Earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard analysis: some insights on the testing phase and the modeling

This thesis is divided in three chapters. In the first chapter we analyse the results of the world forecasting experiment run by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). We take the opportunity of this experiment to contribute to the definition of a more robust and reliable statistical procedure to evaluate earthquake forecasting models. We first present the models and the target earthquakes to be forecast. Then we explain the consistency and comparison tests that are used in CSEP experiments to evaluate the performance of the models. Introducing a methodology to create ensemble forecasting models, we show that models, when properly combined, are almost always better performing that any single model. In the second chapter we discuss in depth one of the basic features of PSHA: the declustering of the seismicity rates. We first introduce the Cornell-McGuire method for PSHA and we present the different motivations that stand behind the need of declustering seismic catalogs. Using a theorem of the modern probability (Le Cam's theorem) we show that the declustering is not necessary to obtain a Poissonian behaviour of the exceedances that is usually considered fundamental to transform exceedance rates in exceedance probabilities in the PSHA framework. We present a method to correct PSHA for declustering, building a more realistic PSHA. In the last chapter we explore the methods that are commonly used to take into account the epistemic uncertainty in PSHA. The most widely used method is the logic tree that stands at the basis of the most advanced seismic hazard maps. We illustrate the probabilistic structure of the logic tree, and then we show that this structure is not adequate to describe the epistemic uncertainty. We then propose a new probabilistic framework based on the ensemble modelling that properly accounts for epistemic uncertainties in PSHA.

How Much Is Enough? an Analysis of the 5' Nontranslated Region of the Deformed Wing Virus in Honeybees

Honeybees are an essential component of today¿s agricultural system because of their role as pollinators. However, viruses, including a member of the Picornavirales order known commonly as Deformed Wing Virus (DWV), are compromising the health of honeybee colonies. Many picornaviruses, such as poliovirus, have been studied in depth because of their relation to human disease, but also because of their use of an Internal Ribosome Entry Site (IRES) to initiate translation. The primary goal of this thesis was to determine if the 5¿ Non-Translated Region (NTR) of Deformed Wing Virus (DWV) functions as an IRES. A secondary goal was to determine if there are specific parts of that 5¿ NTR that are important to IRES function. Six plasmids were constructed by inserting three different sections of the 5¿ NTR of DWV, in both sense and antisense directions, between two reporter genes. These plasmids, along with several control plasmids, were transfected into Sf9 cells, and post-transfection luciferase assays were conducted. Results were inconclusive. This could have been due to an inability of the plasmids to be expressed in Sf9 cells, an error in the construction of the plasmids, or a mechanical error in the assay procedure. At this time it appears most likely that the 5¿ NTR of DWV may be cell-type or species specific, and the next step would be to transfect the plasmids into a recently developed cultured honeybee cell line.

Index-Oriented Methodologies for Landslide Consequence Analysis: An Application to a Mountain Community in the French Alps

Consequence analysis is a key aspect of anchoring assessment of landslide impacts to present and long-term development planning. Although several approaches have been developed over the last decade, some of them are difficult to apply in practice, mainly because of the lack of valuable data on historical damages or on damage functions. In this paper, two possible consequence indicators based on a combination of descriptors of the exposure of the elements at risk are proposed in order to map the potential impacts of landslides and highlight the most vulnerable areas. The first index maps the physical vulnerability due to landslide; the second index maps both direct damage (physical, structural, functional) and indirect damage (socio-economic impacts) of landslide hazards. The indexes have been computed for the 200 km2 area of the Barcelonnette Basin (South French Alps), and their potential applications are discussed.

Pulmonary lymphangioleiomyomatosis: analysis of disease manifestation by region-based quantification of lung parenchyma

PURPOSE Lymphangioleiomyomatosis (LAM) is characterized by proliferation of smooth muscle tissue that causes bronchial obstruction and secondary cystic destruction of lung parenchyma. The aim of this study was to evaluate the typical distribution of cystic defects in LAM with quantitative volumetric chest computed tomography (CT). MATERIALS AND METHODS CT examinations of 20 patients with confirmed LAM were evaluated with region-based quantification of lung parenchyma. Additionally, 10 consecutive patients were identified who had recently undergone CT imaging of the lung at our institution, in which no pathologies of the lung were found, to serve as a control group. Each lung was divided into three regions (upper, middle and lower thirds) with identical number of slices. In addition, we defined a "peel" and "core" of the lung comprising the 2 cm subpleural space and the remaining inner lung area. Computerized detection of lung volume and relative emphysema was performed with the PULMO 3D software (v3.42, Fraunhofer MEVIS, Bremen, Germany). This software package enables the quantification of emphysematous lung parenchyma by calculating the pixel index, which is defined as the ratio of lung voxels with a density <-950HU to the total number of voxels in the lung. RESULTS Cystic changes accounted for 0.1-39.1% of the total lung volume in patients with LAM. Disease manifestation in the central lung was significantly higher than in peripheral areas (peel median: 15.1%, core median: 20.5%; p=0.001). Lower thirds of lung parenchyma showed significantly less cystic changes than upper and middle lung areas combined (lower third: median 13.4, upper and middle thirds: median 19.0, p=0.001). CONCLUSION The distribution of cystic lesions in LAM is significantly more pronounced in the central lung compared to peripheral areas. There is a significant predominance of cystic changes in apical and intermediate lung zones compared to the lung bases.

