Essays in heterogeneous agent macroeconomics

This thesis is comprised of three chapters. The first article studies the determinants of the labor force participation of elderly American males and investigates the factors that may account for the changes in retirement between 1950 and 2000. We develop a life-cycle general equilibrium model with endogenous retirement that embeds Social Security legislation and Medicare. Individuals are ex ante heterogeneous with respect to their preferences for leisure and face uncertainty about labor productivity, health status and out-of-pocket medical expenses. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy in 2000 and is able to reproduce very closely the retirement behavior of the American population. It reproduces the peaks in the distribution of Social Security applications at ages 62 and 65 and the observed facts that low earners and unhealthy individuals retire earlier. It also matches very closely the increase in retirement from 1950 to 2000. Changes in Social Security policy - which became much more generous - and the introduction of Medicare account for most of the expansion of retirement. In contrast, the isolated impact of the increase in longevity was a delaying of retirement. In the second article, I develop an overlapping generations model of criminal behavior, which extends prior research on crime by taking into account individuals' labor supply decisions and the stigma effect that affects convicted offenders, lowering their likelihood of employment. I use the model to guide a quantitative assessment of the determinants of crime and of a counterfactual experiment in which an income redistribution policy is thought as an alternative to greater law enforcement. The model economy considered in this paper is populated by heterogeneous agents who live for a realistic number of periods, have preferences over consumption and leisure, and differ in terms of their age, their skills as well as their employment shocks. In addition, savings may be precautionary and allow partial insurance against the labor income shocks. Because of the lack of full insurance, this model generates an endogenous distribution of wealth across consumers, enabling us to assess the welfare implications of the redistribution policy experiment. I calibrated the model using the US data for 1980 and then use the model to investigate the changes in criminality between 1980 and 1996. The main results that come out of this study are: 1) Law enforcement policy was the most important factor behind the fall in criminality in the period, while the increase in inequality was the most important single factor promoting crime; 2) Stigmatization is not a free-cost crime control policy; 3) Income redistribution can be a powerful alternative policy to fight crime. Finally, the third article studies the impact of HIV/AIDS on per capita income and education. It explores two channels from HIV/AIDS to income that have not been sufficiently stressed by the literature: the reduction of the incentives to study due to shorter expected longevity and the reduction of productivity of experienced workers. In the model individuals live for three periods, may get infected in the second period and with some probability die of Aids before reaching the third period of their life. Parents care for the welfare of the future generations so that they will maximize lifetime utility of their dynasty. The simulations predict that the most affected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa will be in the future, on average, thirty percent poorer than they would be without AIDS. Schooling will decline in some cases by forty percent. These figures are dramatically reduced with widespread medical treatment, as it increases the survival probability and productivity of infected individuals.

Essays on structural transformation, growth and education

This thesis aims to study the impact of structural change on the trajectory of development of emerging economies. More speci cally, we seek to understand how the reallocation of labor from less productive sectors of the economy (e.g., agriculture) to more productive sectors (e.g., industry and services) contributed to the growth of labor productivity in these economies. The thesis is divided into three chapters, besides the introduction. The rst chapter studies the relationship between structural change and economic development in Latin American economies. While the process of reallocation of labor was important to the dynamics of productivity in the period of convergence of these economies, low productivity in some sectors of the economy explained most of the reduction in productivity in the most recent period. In the second chapter, I study the main determinants of growth of the Chinese economy between 1980 and 2005. I show that the increased ow of trade and strong productivity growth in the agricultural sector contributed signi -cantly to China s development in the period. In the third chapter, I study the apparent contradiction between increased levels of schooling and reduction of per capita income in African economies compared to the U.S. economy. The main conclusion is that reducing educational costs explain the retreat of the education di¤erential between African economies and the United States.

Sustainable miracles : protection and competition in the Brazilian oil industry

It is often suggested that competition improves productivity, however, the underlying support for this idea is surprisingly thin. This paper presents a case study examining the e ects of a change in the competitive environment on productivity at the Petrobras, Brazil's state-owned oil company. Petrobras had a legal monopoly on production, re ning, transportation and importation of oil in Brazil until it was removed in 1995. Even though Petrobras continues to have a de facto monopoly, the end of legal monopoly labor productivity growth rate more than doubled. A growth accounting of the industry shows that between 1977 and 1993 output growth rate (and productivity growth rate) is explained by the accumulation of capital, while Total Factor Productivity (TFP) decreased. Between 1994 and 2000 labor productivity growth rate is completely explained by the growth rate of TFP. The results suggest that the threat of competition alone is su cient to improve productivity. They also provide evidence that restricting competition help cause Brazil's depression of the 1980s.

