Final report of Working Group 2: Traffic psychology [A COST Action TU1101 / HOPE collaboration]

BACKGROUND The workgroup of Traffic Psychology is concerned with the social, behavioral, and perceptual aspects that are associated with use and non-use of bicycle helmets, in their various forms and under various cycling conditions. OBJECTIVES The objectives of WG2 are to (1) share current knowledge among the people already working in the field, (2) suggest new ideas for research on and evaluation of the design of bicycle helmets, and (3) discuss options for funding of such research within the individual frameworks of the participants. Areas for research include 3.1. The patterns of use of helmets among different users: children, adults, and sports enthusiasts. 3.2. The use of helmets in different environments: rural roads, urban streets, and bike trails. 3.3. Concerns bicyclists have relative to their safety and convenience and the perceived impact of using helmets on comfort and convenience. 3.4. The benefit of helmets for enhancing visibility, and how variations in helmet design and colors affect daytime, nighttime, and dusktime visibility. 3.5. The role of helmets in the acceptance of city-wide pickup-and-drop-off bicycles. 3.6. The impact of helmets on visual search behaviour of bicyclists.

Development of a New Zealand database of plant virus and virus-like organisms.

The recent 8th Australasian plant virology workshop in Rotorua, New Zealand, discussed the development of a New Zealand database of plant virus and virus-like organisms. Key points of discussion included: (i) the purpose of such a database; (ii) who would benefit from the information in a database; (iii) the scope of a database and its associated collections; (iv) database information and format; and (v) potential funding of such a database. From the workshop and further research, we conclude that the preservation and verification of specimens within the collections and the development of a New Zealand database of plant virus and virus-like organisms is essential. Such a collection will help to fulfil statutory requirements in New Zealand and assist in fulfilling international obligations under the International Plant Protection Convention. Sustaining such a database will assist New Zealand virologists and statutory bodies to undertake scientifically sound research. Establishing reliable records and an interactive database will help to ensure accurate and timely diagnoses of diseases caused by plant viruses and virus-like organisms. Detection of new incursions and their diagnosis will be further enhanced by the use of such reference collections and their associated database. Connecting and associating this information to similar overseas databases would assist international collaborations and allow access to the latest taxonomic and diagnostic resources. Associated scientists working in the areas of plant breeding, export phytosanitary assurance and in the area of the conservation estate would also benefit from access to verified specimens of plant viruses and virus-like organisms. We conclude that funding of a New Zealand database of virus and virus-like organisms and its associated collections should be based partly on Crown funds, as it is a nationally significant biological resource.

Complete cytogenetic response and major molecular response as surrogate outcomes for overall survival in first-line treatment of chronic myelogenous leukemia: A case study for technology appraisal on the basis of surrogate outcomes evidence

Objectives In 2012, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence assessed dasatinib, nilotinib, and standard-dose imatinib as first-line treatment of chronic phase chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML). Licensing of these alternative treatments was based on randomized controlled trials assessing complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) and major molecular response (MMR) at 12 months as primary end points. We use this case study to illustrate the validation of CCyR and MMR as surrogate outcomes for overall survival in CML and how this evidence was used to inform National Institute for Health and Care Excellence’s recommendation on the public funding of these first-line treatments for CML. Methods We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis to quantify the association between CCyR and MMR at 12 months and overall survival in patients with chronic phase CML. We estimated life expectancy by extrapolating long-term survival from the weighted overall survival stratified according to the achievement of CCyR and MMR. Results Five studies provided data on the observational association between CCyR or MMR and overall survival. Based on the pooled association between CCyR and MMR and overall survival, our modeling showed comparable predicted mean duration of survival (21–23 years) following first-line treatment with imatinib, dasatinib, or nilotinib. Conclusions This case study illustrates the consideration of surrogate outcome evidence in health technology assessment. Although it is often recommended that the acceptance of surrogate outcomes be based on randomized controlled trial data demonstrating an association between the treatment effect on both the surrogate outcome and the final outcome, this case study shows that policymakers may be willing to accept a lower level of evidence (i.e., observational association).

