Improving the TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model for flood modelling using flood extents from Synthetic Aperture Radar images

The topography of many floodplains in the developed world has now been surveyed with high resolution sensors such as airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging), giving accurate Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) that facilitate accurate flood inundation modelling. This is not always the case for remote rivers in developing countries. However, the accuracy of DEMs produced for modelling studies on such rivers should be enhanced in the near future by the high resolution TanDEM-X WorldDEM. In a parallel development, increasing use is now being made of flood extents derived from high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images for calibrating, validating and assimilating observations into flood inundation models in order to improve these. This paper discusses an additional use of SAR flood extents, namely to improve the accuracy of the TanDEM-X DEM in the floodplain covered by the flood extents, thereby permanently improving this DEM for future flood modelling and other studies. The method is based on the fact that for larger rivers the water elevation generally changes only slowly along a reach, so that the boundary of the flood extent (the waterline) can be regarded locally as a quasi-contour. As a result, heights of adjacent pixels along a small section of waterline can be regarded as samples with a common population mean. The height of the central pixel in the section can be replaced with the average of these heights, leading to a more accurate estimate. While this will result in a reduction in the height errors along a waterline, the waterline is a linear feature in a two-dimensional space. However, improvements to the DEM heights between adjacent pairs of waterlines can also be made, because DEM heights enclosed by the higher waterline of a pair must be at least no higher than the corrected heights along the higher waterline, whereas DEM heights not enclosed by the lower waterline must in general be no lower than the corrected heights along the lower waterline. In addition, DEM heights between the higher and lower waterlines can also be assigned smaller errors because of the reduced errors on the corrected waterline heights. The method was tested on a section of the TanDEM-X Intermediate DEM (IDEM) covering an 11km reach of the Warwickshire Avon, England. Flood extents from four COSMO-SKyMed images were available at various stages of a flood in November 2012, and a LiDAR DEM was available for validation. In the area covered by the flood extents, the original IDEM heights had a mean difference from the corresponding LiDAR heights of 0.5 m with a standard deviation of 2.0 m, while the corrected heights had a mean difference of 0.3 m with standard deviation 1.2 m. These figures show that significant reductions in IDEM height bias and error can be made using the method, with the corrected error being only 60% of the original. Even if only a single SAR image obtained near the peak of the flood was used, the corrected error was only 66% of the original. The method should also be capable of improving the final TanDEM-X DEM and other DEMs, and may also be of use with data from the SWOT (Surface Water and Ocean Topography) satellite.

Transatlantic flight times and climate change

Aircraft do not fly through a vacuum, but through an atmosphere whose meteorological characteristics are changing because of global warming. The impacts of aviation on climate change have long been recognised, but the impacts of climate change on aviation have only recently begun to emerge. These impacts include intensified turbulence and increased take-off weight restrictions. Here we investigate the influence of climate change on flight routes and journey times. We feed synthetic atmospheric wind fields generated from climate model simulations into a routing algorithm of the type used operationally by flight planners. We focus on transatlantic flights between London and New York, and how they change when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is doubled. We find that a strengthening of the prevailing jet-stream winds causes eastbound flights to significantly shorten and westbound flights to significantly lengthen in all seasons. Eastbound and westbound crossings in winter become approximately twice as likely to take under 5 h 20 min and over 7 h 00 min, respectively. For reasons that are explained using a conceptual model, the eastbound shortening and westbound lengthening do not cancel out, causing round-trip journey times to increase. Even assuming no future growth in aviation, the extrapolation of our results to all transatlantic traffic suggests that aircraft will collectively be airborne for an extra 2000 h each year, burning an extra 7.2 million gallons of jet fuel at a cost of US$ 22 million, and emitting an extra 70 million kg of carbon dioxide, which is equivalent to the annual emissions of 7100 average British homes. Our results provide further evidence of the two-way interaction between aviation and climate change.

