Recessions and babie's health

We study the effect of the business cycle on the health of newborn babies using 30 years of birth certificate data for Spain. Exploiting regional variation over time, we find that babies are born healthier when the local unemployment rate is high. Although fertility is lower during recessions, the effect on health is not the result of selection (healthier mothers being more likely to conceive when unemployment is high). We match multiple births to the same parents and find that the main result survives the inclusion of parents fixed-effects. We then explore a range of maternal behaviors as potential channels. Fertility-age women do not appear to engage in significantly healthier behaviors during recessions (in terms of exercise, nutrition, smoking and drinking). However, they are more likely to be out of work. Maternal employment during pregnancy is in turn negatively correlated with babies' health. We conclude that maternal employment is a plausible mediating channel.

Does direct democracy reduce the size of government? New evidence from historical data, 1890-2000

Using historical data for all Swiss cantons from 1890 to 2000, we estimate the causal effect of direct democracy on government spending. The main innovation in this paper is that we use fixed effects to control for unobserved heterogeneity and instrumental variables to address the potential endogeneity of institutions. We find that the budget referendum and lower costs to launch a voter initiative are effective tools in reducing canton level spending. However, we find no evidence that the budget referendum results in more decentralized government or a larger local government. Our instrumental variable estimates suggest that a mandatory budget referendum reduces the size of canton spending between 13 and 19 percent. A 1 percent lower signature requirement for the initiative reduces canton spending by up to 2 percent.

Employee referrals and efficiency wages

Many workers believe that personal contacts are crucial for obtainingjobs in high-wage sectors. On the other hand, firms in high-wage sectorsreport using employee referrals because they help provide screening andmonitoring of new employees. This paper develops a matching model thatcan explain the link between inter-industry wage differentials and useof employee referrals. Referrals lower monitoring costs because high-effortreferees can exert peer pressure on co-workers, allowing firms to pay lowerefficiency wages. On the other hand, informal search provides fewer job andapplicant contacts than formal methods (e.g., newspaper ads). In equilibrium,the matching process generates segmentation in the labor market becauseof heterogeneity in the size of referral networks. Referrals match good high-paying jobs to well-connected workers, while formal methods matchless attractive jobs to less-connected workers. Industry-level data show apositive correlation between industry wage premia and use of employeereferrals. Moreover, evidence using the NLSY shows similar positive andsignificant OLS and fixed-effects estimates of the returns to employeereferrals, but insignificant effects once sector of employment is controlledfor. This evidence suggests referred workers earn higher wages not becauseof higher unobserved ability or better matches but rather because theyare hired in high-wage sectors.

Technology diffusion and the spatial distribution of wages in the US

What explains the spatial distribution of wages across US counties? I find that two of the most important factors are spatial technology diffusion and externalities due to the aggregate scale of production. One empirical finding supporting the importance of spatial technology diffusion is that average wages in a county decrease with the average level of schooling in neighboring counties when employment in the county and average wages in neighboring counties are held constant. All empirical results are obtained using anovel instrument for (endogenous) employment at the county-leveland take into account other factors (e.g. productivity-differencesacross states, climate) that may determine wages.

The effect of divorce laws on divorce rates in Europe

This paper analyzes a panel of 18 European countries spanning from 1950 to 2003 toexamine the extent to which the legal reforms leading to easier divorce that took placeduring the second half of the 20th century have contributed to the increase in divorce rates across Europe. We use a quasi-experimental set-up and exploit the different timing of the reforms in divorce laws across countries. We account for unobserved country-specificfactors by introducing country fixed effects, and we include country-specific trends tocontrol for time-varying factors at the country level that may be correlated with divorcerates and divorce laws, such as changing social norms or slow moving demographictrends. We find that the reforms were followed by significant increases in divorce rates.Overall, we estimate that the introduction of no-fault, unilateral divorce increased thedivorce rate by about 1, a sizeable effect given the average rate of 4.2 divorces per 1,000married people in 2002.

Convergence in panel data: Evidence from the skipping estimation

This paper demonstrates that, unlike what the conventional wisdom says, measurement error biases in panel data estimation of convergence using OLS with fixed effects are huge, not trivial. It does so by way of the "skipping estimation"': taking data from every m years of the sample (where m is an integer greater than or equal to 2), as opposed to every single year. It is shown that the estimated speed of convergence from the OLS with fixed effects is biased upwards by as much as 7 to 15%.

Genome-wide association study to identify common variants associated with brachial circumference: a meta-analysis of 14 cohorts.

