Mapping the dynamics of the project management field : project management in action (part 5)

This is the fifth part of a Letter From the Editor series where the results are presented of an ongoing research undertaken in order to investigate the dynamic of the evolution of the field of project management and the key trends. I present some general findings and the strategic diagrams generated for each of the time periods introduced herein and discuss what we can learn from them on a general standpoint. I will develop and discuss some detailed findings in future Letter From the Editor articles...

Dimensions of the venture creation process : amount, dynamics, and sequences of action in nascent entrepreneurship

This research examines the entrepreneurship phenomenon, and the question: Why are some venture attempts more successful than others? This question is not a new one. Prior research has answered this by describing those that engage in nascent entrepreneurship. Yet, this approach yielded little consensus and offers little comfort for those newly considering venture creation (Gartner, 1988). Rather, this research considers the process of venture creation, by focusing on the actions of nascent entrepreneurs. However, the venture creation process is complex (Liao, Welsch, & Tan, 2005), and multi-dimensional (Davidsson, 2004). The process can vary in the amount of action engaged by the entrepreneur; the temporal dynamics of how action is enacted (Lichtenstein, Carter, Dooley, and Gartner 2007); or the sequence in which actions are undertaken. And little is known about whether any, or all three, of these dimensions matter. Further, there exists scant general knowledge about how the venture creation process influences venture creation outcomes (Gartner & Shaver, 2011). Therefore, this research conducts a systematic study of what entrepreneurs do as they create a new venture. The primary goal is to develop general principles so that advice may be offered on how to ‘proceed’, rather than how to ‘be’. Three integrated empirical studies were conducted that separately focus on each of the interrelated dimensions. The basis for this was a randomly sampled, longitudinal panel, of nascent ventures. Upon recruitment these ventures were in the process of being created, but yet to be established as new businesses. The ventures were tracked one year latter to follow up on outcomes. Accordingly, this research makes the following original contributions to knowledge. First, the findings suggest that all three of the dimensions play an important role: action, dynamics, and sequence. This implies that future research should take a multi-dimensional view of the venture creation process. Failing to do so can only result in a limited understanding of a complex phenomenon. Second, action is the fundamental means through which venture creation is achieved. Simply put, more active venture creation efforts are more likely more successful. Further, action is the medium which allows resource endowments their effect upon venture outcomes. Third, the dynamics of how venture creation plays out over time is also influential. Here, a process with a high rate of action which increases in intensity will more likely achieve positive outcomes. Forth, sequence analysis, suggests that the order in which actions are taken will also drive outcomes. Although venture creation generally flows in sequence from discovery toward exploitation (Shane & Venkataraman, 2000; Eckhardt & Shane, 2003; Shane, 2003), processes that actually proceed in this way are less likely to be realized. Instead, processes which specifically intertwine discovery and exploitation action together in symbiosis more likely achieve better outcomes (Sarasvathy, 2001; Baker, Miner, & Eesley, 2003). Further, an optimal venture creation order exists somewhere between these sequential and symbiotic process archetypes. A process which starts out as symbiotic discovery and exploitation, but switches to focus exclusively on exploitation later on is most likely to achieve venture creation. These sequence findings are unique, and suggest future integration between opposing theories for order in venture creation.

Principles of motor learning in ecological dynamics : a comment on functions of learning and the acquisition of motor skills (with reference to sport)

This paper provides a commentary on the contribution by Dr Chow who questioned whether the functions of learning are general across all categories of tasks or whether there are some task-particular aspects to the functions of learning in relation to task type. Specifically, they queried whether principles and practice for the acquisition of sport skills are different than what they are for musical, industrial, military and human factors skills. In this commentary we argue that ecological dynamics contains general principles of motor learning that can be instantiated in specific performance contexts to underpin learning design. In this proposal, we highlight the importance of conducting skill acquisition research in sport, rather than relying on empirical outcomes of research from a variety of different performance contexts. Here we discuss how task constraints of different performance contexts (sport, industry, military, music) provide different specific information sources that individuals use to couple their actions when performing and acquiring skills. We conclude by suggesting that his relationship between performance task constraints and learning processes might help explain the traditional emphasis on performance curves and performance outcomes to infer motor learning.

