Varianza analitica y aproximada del costo total de un proyecto

La varianza estadística del costo total de un proyecto usualmente se estima por medio de la simulación de Monte Carlo, bajo el supuesto de que los acercamientos analíticos son demasiado complicados. Este artículo analiza este supuesto y muestra que, contrario a lo esperado, la solución analítica es relativamente directa. También se muestra que el coeficiente de variación no se ve afectado por el tamaño (área superficial) del proyecto cuando se usan los costos de los componentes estandarizados. Se provee un caso de estudio en el cual se analizan los costos reales de los componentes para obtener la varianza del costo total requerida. Los resultados confirman trabajos previos al mostrar que la aproximación del segundo momento (varianza) bajo el supuesto de independencia subestima considerablemente el valor exacto. El análisis continua examinando los efectos del juicio profesional y con los datos simulados utilizados, la aproximación resulta razonablemente exacta - el juicio profesional absorbe la mayor parte de las intercorrelaciones involucradas. También se da un ejemplo en el cual las cantidades de los componentes unitarios son valoradas por sus costos unitarios promedios y muestra, una vez más, que la aproximación es cercana al valor real. Finalmente, el trabajo se extiende mostrando cómo obtener, para cada proyecto, las varianzas exactas del costo total.

Rapid quantification of methamphetamine: using Attenuated Total Reflectance Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR) and Chemometrics

In Australia and increasingly worldwide, methamphetamine is one of the most commonly seized drugs analysed by forensic chemists. The current well-established GC/MS methods used to identify and quantify methamphetamine are lengthy, expensive processes, but often rapid analysis is requested by undercover police leading to an interest in developing this new analytical technique. Ninety six illicit drug seizures containing methamphetamine (0.1% - 78.6%) were analysed using Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy with an Attenuated Total Reflectance attachment and Chemometrics. Two Partial Least Squares models were developed, one using the principal Infrared Spectroscopy peaks of methamphetamine and the other a Hierarchical Partial Least Squares model. Both of these models were refined to choose the variables that were most closely associated with the methamphetamine % vector. Both of the models were excellent, with the principal peaks in the Partial Least Squares model having Root Mean Square Error of Prediction 3.8, R2 0.9779 and lower limit of quantification 7% methamphetamine. The Hierarchical Partial Least Squares model had lower limit of quantification 0.3% methamphetamine, Root Mean Square Error of Prediction 5.2 and R2 0.9637. Such models offer rapid and effective methods for screening illicit drug samples to determine the percentage of methamphetamine they contain.

Metal ion levels post unilateral primary Exeter total hip replacement

There has been much discussion and controversy in the media recently regarding metal toxicity following large head metal on metal (MoM) total hip replacement (THR). Patients have been reported as having hugely elevated levels of metal ions with, at times, devastating systemic, neurolgical and/or orthopaedic sequelae. However, no direct correlation between metal ion level and severity of metallosis has yet been defined. Normative levels of metal ions in well functioning, non Cobalt-Chrome hips have also not been defined to date. The Exeter total hip replacement contains no Cobalt-Chrome (Co-Cr) as it is made entirely from stainless steel. However, small levels of these metals may be present in the modular head of the prosthesis, and their effect on metal ion levels in the well functioning patient has not been investigated. We proposed to define the “normal” levels of metal ions detected by blood test in 20 well functioning patients at a minimum 1 year post primary Exeter total hip replacement, where the patient had had only one joint replaced. Presently, accepted normal levels of blood Chromium are 10–100 nmol/L and plasma Cobalt are 0–20 nmol/L. The UK Modern Humanities Research Association (MHRA) has suggested that levels of either Cobalt or Chromium above 7 ppb (equivalent to 135 nmol/L for Chromium and 120 nmol/L for Cobalt) may be significant. Below this level it is indicated that significant soft tissue reaction and tissue damage is less likely and the risk of implant failure is reduced. Hips were a mixture of cemented and hybrid procedures performed by two experienced orthopaedic consultants. Seventy percent were female, with a mixture of head sizes used. In our cohort, there were no cases where the blood Chromium levels were above the normal range, and in more than 70% of cases, levels were below recordable levels. There were also no cases of elevated plasma Cobalt levels, and in 35% of cases, levels were negligible. We conclude that the implantation with an Exeter total hip replacement does not lead to elevation of blood metal ion levels.

