Buborékok és legendák. Válságok és válságmagyarázatok II/2. rész. A Déltengeri Társaság (Bubbles and myths crises and explanations II/2.: the South Sea bubble)

A cikk a tulipánmániával foglalkozó tanulmány folytatása (Madarász [2009]). A Déltengeri Társaság 1720-as fellendülése és kipukkadása mindmáig egyike a pénzügyi történelem leghíresebb és leggyakrabban emlegetett buborékainak. A közgazdaságtanban a buborék sokáig nem volt fontos téma, de az utóbbi időben ismét divatba jött. A tanulmány először a buborékmetafora néhány irodalmi példáját mutatja be, majd összefoglalja az angol államadósság kialakulását, a korai modern fiskális-militarista állam létrejöttét és a pénzügyi forradalom különböző interpretációit. A Déltengeri Társaság történetének, az adósság-részvény csere lebonyolításának és a korabeli vélemények spektrumának ismertetése után áttekintést ad arról, milyen módon és céllal használták fel az 1720-as eseményeket közgazdászok és történészek saját magyarázataikban. Ezek skálája a tudatos csalástól a befektetők irracionális mániáján át a racionális buborék kialakulásáig terjed. / === / The first part of the study (published here in 2009) was devoted to "tulip-mania". This article continues the account of early bubbles and crises with the 1720 boom and bust of the South Sea Company, which remains to this day one of the best known and most cited examples in history. For several decades, bubbles were not seen as an important issue in economic and financial theory, but recent events have focused attention on them again. The author introduces some historical examples of the bubble metaphor in literature, before describing the emergence of British public debt and the fiscal/military state, and summarizing various interpretations of the financial revolution. An account of the South Sea Bubble, a detailed description of the debt-equity swap, and citations from some contemporary investors and observers are followed by an overview of how the events of 1720 were used subsequently by various economists and historians in their theorizing and explanations. Such interpretations range from deliberate fraud, through irrational investment mania, to the emergence of a rational bubble.

Essays on city size distribution and real estate bubbles

This is a dissertation about urban systems; within this broad subject I tackle three issues, one that focuses on an observed inter-city relationship and two that focus on an intra-city phenomenon. In Chapter II I adapt a model of random emergence of economic opportunities from the firm growth literature to the urban dynamics situation and present several predictions for urban system dynamics. One of these predictions is that the older the city the larger and more diversified it is going to be on average, which I proceed to verify empirically using two distinct datasets. In Chapter III I analyze the Residential Real Estate Bubble that took place in Miami-Dade County from 1999 to 2006. I adopt a Spatial-Economic model developed for the Paris Bubble episode of 1984–1993 and formulate an innovative test of the results in terms of speculative intensity on the basis of proxies of investor activity available in my dataset. My results support the idea that the best or more expensive areas are also where the greatest speculative activity takes place and where the rapid increase in prices begins. The most significant departure from previous studies that emerges in my results is the absence of a wider gap between high priced areas and low priced areas in the peak year. I develop a measure of dispersion in value among areas and contrast the Miami-Dade and Paris episodes. In Chapter IV I analyze the impact on tax equity of a Florida tax-limiting legislation known as Save Our Homes. I first compare homesteaded and non-homesteaded properties, and second, look within the subset of homesteaded properties. I find that non-homesteaded properties increase their share of taxes paid relative to homesteaded properties during an up market, but that this is reversed during a down market. For the subset of homesteaded properties I find that the impact on tax equity of SOH will depend on differential growth rates among higher and lower valued homes, but during times of rapid home price appreciation, in a scenario of no differential growth rates in property values, SOH increases progressivity relative to the prior system.

Measuring House Price Bubbles

We thank John Clapp, Martijn Dröes, Mika Kortelainen, and Song Shi for helpful comments. Financial support from the Academy of Finland, the OP‐Pohjola Group Research Foundation, the Kluuvi Foundation, and the Emil Aaltonen Foundation is gratefully acknowledged.