Optical data encryption using time-dependent dynamics of refractive index changes in LiNbO3

We present a method for optical encryption of information, based on the time-dependent dynamics of writing and erasure of refractive index changes in a bulk lithium niobate medium. Information is written into the photorefractive crystal with a spatially amplitude modulated laser beam which when overexposed significantly degrades the stored data making it unrecognizable. We show that the degradation can be reversed and that a one-to-one relationship exists between the degradation and recovery rates. It is shown that this simple relationship can be used to determine the erasure time required for decrypting the scrambled index patterns. In addition, this method could be used as a straightforward general technique for determining characteristic writing and erasure rates in photorefractive media.

The dynamics of cellular automata on 2-manifolds is affected by topology

In this paper, we demonstrate that the distribution of Wolfram classes within a cellular automata rule space in the triangular tessellation is not consistent across different topological general. Using a statistical mechanics approach, cellular automata dynamical classes were approximated for cellular automata defined on genus-0, genus-1 and genus-2 2-manifolds. A distribution-free equality test for empirical distributions was applied to identify cases in which Wolfram classes were distributed differently across topologies. This result implies that global structure and local dynamics contribute to the long term evolution of cellular automata.

Habitat dynamics in the bed sediments of an intermittent upland stream

The effects of the hydrological regime on temporal changes to physical characteristics of substratum habitat, sediment texture of surface sediments (<10 cm), were investigated in a sub-tropical headwater stream over four years. Surface discharge was measured together with vertical hydraulic gradient and groundwater depth in order to explore features of sediment habitat that extend beyond the streambed surface. Whilst the typical discharge pattern was one of intermittent base flows and infrequent flow events associated with monsoonal rain patterns, the study period also encompassed a drought and a one-in-a-hundred-year flood. Rainfall and discharge did not necessarily reflect the actual conditions in the stream. Although surface waters were persistent long after discharge ceased, the streambed was completely dry on several occasions. Shallow groundwater was present at variable depths throughout the study period, being absent only at the height of the drought. The streambed sediments were mainly gravels, sand and clay. Finer sediment fractions showed a marked change in grain size over time, although bedload movement was limited to a single high discharge event. In response to a low discharge regimen (drought), sediments characteristically showed non-normal distributions and were dominated by finer materials. A high-energy discharge event produced a coarsening of sands and a diminished clay fraction in the streambed. Particulate organic matter from sediments showed trends of build-up and decline with the high and low discharge regimes, respectively. Within the surface sediment intersticies three potential categories of invertebrate habitat were recognised, each with dynamic spatial and temporal boundaries.

Inter-seasonal population dynamics and pest status of Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius) biotype B in an Australian cropping system

