Is China's fifth-largest inland lake to dry-up? Incorporated hydrological and satellite-based methods for forecasting Hulun Lake water levels

Hulun Lake, China’s fifth-largest inland lake, experienced severe declines in water level in the period of 2000-2010. This has prompted concerns whether the lake is drying up gradually. A multi-million US dollar engineering project to construct a water channel to transfer part of the river flow from a nearby river to maintain the water level was completed in August 2010. This study aimed to advance the understanding of the key processes controlling the lake water level variation over the last five decades, as well as investigate the impact of the river transfer engineering project on the water level. A water balance model was developed to investigate the lake water level variations over the last five decades, using hydrological and climatic data as well as satellite-based measurements and results from land surface modelling. The investigation reveals that the severe reduction of river discharge (- 364±64 mm/yr, ~70% of the five-decade average) into the lake was the key factor behind the decline of the lake water level between 2000 and 2010. The decline of river discharge was due to the reduction of total runoff from the lake watershed. This was a result of the reduction of soil moisture due to the decrease of precipitation (-49±45 mm/yr) over this period. The water budget calculation suggests that the groundwater component from the surrounding lake area as well as surface run off from the un-gauged area surrounding the lake contributed ~ net 210 Mm3/yr (equivalent to ~ 100 mm/yr) water inflows into the lake. The results also show that the water diversion project did prevent a further water level decline of over 0.5 m by the end of 2012. Overall, the monthly water balance model gave an excellent prediction of the lake water level fluctuation over the last five decades and can be a useful tool to manage lake water resources in the future.

Rainfall infiltration and soil hydrological characteristics below ancient forest, planted forest, and grassland in a temperate northern climate

How rainfall infiltration rate and soil hydrological characteristics develop over time under forests of different ages in temperate regions is poorly understood. In this study, infiltration rate and soil hydrological characteristics were investigated under forests of different ages and under grassland. Soil hydraulic characteristics were measured at different scales under a 250 year old grazed grassland (GL), a six (6 yr) and 48 (48 yr) year old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) plantation, remnant 300 year old individual Scots pines (OT) and a 4000 year old Caledonian Forest (AF). In-situ field saturated hydraulic conductivity (Kfs) was measured and visible root:soil area was estimated from soil pits. Macroporosity, pore structure, and macropore connectivity were estimated from X-ray tomography of soil cores, and from water-release characteristics. At all scales the median values for Kfs, root fraction, macro-porosity and connectivity values tended to AF > OT > 48 yr > GL > 6 yr, indicating that infiltration rates and water storage increased with forest age. The remnant Caledonian Forest had a huge range of Kfs (12 to > 4922 mm h-1), with maximum Kfs values 7 to 15 times larger than 48-year-old Scots pine plantation, suggesting that undisturbed old forests, with high rainfall and minimal evapotranspiration in winter, may act as important areas for water storage and sinks for storm rainfall to infiltrate and transport to deeper soil layers via preferential flow. The importance of the development of soil hydrological characteristics under different aged forests is discussed.

Patient-based outcome assessment instruments in acupuncture research.

BACKGROUND: Outcome assessment can support the therapeutic process by providing a way to track symptoms and functionality over time, providing insights to clinicians and patients, as well as offering a common language to discuss patient behavior/functioning. OBJECTIVES: In this article, we examine the patient-based outcome assessment (PBOA) instruments that have been used to determine outcomes in acupuncture clinical research and highlight measures that are feasible, practical, economical, reliable, valid, and responsive to clinical change. The aims of this review were to assess and identify the commonly available PBOA measures, describe a framework for identifying appropriate sets of measures, and address the challenges associated with these measures and acupuncture. Instruments were evaluated in terms of feasibility, practicality, economy, reliability, validity, and responsiveness to clinical change. METHODS: This study was a systematic review. A total of 582 abstracts were reviewed using PubMed (from inception through April 2009). RESULTS: A total of 582 citations were identified. After screening of title/abstract, 212 articles were excluded. From the remaining 370 citations, 258 manuscripts identified explicit PBOA; 112 abstracts did not include any PBOA. The five most common PBOA instruments identified were the Visual Analog Scale, Symptom Diary, Numerical Pain Rating Scales, SF-36, and depression scales such as the Beck Depression Inventory. CONCLUSIONS: The way a questionnaire or scale is administered can have an effect on the outcome. Also, developing and validating outcome measures can be costly and difficult. Therefore, reviewing the literature on existing measures before creating or modifying PBOA instruments can significantly reduce the burden of developing a new measure.