Work and technological innovation in organic agriculture

Organic agriculture is a sustainable cultivation ecologically, economically and socially. Several researches in organic agriculture have been made from technical perspectives, economic traits or related to ecological aspects. There are practically no investigations into the nature of the technology used in organic agriculture, especially from an ergonomic perspective. From the activity analysis, this study aimed to map the technology used in the production of organic vegetables. Properties producing organic vegetables were selected representing the State of São Paulo. It was applied an instrument (questionnaire and semi-structured interview) with their managers and it was made visual records to identify adaptations, innovations and technological demands that simultaneously minimize the workload and the difficulties in performing the tasks and increase work productivity. For some of the technological innovations a digital scanner was used to generate a virtual solid model to facilitate its redesign and virtual prototyping. The main results show that organic farmers have little technology in product form. The main innovations that enable competitive advantage or allow higher labor productivity occur in the form of processes, organization and marketing.

Growth versus development: different patterns of industrial growth in Latin America during the 'boom' years

Includes bibliography

El debate sobre el sector agropecuario mexicano en el Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte

Incluye Bibliografía

Weak expansions: a distinctive feature of the business cycle in Latin America and the Caribbean

Using two standard cycle methodologies (Classical and Deviation Cycle) and a comprehensive sample of 83 countries worldwide, including all developing regions, we show that the Latin American and Caribbean cycle exhibits two distinctive features. First, and most importantly, its expansion performance is shorter and for the most par less imtense than that of the rest of the regions considered, and in particular than that of East Asia and the Pacific, East Asia and the Pacific's expansions last five years longer than those of LAC, and its output gain is 50% greater than that of LAC. Second, LAC tends to exhibit contractions that are not significantly different in terms of duration and amplitude than t those of other regions. Both these features imply that the complete Latin American and Caribbean cycle has, overall, the shortest duration and smallest amplitude in relation to other regions. The specificities of the Latin American and Caribbean cycle are not confined to the short run. These are also reflected in variables such as productivity and investment, which are linked to long-run growth. East Asia and the Pacific's cumulative gain in labor productivity during the expansionary phase is twice that of LAC. Moreover, the evidence also shows that the effects of the contraction in public investment surpass those of the expansion leading to a declining trend over the entire cycle. In this sense we suggest that policy analysis needs to increase its focus on the expansionary phase of the cycle. Improving our knowledge of the differences in the expansionary dynamics of countries and regions, can further our understanding of the differences in their rates of growth and levels of development. We also suggest that while, the management of the cycle affects the short-run fluctuations of economic activity and hence volatility, it is not trend neutral. Hence, the effects of aggregate demand management policies may be more persistent over time and less transitory than currently thought.

México: crecimiento agropecuario, TLCAN, capital humano y gestión del riesgo: indicadores estadísticos agropecuarios

Incluye Bibliografía

Structural change in four Latin American countries: An international perspective

Incluye bibliografía.

Economic and Social Upgrading: Definitions, connections and exploring means of measurement

This paper reviews and synthesizes the literature on social upgrading, while exploring its connections with economic upgrading. Using the parsimonious method proposed by Bernhardt and Milberg and an alternative method that takes into account increases in national productivity, this paper analyzes the case of Mexico. Though the proposed approach to social upgrading can be made more sophisticated through the inclusion of more variables, in order to facilitate the replication of the analysis in developing countries where data are scarce, labor productivity, wages and employment were considered sufficient information to analyze economic and social upgrading.

A consolidação da formação do professor-pesquisador da Pós-Graduação em Educação da UFPA: o(s) produto(s) científico(s) em foco

