Comparison between detailed model simulation and artificial neural network for forecasting building energy consumption

There are several ways to attempt to model a building and its heat gains from external sources as well as internal ones in order to evaluate a proper operation, audit retrofit actions, and forecast energy consumption. Different techniques, varying from simple regression to models that are based on physical principles, can be used for simulation. A frequent hypothesis for all these models is that the input variables should be based on realistic data when they are available, otherwise the evaluation of energy consumption might be highly under or over estimated. In this paper, a comparison is made between a simple model based on artificial neural network (ANN) and a model that is based on physical principles (EnergyPlus) as an auditing and predicting tool in order to forecast building energy consumption. The Administration Building of the University of Sao Paulo is used as a case study. The building energy consumption profiles are collected as well as the campus meteorological data. Results show that both models are suitable for energy consumption forecast. Additionally, a parametric analysis is carried out for the considered building on EnergyPlus in order to evaluate the influence of several parameters such as the building profile occupation and weather data on such forecasting. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

Forecasting fuel ethanol consumption in Brazil by time series models: 2006-2012

This article analysed scenarios for Brazilian consumption of ethanol for the period 2006 to 2012. The results show that if the country`s GDP sustains a 4.6% a year growth, domestic consumption of fuel ethanol could increase to 25.16 billion liters in this period, which is a volume relatively close to the forecasted gasoline consumption of 31 billion liters. At a lower GDP growth of 1.22% a year, gasoline consumption would be reduced and domestic ethanol consumption in Brazil would be no higher than 18.32 billion liters. Contrary to the current situation, forecasts indicated that hydrated ethanol consumption could become much higher than anhydrous consumption in Brazil. The former is being consumed in cars moved exclusively by ethanol and flex-fuel cars, successfully introduced in the country at 2003. Flex cars allow Brazilian consumers to choose between gasoline and hydrated ethanol and immediately switch to whichever fuel presents the most favourable relative price.

Constraints on the spatiotemporal accuracy of interceptive action: effects of target size on hitting a moving object

Results of two experiments are reported that examined how people respond to rectangular targets of different sizes in simple hitting tasks. If a target moves in a straight line and a person is constrained to move along a linear track oriented perpendicular to the targetrsquos motion, then the length of the target along its direction of motion constrains the temporal accuracy and precision required to make the interception. The dimensions of the target perpendicular to its direction of motion place no constraints on performance in such a task. In contrast, if the person is not constrained to move along a straight track, the targetrsquos dimensions may constrain the spatial as well as the temporal accuracy and precision. The experiments reported here examined how people responded to targets of different vertical extent (height): the task was to strike targets that moved along a straight, horizontal path. In experiment 1 participants were constrained to move along a horizontal linear track to strike targets and so target height did not constrain performance. Target height, length and speed were co-varied. Movement time (MT) was unaffected by target height but was systematically affected by length (briefer movements to smaller targets) and speed (briefer movements to faster targets). Peak movement speed (Vmax) was influenced by all three independent variables: participants struck shorter, narrower and faster targets harder. In experiment 2, participants were constrained to move in a vertical plane normal to the targetrsquos direction of motion. In this task target height constrains the spatial accuracy required to contact the target. Three groups of eight participants struck targets of different height but of constant length and speed, hence constant temporal accuracy demand (different for each group, one group struck stationary targets = no temporal accuracy demand). On average, participants showed little or no systematic response to changes in spatial accuracy demand on any dependent measure (MT, Vmax, spatial variable error). The results are interpreted in relation to previous results on movements aimed at stationary targets in the absence of visual feedback.