Efficient and Selectable Production of Reactive Species Using a Nanosecond Pulsed Discharge in Gas Bubbles in Liquid

A plasma gas bubble-in-liquid method for high production of selectable reactive species using a nanosecond pulse generator has been developed. The gas of choice is fed through a hollow needle in a point-to-plate bubble discharge, enabling improved selection of reactive species. The increased interface reactions, between the gas-plasma and water through bubbles, give higher productivity. H₂O₂ was the predominant species produced using Ar plasma, while predominantly  and NO₂ were generated using air plasma, in good agreement with the observed emission spectra. This method has nearly 100% selectivity for H₂O₂, with seven times higher production, and 92% selectivity for , with nearly twice the production, compared with a plasma above the water.

A STUDY OF HEAT TRANSFER AND FLOW CHARACTERISTICS OF RISING TAYLOR BUBBLES

Practical application of flow boiling to ground- and space-based thermal management systems hinges on the ability to predict the system’s heat removal capabilities under expected operating conditions. Research in this field has shown that the heat transfer coefficient within two-phase heat exchangers can be largely dependent on the experienced flow regime. This finding has inspired an effort to develop mechanistic heat transfer models for each flow pattern which are likely to outperform traditional empirical correlations. As a contribution to the effort, this work aimed to identify the heat transfer mechanisms for the slug flow regime through analysis of individual Taylor bubbles. An experimental apparatus was developed to inject single vapor Taylor bubbles into co-currently flowing liquid HFE 7100. The heat transfer was measured as the bubble rose through a 6 mm inner diameter heated tube using an infrared thermography technique. High-speed flow visualization was obtained and the bubble film thickness measured in an adiabatic section. Experiments were conducted at various liquid mass fluxes (43-200 kg/m2s) and gravity levels (0.01g-1.8g) to characterize the effect of bubble drift velocity on the heat transfer mechanisms. Variable gravity testing was conducted during a NASA parabolic flight campaign. Results from the experiments showed that the drift velocity strongly affects the hydrodynamics and heat transfer of single elongated bubbles. At low gravity levels, bubbles exhibited shapes characteristic of capillary flows and the heat transfer enhancement due to the bubble was dominated by conduction through the thin film. At moderate to high gravity, traditional Taylor bubbles provided small values of enhancement within the film, but large peaks in the wake heat transfer occurred due to turbulent vortices induced by the film plunging into the trailing liquid slug. Characteristics of the wake heat transfer profiles were analyzed and related to the predicted velocity field. Results were compared and shown to agree with numerical simulations of colleagues from EPFL, Switzerland. In addition, a preliminary study was completed on the effect of a Taylor bubble passing through nucleate flow boiling, showing that the thinning thermal boundary layer within the film suppressed nucleation, thereby decreasing the heat transfer coefficient.

Essays in asset price bubbles

This thesis studies the field of asset price bubbles. It is comprised of three independent chapters. Each of these chapters either directly or indirectly analyse the existence or implications of asset price bubbles. The type of bubbles assumed in each of these chapters is consistent with rational expectations. Thus, the kind of price bubbles investigated here are known as rational bubbles in the literature. The following describes the three chapters. Chapter 1: This chapter attempts to explain the recent US housing price bubble by developing a heterogeneous agent endowment economy asset pricing model with risky housing, endogenous collateral and defaults. Investment in housing is subject to an idiosyncratic risk and some mortgages are defaulted in equilibrium. We analytically derive the leverage or the endogenous loan to value ratio. This variable comes from a limited participation constraint in a one period mortgage contract with monitoring costs. Our results show that low values of housing investment risk produces a credit easing effect encouraging excess leverage and generates credit driven rational price bubbles in the housing good. Conversely, high values of housing investment risk produces a credit crunch characterized by tight borrowing constraints, low leverage and low house prices. Furthermore, the leverage ratio was found to be procyclical and the rate of defaults countercyclical consistent with empirical evidence. Chapter 2: It is widely believed that financial assets have considerable persistence and are susceptible to bubbles. However, identification of this persistence and potential bubbles is not straightforward. This chapter tests for price bubbles in the United States housing market accounting for long memory and structural breaks. The intuition is that the presence of long memory negates price bubbles while the presence of breaks could artificially induce bubble behaviour. Hence, we use procedures namely semi-parametric Whittle and parametric ARFIMA procedures that are consistent for a variety of residual biases to estimate the value of the long memory parameter, d, of the log rent-price ratio. We find that the semi-parametric estimation procedures robust to non-normality and heteroskedasticity errors found far more bubble regions than parametric ones. A structural break was identified in the mean and trend of all the series which when accounted for removed bubble behaviour in a number of regions. Importantly, the United States housing market showed evidence for rational bubbles at both the aggregate and regional levels. In the third and final chapter, we attempt to answer the following question: To what extend should individuals participate in the stock market and hold risky assets over their lifecycle? We answer this question by employing a lifecycle consumption-portfolio choice model with housing, labour income and time varying predictable returns where the agents are constrained in the level of their borrowing. We first analytically characterize and then numerically solve for the optimal asset allocation on the risky asset comparing the return predictability case with that of IID returns. We successfully resolve the puzzles and find equity holding and participation rates close to the data. We also find that return predictability substantially alter both the level of risky portfolio allocation and the rate of stock market participation. High factor (dividend-price ratio) realization and high persistence of factor process indicative of stock market bubbles raise the amount of wealth invested in risky assets and the level of stock market participation, respectively. Conversely, rare disasters were found to bring down these rates, the change being severe for investors in the later years of the life-cycle. Furthermore, investors following time varying returns (return predictability) hedged background risks significantly better than the IID ones.