Most relevant strategies for preventing surgical site infection after total hip arthroplasty : guideline recommendations and expert opinion

BACKGROUND: Numerous strategies are available to prevent surgical site infections in hip arthroplasty, but there is no consensus on which might be the best. This study examined infection prevention strategies currently recommended for patients undergoing hip arthroplasty. METHODS: Four clinical guidelines on infection prevention/orthopedics were reviewed. Infection control practitioners, infectious disease physicians, and orthopedic surgeons were consulted through structured interviews and an online survey. Strategies were classified as "highly important" if they were recommended by at least one guideline and ranked as significantly or critically important by >/=75% of the experts. RESULTS: The guideline review yielded 28 infection prevention measures, with 7 identified by experts as being highly important in this context: antibiotic prophylaxis, antiseptic skin preparation of patients, hand/forearm antisepsis by surgical staff, sterile gowns/surgical attire, ultraclean/laminar air operating theatres, antibiotic-impregnated cement, and surveillance. Controversial measures included antibiotic-impregnated cement and, considering recent literature, laminar air operating theatres. CONCLUSIONS: Some of these measures may already be accepted as routine clinical practice, whereas others are controversial. Whether these practices should be continued for this patient group will be informed by modeling the cost-effectiveness of infection prevention strategies. This will allow predictions of long-term health and cost outcomes and thus inform decisions on how to best use scarce health care resources for infection control.

The use of navigation to achieve soft tissue balance in total knee arthroplasty : a randomised clinical study

Background: Achieving soft tissue balance is an operative goal in total knee arthroplasty. This randomised, prospective study compared computer navigation to conventional techniques in achieving soft tissue balance. Methods: Forty one consecutive knee arthroplasties were randomised to either a non-navigated or navigated group. In the non-navigated group, balancing was carried out using surgeon judgement. In the navigated group, balancing was carried out using navigation software. In both groups, the navigation software was used as a measuring tool. Results: Balancing of the mediolateral extension gap was superior in the navigation group (p=0.001). No significant difference was found between the two groups in balancing the mediolateral flexion gap or in achieving equal flexion and extension gaps. Conclusions: Computer navigation offered little advantage over experienced surgeon judgement in achieving soft tissue balance in knee replacement. However, the method employed in the navigated group did provide a reproducible and objective assessment of flexion and extension gaps and may therefore benefit surgeons in training.

NSAM-derived total surface area vs. SMPS-derived "mobility equivalent" surface area for different environmentally relevant aerosols

The surface area of inhaled particles deposited in the alveolar region, as reported by the TSI nanoparticle surface area monitor (NSAM), was compared with the corresponding value estimated by a TSI scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) for a range of environmentally relevant aerosols, including petrol emissions, ETS, laser printer emissions, cooking emissions and ambient aerosols. The SMPS values were based on a mobility size distribution assuming spherical particles using the appropriate size-dependent alveolar-deposition factors provided by the ICRP. In most cases, the two instruments showed good linear agreement. With petrol emissions and ETS, the linearity extended to over 103 μm2 cm-3. With printer emissions, there was good linearity up to about 300 μm2 cm-3 while the NSAM increasingly overestimated the surface area at higher concentrations. The presence of a nucleation event in ambient air caused the NSAM to over-estimate the surface area by a factor of 2. We summarize these results and conclude that the maximum number concentration up to which the NSAM is accurate clearly depends on the type of aerosol being sampled and provide guidance for the use of the instrument.

Postprandial total and HMW adiponectin following a high-fat meal in lean, obese and diabetic men

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Recent work suggests that macronutrients are pro-inflammatory and promote oxidative stress. Reports of postprandial regulation of total adiponectin have been mixed, and there is limited information regarding postprandial changes in high molecular weight (HMW) adiponectin. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of a standardised high-fat meal on metabolic variables, adiponectin (total and HMW), and markers of inflammation and oxidative stress in: (i) lean, (ii) obese non-diabetic and (iii) men with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). SUBJECTS/METHODS: Male subjects: lean (n=10), obese (n=10) and T2DM (n=10) were studied for 6 h following both a high-fat meal and water control. Metabolic variables (glucose, insulin, triglycerides), inflammatory markers (interleukin-6 (IL6), tumour necrosis factor (TNF)α, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), nuclear factor (NF)κB expression in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (p65)), indicators of oxidative stress (oxidised low density lipoprotein (oxLDL), protein carbonyl) and adiponectin (total and HMW) were measured. RESULTS: No significant changes in TNFα, p65, oxLDL or protein carbonyl concentrations were observed. Overall, postprandial IL6 decreased in subjects with T2DM but increased in lean subjects, whereas hsCRP decreased in the lean cohort and increased in obese subjects. There was no overall postprandial change in total or HMW adiponectin in any group. Total adiponectin concentrations changed over time following the water control, and the response was significantly different in lean subjects compared with subjects with T2DM (P=0.04). CONCLUSIONS: No consistent significant postprandial inflammation, oxidative stress or regulation of adiponectin was observed in this study. Findings from the water control suggest differential basal regulation of total adiponectin in T2DM compared with lean controls.