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on transatlantic flight routes and clear-air turbulence

The variation of wind-optimal transatlantic flight routes and their turbulence potential is investigated to understand how upper-level winds and large-scale flow patterns can affect the efficiency and safety of long-haul flights. In this study, the wind-optimal routes (WORs) that minimize the total flight time by considering wind variations are modeled for flights between John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) in New York, New York, and Heathrow Airport (LHR) in London, United Kingdom, during two distinct winter periods of abnormally high and low phases of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection patterns. Eastbound WORs approximate the JFK–LHR great circle (GC) route following northerly shifted jets in the +NAO period. Those WORs deviate southward following southerly shifted jets during the −NAO period, because eastbound WORs fly closely to the prevailing westerly jets to maximize tailwinds. Westbound WORs, however, spread meridionally to avoid the jets near the GC in the +NAO period to minimize headwinds. In the −NAO period, westbound WORs are north of the GC because of the southerly shifted jets. Consequently, eastbound WORs are faster but have higher probabilities of encountering clear-air turbulence than westbound ones, because eastbound WORs are close to the jet streams, especially near the cyclonic shear side of the jets in the northern (southern) part of the GC in the +NAO (−NAO) period. This study suggests how predicted teleconnection weather patterns can be used for long-haul strategic flight planning, ultimately contributing to minimizing aviation’s impact on the environment

Brazilian indexing and inertial inflation: evidence from time-varying estimates of an inflation transfer function

This paper is a theoretica1 and empirica1 study of the re1ationship between indexing po1icy and feedback mechanisms in the inflationary adjustment process in Brazil. The focus of our study is on two policy issues: (1) did the Brazilian system of indexing of interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages make inflation so dependent on its own past values that it created a significant feedback process and inertia in the behaviour of inflation in and (2) was the feedback effect of past inf1ation upon itself so strong that dominated the effect of monetary/fiscal variables upon current inflation? This paper develops a simple model designed to capture several "stylized facts" of Brazi1ian indexing po1icy. Separate ru1es of "backward indexing" for interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages, reflecting the evolution of po1icy changes in Brazil, are incorporated in a two-sector model of industrial and agricultural prices. A transfer function derived irom this mode1 shows inflation depending on three factors: (1) past values of inflation, (2) monetary and fiscal variables, and (3) supply- .shock variables. The indexing rules for interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages place restrictions on the coefficients of the transfer function. Variations in the policy-determined parameters of the indexing rules imply changes in the coefficients of the transfer function for inflation. One implication of this model, in contrast to previous results derived in analytically simpler models of indexing, is that a higher degree of indexing does not make current inflation more responsive to current monetary shocks. The empirical section of this paper studies the central hypotheses of this model through estimation of the inflation transfer function with time-varying parameters. The results show a systematic non-random variation of the transfer function coefficients closely synchronized with changes in the observed values of the wage-indexing parameters. Non-parametric tests show the variation of the transfer function coefficients to be statistically significant at the time of the changes in wage indexing rules in Brazil. As the degree of indexing increased, the inflation feadback coefficients increased, while the effect of external price and agricultura shocs progressively increased and monetary effects progressively decreased.

Emerging infectious diseases in cetaceans worldwide and the possible role of environmental stressors

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Forensic electrochemistry: indirect electrochemical sensing of the components of the new psychoactive substance Synthacaine

Synthacaine is a New Psychoactive Substance which is, due to its inherent psychoactive properties, reported to imitate the effects of cocaine and is therefore consequently branded as legal cocaine. The only analytical approach reported to date for the sensing of Synthacaine is mass spectrometry. In this paper, we explore and evaluate a range of potential analytical techniques for its quantification and potential use in the field screening Synthacaine using Raman spectroscopy, presumptive (colour) testing, High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) and electrochemistry. HPLC analysis of street samples reveals that Synthacaine comprises a mixture of methiopropamine (MPA) and 2-aminoindane (2-AI). Raman spectroscopy and presumptive (colour) tests, the Marquis, Mandelin, Simon's and Robadope test, are evaluated towards a potential in-the-field screening approach but are found to not be able to discriminate between the two when they are both present in the same sample, as is the case in the real street samples. We report for the first time a novel indirect electrochemical protocol for the sensing of MPA and 2-AI which is independently validated in street samples with HPLC. This novel electrochemical approach based upon one-shot disposable cost effective screen-printed graphite macroelectrodes holds potential for in-the-field screening for Synthacaine.