Automatic dynamic mask extraction for PIV images containing an unsteady interface, bubbles, and a moving structure

When performing Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) measurements in complex fluid flows with moving interfaces and a two-phase flow, it is necessary to develop a mask to remove non-physical measurements. This is the case when studying, for example, the complex bubble sweep-down phenomenon observed in oceanographic research vessels. Indeed, in such a configuration, the presence of an unsteady free surface, of a solid–liquid interface and of bubbles in the PIV frame, leads to generate numerous laser reflections and therefore spurious velocity vectors. In this note, an image masking process is developed to successively identify the boundaries of the ship and the free surface interface. As the presence of the solid hull surface induces laser reflections, the hull edge contours are simply detected in the first PIV frame and dynamically estimated for consecutive ones. As for the unsteady surface determination, a specific process is implemented like the following: i) the edge detection of the gradient magnitude in the PIV frame, ii) the extraction of the particles by filtering high-intensity large areas related to the bubbles and/or hull reflections, iii) the extraction of the rough region containing these particles and their reflections, iv) the removal of these reflections. The unsteady surface is finally obtained with a fifth-order polynomial interpolation. The resulted free surface is successfully validated from the Fourier analysis and by visualizing selected PIV images containing numerous spurious high intensity areas. This paper demonstrates how this data analysis process leads to PIV images database without reflections and an automatic detection of both the free surface and the rigid body. An application of this new mask is finally detailed, allowing a preliminary analysis of the hydrodynamic flow.

Effects of bubbles, cracks, and volcanic tephra on the spectral albedo of bare ice near the Transantarctic Mountains: Implications for sea glaciers on Snowball Earth

Spectral albedo was measured along a 6 km transect near the Allan Hills in East Antarctica. The transect traversed the sequence from new snow through old snow, firn, and white ice, to blue ice, showing a systematic progression of decreasing albedo at all wavelengths, as well as decreasing specific surface area (SSA) and increasing density. Broadband albedos under clear-sky range from 0.80 for snow to 0.57 for blue ice, and from 0.87 to 0.65 under cloud. Both air bubbles and cracks scatter sunlight; their contributions to SSA were determined by microcomputed tomography on core samples of the ice. Although albedo is governed primarily by the SSA (and secondarily by the shape) of bubbles or snow grains, albedo also correlates highly with porosity, which, as a proxy variable, would be easier for ice sheet models to predict than bubble sizes. Albedo parameterizations are therefore developed as a function of density for three broad wavelength bands commonly used in general circulation models: visible, near-infrared, and total solar. Relevance to Snowball Earth events derives from the likelihood that sublimation of equatorward-flowing sea glaciers during those events progressively exposed the same sequence of surface materials that we measured at Allan Hills, with our short 6 km transect representing a transect across many degrees of latitude on the Snowball ocean. At the equator of Snowball Earth, climate models predict thick ice, or thin ice, or open water, depending largely on their albedo parameterizations; our measured albedos appear to be within the range that favors ice hundreds of meters thick. Citation:

ISM simulations: an overview of models

Until recently the dynamical evolution of the interstellar medium (ISM) was simu- lated using collisional ionization equilibrium (CIE) conditions. However, the ISM is a dynamical system, in which the plasma is naturally driven out of equilibrium due to atomic and dynamic processes operating on different timescales. A step forward in the field comprises a multi-fluid approach taking into account the joint thermal and dynamical evolutions of the ISM gas.