An analysis of the function of region 1.2 of the primary sigma factor, sigma 70, from Escherichia coli

The sigma (σ) subunit of eubacterial RNA polymerase is required for recognition of and transcription initiation from promoter DNA sequences. One family of sigma factors includes those related to the primary sigma factor from E. coli, σ70. Members of the σ70 family have four highly conserved domains, of which regions 2 through 4 are present in all members. Region 1 can be subdivided into regions 1.1 and 1.2. Region 1.1 affects DNA binding by σ 70 alone, as well as transcription initiation by holoenzyme. Region 1.2, present and highly conserved in most sigma factors, has not yet been assigned a putative function, although previous work demonstrated that it is not required for either association with the core subunits of RNA polymerase or promoter specific binding by holoenzyme. This study primarily investigates the functional role of region 1.2 during transcription initiation. In vivo and in vitro characterization of thirty-two single amino acid substitutions targeted to region 1.2 of E. coli σ70 as well as a deletion of region 1.2, revealed that mutations in region 1.2 can affect promoter binding, open complex formation, initiated complex formation, and the transition from abortive transcription to elongation. The relative degree of solvent exposure of several positions in region 1.2 has been determined, with positions 116 and 122 likely to be located near the surface of σ70. ^ During the course of this study, the existence of two “wild type” variants of E. coli σ70 was discovered. The identity of amino acid 149 has been reported variably as either arginine or aspartic acid in published articles and in online databases. In vivo and in vitro characterization of the two reported variations of E. coli σ70 (N149 and D149) has determined that the two variants are functionally equivalent. However, in vivo and in vitro characterization of single amino acid substitutions and a region 1.2 deletion in the context of each variant background revealed that the behavior of some mutations are greatly affected by the identity of amino acid 149. ^

Production Networks and Spatial Economic Interdependence: An International Input-Output Analysis of the Asia-Pacific Region

The Asia-Pacific Region has enjoyed remarkable economic growth in the last three decades. This rapid economic growth can be partially attributed to the global spread of production networks, which has brought about major changes in spatial interdependence among economies within the region. By applying an Input-Output based spatial decomposition technique to the Asian International Input-Output Tables for 1985 and 2000, this paper not only analyzes the intrinsic mechanism of spatial economic interdependence, but also shows how value added, employment and CO2 emissions induced are distributed within the international production networks.

How has financial deepening affected poverty reduction in India? : empirical analysis using state-level panel data

This paper examines empirically whether financial deepening has contributed to poverty reduction in India. Using unbalanced panel data for 28 states and union territories between 1973 and 2004, we estimate models in which the poverty ratio is explained by financial deepening, controlling for international openness, inflation rate, and economic growth. From the dynamic generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation, we find that financial deepening and economic growth alleviate poverty, while international openness and the inflation rate have the opposite effect. These results are robust to changes in the poverty ratios in rural areas, urban areas, and the whole economy.

Morphology and distribution of volcanic bombs in Caldera Quemada de Arriba (Lanzarote, Canary Islands): implications for volcanic hazard analysis

Análisis del riesgo volcánico. We show the preliminary results of the study of 561 volcanic bombs ejected from a pyroclastic cone during the 1730-1736 Timanfaya eruption (Lanzarote, Canary Islands). This cone displays the highest concentration of big bombs (major axis higher than 1 m) of Timanfaya. More than 560 bombs have been studied to calculate their reach. The results suggest that bombs of 1t have a reach of 409 m, while bombs up to 28 t have a reach of 248 m. These data may be used to define a security area once a vent has been opened, but also to calculate other data such the initial velocity of ejection. The geomorphological analysis and the study of the deposits also contribute to better understand an undocumented episode of the Timanfaya eruption and also provide important data for volcanic bombs modeling for volcanic hazard analysis.

Dendrogeomorphological research applied to flood hazard analysis in the Caldera de Taburiente National Park (La Palma, Canary Islands, Spain).

Se ha realizado un estudio dendrogeomorfológico utilizando las heridas de los árboles como indicadores de paleoinundaciones.

Recent advances on dendrogeomorphological research applied to flood hazard analysis in Spain.

Estudios dendroecológicos para el análisis de regímentes torrenciales y avenidas

Flood Hazard Analysis in the ”Caldera de Taburiente” National Park (La Palma, Canary Islands, Spain) using Dendrogeomorphology

Aplicación de técnicas dendroecológicas para el estudio de avenidas torrenciales.

System theory based hazard analysis applied to the process industry

Chemical process accidents still occur and cost billions of dollars and, what is worse, many human lives. That means that traditional hazard analysis techniques are not enough mainly owing to the increase of complexity and size of chemical plants. In the last years, a new hazard analysis technique has been developed, changing the focus from reliability to system theory and showing promising results in other industries such as aeronautical and nuclear. In this paper, we present an approach for the application of STAMP and STPA analysis developed by Leveson in 2011 to the process industry.

In vivo analysis of the 3′ untranslated region of the hepatitis C virus after in vitro mutagenesis of an infectious cDNA clone

Large sections of the 3′ untranslated region (UTR) of hepatitis C virus (HCV) were deleted from an infectious cDNA clone, and the RNA transcripts from seven deletion mutants were tested sequentially for infectivity in a chimpanzee. Mutants lacking all or part of the 3′ terminal conserved region or the poly(U–UC) region were unable to infect the chimpanzee, indicating that both regions are critical for infectivity in vivo. However, the third region, the variable region, was able to tolerate a deletion that destroyed the two putative stem–loop structures within this region. Mutant VR-24 containing a deletion of the proximal 24 nt of the variable region of the 3′ UTR was viable in the chimpanzee and seemed to replicate as well as the undeleted parent virus. The chimpanzee became viremic 1 week after inoculation with mutant VR-24, and the HCV genome titer increased over time during the early acute infection. Therefore, the poly(U–UC) region and the conserved region, but not the variable region, of the 3′ UTR seem to be critical for in vivo infectivity of HCV.