Complications of perioperative warfarin therapy in total knee arthroplasty

Patients presenting for knee replacement on warfarin for medical reasons often require higher levels of anticoagulation peri-operatively than primary thromboprophylaxis and may require bridging therapy with heparin. We performed a retrospective case control study on 149 consecutive primary knee arthroplasty patients to investigate whether anti-coagulation affected short-term outcomes. Specific outcome measures indicated significant increases in prolonged wound drainage (26.8% of cases vs 7.3% of controls, p<0.001); superficial infection (16.8% vs 3.3%, p<0.001); deep infection (6.0% vs 0%, p<0.001); return-to-theatre for washout (4.7% vs 0.7%, p=0.004); and revision (4.7% vs 0.3%, p=0.001). Management of patients on long-term warfarin therapy following TKR is particularly challenging, as the surgeon must balance risk of thromboembolism against post-operative complications on an individual patient basis in order to optimise outcomes.

Anatomic fitting of total artificial hearts for in vivo evaluation

Successful anatomic fitting of a total artificial heart (TAH) is vital to achieve optimal pump hemodynamics after device implantation. Although many anatomic fitting studies have been completed in humans prior to clinical trials, few reports exist that detail the experience in animals for in vivo device evaluation. Optimal hemodynamics are crucial throughout the in vivo phase to direct design iterations and ultimately validate device performance prior to pivotal human trials. In vivo evaluation in a sheep model allows a realistically sized representation of a smaller patient, for which smaller third-generation TAHs have the potential to treat. Our study aimed to assess the anatomic fit of a single device rotary TAH in sheep prior to animal trials and to use the data to develop a threedimensional, computer-aided design (CAD)-operated anatomic fitting tool for future TAH development. Following excision of the native ventricles above the atrio-ventricular groove, a prototype TAH was inserted within the chest cavity of six sheep (28–40 kg).Adjustable rods representing inlet and outlet conduits were oriented toward the center of each atrial chamber and the great vessels, with conduit lengths and angles recorded for future analysis. A threedimensional, CAD-operated anatomic fitting tool was then developed, based on the results of this study, and used to determine the inflow and outflow conduit orientation of the TAH. The mean diameters of the sheep left atrium, right atrium, aorta, and pulmonary artery were 39, 33, 12, and 11 mm, respectively. The center-to-center distance and outer-edge-to-outer-edge distance between the atria, found to be 39 ± 9 mm and 72 ± 17 mm in this study, were identified as the most critical geometries for successful TAH connection. This geometric constraint restricts the maximum separation allowable between left and right inlet ports of a TAH to ensure successful alignment within the available atrial circumference.

Using technology to change adult sedentary behaviour, physical activity levels and total wellness

This thesis studied technology’s role in promoting and supporting active lifestyles through behavioural strategies to reduce sedentary time and increase physical activity. The five studies included (1) development of a self-report instrument quantifying daily sedentary behaviour and light-intensity physical activity; (2) establishment of instrument validity and reliability; (3) use of an online personal activity monitor to successfully reduce sedentary time and increase physical activity; (4) identification of positive differences in total wellness as related to high/low levels of sitting time combined with insufficient/sufficient physical activity; and (5) improvement of total wellness through positive changes in sedentary behaviour and physical activity.