Economics of tourism & growth for small island countries

We theoretically analyze the impact of changes in foreign income from tourism source countries on the growth of tourism dependent small island economies. Using a general theoretical construct, we attempt to answer the question of how price elasticity of demand, income elasticity of tourist and the degree of competition in the service sector influence the economic development of small economies. One of the main results is that politicians may consider applying policies which lead to a competitive environment in the service sector to maximize growth and the consequent labor income share.

Training for reduction of design waste

Construction and demolition (C&D) waste have negative impacts on the environment. As a significant proportion of C&D waste is related to the design stage of a project, there is an opportunity for architects to reduce the waste. However, research suggests that many architects often do not understand the impact of their design on waste generation. Training and education are proposed by current researchers to improve architects’ knowledge; however, this has not been adequately validated as a viable approach to solving waste issues. This research investigates architects’ perceptions towards waste management in the design phase, and determines whether they feel they are adequately skilled in reducing C&D waste. Questionnaire surveys were distributed to architects from 98 architectural firms and 25 completed surveys were returned. The results show that while architects are aware of the relationship between design and waste, ‘extra time’ and ‘lack of knowledge’ are the key barriers to implementing waste reduction strategies. In addition, the majority of respondents acknowledge their lack of skill to reduce waste through design evaluation. Therefore, training programmes can be a viable strategy to enable them to address the pressing issue of C&D waste reduction.

The Impact of New Capital Requirements on the Portfolio Decisions of Finnish Pension Institutions

This paper examines the potential impact of new capital requirements on asset allocations of Finnish pension institutions. We describe the new requirements and consider portfolio construction to minimize regulatory capital, given the investor’s preferred level of expected return. Results identify portfolio transactions that enhance expected return without increasing capital needs. Regulation calls for portfolio diversification and prudence in management, but this paper shows that market participants can exploit inconsistencies in regulation. Possible future consequences include capital outflows from the pension system and an unintended decrease in pre-funding of old-age pensions.

Quality-of-Transmission-Aware Manycasting Over Optical Burst-Switched Networks

Many next-generation distributed applications, such as grid computing, require a single source to communicate with a group of destinations. Traditionally, such applications are implemented using multicast communication. A typical multicast session requires creating the shortest-path tree to a fixed number of destinations. The fundamental issue in multicasting data to a fixed set of destinations is receiver blocking. If one of the destinations is not reachable, the entire multicast request (say, grid task request) may fail. Manycasting is a generalized variation of multicasting that provides the freedom to choose the best subset of destinations from a larger set of candidate destinations. We propose an impairment-aware algorithm to provide manycasting service in the optical layer, specifically OBS. We compare the performance of our proposed manycasting algorithm with traditional multicasting and multicast with over provisioning. Our results show a significant improvement in the blocking probability by implementing optical-layer manycasting.

Optimal forwarding in delay tolerant networks with multiple destinations

We study the trade-off between delivery delay and energy consumption in a delay tolerant network in which a message (or a file) has to be delivered to each of several destinations by epidemic relaying. In addition to the destinations, there are several other nodes in the network that can assist in relaying the message. We first assume that, at every instant, all the nodes know the number of relays carrying the packet and the number of destinations that have received the packet. We formulate the problem as a controlled continuous time Markov chain and derive the optimal closed loop control (i.e., forwarding policy). However, in practice, the intermittent connectivity in the network implies that the nodes may not have the required perfect knowledge of the system state. To address this issue, we obtain an ODE (i.e., fluid) approximation for the optimally controlled Markov chain. This fluid approximation also yields an asymptotically optimal open loop policy. Finally, we evaluate the performance of the deterministic policy over finite networks. Numerical results show that this policy performs close to the optimal closed loop policy.