Bemisia tabaci, biotype B, commonly known as the silverleaf whitefly (SLW) is an alien species that invaded Australia in the mid-90s. This paper reports on the invasion ecology of SLW and the factors that are likely to have contributed to the first outbreak of this major pest in an Australian cotton cropping system, population dynamics of SLW within whitefly-susceptible crop (cotton and cucurbit) and non-crop vegetation (sowthistle, Sonchus spp.) components of the cropping system were investigated over four consecutive growing seasons (September-June) 2001/02-2004/05 in the Emerald Irrigation Area (EIA) of Queensland, Australia. Based on fixed geo-referenced sampling sites, variation in spatial and temporal abundance of SLW within each system component was quantified to provide baseline data for the development of ecologically sustainable pest management strategies. Parasitism of large (3rd and 4th instars) SLW nymphs by native aphelinid wasps was quantified to determine the potential for natural control of SLW populations. Following the initial outbreak in 2001/02, SLW abundance declined and stabilised over the next three seasons. The population dynamics of SLW is characterised by inter-seasonal population cycling between the non-crop (weed) and cotton components of the EIA cropping system. Cotton was the largest sink for and source of SLW during the study period. Over-wintering populations dispersed from weed host plant sources to cotton in spring followed by a reverse dispersal in late summer and autumn to broad-leaved crops and weeds. A basic spatial source-sink analysis showed that SLW adult and nymph densities were higher in cotton fields that were closer to over-wintering weed sources throughout spring than in fields that were further away. Cucurbit fields were not significant sources of SLW and did not appear to contribute significantly to the regional population dynamics of the pest. Substantial parasitism of nymphal stages throughout the study period indicates that native parasitoid species and other natural enemies are important sources of SLW mortality in Australian cotton production systems. Weather conditions and use of broad-spectrum insecticides for pest control are implicated in the initial outbreak and on-going pest status of SLW in the region.

Modelling the movement of interacting cell populations: A moment dynamics approach

Mathematical models describing the movement of multiple interacting subpopulations are relevant to many biological and ecological processes. Standard mean-field partial differential equation descriptions of these processes suffer from the limitation that they implicitly neglect to incorporate the impact of spatial correlations and clustering. To overcome this, we derive a moment dynamics description of a discrete stochastic process which describes the spreading of distinct interacting subpopulations. In particular, we motivate our model by mimicking the geometry of two typical cell biology experiments. Comparing the performance of the moment dynamics model with a traditional mean-field model confirms that the moment dynamics approach always outperforms the traditional mean-field approach. To provide more general insight we summarise the performance of the moment dynamics model and the traditional mean-field model over a wide range of parameter regimes. These results help distinguish between those situations where spatial correlation effects are sufficiently strong, such that a moment dynamics model is required, from other situations where spatial correlation effects are sufficiently weak, such that a traditional mean-field model is adequate.

Net radiation dynamics: performance of 20 daily net radiation models as related to model structure and intricacy in two climates.

We compared daily net radiation (Rn) estimates from 19 methods with the ASCE-EWRI Rn estimates in two climates: Clay Center, Nebraska (sub-humid) and Davis, California (semi-arid) for the calendar year. The performances of all 20 methods, including the ASCE-EWRI Rn method, were then evaluated against Rn data measured over a non-stressed maize canopy during two growing seasons in 2005 and 2006 at Clay Center. Methods differ in terms of inputs, structure, and equation intricacy. Most methods differ in estimating the cloudiness factor, emissivity (e), and calculating net longwave radiation (Rnl). All methods use albedo (a) of 0.23 for a reference grass/alfalfa surface. When comparing the performance of all 20 Rn methods with measured Rn, we hypothesized that the a values for grass/alfalfa and non-stressed maize canopy were similar enough to only cause minor differences in Rn and grass- and alfalfa-reference evapotranspiration (ETo and ETr) estimates. The measured seasonal average a for the maize canopy was 0.19 in both years. Using a = 0.19 instead of a = 0.23 resulted in 6% overestimation of Rn. Using a = 0.19 instead of a = 0.23 for ETo and ETr estimations, the 6% difference in Rn translated to only 4% and 3% differences in ETo and ETr, respectively, supporting the validity of our hypothesis. Most methods had good correlations with the ASCE-EWRI Rn (r2 > 0.95). The root mean square difference (RMSD) was less than 2 MJ m-2 d-1 between 12 methods and the ASCE-EWRI Rn at Clay Center and between 14 methods and the ASCE-EWRI Rn at Davis. The performance of some methods showed variations between the two climates. In general, r2 values were higher for the semi-arid climate than for the sub-humid climate. Methods that use dynamic e as a function of mean air temperature performed better in both climates than those that calculate e using actual vapor pressure. The ASCE-EWRI-estimated Rn values had one of the best agreements with the measured Rn (r2 = 0.93, RMSD = 1.44 MJ m-2 d-1), and estimates were within 7% of the measured Rn. The Rn estimates from six methods, including the ASCE-EWRI, were not significantly different from measured Rn. Most methods underestimated measured Rn by 6% to 23%. Some of the differences between measured and estimated Rn were attributed to the poor estimation of Rnl. We conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate the effect of Rnl on Rn, ETo, and ETr. The Rnl effect on Rn was linear and strong, but its effect on ETo and ETr was subsidiary. Results suggest that the Rn data measured over green vegetation (e.g., irrigated maize canopy) can be an alternative Rn data source for ET estimations when measured Rn data over the reference surface are not available. In the absence of measured Rn, another alternative would be using one of the Rn models that we analyzed when all the input variables are not available to solve the ASCE-EWRI Rn equation. Our results can be used to provide practical information on which method to select based on data availability for reliable estimates of daily Rn in climates similar to Clay Center and Davis.

