Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Formal derivation of finite state machines for class testing

Previous work on generating state machines for the purpose of class testing has not been formally based. There has also been work on deriving state machines from formal specifications for testing non-object-oriented software. We build on this work by presenting a method for deriving a state machine for testing purposes from a formal specification of the class under test. We also show how the resulting state machine can be used as the basis for a test suite developed and executed using an existing framework for class testing. To derive the state machine, we identify the states and possible interactions of the operations of the class under test. The Test Template Framework is used to formally derive the states from the Object-Z specification of the class under test. The transitions of the finite state machine are calculated from the derived states and the class's operations. The formally derived finite state machine is transformed to a ClassBench testgraph, which is used as input to the ClassBench framework to test a C++ implementation of the class. The method is illustrated using a simple bounded queue example.

The formal representation of process system modelling assumptions and their implications

In order to analyse the effect of modelling assumptions in a formal, rigorous way, a syntax of modelling assumptions has been defined. The syntax of modelling assumptions enables us to represent modelling assumptions as transformations acting on the set of model equations. The notion of syntactical correctness and semantical consistency of sets of modelling assumptions is defined and methods for checking them are described. It is shown on a simple example how different modelling assumptions act on the model equations and their effect on the differential index of the resulted model is also indicated.

A formal model of real-time program compilation

Program compilation can be formally defined as a sequence of equivalence-preserving transformations, or refinements, from high-level language programs to assembler code, Recent models also incorporate timing properties, but the resulting formalisms are intimidatingly complex. Here we take advantage of a new, simple model of real-time refinement, based on predicate transformer semantics, to present a straightforward compilation formalism that incorporates real-time constraints. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The Analysis of interval censoring and double censoring via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

L'Anàlisi de la supervivència s'utilitza en diferents camps per analitzar el temps transcorregut entre dos esdeveniments. El que distingeix l'anàlisi de la supervivència d'altres àrees de l'estadística és que les dades normalment estan censurades. La censura en un interval apareix quan l'esdeveniment final d'interès no és directament observable i només se sap que el temps de fallada està en un interval concret. Un esquema de censura més complex encara apareix quan tant el temps inicial com el temps final estan censurats en un interval. Aquesta situació s'anomena doble censura. En aquest article donem una descripció formal d'un mètode bayesà paramètric per a l'anàlisi de dades censurades en un interval i dades doblement censurades així com unes indicacions clares de la seva utilització o pràctica. La metodologia proposada s'ilustra amb dades d'una cohort de pacients hemofílics que es varen infectar amb el virus VIH a principis dels anys 1980's.

Do Spanish informal caregivers come to the rescue of dependent people with formal care unmet needs?

This paper analyses the effect of unmet formal care needs on informal caregiving hours in Spain using the two wavesof the Informal Support Survey (1994, 2004). Testing for double sample selection from formal care receipt and theemergence of unmet needs provides evidence that the omission of either variable would causes underestimation of thenumber of informal caregiving hours. After controlling for these two factors the number of hours of care increaseswith both the degree of dependency and unmet needs. More importantly, in the presence of unmet needs, the numberof informal caregiving hours increases when some formal care is received. This result refutes the substitution modeland supports complementarity or task specificity between both types of care. For a given combination of formal careand unmet needs, informal caregiving hours increased between 1994 and 2004. Finally, in the model for 2004, theselection term associated with the unmet needs equation is larger than that of the formal care equation, suggestingthat using the number of formal care recipients as a quality indicator may be confounding, if we do not complete thisinformation with other quality indicators.

Selection methods regulate evolution of cooperation in digital evolution.

A key, yet often neglected, component of digital evolution and evolutionary models is the 'selection method' which assigns fitness (number of offspring) to individuals based on their performance scores (efficiency in performing tasks). Here, we study with formal analysis and numerical experiments the evolution of cooperation under the five most common selection methods (proportionate, rank, truncation-proportionate, truncation-uniform and tournament). We consider related individuals engaging in a Prisoner's Dilemma game where individuals can either cooperate or defect. A cooperator pays a cost, whereas its partner receives a benefit, which affect their performance scores. These performance scores are translated into fitness by one of the five selection methods. We show that cooperation is positively associated with the relatedness between individuals under all selection methods. By contrast, the change in the performance benefit of cooperation affects the populations' average level of cooperation only under the proportionate methods. We also demonstrate that the truncation and tournament methods may introduce negative frequency-dependence and lead to the evolution of polymorphic populations. Using the example of the evolution of cooperation, we show that the choice of selection method, though it is often marginalized, can considerably affect the evolutionary dynamics.

Detecting, quantifying and adjusting for publication bias in meta-analyses: protocol of a systematic review on methods.

BACKGROUND: Health professionals and policymakers aspire to make healthcare decisions based on the entire relevant research evidence. This, however, can rarely be achieved because a considerable amount of research findings are not published, especially in case of 'negative' results - a phenomenon widely recognized as publication bias. Different methods of detecting, quantifying and adjusting for publication bias in meta-analyses have been described in the literature, such as graphical approaches and formal statistical tests to detect publication bias, and statistical approaches to modify effect sizes to adjust a pooled estimate when the presence of publication bias is suspected. An up-to-date systematic review of the existing methods is lacking. METHODS/DESIGN: The objectives of this systematic review are as follows:âeuro¢ To systematically review methodological articles which focus on non-publication of studies and to describe methods of detecting and/or quantifying and/or adjusting for publication bias in meta-analyses.âeuro¢ To appraise strengths and weaknesses of methods, the resources they require, and the conditions under which the method could be used, based on findings of included studies.We will systematically search Web of Science, Medline, and the Cochrane Library for methodological articles that describe at least one method of detecting and/or quantifying and/or adjusting for publication bias in meta-analyses. A dedicated data extraction form is developed and pilot-tested. Working in teams of two, we will independently extract relevant information from each eligible article. As this will be a qualitative systematic review, data reporting will involve a descriptive summary. DISCUSSION: Results are expected to be publicly available in mid 2013. This systematic review together with the results of other systematic reviews of the OPEN project (To Overcome Failure to Publish Negative Findings) will serve as a basis for the development of future policies and guidelines regarding the assessment and handling of publication bias in meta-analyses.