TEORIA SINTÁTICA: DE UMA PERSPECTIVA DE -ISMOS PARA UMAPERSPECTIVA DE PROGRAMAS

This paper tries to show that the developments in linguistic sciences are better viewed as stages in a single research program, rather than different ideological -isms. The first part contains an overview of the structuralistas' beliefs about the universality and equivalence of human languages, and their search for syntactic universals. In the second part, we will see that the generative program, in its turn, tries to answer why language is a universal faculty in the human species and addresses questions about its form, its development and its use. In the second part, we will see that the paper gives a brief glimpse of the tentative answers the program has been giving to each of these issues.

Abundances in the Galactic bulge: results from planetary nebulae and giant stars

Context. Our understanding of the chemical evolution (CE) of the Galactic bulge requires the determination of abundances in large samples of giant stars and planetary nebulae (PNe). Studies based on high resolution spectroscopy of giant stars in several fields of the Galactic bulge obtained with very large telescopes have allowed important progress. Aims. We discuss PNe abundances in the Galactic bulge and compare these results with those presented in the literature for giant stars. Methods. We present the largest, high-quality data-set available for PNe in the direction of the Galactic bulge (inner-disk/bulge). For comparison purposes, we also consider a sample of PNe in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). We derive the element abundances in a consistent way for all the PNe studied. By comparing the abundances for the bulge, inner-disk, and LMC, we identify elements that have not been modified during the evolution of the PN progenitor and can be used to trace the bulge chemical enrichment history. We then compare the PN abundances with abundances of bulge field giant. Results. At the metallicity of the bulge, we find that the abundances of O and Ne are close to the values for the interstellar medium at the time of the PN progenitor formation, and hence these elements can be used as tracers of the bulge CE, in the same way as S and Ar, which are not expected to be affected by nucleosynthetic processes during the evolution of the PN progenitors. The PN oxygen abundance distribution is shifted to lower values by 0.3 dex with respect to the distribution given by giants. A similar shift appears to occur for Ne and S. We discuss possible reasons for this PNe-giant discrepancy and conclude that this is probably due to systematic errors in the abundance derivations in either giants or PNe (or both). We issue an important warning concerning the use of absolute abundances in CE studies.

H(2) infrared line emission from the ionized region of planetary nebulae

Context. The analysis and interpretation of the H(2) line emission from planetary nebulae have been done in the literature by assuming that the molecule survives only in regions where the hydrogen is neutral, as in photodissociation, neutral clumps, or shocked regions. However, there is strong observational and theoretical evidence that at least part of the H(2) emission is produced inside the ionized region of these objects. Aims. The aim of the present work is to calculate and analyze the infrared line emission of H(2) produced inside the ionized region of planetary nebulae using a one-dimensional photoionization code. Methods. The photoionization code Aangaba was improved in order to calculate the statistical population of the H(2) energy levels, as well as the intensity of the H(2) infrared emission lines in the physical conditions typical of planetary nebulae. A grid of models was obtained and the results then analyzed and compared with the observational data. Results. We show that the contribution of the ionized region to the H(2) line emission can be important, particularly in the case of nebulae with high-temperature central stars. This result explains why H(2) emission is more frequently observed in bipolar planetary nebulae (Gatley's rule), since this kind of object typically has hotter stars. Collisional excitation plays an important role in populating the rovibrational levels of the electronic ground state of H(2) molecules. Radiative mechanisms are also important, particularly for the upper vibrational levels. Formation pumping can have minor effects on the line intensities produced by de-excitation from very high rotational levels, especially in dense and dusty environments. We included the effect of the H(2) molecule on the thermal equilibrium of the gas, concluding that, in the ionized region, H(2) only contributes to the thermal equilibrium in the case of a very high temperature of the central star or a high dust-to-gas ratio, mainly through collisional de-excitation.