Brachial circumference (BC), also known as upper arm or mid arm circumference, can be used as an indicator of muscle mass and fat tissue, which are distributed differently in men and women. Analysis of anthropometric measures of peripheral fat distribution such as BC could help in understanding the complex pathophysiology behind overweight and obesity. The purpose of this study is to identify genetic variants associated with BC through a large-scale genome-wide association scan (GWAS) meta-analysis. We used fixed-effects meta-analysis to synthesise summary results across 14 GWAS discovery and 4 replication cohorts comprising overall 22,376 individuals (12,031 women and 10,345 men) of European ancestry. Individual analyses were carried out for men, women, and combined across sexes using linear regression and an additive genetic model: adjusted for age and adjusted for age and BMI. We prioritised signals for follow-up in two-stages. We did not detect any signals reaching genome-wide significance. The FTO rs9939609 SNP showed nominal evidence for association (p<0.05) in the age-adjusted strata for men and across both sexes. In this first GWAS meta-analysis for BC to date, we have not identified any genome-wide significant signals and do not observe robust association of previously established obesity loci with BC. Large-scale collaborations will be necessary to achieve higher power to detect loci underlying BC.

A program for the computation of power and determination of sample size in hierarchical experimental designs.

We have devised a program that allows computation of the power of F-test, and hence determination of appropriate sample and subsample sizes, in the context of the one-way hierarchical analysis of variance with fixed effects. The power at a fixed alternative is an increasing function of the sample size and of the subsample size. The program makes it easy to obtain the power of F-test for a range of values of sample and subsample sizes, and therefore the appropriate sizes based on a desired power. The program can be used for the 'ordinary' case of the one-way analysis of variance, as well as for hierarchical analysis of variance with two stages of sampling. Examples are given of the practical use of the program.

On making causal claims: A review and recommendations

Social scientists often estimate models from correlational data, where the independent variable has not been exogenously manipulated; they also make implicit or explicit causal claims based on these models. When can these claims be made? We answer this question by first discussing design and estimation conditions under which model estimates can be interpreted, using the randomized experiment as the gold standard. We show how endogeneity--which includes omitted variables, omitted selection, simultaneity, common methods bias, and measurement error--renders estimates causally uninterpretable. Second, we present methods that allow researchers to test causal claims in situations where randomization is not possible or when causal interpretation is confounded, including fixed-effects panel, sample selection, instrumental variable, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences models. Third, we take stock of the methodological rigor with which causal claims are being made in a social sciences discipline by reviewing a representative sample of 110 articles on leadership published in the previous 10 years in top-tier journals. Our key finding is that researchers fail to address at least 66 % and up to 90 % of design and estimation conditions that make causal claims invalid. We conclude by offering 10 suggestions on how to improve non-experimental research.

On the consequences of misspecifing assumptions concerning residuals distribution in a repeated measures and nonlinear mixed modelling context

In this paper we describe the results of a simulation study performed to elucidate the robustness of the Lindstrom and Bates (1990) approximation method under non-normality of the residuals, under different situations. Concerning the fixed effects, the observed coverage probabilities and the true bias and mean square error values, show that some aspects of this inferential approach are not completely reliable. When the true distribution of the residuals is asymmetrical, the true coverage is markedly lower than the nominal one. The best results are obtained for the skew normal distribution, and not for the normal distribution. On the other hand, the results are partially reversed concerning the random effects. Soybean genotypes data are used to illustrate the methods and to motivate the simulation scenarios

Genetic polymorphisms of the main transcription factors for adiponectin gene promoter in regulation of adiponectin levels: association analysis in three European cohorts.

Adiponectin serum concentrations are an important biomarker in cardiovascular epidemiology with heritability etimates of 30-70%. However, known genetic variants in the adiponectin gene locus (ADIPOQ) account for only 2%-8% of its variance. As transcription factors are thought to play an under-acknowledged role in carrying functional variants, we hypothesized that genetic polymorphisms in genes coding for the main transcription factors for the ADIPOQ promoter influence adiponectin levels. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at these genes were selected based on the haplotype block structure and previously published evidence to be associated with adiponectin levels. We performed association analyses of the 24 selected SNPs at forkhead box O1 (FOXO1), sterol-regulatory-element-binding transcription factor 1 (SREBF1), sirtuin 1 (SIRT1), peroxisome-proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARG) and transcription factor activating enhancer binding protein 2 beta (TFAP2B) gene loci with adiponectin levels in three different European cohorts: SAPHIR (n = 1742), KORA F3 (n = 1636) and CoLaus (n = 5355). In each study population, the association of SNPs with adiponectin levels on log-scale was tested using linear regression adjusted for age, sex and body mass index, applying both an additive and a recessive genetic model. A pooled effect size was obtained by meta-analysis assuming a fixed effects model. We applied a significance threshold of 0.0033 accounting for the multiple testing situation. A significant association was only found for variants within SREBF1 applying an additive genetic model (smallest p-value for rs1889018 on log(adiponectin) = 0.002, β on original scale = -0.217 µg/ml), explaining ∼0.4% of variation of adiponectin levels. Recessive genetic models or haplotype analyses of the FOXO1, SREBF1, SIRT1, TFAPB2B genes or sex-stratified analyses did not reveal additional information on the regulation of adiponectin levels. The role of genetic variations at the SREBF1 gene in regulating adiponectin needs further investigation by functional studies.

