Individual trade-offs between nutrition and risk of interspecific transmission of disease by grazing: cows, badger latrines and bovine tuberculosis

1. We examine whether various measures of herbivore current physiological state (age, breeding and immune status) and genetic potential can be used as indicators of exposure to and risk from disease. We use dairy cattle and the risks of tuberculosis (TB) transmission posed to them by pasture contaminated with badger excreta (via the fecal-oral route) as a model system to address our aim.

Solving exchange rate puzzles with neither sticky prices nor trade costs

We present a simple framework in which both the exchange rate disconnect and forward bias puzzles are simultaneously resolved. The flexible-price two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. Habitpersistence is modeled using Campbell Cochrane preferences with ‘deep’ habits along the lines of the work of Ravn, Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe. By deep habits, we mean habits defined over goods rather than countries. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology. It offers a neo-classical explanation of the Meese–Rogoff puzzle and mimics the failure of fundamentals to explain nominal exchange rates in a linear setting. Finally, the model naturally generates the negative slope in the standard forward market regression.

Costs of resistance: genetic correlations and potential trade-offs in an insect immune system

Theory predicts that natural selection will erode additive genetic variation in fitness-related traits. However, numerous studies have found considerable heritable variation in traits related to immune function, which should be closely linked to fitness. This could be due to trade-offs maintaining variation in these traits. We used the Egyptian cotton leafworm, Spodoptera littoralis, as a model system to examine the quantitative genetics of insect immune function. We estimated the heritabilities of several different measures of innate immunity and the genetic correlations between these immune traits and a number of life history traits. Our results provide the first evidence for a potential genetic trade-off within the insect immune system, with antibacterial activity (lysozyme-like) exhibiting a significant negative genetic correlation with haemocyte density, which itself is positively genetically correlated with both haemolymph phenoloxidase activity and cuticular melanization. We speculate on a potential trade-off between defence against parasites and predators, mediated by larval colour, and its role in maintaining genetic variation in traits under natural selection.

Emerging asymmetric interactions between forage and predator fisheries impose management trade-offs

A size and trait-based marine community model was used to investigate interactions, with potential implications for yields, when a fishery targeting forage fish species (whose main adult diet is zooplankton) co-occurs with a fishery targeting larger-sized predator species. Predicted effects on the size structure of the fish community, growth and recruitment of fishes, and yield from the fisheries were used to identify management trade-offs among the different fisheries. Results showed that moderate fishing on forage fishes imposed only small effects on predator fisheries, whereas predator fisheries could enhance yield from forage fisheries under some circumstances.

Heterogeneity assumptions in the specification of bargaining models: a study of household level trade-offs between commuting time and salary

With many real world decisions being made in conjunction with other decision makers, or single agent decisions having an influence on other members of the decision maker's immediate entourage, there is strong interest in studying the relative weight assigned to different agents in such contexts. In the present paper, we focus on the case of one member of a two person household being asked to make choices affecting the travel time and salary of both members. We highlight the presence of significant heterogeneity across individuals not just in their underlying sensitivities, but also in the relative weight they assign to their partner, and show how this weight varies across attributes. This is in contrast to existing work which uses weights assigned to individual agents at the level of the overall utility rather than for individual attributes. We also show clear evidence of a risk of confounding between heterogeneity in marginal sensitivities and heterogeneity in the weights assigned to each member. We show how this can lead to misleading model results, and argue that this may also explain past results showing bargaining or weight parameters outside the usual [0,1] range in more traditional joint decision making contexts. In terms of substantive results, we find that male respondents place more weight on their partner's travel time, while female respondents place more weight on their partner's salary.

Intellectual Property and the EU’s Deep Trade Agenda

The EU is considered to be one of the main proponents of what has been called the deep trade agenda—that is, the push for further trade liberalization with an emphasis on the removal of domestic non-tariff regulatory measures affecting trade, as opposed to the traditional focus on the removal of trade barriers at borders. As negotiations on the Doha Development Round have stalled, the EU has attempted to achieve these aims by entering into comprehensive free trade agreements (FTAs) that are not only limited exclusively to tariffs but also extend to non-tariff barriers, including services, intellectual property rights (IPRs), competition, and investment. These FTAs place great emphasis on regulatory convergence as a means to secure greater market openings. The paper examines the EU's current external trade policy in the area of IP, particularly its attempts to promote its own regulatory model for the protection of IP rights through trade agreements. By looking at the IP enforcement provisions of such agreements, the article also examines how the divisive issues that are currently hindering the progress of negotiations at WTO level, including the demands from developing countries to maintain a degree of autonomy in the area of IP regulation as well as the need to balance IP protection with human rights protection, are being dealt with in recent EU FTAs.

Model checking support for conflict resolution in multiple non-functional concern management

When implementing autonomic management of multiple non-functional concerns a trade-off must be found between the ability to develop independently management of the individual concerns (following the separation of concerns principle) and the detection and resolution of conflicts that may arise when combining the independently developed management code. Here we discuss strategies to establish this trade-off and introduce a model checking based methodology aimed at simplifying the discovery and handling of conflicts arising from deployment-within the same parallel application-of independently developed management policies. Preliminary results are shown demonstrating the feasibility of the approach.

A Programming Model and Runtime System for Significance-Aware Energy-Efficient Computing.

