Tracking Invasion Histories in the Sea: Facing Complex Scenarios Using Multilocus Data

In recent years, new analytical tools have allowed researchers to extract historical information contained in molecular data, which has fundamentally transformed our understanding of processes ruling biological invasions. However, the use of these new analytical tools has been largely restricted to studies of terrestrial organisms despite the growing recognition that the sea contains ecosystems that are amongst the most heavily affected by biological invasions, and that marine invasion histories are often remarkably complex. Here, we studied the routes of invasion and colonisation histories of an invasive marine invertebrate Microcosmus squamiger (Ascidiacea) using microsatellite loci, mitochondrial DNA sequence data and 11 worldwide populations. Discriminant analysis of principal components, clustering methods and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods showed that the most likely source of the introduced populations was a single admixture event that involved populations from two genetically differentiated ancestral regions - the western and eastern coasts of Australia. The ABC analyses revealed that colonisation of the introduced range of M. squamiger consisted of a series of non-independent introductions along the coastlines of Africa, North America and Europe. Furthermore, we inferred that the sequence of colonisation across continents was in line with historical taxonomic records - first the Mediterranean Sea and South Africa from an unsampled ancestral population, followed by sequential introductions in California and, more recently, the NE Atlantic Ocean. We revealed the most likely invasion history for world populations of M. squamiger, which is broadly characterized by the presence of multiple ancestral sources and non-independent introductions within the introduced range. The results presented here illustrate the complexity of marine invasion routes and identify a cause-effect relationship between human-mediated transport and the success of widespread marine non-indigenous species, which benefit from stepping-stone invasions and admixture processes involving different sources for the spread and expansion of their range.

Predicting the future effectiveness of protected areas for bird conservation in Mediterranean ecosystems under climate change and novel fire regime scenarios

AimGlobal environmental changes challenge traditional conservation approaches based on the selection of static protected areas due to their limited ability to deal with the dynamic nature of driving forces relevant to biodiversity. The Natura 2000 network (N2000) constitutes a major milestone in biodiversity conservation in Europe, but the degree to which this static network will be able to reach its long-term conservation objectives raises concern. We assessed the changes in the effectiveness of N2000 in a Mediterranean ecosystem between 2000 and 2050 under different combinations of climate and land cover change scenarios. LocationCatalonia, Spain. MethodsPotential distribution changes of several terrestrial bird species of conservation interest included in the European Union's Birds Directive were predicted within an ensemble-forecasting framework that hierarchically integrated climate change and land cover change scenarios. Land cover changes were simulated using a spatially explicit fire-succession model that integrates fire management strategies and vegetation encroachment after the abandonment of cultivated areas as the main drivers of landscape dynamics in Mediterranean ecosystems. ResultsOur results suggest that the amount of suitable habitats for the target species will strongly decrease both inside and outside N2000. However, the effectiveness of N2000 is expected to increase in the next decades because the amount of suitable habitats is predicted to decrease less inside than outside this network. Main conclusionsSuch predictions shed light on the key role that the current N2000may play in the near future and emphasize the need for an integrative conservation perspective wherein agricultural, forest and fire management policies should be considered to effectively preserve key habitats for threatened birds in fire-prone, highly dynamic Mediterranean ecosystems. Results also show the importance of considering landscape dynamics and the synergies between different driving forces when assessing the long-term effectiveness of protected areas for biodiversity conservation.

Towards automated specifications of scenarios in enhanced learning technology

Recent standardization efforts in e-learning technology have resulted in a number of specifications, however, the automation process that is considered essential in a learning management system (LMS) is a lessexplored one. As learning technology becomes more widespread and more heterogeneous, there is a growing need to specify processes that cross the boundaries of a single LMS or learning resource repository. This article proposes to obtain a specification orientated to automation that takes on board the heterogeneity of systems and formats and provides a language for specifying complex and generic interactions. Having this goal in mind, a technique based on three steps is suggested. The semantic conformance profiles, the business process management (BPM) diagram, and its translation into the business process execution language (BPEL) seem to be suitable for achieving it.

An ontology to automated learning scenarios? an approach to its knowledge domain

Automation or semi-automation of learning scenariospecifications is one of the least exploredsubjects in the e-learning research area. There isa need for a catalogue of learning scenarios and atechnique to facilitate automated retrieval of stored specifications. This requires constructing anontology with this goal and is justified inthis paper. This ontology must mainlysupport a specification technique for learning scenarios. This ontology should also be useful in the creation and validation of new scenarios as well as in the personalization of learning scenarios or their monitoring. Thus, after justifying the need for this ontology, a first approach of a possible knowledge domain is presented. An example of a concrete learning scenario illustrates some relevant concepts supported by this ontology in order to define the scenario in such a way that it could be easy to automate.

A catalogue of Primitive Scenario-Types : The First Step to the Automation of Learning Scenarios

Peer-reviewed

Metadata for describing learning scenarios under European Higher Education Area paradigm

In this paper we identify the requirements for creating formal descriptions of learning scenarios designed under the European HigherEducation Area paradigm, using competences and learning activities as the basic pieces of the learning process, instead of contents and learning resources, pursuing personalization. Classical arrangements of content based courses are no longer enough to describe all the richness of this new learning process, where user profiles, competences and complex hierarchical itineraries need to be properly combined. We study the intersection with the current IMS Learning Design specification and theadditional metadata required for describing such learning scenarios. This new approach involves the use of case based learning and collaborativelearning in order to acquire and develop competences, following adaptive learning paths in two structured levels.