Modelling Bone Mineral Density in Swiss Breast Cancer Patients Treated with Letrozole, Tamoxifen and Sequences of Letrozole and Tamoxifen in the BIG 1-98 Study (SAKK 21/07).

Background: Bone health is a concern when treating early stage breast cancer patients with adjuvant aromatase inhibitors. Early detection of patients (pts) at risk of osteoporosis and fractures may be helpful for starting preventive therapies and selecting the most appropriate endocrine therapy schedule. We present statistical models describing the evolution of lumbar and hip bone mineral density (BMD) in pts treated with tamoxifen (T), letrozole (L) and sequences of T and L. Methods: Available dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry exams (DXA) of pts treated in trial BIG 1-98 were retrospectively collected from Swiss centers. Treatment arms: A) T for 5 years, B) L for 5 years, C) 2 years of T followed by 3 years of L and, D) 2 years of L followed by 3 years of T. Pts without DXA were used as a control for detecting selection biases. Patients randomized to arm A were subsequently allowed an unplanned switch from T to L. Allowing for variations between DXA machines and centres, two repeated measures models, using a covariance structure that allow for different times between DXA, were used to estimate changes in hip and lumbar BMD (g/cm2) from trial randomization. Prospectively defined covariates, considered as fixed effects in the multivariable models in an intention to treat analysis, at the time of trial randomization were: age, height, weight, hysterectomy, race, known osteoporosis, tobacco use, prior bone fracture, prior hormone replacement therapy (HRT), bisphosphonate use and previous neo-/adjuvant chemotherapy (ChT). Similarly, the T-scores for lumbar and hip BMD measurements were modeled using a per-protocol approach (allowing for treatment switch in arm A), specifically studying the effect of each therapy upon T-score percentage. Results: A total of 247 out of 546 pts had between 1 and 5 DXA; a total of 576 DXA were collected. Number of DXA measurements per arm were; arm A 133, B 137, C 141 and D 135. The median follow-up time was 5.8 years. Significant factors positively correlated with lumbar and hip BMD in the multivariate analysis were weight, previous HRT use, neo-/adjuvant ChT, hysterectomy and height. Significant negatively correlated factors in the models were osteoporosis, treatment arm (B/C/D vs. A), time since endocrine therapy start, age and smoking (current vs. never).Modeling the T-score percentage, differences from T to L were -4.199% (p = 0.036) and -4.907% (p = 0.025) for the hip and lumbar measurements respectively, before any treatment switch occurred. Conclusions: Our statistical models describe the lumbar and hip BMD evolution for pts treated with L and/or T. The results of both localisations confirm that, contrary to expectation, the sequential schedules do not seem less detrimental for the BMD than L monotherapy. The estimated difference in BMD T-score percent is at least 4% from T to L.

Bone mineral density in breast cancer patients treated with adjuvant letrozole, tamoxifen, or sequences of letrozole and tamoxifen in the BIG 1-98 study (SAKK 21/07).

BACKGROUND: The risk of osteoporosis and fracture influences the selection of adjuvant endocrine therapy. We analyzed bone mineral density (BMD) in Swiss patients of the Breast International Group (BIG) 1-98 trial [treatment arms: A, tamoxifen (T) for 5 years; B, letrozole (L) for 5 years; C, 2 years of T followed by 3 years of L; D, 2 years of L followed by 3 years of T]. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) results were retrospectively collected. Patients without DXA served as control group. Repeated measures models using covariance structures allowing for different times between DXA were used to estimate changes in BMD. Prospectively defined covariates were considered as fixed effects in the multivariable models. RESULTS: Two hundred and sixty-one of 546 patients had one or more DXA with 577 lumbar and 550 hip measurements. Weight, height, prior hormone replacement therapy, and hysterectomy were positively correlated with BMD; the correlation was negative for letrozole arms (B/C/D versus A), known osteoporosis, time on trial, age, chemotherapy, and smoking. Treatment did not influence the occurrence of osteoporosis (T score < -2.5 standard deviation). CONCLUSIONS: All aromatase inhibitor regimens reduced BMD. The sequential schedules were as detrimental for bone density as L monotherapy.