First stars XIV. Sulfur abundances in extremely metal-poor stars

Context. Precise S abundances are important in the study of the early chemical evolution of the Galaxy. In particular the site of the formation remains uncertain because, at low metallicity, the trend of this alpha-element versus [Fe/H] remains unclear. Moreover, although sulfur is not bound significantly in dust grains in the ISM, it seems to behave differently in DLAs and old metal-poor stars. Aims. We attempt a precise measurement of the S abundance in a sample of extremely metal-poor stars observed with the ESO VLT equipped with UVES, taking into account NLTE and 3D effects. Methods. The NLTE profiles of the lines of multiplet 1 of S I were computed with a version of the program MULTI, including opacity sources from ATLAS9 and based on a new model atom for S. These profiles were fitted to the observed spectra. Results. We find that sulfur in EMP stars behaves like the other alpha-elements, with [S/Fe] remaining approximately constant below [Fe/H] = -3. However, [S/Mg] seems to decrease slightly with increasing [Mg/H]. The overall abundance patterns of O, Na, Mg, Al, S, and K are most closely matched by the SN model yields by Heger & Woosley. The [S/Zn] ratio in EMP stars is solar, as also found in DLAs. We derive an upper limit to the sulfur abundance [S/Fe] < +0.5 for the ultra metal-poor star CS 22949-037. This, along with a previously reported measurement of zinc, argues against the conjecture that the light-element abundance pattern of this star (and by analogy, the hyper iron-poor stars HE 0107-5240 and HE 1327-2326) would be due to dust depletion.

First stars XIII. Two extremely metal-poor RR Lyrae stars

Context. The chemical composition of extremely metal-poor stars (EMP stars; [Fe/H] < similar to -3) is a unique tracer of early nucleosynthesis in the Galaxy. As such stars are rare, we wish to find classes of luminous stars which can be studied at high spectral resolution. Aims. We aim to determine the detailed chemical composition of the two EMP stars CS 30317-056 and CS 22881-039, originally thought to be red horizontal-branch (RHB) stars, and compare it to earlier results for EMP stars as well as to nucleosynthesis yields from various supernova (SN) models. In the analysis, we discovered that our targets are in fact the two most metal-poor RR Lyrae stars known. Methods. Our detailed abundance analysis, taking into account the variability of the stars, is based on VLT/UVES spectra (R similar or equal to 43 000) and 1D LTE OSMARCS model atmospheres and synthetic spectra. For comparison with SN models we also estimate NLTE corrections for a number of elements. Results. We derive LTE abundances for the 16 elements O, Na, Mg, Al, Si, S, Ca, Sc, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Sr and Ba, in good agreement with earlier values for EMP dwarf, giant and RHB stars. Li and C are not detected in either star. NLTE abundance corrections are newly calculated for O and Mg and taken from the literature for other elements. The resulting abundance pattern is best matched by model yields for supernova explosions with high energy and/or significant asphericity effects. Conclusions. Our results indicate that, except for Li and C, the surface composition of EMP RR Lyr stars is not significantly affected by mass loss, mixing or diffusion processes; hence, EMP RR Lyr stars should also be useful tracers of the chemical evolution of the early Galactic halo. The observed abundance ratios indicate that these stars were born from an ISM polluted by energetic, massive (25-40 M(circle dot)) and/or aspherical supernovae, but the NLTE corrections for Sc and certain other elements do play a role in the choice of model.

The chemical evolution of IC 10

Context. Dwarf irregular galaxies are relatively simple unevolved objects where it is easy to test models of galactic chemical evolution. Aims. We attempt to determine the star formation and gas accretion history of IC 10, a local dwarf irregular for which abundance, gas, and mass determinations are available. Methods. We apply detailed chemical evolution models to predict the evolution of several chemical elements (He, O, N, S) and compared our predictions with the observational data. We consider additional constraints such as the present-time gas fraction, the star formation rate (SFR), and the total estimated mass of IC 10. We assume a dark matter halo for this galaxy and study the development of a galactic wind. We consider different star formation regimes: bursting and continuous. We explore different wind situations: i) normal wind, where all the gas is lost at the same rate and ii) metal-enhanced wind, where metals produced by supernovae are preferentially lost. We study a case without wind. We vary the star formation efficiency (SFE), the wind efficiency, and the time scale of the gas infall, which are the most important parameters in our models. Results. We find that only models with metal-enhanced galactic winds can reproduce the properties of IC 10. The star formation must have proceeded in bursts rather than continuously and the bursts must have been less numerous than similar to 10 over the whole galactic lifetime. Finally, IC 10 must have formed by a slow process of gas accretion with a timescale of the order of 8 Gyr.