Applying statistical approaches in the dissection of genes versus environment for asthma and allergic disease

Now that some of the genes involved in asthma and allergy have been identified, interest is turning to how genetic predisposition interacts with exposure to environmental risk factors. These questions are best answered by studies in which both genotypes and other risk factors are measured, but even simpler studies, in which family history is used as a proxy for genotype, have made suggestive findings. For example, early breast feeding may increase the risk of allergic disease in genetically susceptible children, and decrease the risk of 'sporadic' allergy. This review also addresses the overall importance of genetic causes of allergic disease in the general population.

Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches

The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide combined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of agricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the scientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming practice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highlight some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-farm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly sought after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agricultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications, nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science or extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to 'take stock' and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefits can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importance of 'relevance' and hence the importance of true partnerships between all stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful development and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) issues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling approach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to aid the decision-making process (3) the cropping systems must be sufficiently flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support software that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextualized for any individual client) versus model applications within the context of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups. This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in terms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their requirements for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give examples from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas, low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, small areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic variability, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, technologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will further demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this might eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approaches and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and socioeconomic variability and change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economic Instruments and Regulatory Approaches in Implementing Riparian Revegetation Options: Observations of the Queensland System

Riparian vegetation can be an effective measure for preventing degradation of streambanks and riparian areas. However, riparian revegetation imposes large costs on landholders associated with tree establishment and removal of land from cropping, while providing benefits to downstream landholders, fishers, the local community and environmentalists. Appropriate policy instruments are required to promote sustainable and balanced use of riparian zones. This article analyses the capacity of existing legislation and other instruments to promote restoration of degraded riparian zones on private land. The role of legislation. economic instruments, community engagement and extension programs, in persuading landholders to revegetate riparian areas and improve riparian vegetation cover; is examined in the context ofa small degraded catchment in an intensive farming area in tropical north Queensland. It is found that while legislation and regulations can control undesirable modification of riparian areas, in general they are unable to make a useful contribution to restoration of these areas; incentives and assistance measures appear to offer greater potential.

Prediction of coal ash fusion temperatures with the F*A*C*T thermodynamic computer package

This paper outlines research on the processes taking place within the coal mineral matter at high temperatures and development of the relationship between ash fusion temperatures (AFT) and phase equilibria of the coal ash slags. A new thermodynamic database for the Al-Ca-Fe-O-Si system developed by the author was used in conjunction with the thermodynamic computer package F*A*C*T for these purposes. In addition, high temperature experimental studies were undertaken that involved heat treatment and quenching of the ash cones followed by the analyses using different techniques. The study provided new information on the processes taking place during AFT test and demonstrated the validity of the AFTs predictions with F*A*C*T. Examples of practical applications of the AFT prediction method are given in the paper. The results of this study are important not only for the AFT predictions, but also in general for the application of phase equilibrium science to the characterisation of the coal mineral matter interactions at high temperature. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of latent heat of fusion on heat transfer in fluidized-bed coating of thin plates

This paper presents a numerical study of fluidized-bed coating on thin plates using an orthogonal collocation technique. Inclusion of the latent heat of fusion term in the boundary conditions of the mathematical model accounts for the fact that some polymer powders used in coating may be partially crystalline. Predictions of coating thickness on flat plates were made with actual polymers used in fluidized-bed coating. Reasonably good agreement between numerical predictions of the coating thickness and experimental coating data of Richart was obtained for steel panels preheated to 316 degreesC. A good agreement was also obtained between numerical predictions and our coating thickness data for nylon-11 and polyethylene powders. Predicted coating thickness for polyethylene powder on flat plates were obtained with values of heat transfer coefficient closer to those obtained from our experiments. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The rhetoric of sector-wide approaches for health development

The past decade has witnessed an increasing concerns over the effectiveness of project-based development assistance and the promotion of sector-wide approaches (SWAps) to health as a means to increase donor collaboration, consolidate local management of resources and undertake the policy and systems reform necessary to achieve a greater impact on health issues. The concept has gained the support of both the World Bank and the World Health Organisation, as well as key bilateral donors, and dominates current initiatives in development assistance for health. This paper examines the proposal of SWAps as rhetoric, and seeks to understand how that rhetoric functions, despite the variable application of its constituent elements and the range of contexts in which it operates. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Porous solids from layered clays by combined pillaring and templating approaches

The pore structure formation in bentonite, pillared with a mixed sol of silicon and titanium hydroxides and treated subsequently with quaternary ammonium surfactants, is investigated. The surfactant micelles act as a template, similar to their role in MCM41 synthesis. Because both the surfactant micelles and the sol particles are positively charged, it is greatly favorable for them to form meso-phase assembles in the galleries between the clay layers that bear negative charges. Besides, the sol particles do not bond the clay layers strongly as other kinds of pillar precursors do, so that the treatment with surfactants can result in radical structure changes in sol-pillared clays. This allows us to tailor the pore structure of these porous clays by choice of surfactant. The surfactant treatment also results in profound increases in porosity and improvement in thermal stability. Therefore, the product porous clays have great potential to be Used to deal with large molecules or at high operating temperatures. We also found that titanium in these samples is highly dispersed in the silica matrix rather than existing in the form of small particles of pure titania. Such highly dispersed Ti active centers may offer excellent activities for catalytic oxidation reactions such as alkanes into alcohols and ketones.

Immunity to asexual blood stage malaria and vaccine approaches

The development of a malaria vaccine seems to be a definite possibility despite the fact that even individuals with a life time of endemic exposure do not develop sterile immunity. An effective malaria vaccine would be invaluable in preventing malaria-associated deaths in endemic areas, especially amongst children less than 5 years of age and pregnant women. This review discusses our current understanding of immunity against the asexual blood stage of malaria - the stage that is responsible for the symptoms of the disease - and approaches to the design of an asexual blood stage vaccine.

Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.