A note on the unprecedented strandings of 56 deep-diving whales along the UK and Irish coast

In the first seven months of 2008, eighteen Cuvier’s beaked whales (Ziphius cavirostris), four Sowerby’s beaked whales (Mesoplodon bidens), five unidentified beaked whales and twenty-nine long-finned pilot whales (Globicephala melas) were reported stranded in the UK and Ireland. Decomposition of those animals investigated puts the predicted time of death at mid-January. Concerns that an unusual mortality event had taken place prompted further investigations. Most carcasses were too decomposed for necropsy. A summary of findings is presented here. Although the initial stranding of five Cuvier’s beaked whales in Scotland shared some similarities with atypical mass stranding events linked in time and space to mid-frequency naval sonars, there were two important differences with the remaining strandings during this period. First, the geographical range of the event was very wide and second, the strandings occurred over a prolonged period of several months. Both of these factors could be related to the fact that the mortalities occurred offshore and the carcasses drifted ashore. The cause(s) of this high number of strandings of mixed offshore cetacean species during this period remain undetermined.

PUBLIC POLICY EDUCATION: AN IMPORTANT WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT OPPORTUNITY

Suburban wildlife management issues are generating heated debate between citizen organizations, elected public officials, and state wildlife management agencies. Decisions are being made by town and county officials which directly impact or supersede state authority for managing resident wildlife. As an example, I will focus this discussion on the white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), management controversy at Durand Eastman Park, in the greater Rochester metropolitan area, New York.

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE PRIVATE NUISANCE WILDLIFE CONTROL INDUSTRY IN NEW YORK

The nuisance wildlife control industry is rapidly expanding in New York State. To gain additional insight about this industry and the number of animals handled, we reviewed the 1989-90 annual logs submitted by Nuisance Wildlife Control Orators (NWC0s) to the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC). The specific objectives of this study were to determine: (1) the number and species of different wildlife responsible for damage incidents, (2) the cause of damage complaints, (3) the disposition of animals handled, (4) the location of damage events (i.e., urban, suburban, rural), and (5) an estimate of the economic impact of the nuisance wildlife industry in Upstate New York. The Nuisance Wildlife Logs (NWLs) were examined for 7 urban and 7 rural counties (25.5% of Upstate counties), and these data were used to estimate total NWCO activity in DEC Regions 3 through 9 (excludes Long Island). Approximately 75% of NWCOs licensed by DEC were active during 1989-90, and nearly 2,800 complaints were handled in the 14 counties sampled. More than 90% of complaints came from urban counties, and we estimated that NWC0s responded to more than 11,000 calls in Upstate New York. At a conservative estimate of $35/call, revenue generated by this industry exceeded $385,000 annually. Six wildlife species accounted for 85% of the nuisance complaints in urban and rural counties. During 1986 to 1993, the number of NWCOs licensed by DEC nearly quadrupled, and there is no indication that this trend will change in the near future.

Factors controlling water-column respiration in rivers of the central and southwestern Amazon Basin

We examined the factors controlling the variability in water-column respiration rates in Amazonian rivers. Our objectives were to determine the relationship between respiration rates and the in situ concentrations of the size classes of organic carbon (OC), and the biological source (C-3 and C-4 plants and phytoplankton) of organic matter (OM) supporting respiration. Respiration was measured along with OC size fractions and dissolved oxygen isotopes (delta O-18-O-2) in rivers of the central and southwestern Amazon Basin. Rates ranged from 0.034 mu mol O-2 L-1 h(-1) to 1.78 mu mol O-2 L-1 h(-1), and were four-fold higher in rivers with evidence of photosynthetic production (demonstrated by delta O-18-O-2<24.2 parts per thousand) as compared to rivers lacking such evidence (delta O-18-O-2>24.2 parts per thousand; 1.35 +/- 0.22 vs. 0.30 +/- 0.29 mu mol L-1 h(-1)). Rates were likely elevated in the former rivers, which were all sampled during low water, due to the stimulation of heterotrophic respiration via the supply of a labile, algal-derived substrate and/or the occurrence of autotrophic respiration. The organic composition of fine particulate OM (FPOM) of these rivers is consistent with a phytoplankton origin. Multiple linear regression analysis indicates that [FPOC], C:N-FPOC ratios, and [O-2] account for a high amount of the variability in respiration rates (r(2) = 0.80). Accordingly, FPOC derived from algal sources is associated with elevated respiration rates. The delta C-13 of respiration-derived CO2 indicates that the role of phytoplankton, C-3 plants, and C-4 grasses in supporting respiration is temporally and spatially variable. Future scaling work is needed to evaluate the significance of phytoplankton production to basin-wide carbon cycling.