Do political factors matter in explaining under- and overweight outcomes in developing countries?

We construct a rich dataset covering 47 developing countries over the years 1990-2007, combining several micro and macro level data sources to explore the link between political factors and body mass index (BMI). We implement a heteroskedastic generalized ordered logit model allowing for different covariate effects across the BMI distribution and accounting for the unequal BMI dispersion by geographical area. We find that systems with democratic qualities are more likely to reduce under-weight, but increase overweight/obesity, whereas effective political competition does entail double-benefits in the form of reducing both under-weight and obesity. Our results are robust to the introduction of country fixed effects.

Women in leadership: Three essays

GENDER EMPOWERMENT: EFFECTS OF GODS, GEOGRAPHY, AND GDP¦Fenley, M., & Antonakis, J.¦ABSTRACT¦We examined the determinants of women's empowerment in the economy and political leadership in 178 countries. Given the androcentric nature of most religions, we hypothesized that high degrees of country-level theistic belief create social conditions that impede the progression of women to power. The dependent variable was the Gender Empowerment index of the United Nations Development Program, which captures the participation of women in political leadership, management, and their share of national income. Controlling for GDP per capita as well as the fixed-effects of the dominant type of religion and legal origin and instrumenting all endogenous variables with geographic or historical variables, our results show that atheism has a significant positive effect on gender empowerment. These results are driven by the rule of law, which in addition to being a catalyst for economic development, appears to crowd-out the informal regulation of behavior due to religious norms.¦DEVELOPING WOMEN LEADERS: COMPARING A TRANSFORMATIONAL AND A CHARISMATIC LEADERSHIP INTERVENTION¦Fenley, M., Jacquart, P., & Antonakis, J.¦ABSTRACT¦Along with a gender imbalance in leadership role occupancy, most leadership interventions have been conducted with samples of men. We conducted an experiment wherein we assigned female participants (n = 38, mean age = 35 years) to one of two conditions: Transformational (i.e., "standard") leadership training or charismatic leadership training. The two interventions were essentially equivalent, except that we also focused on developing the "charismatic leadership tactics" (e.g., rhetorical skills) of participants in the charismatic condition. After the interventions, we randomly assigned participants into problem-solving teams that required extensive interaction. Each team had an equal number of participants having received transformational training or charismatic training. At the end of the team exercises, participants rated each of their team members on a leadership prototypicality measure. Results indicated that those who received charismatic training scored higher (a) on prototypicality (standardized  = .42) and (b) on a test of declarative knowledge of charismatic rhetorical strategies (i.e., a manipulation check, standardized  = .76). Furthermore, the score on the test fully mediated the effect of the treatment on prototypicality (standardized indirect  = .32). We discuss the importance and practical implications of these results.¦CHANGING ATTITUDES TOWARDS WOMEN IN A MALE SEX-TYPE WORK ENVIRONMENT: EVIDENCE FROM A FIELD EXPERIMENT IN EUROPEAN ATHLETICS¦Fenley, M.¦ABSTRACT¦Most sports organizations have a similar gender gap in leadership as do the majority of non-sport organizations. Women's careers sputter somewhere at coaching level positions and few women obtain top leadership positions. Greater awareness of gender inequalities in general, and in leadership in particular, could decrease gender discrimination and increase women's presence at upper levels. The goal of this study was to evaluate the impact of an intervention using an online gender awareness exercise. Participants (n = 1,001 participants, n = 32 countries) were randomly assigned to one of eight conditions in a 2 (a discriminating perspective-taking story or a non-discriminating perspective-taking story) by 2 (gender quiz or no gender quiz) by 2 (diversity quiz or no diversity quiz) factorial design. The results show that the online perspective taking exercise changed initial sexist attitudes. Participants having taken a diversity quiz had less sexist attitudes (as measured by the Modern- and Old-fashioned sexism scale) than did participants who did not take the diversity quiz (irrespective of perspective-taking story). The combination of having taken a diversity quiz with a gender quiz had the biggest impact on attitudes for the non-discriminating story.