A Newton-Euler formulation for the inverse dynamics of the Stewart platform manipulator

This paper presents an inverse dynamic formulation by the Newton–Euler approach for the Stewart platform manipulator of the most general architecture and models all the dynamic and gravity effects as well as the viscous friction at the joints. It is shown that a proper elimination procedure results in a remarkably economical and fast algorithm for the solution of actuator forces, which makes the method quite suitable for on-line control purposes. In addition, the parallelism inherent in the manipulator and in the modelling makes the algorithm quite efficient in a parallel computing environment, where it can be made as fast as the corresponding formulation for the 6-dof serial manipulator. The formulation has been implemented in a program and has been used for a few trajectories planned for a test manipulator. Results of simulation presented in the paper reveal the nature of the variation of actuator forces in the Stewart platform and justify the dynamic modelling for control.

Environmental and fishing effects on the dynamics of brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) in Moreton Bay (Australia)

This analysis of the variations of brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) catch in Moreton Bay multispecies trawl fishery estimated catchability using a delay difference model. It integrated several factors responsible for variations in catchability: targeting of fishing effort, increasing fishing power and changing availability. An analysis of covariance was used to define fishing events targeted at brown tiger prawns. A general linear model estimated inter-annual variations of fishing power. Temperature-induced changes in prawn behaviour played an important role on the dynamics of this fishery. Maximum likelihood estimates of targeted catchability (4.09 ± 0.42 × 10−4 boat-day−1) were twice as large as non-targeted catchability (1.86 ± 0.25 × 10−4 boat-day−1). The causes of recent declines in fishing effort in this fishery were discussed.

Soil seed bank dynamics in response to an extreme flood event in a riparian habitat

A significantly increased water regime can lead to inundation of rivers, creeks and surrounding floodplains- and thus impact on the temporal dynamics of both the extant vegetation and the dormant, but viable soil-seed bank of riparian corridors. The study documented changes in the soil seed-bank along riparian corridors before and after a major flood event in January 2011 in southeast Queensland, Australia. The study site was a major river (the Mooleyember creek) near Roma, Central Queensland impacted by the extreme flood event and where baseline ecological data on riparian seed-bank populations have previously been collected in 2007, 2008 and 2009. After the major flood event, we collected further soil samples from the same locations in spring/summer (November–December 2011) and in early autumn (March 2012). Thereafter, the soils were exposed to adequate warmth and moisture under glasshouse conditions, and emerged seedlings identified taxonomically. Flooding increased seed-bank abundance but decreased its species richness and diversity. However, flood impact was less than that of yearly effect but greater than that of seasonal variation. Seeds of trees and shrubs were few in the soil, and were negatively affected by the flood; those of herbaceous and graminoids were numerous and proliferate after the flood. Seed-banks of weedy and/or exotic species were no more affected by the flood than those of native and/or non-invasive species. Overall, the studied riparian zone showed evidence of a quick recovery of its seed-bank over time, and can be considered to be resilient to an extreme flood event.

