodiversity loss, alters ecosystems, and may impact food security, as shells of small organisms dissolve easily in corrosive waters. There is a suggestion that photosynthetic organisms could mitigate ocean acidification on a local scale, through seagrass protection or seaweed cultivation, as net ecosystem organic production raises the saturation state of calcium carbonate making seawater less corrosive. Here, we used a natural gradient in calcium carbonate saturation, caused by shallow-water CO2 seeps in the Mediterranean Sea, to assess whether seaweed that is resistant to acidification (Padina pavonica) could prevent adverse effects of acidification on epiphytic foraminifera. We found a reduction in the number of species of foraminifera as calcium carbonate saturation state fell and that the assemblage shifted from one dominated by calcareous species at reference sites (pH 8.19) to one dominated by agglutinated foraminifera at elevated levels of CO2 (pH 7.71). It is expected that ocean acidification will result in changes in foraminiferal assemblage composition and agglutinated forms may become more prevalent. Although Padina did not prevent adverse effects of ocean acidification, high biomass stands of seagrass or seaweed farms might be more successful in protecting epiphytic foraminifera.