Does intravenous Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol increase dopamine release? A SPET study

Intravenous (IV) Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) induces transient psychotic symptoms in healthy subjects and in schizophrenic patients, but the psychotomimetic mechanism is unknown. One possibility is that THC stimulates dopamine (DA) release in the striatum. In this study we tested whether IV THC led to an increase in striatal DA release compared to placebo. We also investigated whether DA release and positive psychotic symptoms were related. Eleven healthy male volunteers completed two 123I-iodobenzamide ([123I]IBZM) single photon emission tomography (SPET) sessions and received IV THC (2.5 mg) or placebo in a randomized counterbalanced order, under double-blind conditions. Analysable data were obtained from nine participants. The Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) was used to rate psychotomimetic effects. Striatal binding index values were calculated using the occipital cortex as a reference region. Both the PANSS positive and general symptoms increased significantly at 30 min following IV THC. There were no significant differences in binding index in the caudate or putamen under THC compared to placebo conditions. Positive psychotic symptoms and DA release were unrelated. THC did not lead to a significant increase in DA release even though the dose was sufficient for participants to have psychotic symptoms. These findings do not support a central role for striatal DA in THC-elicited psychosis.

Cannabidiol inhibits THC-elicited paranoid symptoms and hippocampal-dependent memory impairment

Community-based studies suggest that cannabis products that are high in Δ⁹-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) but low in cannabidiol (CBD) are particularly hazardous for mental health. Laboratory-based studies are ideal for clarifying this issue because THC and CBD can be administered in pure form, under controlled conditions. In a between-subjects design, we tested the hypothesis that pre-treatment with CBD inhibited THC-elicited psychosis and cognitive impairment. Healthy participants were randomised to receive oral CBD 600 mg (n=22) or placebo (n=26), 210 min ahead of intravenous (IV) THC (1.5 mg). Post-THC, there were lower PANSS positive scores in the CBD group, but this did not reach statistical significance. However, clinically significant positive psychotic symptoms (defined a priori as increases ≥ 3 points) were less likely in the CBD group compared with the placebo group, odds ratio (OR)=0.22 (χ²=4.74, p<0.05). In agreement, post-THC paranoia, as rated with the State Social Paranoia Scale (SSPS), was less in the CBD group compared with the placebo group (t=2.28, p<0.05). Episodic memory, indexed by scores on the Hopkins Verbal Learning Task-revised (HVLT-R), was poorer, relative to baseline, in the placebo pre-treated group (-10.6 ± 18.9%) compared with the CBD group (-0.4% ± 9.7 %) (t=2.39, p<0.05). These findings support the idea that high-THC/low-CBD cannabis products are associated with increased risks for mental health.

Consensus statement for inert gas washout measurement using multiple- and single- breath tests

Inert gas washout tests, performed using the single- or multiple-breath washout technique, were first described over 60 years ago. As measures of ventilation distribution inhomogeneity, they offer complementary information to standard lung function tests, such as spirometry, as well as improved feasibility across wider age ranges and improved sensitivity in the detection of early lung damage. These benefits have led to a resurgence of interest in these techniques from manufacturers, clinicians and researchers, yet detailed guidelines for washout equipment specifications, test performance and analysis are lacking. This manuscript provides recommendations about these aspects, applicable to both the paediatric and adult testing environment, whilst outlining the important principles that are essential for the reader to understand. These recommendations are evidence based, where possible, but in many places represent expert opinion from a working group with a large collective experience in the techniques discussed. Finally, the important issues that remain unanswered are highlighted. By addressing these important issues and directing future research, the hope is to facilitate the incorporation of these promising tests into routine clinical practice.