Effect of water quality and season on the population dynamics of Cabomba caroliniana in subtropical Queensland, Australia

Cabomba caroliniana is a submersed aquatic macrophyte that originates from the Americas and is currently invading temperate, subtropical, and tropical freshwater habitats around the world. Despite being a nuisance in many countries, little is known about its ecology. We monitored C. caroliniana populations in three reservoirs in subtropical Queensland, Australia, over 5.5 years. Although biomass, stem length, and plant density of the C. caroliniana stands fluctuated over time, they did not exhibit clear seasonal patterns. Water depth was the most important environmental factor explaining C. caroliniana abundance. Plant biomass was greatest at depths from 2–4 m and rooted plants were not found beyond 5 m. Plant density was greatest in shallow water and decreased with depth, most likely as a function of decreasing light and increasing physical stress. We tested the effect of a range of water physico-chemical parameters. The concentration of phosphorus in the water column was the variable that explained most of the variation in C. caroliniana population parameters. We found that in subtropical Australia, C. caroliniana abundance does not appear to be affected by seasonal conditions but is influenced by other environmental variables such as water depth and nutrient loading. Therefore, further spread will more likely be governed by local habitat rather than climatic conditions.

Symmetries and constraints in generalized Hamiltonian dynamics

A general analysis of symmetries and constraints for singular Lagrangian systems is given. It is shown that symmetry transformations can be expressed as canonical transformations in phase space, even for such systems. The relation of symmetries to generators, constraints, commutators, and Dirac brackets is clarified.

The role of productivity in the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of predator-prey interaction

Productivity is predicted to drive the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of predator-prey interaction through changes in resource allocation between different traits. However, resources are seldom constantly available and thus temporal variation in productivity could have considerable effect on the species' potential to evolve. To study this, three long-term microbial laboratory experiments were established where Serratia marcescens prey bacteria was exposed to predation of protist Tetrahymena thermophila in different prey resource environments. The consequences of prey resource availability for the ecological properties of the predator-prey system, such as trophic dynamics, stability, and virulence, were determined. The evolutionary changes in species traits and prey genetic diversity were measured. The prey defence evolved stronger in high productivity environment. Increased allocation to defence incurred cost in terms of reduced prey resource use ability, which probably constrained prey evolution by increasing the effect of resource competition. However, the magnitude of this trade-off diminished when measured in high resource concentrations. Predation selected for white, non-pigmented, highly defensive prey clones that produced predation resistant biofilm. The biofilm defence was also potentially accompanied with cytotoxicity for predators and could have been traded off with high motility. Evidence for the evolution of predators was also found in one experiment suggesting that co-evolutionary dynamics could affect the evolution and ecology of predator-prey interaction. Temporal variation in resource availability increased variation in predator densities leading to temporally fluctuating selection for prey defences and resource use ability. Temporal variation in resource availability was also able to constrain prey evolution when the allocation to defence incurred high cost. However, when the magnitude of prey trade-off was small and the resource turnover was periodically high, temporal variation facilitated the formation of predator resistant biofilm. The evolution of prey defence constrained the transfer of energy from basal to higher trophic levels, decreasing the strength of top-down regulation on prey community. Predation and temporal variation in productivity decreased the stability of populations and prey traits in general. However, predation-induced destabilization was less pronounced in the high productivity environment where the evolution of prey defence was stronger. In addition, evolution of prey defence weakened the environmental variation induced destabilization of predator population dynamics. Moreover, protozoan predation decreased the S. marcescens virulence in the insect host moth (Parasemia plantaginis) suggesting that species interactions outside the context of host-pathogen relationship could be important indirect drivers for the evolution of pathogenesis. This thesis demonstrates that rapid evolution can affect various ecological properties of predator-prey interaction. The effect of evolution on the ecological dynamics depended on the productivity of the environment, being most evident in the constant environments with high productivity.