We introduce a task-based programming model and runtime system that exploit the observation that not all parts of a program are equally significant for the accuracy of the end-result, in order to trade off the quality of program outputs for increased energy-efficiency. This is done in a structured and flexible way, allowing for easy exploitation of different points in the quality/energy space, without adversely affecting application performance. The runtime system can apply a number of different policies to decide whether it will execute less-significant tasks accurately or approximately.

The experimental evaluation indicates that our system can achieve an energy reduction of up to 83% compared with a fully accurate execution and up to 35% compared with an approximate version employing loop perforation. At the same time, our approach always results in graceful quality degradation.

Avoiding Negligence and Profusion: The failure of the Joint-Stock form in the Anglo-Indian Tea Trade, 1840-1870

In the 19th century, firms operating in the Anglo-Indian tea trade were organised using a variety ownership forms including the partnership, joint-stock and a combination of the two known as the Managing agency. Faced with both an increasing need for fixed capital and high agency costs caused by the distance between owners and managers, the firms adapted and increasingly adopted the hybrid managing agency model to overcome these problems. Using new data from Calcutta and Bengal Commercial Registers and detailed case studies of the Assam Company and Gillanders, Arbuthnot and Co, this paper demonstrates that British entrepreneurs did not see the choice of ownership as a dichotomy or firm boundaries as fixed, but instead innovatively drew on the strengths of different forms of ownership to compete and grow successfully.

The trade specialization of SANE: evidence from manufacturing industries

This paper studies the evolution of the foreign trade specialization in manufacturing sectors of South Africa, Algeria, Nigeria and Egypt. These four countries, the so-called SANE, have recently been viewed as Africa’s best chance of producing an economic bloc whose role for Africa might be comparable to that of the BRIC economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China for the world economy. Using data on trade flows since mid-1970s, the results show that the SANE group has experienced few changes in its trade structure, which is still based on low-technology and slow-growth world demand sectors. The degree of persistence in the specialization model is higher in the case of Algeria and Nigeria, where the dependence on products based on natural resources is stronger.

Signalling in an international cournot model

We consider a trade policy model, where the costs of the home firm are private information but can be signaled through the output levels of the firm to a foreign competitor and a home policymaker. We study the influences of the non-homogeneity of the goods and of the uncertainty on the production costs of the home firm in the signalling strategies by the home firm. We show that some results obtained for homogeneous goods are not robust under non-homogeneity.

Strategic trade policy and signaling costs with differentiated goods

We consider a trade policy model, where the costs of the home firm are private information but can be signaled through the output levels of the firm to a foreign competitor and a home policymaker. We compute the separating equilibrium and the Bayesian Nash equilibrium, and we compare the subsidies, firms’ expected profits and home government’s welfare in both equilibria, for different values of the own price effect parameter.

Drilling deeper: Understanding trade in Angola

The present study analyzes Angola’s trading partners from 2005 to 2015 in order to understand the main drivers of Exports and Imports growth. Departing from a gravity model, foreign GDP growth and real exchange rate fluctuations were interpreted as demand and supply disturbances on Exports. While nominal and real exports both increase with demand expansions, they react differently to supply shocks. Imports are growing at the same rate as Angola’s economy while exchange rate fluctuations capture the wealth effect of Oil price in the economy.

Model-based appraisal of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in Northern Ireland

In 2009, the Sheffield Alcohol Research Group (SARG) at Sheffield University developed the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 2.0 (SAPM) to appraise the potential impact of alcohol policies, including different levels of MUP, for the population of England. In 2013, SARG were commissioned by the DHSSPS and the Department for Social Development to adapt the Sheffield Model to NI in order to appraise the potential impact of a range of alcohol pricing policies. The present report represents the results of this work. Estimates from the Northern Ireland (NI) adaptation of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model - version 3 - (SAPM3) suggest: 1. Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) policies would be effective in reducing alcohol consumption, alcohol related harms (including alcohol-related deaths, hospitalisations, crimes and workplace absences) and the costs associated with those harms. 2. A ban on below-cost selling (implemented as a ban on selling alcohol for below the cost of duty plus the VAT payable on that duty) would have a negligible impact on alcohol consumption or related harms. 3. A ban on price-based promotions in the off-trade, either alone or in tandem with an MUP policy would be effective in reducing alcohol consumption, related harms and associated costs. 4. MUP and promotion ban policies would only have a small impact on moderate drinkers at all levels of income. Somewhat larger impacts would be experienced by increasing risk drinkers, with the most substantial effects being experienced by high risk drinkers. 5. MUP and promotion ban policies would have larger impacts on those in poverty, particularly high risk drinkers, than those not in poverty. However, those in poverty also experience larger relative gains in health and are estimated to marginally reduce their spending due to their reduced drinking under the majority of policies åÊ

International Transmission of the Business Cycle in a Multi-Sector Model.

Multi-country models have not been very successful in replicating important features of the international transmission of business cycles. Standard models predict cross-country correlations of output and consumption which are respectively too low and too high. In this paper, we build a multi-country model of the business cycle with multiple sectors in order to analyze the role of sectoral shocks in the international transmission of the business cycle. We find that a model with multiple sectors generates a higher cross-country correlation of output than standard one-sector models, and a lower cross-country correlation of consumption. In addition, it predicts cross-country correlations of employment and investment that are closer to the data than the standard model. We also analyze the relative effects of multiple sectors, trade in intermediate goods, imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign goods, home preference, capital adjustment costs, and capital depreciation on the international transmission of the business cycle.