Analyzing and supporting interaction in complex scenarios: the case of DS106

DS106 promotes learners to build a digital identity + personal infrastructure, but how can be the global course infrastructure be improved?

Cue-elicited anxiety and craving for food using virtual reality scenarios

Cue exposure therapy has been reported to be an effective intervention for reducing binge eating behavior in patients with eating disorders and obesity. However, in vivo food exposure conducted in the therapist's office presents logistical problems and lacks ecological validity. This study proposes the use of virtual reality technology as an alternative to in vivo exposure, and assesses the ability of different virtual environments to elicit anxiety and craving for food in a non-clinical sample. The results show that exposure to virtual environments provokes changes in reported craving for food. High-calorie food cues are the ones that elicit the highest increases in craving.

Engendering Group Support Based Foresight for Capital Intensive Manufacturing Industries - Case Paper and Steel Industry Scenarios by 2018

In recent times of global turmoil, the need for uncertainty management has become ever momentous. The need for enhanced foresight especially concerns capital-intensive industries, which need to commit their resources and assets with long-term planning horizons. Scenario planning has been acknowledged to have many virtues - and limitations - concerning the mapping of the future and illustrating the alternative development paths. The present study has been initiated to address both the need of improved foresight in two capital-intensive industries, i.e. the paper and steel industries and the imperfections in the current scenario practice. The research problem has been approached by engendering a problem-solving vehicle, which combines, e.g. elements of generic scenario process, face-to-face group support methods, deductive scenario reasoning and causal mapping into a fully integrated scenario process. The process, called the SAGES scenario framework, has been empirically tested by creating alternative futures for two capital-intensive industries, i.e. the paper and steel industries. Three scenarios for each industry have been engendered together with the identification of the key megatrends, the most important foreign investment determinants, key future drivers and leading indicators for the materialisation of the scenarios. The empirical results revealed a two-fold outlook for the paper industry, while the steel industry future was seen as much more positive. The research found support for utilising group support systems in scenario and strategic planning context with some limitations. Key perceived benefits include high time-efficiency, productivity and lower resource-intensiveness. Group support also seems to enhance participant satisfaction, encourage innovative thinking and provide the users with personalised qualitative scenarios.

Can salvage logging affect seed dispersal by birds into burned forests?

The recovery of vegetation in Mediterranean ecosystems after wildfire is mostly a result of direct regeneration, since the same species existing before the fire regenerate on-site by seeding or resprouting. However, the possibility of plant colonization by dispersal of seeds from unburned areas remains poorly studied. We addressed the role of the frugivorous, bird-dependent seed dispersal (seed rain) of fleshy-fruited plants in a burned and managed forest in the second winter after a fire, before on-site fruit production had begun. We also assessed the effect on seed rain of different microhabitats resulting from salvage logging (erosion barriers, standing snags, open areas), as well as the microhabitats of unlogged patches and an unburned control forest, taking account of the importance of perches as seed rain sites. We found considerable seed rain by birds in the burned area. Seeds, mostly from Olive trees Olea europaea and Evergreen pistaches Pistacia lentiscus, belonged to plants fruiting only in surrounding unburned areas. Seed rain was heterogeneous, and depended on microhabitat, with the highest seed density in the unburned control forest but closely followed by the wood piles of erosion barriers. In contrast, very low densities were found under perches of standing snags. Furthermore, frugivorous bird richness seemed to be higher in the erosion barriers than elsewhere. Our results highlight the importance of this specific post-fire management in bird-dependent seed rain and also may suggest a consequent heterogeneous distribution of fleshy-fruited plants in burned and managed areas. However, there needs to be more study of the establishment success of dispersed seeds before an accurate assessment can be made of the role of bird-mediated seed dispersal in post-fire regeneration

The purpose and use of passenger ships in 2058 - Future scenarios generated by the Delphi method

The purpose of the thesis is to generate scenarios of future purposes and of use of ships, suitable for STX Finland Cruise Oy to design and build, over a 50 year time span by applying the Delphi method and an open innovation approach in a future workshop. The scenarios were mapped out with help of two Delphi survey rounds and one future workshop. The number of participants in both surveys and the workshop was some twenty experts in each, representing various fields. On the basis of the first survey round, four different subject areas were selected for analysis: purposes for the use of ships; energy efficiency of cruises and ships; cost efficiency of sea transportation and vacation; and the views and expectations of the customers in the future. As a result of the future workshop, four different themes were established, which were studied further during the second Delphi round. The themes are future service and operation concepts; versatile uses of the space in ships; communication of environmental benefits of ships, future energy solutions and social interaction between passengers onboard. In addition to generating the scenarios, further aim of the thesis is to implement the Delphi method and workshop activity as foresight tools for STX Europe and to produce a chart of a future shipbuilding foresight community to can serve the open innovation processes in the maritime cluster as a whole.