Optimal Forwarding in Delay-Tolerant Networks With Multiple Destinations

We study the tradeoff between delivery delay and energy consumption in a delay-tolerant network in which a message (or a file) has to be delivered to each of several destinations by epidemic relaying. In addition to the destinations, there are several other nodes in the network that can assist in relaying the message. We first assume that, at every instant, all the nodes know the number of relays carrying the message and the number of destinations that have received the message. We formulate the problem as a controlled continuous-time Markov chain and derive the optimal closed-loop control (i.e., forwarding policy). However, in practice, the intermittent connectivity in the network implies that the nodes may not have the required perfect knowledge of the system state. To address this issue, we obtain an ordinary differential equation (ODE) (i.e., a deterministic fluid) approximation for the optimally controlled Markov chain. This fluid approximation also yields an asymptotically optimal open-loop policy. Finally, we evaluate the performance of the deterministic policy over finite networks. Numerical results show that this policy performs close to the optimal closed-loop policy.

El análisis del entorno político y legal en el marco de la planificación estratégica en el sector turístico y hotelero

[ES] Las empresas turísticas se encuentran inmersas en un entorno cambiante, caracterizado por los avances tecnológicos, al aumento de la competencia global y a las consecuencias derivadas de la crisis económica mundial. Ante estas circunstancias, las empresas turísticas se ven obligadas a diseñar estrategias de marketing y llevar a cabo planes estratégicos. Pues bien, para entender el marketing y desarrollar estrategias eficaces, es fundamental entender el contexto en el que opera la empresa, puesto que en él se generan las oportunidades del mercado y se presentan las amenazas que van a condicionar su futuro. Entre las fuerzas que integran el entorno empresarial se encuentran la economía, la sociedad, la política o la demografía, entre otras.

Report on Knowledge Exchange workshop Price of keeping knowledge: financial streams for digital preservation

In contrast to cost modeling activities, the pricing of services must be simple and transparent. Calculating and thus knowing price structures, would not only help identify the level of detail required for cost modeling of individual instititutions, but also help develop a ”public” market for services as well as clarify the division of task and the modeling of funding and revenue streams for data preservation of public institutions. This workshop has built on the results from the workshop ”The Costs and Benefits of Keeping Knowledge” which took place 11 June 2012 in Copenhagen. This expert workshop aimed at: •Identifying ways for data repositories to abstract from their complicated cost structures and arrive at one transparent pricing structure which can be aligned with available and plausible funding schemes. Those repositories will probably need a stable institutional funding stream for data management and preservation. Are there any estimates for this, absolute or as percentage of overall cost? Part of the revenue will probably have to come through data management fees upon ingest. How could that be priced? Per dataset, per GB or as a percentage of research cost? Will it be necessary to charge access prices, as they contradict the open science paradigm? •What are the price components for pricing individual services, which prices are currently being paid e.g. to commercial providers? What are the description and conditions of the service(s) delivered and guaranteed? •What types of risks are inherent in these pricing schemes? •How can services and prices be defined in an all-inclusive and simple manner, so as to enable researchers to apply for specific amount when asking for funding of data-intensive projects?Please

Adaptive evolution of energy metabolism genes and the origin of flight in bats

Bat flight poses intriguing questions about how flight independently developed in mammals. Flight is among the most energy-consuming activities. Thus, we deduced that changes in energy metabolism must be a primary factor in the origin of flight in bats. The respiratory chain of the mitochondrial produces 95% of the adenosine triphosphate (ATP) needed for locomotion. Because the respiratory chain has a dual genetic foundation, with genes encoded by both the mitochondrial and nuclear genomes, we examined both genomes to gain insights into the evolution of flight within mammals. Evidence for positive selection was detected in 23.08% of the mitochondrial-encoded and 4.90% of nuclear-encoded oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS) genes, but in only 2.25% of the nuclear-encoded nonrespiratory genes that function in mitochondria or 1.005% of other nuclear genes in bats. To address the caveat that the two available bat genomes are of only draft quality, we resequenced 77 OXPHOS genes from four species of bats. The analysis of the resequenced gene data are in agreement with our conclusion that a significantly higher proportion of genes involved in energy metabolism, compared with background genes, show evidence of adaptive evolution specific on the common ancestral bat lineage. Both mitochondrial and nuclear-encoded OXPHOS genes display evidence of adaptive evolution along the common ancestral branch of bats, supporting our hypothesis that genes involved in energy metabolism were targets of natural selection and allowed adaptation to the huge change in energy demand that were required during the origin of flight.