Physical activity, sedentary behavior and total wellness changes among sedentary adults : a 4-week randomized controlled trial

Background The construct of total wellness includes a holistic approach to the body, mind and spirit components of life. While the health benefits of reducing sedentary behavior and increasing physical activity are well documented, little is known about the influence on total wellness of an internet-based physical activity monitor designed to help people to achieve higher physical activity levels. Purpose The purpose of this four-week, personal activity monitor-based intervention program was to reduce sedentary behavior and increase physical activity levels in daily living for sedentary adults and to determine if these changes would also be associated with improvement in total wellness. Methods Twenty-two men and 11 women (27 years ± 4.0) were randomly assigned to either an intervention (n = 18) or control group (n = 15). The intervention group interacted with an online personal activity monitor (Gruve Solution™) designed to reduce sedentary time and increase physical activity during activities of daily living. The control group did not interact with the monitor, as they were asked to follow their normal daily physical activities and sedentary behavior routines. The Wellness Evaluation of Lifestyle (WEL) inventory was used to assess total wellness. Sedentary time, light, walking, moderate and vigorous intensity physical activities were assessed for both intervention and control groups at baseline and at week-4 by the 7-day Sedentary and Light Intensity Physical Activity Log (7-day SLIPA Log) and the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ). Results Significant increases in pre-post total wellness scores (from 64% ± 5.7 to 75% ± 8.5) (t (17) = -6.5, p < 0.001) were observed in the intervention group by the end of week four. Intervention participants decreased their sedentary time (21%, 2.3 hours/day) and increased their light (36.7%, 2.5 hours/day), walking (65%, 1057 MET-min/week), moderate (67%, 455 MET-min/week) and vigorous intensity (60%, 442 MET-min/week) physical activity (all p < 0.001). No significant differences for total wellness were observed between the groups at baseline and no pre-post significant differences were observed for any outcome variable in the control group. Conclusion Total wellness is improved when sedentary, but sufficiently physically active adults, reduce sedentary time and increase physical activity levels (i.e. light, walking, moderate and vigorous).

Quality demand in vaccination and how to improve service quality under Total Quality Control [论全面质量管理模式下预防接种工作的质量要求与改进对策]

Under the concept of Total Quality Control, based on their experience, the authors discussed potential demand for quality of immunization services and possible solutions to these demands. Abstract in Chinese 全面质量管理(total quality control,TQC)是在20世纪60年代由美国人V,Feigonbaum和J.unan先后提出的新的质量管理观念,众所周知的ISO9000族标准即建立在TQC理念下的质量管理标准,该标准已成为当今世界全球一致、最具权威的质量管理和质量保证的国际规则[1-2].21世纪是质量世纪,推行TQC,不断改进产品和服务质量,目前已成为我国各行各业在不断激烈的市场竞争下完善自我、保证生存和发展的重要手段.实施预防接种是预防和控制传染病,保护人群健康的重要措施,预防接种工作中,产品即预防接种服务,需方(顾客)为接受预防接种服务的广大人群,是产品的消费者.随社会的迅速发展,人们对健康需求的不断提高,对预防接种工作也提出了更高的质量要求.本文对TQC模式下顾客对预防接种服务的质量要求进行了综合分析,并对如何改进服务质量进行了初步探讨.

Design of physiological control and magnetic levitation systems for a total artificial heart

Total Artificial Hearts are mechanical pumps which can be used to replace the failing natural heart. This novel study developed a means of controlling a new design of pump to reproduce physiological flow bringing closer the realisation of a practical artificial heart. Using a mathematical model of the device, an optimisation algorithm was used to determine the best configuration for the magnetic levitation system of the pump. The prototype device was constructed and tested in a mock circulation loop. A physiological controller was designed to replicate the Frank-Starling like balancing behaviour of the natural heart. The device and controller provided sufficient support for a human patient while also demonstrating good response to various physiological conditions and events. This novel work brings the design of a practical artificial heart closer to realisation.

Total heat transfer measurements on a flight investigation of reentry environment model

Stagnation-point total heat transfer was measured on a 1:27.7 model of the Flight Investigation of Reentry Environment II flight vehicle. Experiments were performed in the X1 expansion tube at an equivalent flight velocity and static enthalpy of 11 km/s and 12.7 MJ/kg, respectively. Conditions were chosen to replicate the flight condition at a total flight time of 1639.5 s, where radiation contributed an estimated 17-36% of the total heat transfer. This contribution is theorized to reduce to <2% in the scaled experiments, and the heating environment on the test model was expected to be dominated by convection. A correlation between reported flight heating rates and expected experimental heating, referred to as the reduced flight value, was developed to predict the level of heating expected on the test model. At the given flow conditions, the reduced flight value was calculated to be 150 MW/m2. Average stagnation-point total heat transfer was measured to be 140 ± 7% W/m2, showing good agreement with the predicted value. Experimentally measured heat transfer was found to have good agreement of between 5 and 15% with a number of convective heating correlations, confirming that convection dominates the tunnel heating environment, and that useful experimental measurements could be made in weakly coupled radiating flow