Este estudo cujo tema perpassa o campo da Educação Superior teve a tarefa de dissertar sobre o objeto a consolidação da formação do professor-pesquisador da Pós-Graduação em Educação da UFPA, que traduziu uma inquietação epistemológica em compreender a ação educativa desenvolvida no espaço pós-graduado e que atualmente vem se desenvolvendo pela relação entre pesquisa-trabalho-produtividade que encontra suas raízes ainda na gênese da Pós-Graduação no Brasil na década de 60. O objetivo geral foi analisar o trabalho docente do professor-pesquisador da Pós-Graduação em Educação da Universidade Federal do Pará – UFPA, a partir do processo de consolidação da sua formação pós-graduada, e os específicos que incidiram nos cinco capítulos da Dissertação, a saber: identificar os aspectos legais e epistemológicos que dão voz ao trabalho docente no Ensino Superior tendo como elo o conceito de professor-pesquisador; verificar os dispositivos institucionais que regulam o trabalho docente na Pós-Graduação; analisar o processo de consolidação da formação dos professores-pesquisadores da Pós-Graduação em Educação da UFPA; examinar o nível de produtividade científica dos professores-pesquisadores da Pós-Graduação em Educação da UFPA e; observar como o trabalho docente desses pesquisadores vem sendo avaliado pela Comissão Externa de Avaliação da CAPES. Dedicando-se a seguinte problematização: Como o trabalho do professor-pesquisador se constitui após o processo de consolidação da sua formação pós-graduada? A qual desencadeou as questões-problemas discutidas em cada capítulo: De que modo o trabalho docente desenvolvido no Ensino Superior vem se caracterizando dentro da abordagem epistemológica que envolve o conceito de professor-pesquisador? Em que medida os aspectos institucionais configuram a atividade docente desenvolvida na Pós-Graduação, particularmente no Instituto de Ciências da Educação da UFPA? O que revela a introdução das teses de doutoramento dos professores-pesquisadores? Como a produtividade científica desses professores-pesquisadores vem se constituindo dentro do Currículo Lattes? Como a CAPES avaliou o trabalho docente na Pós-Graduação em Educação da UFPA no lapso temporal de 2003 a 2010? Dada as questões, o estudo foi construído sob uma abordagem teórico-metodológica ancorada no enfoque histórico-educativo, neste momento autores como Carvalho (2003) e Lombardi (2004) compuseram o diálogo necessário para justificar a opção que desencadeou também na escolha das cinco fontes históricas examinadas no estudo, as bibliográficas sobre a epistemologia do professor-pesquisador, as prescrições oficiais, as introduções das teses de Doutorado do atual corpo docente do PPGED da UFPA, os currículos lattes desses sujeitos e por último, as fichas de avaliação da CAPES aplicadas ao PPGED nos anos de 2004 e 2007 referentes à avaliação trienal coordenada pelo Órgão. Tratou-se de um estudo de caso instrumental interessado em compreender a ação educativa no espaço pós-graduado, tendo como lapso temporal os anos de 2003 a 2010. Dentre os resultados alcançados, concluiu-se, principalmente, que a consolidação do professor-pesquisador tem na etapa de conclusão do Doutorado a consolidação da formação pós-graduada, logo do ponto de partida, uma vez que é na experiência construída no trabalho docente, no ambiente pós-graduado em seu contato com os diferentes processos investigativos que cercam esse campo de significados e contradições que o professor consolida de fato sua atividade investigativa.

Fatores de risco relacionados à perda de produtividade laboral e aumento dos custos ambulatoriais de pacientes atendidos por unidades básicas de saúde

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Work and technological innovation in organic agriculture

Organic agriculture is a sustainable cultivation ecologically, economically and socially. Several researches in organic agriculture have been made from technical perspectives, economic traits or related to ecological aspects. There are practically no investigations into the nature of the technology used in organic agriculture, especially from an ergonomic perspective. From the activity analysis, this study aimed to map the technology used in the production of organic vegetables. Properties producing organic vegetables were selected representing the State of Sao Paulo. It was applied an instrument (questionnaire and semi-structured interview) with their managers and it was made visual records to identify adaptations, innovations and technological demands that simultaneously minimize the workload and the difficulties in performing the tasks and increase work productivity. For some of the technological innovations a digital scanner was used to generate a virtual solid model to facilitate its redesign and virtual prototyping. The main results show that organic farmers have little technology in product form. The main innovations that enable competitive advantage or allow higher labor productivity occur in the form of processes, organization and marketing.

Analogous Cycles with Lagged Co-movement: U.S. and East Asian Business Cycles

In selected East Asian economies, the behavior of detrended macroeconomic variables was found to be similar to that observed in the postwar U.S. economy. Consumption and investment are highly procyclical while the balance of trade and the price level are counter-cyclical in most of them. Labor productivity is procyclical in general. The high coherence between U.S. GDP and that of the East Asian economies suggests that business cycles in terms of frequency are also similar between the United States and East Asia. However, the GDP and consumption of East Asian countries do not necessarily co-move well with current U.S. and Japanese GDP and consumption, while East Asian consumption tends to co-move more with lagged U.S. and Japanese consumption.