Formal Power Analysis of Systems-on-Chip

The design methods and languages targeted to modern System-on-Chip designs are facing tremendous pressure of the ever-increasing complexity, power, and speed requirements. To estimate any of these three metrics, there is a trade-off between accuracy and abstraction level of detail in which a system under design is analyzed. The more detailed the description, the more accurate the simulation will be, but, on the other hand, the more time consuming it will be. Moreover, a designer wants to make decisions as early as possible in the design flow to avoid costly design backtracking. To answer the challenges posed upon System-on-chip designs, this thesis introduces a formal, power aware framework, its development methods, and methods to constraint and analyze power consumption of the system under design. This thesis discusses on power analysis of synchronous and asynchronous systems not forgetting the communication aspects of these systems. The presented framework is built upon the Timed Action System formalism, which offer an environment to analyze and constraint the functional and temporal behavior of the system at high abstraction level. Furthermore, due to the complexity of System-on-Chip designs, the possibility to abstract unnecessary implementation details at higher abstraction levels is an essential part of the introduced design framework. With the encapsulation and abstraction techniques incorporated with the procedure based communication allows a designer to use the presented power aware framework in modeling these large scale systems. The introduced techniques also enable one to subdivide the development of communication and computation into own tasks. This property is taken into account in the power analysis part as well. Furthermore, the presented framework is developed in a way that it can be used throughout the design project. In other words, a designer is able to model and analyze systems from an abstract specification down to an implementable specification.

Formal and informal mechanisms for knowledge protection and sharing

The most important knowledge in firms is mostly tacit and embedded in individuals within the organization. This background knowledge that firms possess is used for creation of new knowledge and innovations. As firms today greatly concentrate on their core competencies, they need external knowledge from various collaboration partners. Thus, collaborative relationship governance, as well as control (use of appropriability mechanisms) over background (the input from each firm in innovative activities) and foreground knowledge (the output of collaboration activities) is needed in order to successfully create and capture value from innovative activities without losing core knowledge and competitiveness. Even though research has concentrated on knowledge protection and knowledge sharing, studies that combine both of these views and examine the effects of sharing and protection on value creation and capture have been rather limited. Studies have mainly focused on the protection of the output of innovation while forgetting the protection of the input of innovation. On the other hand, as the research concentrating on the output of innovation tends to favor formal mechanisms, informal mechanisms have remained more unknown to researchers as well as managers. This research aims to combine the perspectives of knowledge sharing and knowledge protection and their relationship with value creation and value capture. The sharing and protection are viewed from two points of view: the use of appropriability mechanisms, as well as governance of the collaborative relationship. The study consists of two parts. The first part introduces the research topic and discusses the overall results. The second part comprises six complementary research publications. Both qualitative and quantitative research methods are used in the study. In terms of results, the findings enhance understanding of the combined use of formal and informal mechanisms for knowledge protection and sharing. Informal mechanisms appear to be emphasized in the protection of background knowledge, and thus are prerequisites for innovation, whereas formal mechanisms are relied on more for protecting the results of innovative activities. However, the simultaneous use of the formal and informal mechanisms that are relevant to the particular industry and innovation context is recommendedthroughout the collaborative innovation process. Further, the study adds to the current knowledge on HRM as an appropriability mechanism: on the firm level its uses include assessing and hedging against employee-related risks such as knowledge leaking and knowledge leaving. A further contribution is to the research on HRM protection and its interrelations with other appropriability mechanisms, its constituents, and its potential use in the area of knowledge protection.

Formal development and quantitative verification of dependable systems

-

Investigation of Theories Supporting Engagement of Resistant Learners in Formal Academic Settings and Curriculum

This study sought to explore ways to work with a group of young people through an arts-based approach to the teaching of literacy. Through the research, the author integrated her own reflexivity applying arts methods over the past decade. The author’s past experiences were strongly informed by theories such as caring theory and maternal pedagogy, which also informed the research design. The study incorporated qualitative data collection instruments comprising interviews, journals, sketches, artifacts, and teacher field notes. Data were collected by 3 student participants for the duration of the research. Study results provide educators with data on the impact of creating informal and alternative ways to teach literacy and maintain student engagement with resistant learners.

Ontology merging with formal concept analysis

Ontologies have been established for knowledge sharing and are widely used as a means for conceptually structuring domains of interest. With the growing usage of ontologies, the problem of overlapping knowledge in a common domain becomes critical. In this short paper, we address two methods for merging ontologies based on Formal Concept Analysis: FCA-Merge and ONTEX. --- FCA-Merge is a method for merging ontologies following a bottom-up approach which offers a structural description of the merging process. The method is guided by application-specific instances of the given source ontologies. We apply techniques from natural language processing and formal concept analysis to derive a lattice of concepts as a structural result of FCA-Merge. The generated result is then explored and transformed into the merged ontology with human interaction. --- ONTEX is a method for systematically structuring the top-down level of ontologies. It is based on an interactive, top-down- knowledge acquisition process, which assures that the knowledge engineer considers all possible cases while avoiding redundant acquisition. The method is suited especially for creating/merging the top part(s) of the ontologies, where high accuracy is required, and for supporting the merging of two (or more) ontologies on that level.