Il Sistema di Revenue Management strumento per lo sviluppo turistico sostenibile delle destinazioni

Businesses interact constantly with the environment, realizing several and heterogeneous exchanges. Organizations can be considered a system of different interests, frequently conflicting and the satisfaction of different stakeholders is a condition of success and survival. National and international literature attempts to explain the complex connection between companies and environment. In particular, the Stakeholder Theory considers crucial for businesses the identification of different stakeholders and their involvement in decision-making process. In this context, profit can not be considered the only purpose of companies existence and business aims become more numerous and different. The Stakeholder Theory is often utilized as framework for tourism studies, in particular in Sustainable Tourism Development research. In fact, authors consider sustainable the tourism development able to satisfy interests of different stakeholders, traditionally identified as local community and government, businesses, tourists and natural environment. Tourism businesses have to guarantee the optimal use of natural resources, the respect of socio-cultural tradition of local community and the creation of socio-economic benefits for all stakeholders in destinations. An obstacle to sustainable tourism development that characterizes a number of destinations worldwide is tourism demand seasonality. In fact, its negative impact on the environment, economy and communities may be highly significant. Pollution, difficulties in the use of public services, stress for residents, seasonal incomes, are all examples of the negative effects of seasonality. According to the World Tourism Organization (2004) the limitation of seasonality can favour the sustainability of tourism. Literature suggests private and public strategies to minimize the negative effects of tourism seasonality, as diversification of tourism products, identification of new market segments, launching events, application of public instruments like eco-taxes and use of differential pricing policies. Revenue Management is a managerial system based on differential pricing and able to affect price sensitive tourists. This research attempts to verify if Revenue Management, created to maximize profits in tourism companies, can also mitigate the seasonality of tourism demand, producing benefits for different stakeholders of destinations and contributing to Sustainable Tourism Development. In particular, the study attempts to answer the following research questions: 1) Can Revenue Management control the flow of tourist demand? 2) Can Revenue Management limit seasonality, producing benefits for different stakeholders of a destination? 3) Can Revenue Management favor the development of Sustainable Tourism? The literature review on Stakeholder Theory, Sustainable Tourism Development, tourism seasonality and Revenue Management forms the foundation of the research, based on a case study approach looking at a significant destination located in the Southern coast of Sardinia, Italy. A deductive methodology was applied and qualitative and quantitative methods were utilized. This study shows that Revenue Management has the potential to limit tourism seasonality, to mitigate negative impacts occurring from tourism activities, producing benefits for local community and to contribute to Sustainable Tourism Development.

A imagem de um destino turístico cultural

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada à Universidade Fernando Pessoa como parte dos requisitos para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciências Empresariais.

On the Marginal Utility of Deploying Measurement Infrastructure

The cost and complexity of deploying measurement infrastructure in the Internet for the purpose of analyzing its structure and behavior is considerable. Basic questions about the utility of increasing the number of measurements and/or measurement sites have not yet been addressed which has lead to a "more is better" approach to wide-area measurements. In this paper, we quantify the marginal utility of performing wide-area measurements in the context of Internet topology discovery. We characterize topology in terms of nodes, links, node degree distribution, and end-to-end flows using statistical and information-theoretic techniques. We classify nodes discovered on the routes between a set of 8 sources and 1277 destinations to differentiate nodes which make up the so called "backbone" from those which border the backbone and those on links between the border nodes and destination nodes. This process includes reducing nodes that advertise multiple interfaces to single IP addresses. We show that the utility of adding sources goes down significantly after 2 from the perspective of interface, node, link and node degree discovery. We show that the utility of adding destinations is constant for interfaces, nodes, links and node degree indicating that it is more important to add destinations than sources. Finally, we analyze paths through the backbone and show that shared link distributions approximate a power law indicating that a small number of backbone links in our study are very heavily utilized.