Physical activity in US Blacks: a systematic review and critical examination of self-report instruments.

BACKGROUND: Physical activity self-report instruments in the US have largely been developed for and validated in White samples. Despite calls to validate existing instruments in more diverse samples, relatively few instruments have been validated in US Blacks. Emerging evidence suggests that these instruments may have differential validity in Black populations. PURPOSE: This report reviews and evaluates the validity and reliability of self-reported measures of physical activity in Blacks and makes recommendations for future directions. METHODS: A systematic literature review was conducted to identify published reports with construct or criterion validity evaluated in samples that included Blacks. Studies that reported results separately for Blacks were examined. RESULTS: The review identified 10 instruments validated in nine manuscripts. Criterion validity correlations tended to be low to moderate. No study has compared the validity of multiple instruments in a single sample of Blacks. CONCLUSION: There is a need for efforts validating self-report physical activity instruments in Blacks, particularly those evaluating the relative validity of instruments in a single sample.

Local models for exploratory analysis of hydrological extremes

Trend analysis is widely used for detecting changes in hydrological data. Parametric methods for this employ pre-specified models and associated tests to assess significance, whereas non-parametric methods generally apply rank tests to the data. Neither approach is suitable for exploratory analysis, because parametric models impose a particular, perhaps unsuitable, form of trend, while testing may confirm that trend is present but does not describe its form. This paper describes semi-parametric approaches to trend analysis using local likelihood fitting of annual maximum and partial duration series and illustrates their application to the exploratory analysis of changes in extremes in sea level and river flow data. Bootstrap methods are used to quantify the variability of estimates.

Relating plankton assemblages to environmental variables using instruments towed by ships-of-opportunity

Undulating Oceanographic Recorders (UORs) and Continuous Plankton Recorders (CPRs) equipped with a suite of sensors were towed by merchant vessels in the North Sea between 1988 and 1991, recording a range of environmental variables. These were used to interpret the results of analyses of the plankton taken on CPR tows off the northeast coast of the UK in 1989 and in the Skagerrak and Kattegat in July 1988 and through 1989. Correlations were found between the biota and the environmental variables. The tidal front off the northeast coast of the UK and the front between the low salinity water in the Kattegat and the higher salinity water in the Skagerrak were dominant factors correlating with the distribution of the plankton assemblages. Discontinuities, defining the positions of the fronts, in the values of physical variables (temperature and, where measured, salinity and turbidity) were closely identified with geographical divisions between plankton assemblages. Measures of irradiance were found to be important on several occasions, presumably due to diel migrations of the zooplankton.

An Enactive Approach to the Design of New Tangible Musical Instruments

In this paper, we propose a theoretical framework for the design of tangible interfaces for musical expression. The main insight for the proposed approach is the importance and utility of familiar sensorimotor experiences for the creation of engaging and playable new musical instruments. In particular, we suggest exploiting the commonalities between different natural interactions by varying the auditory response or tactile details of the instrument within certain limits. Using this principle, devices for classes of sounds such as coarse grain collision interactions or friction interactions can be designed. The designs we propose retain the familiar tactile aspect of the interaction so that the performer can take advantage of tacit knowledge gained through experiences with such phenomena in the real world.

Alternative financing instruments for Spanish cooperative

The search for funding is an ongoing task of the company, which is exacerbated, particularly in times of economic crisis, affecting also to the cooperatives. Cooperative legislation available to these entities various instruments of external financing through the issuance of securities (bonds, equity securities, special shares), to them accounts are added in participation, but without much detail in the legal texts. At work we investigate their potential, by looking, especially in those last; We seek to clarify their legal status and contrast their potential as a technical instrument, alternative for funding in the area of cooperative societies. Finally, we also see the impact of the recent Law 5/2015, of promoting business financing in the cooperative sector and ended up proposing some policy adjustments.

Calibration of assessment instruments – classification in mathematics at the Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano

Item Response Theory, IRT, is a valuable methodology for analyzing the quality of the instruments utilized in assessment of academic achievement. This article presents an implementation of the mentioned theory, particularly of the Rasch model, in order to calibrate items and the instrument used in the classification test for the Basic Mathematics subject at Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano. 509 responses chains of students, obtained in the june 2011 application, were analyzed with a set of 45 items, through eight case studies that are showing progressive steps of calibration. Criteria of validity of items and of whole instrument were defined and utilized, to select groups of responses chains and items that were finally used in the determination of parameters which then allowed the classification of assessed students by the test.