Examination into the accuracy of exchangeable cation measurement in saline soils

Despite the increasing prevalence of salinity world-wide, the measurement of exchangeable cation concentrations in saline soils remains problematic. Two soil types (Mollisol and Vertisol) were equilibrated with a range of sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) solutions at various ionic strengths. The concentrations of exchangeable cations were then determined using several different types of methods, and the measured exchangeable cation concentrations compared to reference values. At low ionic strength (low salinity), the concentration of exchangeable cations can be accurately estimated from the total soil extractable cations. In saline soils, however, the presence of soluble salts in the soil solution precludes the use of this method. Leaching of the soil with a pre-wash solution (such as alcohol) was found to effectively remove the soluble salts from the soil, thus allowing the accurate measurement of the effective cation exchange capacity (ECEC). However, the dilution associated with this pre-washing increased the exchangeable Ca concentrations while simultaneously decreasing exchangeable Na. In contrast, when calculated as the difference between the total extractable cations and the soil solution cations, good correlations were found between the calculated exchangeable cation concentrations and the reference values for both Na (Mollisol: y=0.873x and Vertisol: y=0.960x) and Ca (Mollisol: y=0.901x and Vertisol: y=1.05x). Therefore, for soils with a soil solution ionic strength greater than 50 mM (electrical conductivity of 4 dS/m) (in which exchangeable cation concentrations are overestimated by the assumption they can be estimated as the total extractable cations), concentrations can be calculated as the difference between total extractable cations and soluble cations.

Bioimpedance spectrometry in the determination of body water compartments: Accuracy and clinical significance

Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) offers the potential for a simple, portable and relatively inexpensive technique for the in vivo measurement of total body water (TBW). The potential of BIA as a technique of body composition analysis is even greater when one considers that body water can be used as a surrogate measure of lean body mass. However, BIA has not found universal acceptance even with the introduction of multi-frequency BIA (MFBIA) which, potentially, may improve the predictive accuracy of the measurement. There are a number of reasons for this lack of acceptance, although perhaps the major reason is that no single algorithm has been developed which can be applied to all subject groups. This may be due, in part, to the commonly used wrist-to-ankle protocol which is not indicated by the basic theory of bioimpedance, where the body is considered as five interconnecting cylinders. Several workers have suggested the use of segmental BIA measurements to provide a protocol more in keeping with basic theory. However, there are other difficulties associated with the application of BIA, such as effects of hydration and ion status, posture and fluid distribution. A further putative advantage of MFBIA is the independent assessment not only of TBW but also of the extracellular fluid volume (ECW), hence heralding the possibility of,being able to assess the fluid distribution between these compartments. Results of studies in this area have been, to date, mixed. Whereas strong relationships of impedance values at low frequencies with ECW, and at high frequencies with TBW, have been reported, changes in impedance are not always well correlated with changes in the size of the fluid compartments (assessed by alternative and more direct means) in pathological conditions. Furthermore, the theoretical advantages of Cole-Cole modelling over selected frequency prediction have not always been apparent. This review will consider the principles, methodology and applications of BIA. The principles and methodology will,be considered in relation to the basic theory of BIA and difficulties experienced in its application. The relative merits of single and multiple frequency BIA will be addressed, with particular attention to the latter's role in the assessment of compartmental fluid volumes. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accuracy of predicting a child's response to potential threat: A comparison of children and their mothers

Considerable research has indicated that children and their parents often demonstrate marked discrepancies in their reporting of anxiety-related phenomena. In such cases, the question arises as to whether children are capable of accurately reporting on their anxiety. In the present study, 50 children (aged 5 to 14 years) were asked to approach a large, German Shepherd dog. Prior to the task, both the mother and child independently predicted the closest point likely to be reached by the child and the degree of anxiety likely to be experienced. These predictions were then compared with the actual phenomena displayed by the child during the task. On the behavioural measure (closest step reached), both the child and mother demonstrated equivalent predictive accuracy. On the subjective measure (fear ratings) children were considerably more accurate than their mothers. The data were not influenced by gender, age, or clinical status. The results indicate the ability of children to accurately predict their anxious responses, and support the value of incorporating children's self-reports in the assessment of emotional disorders.

Coronary Artery Stenoses: Accuracy of 64-Detector Row CT Angiography in Segments with Mild, Moderate, or Severe Calcification-A Subanalysis of the CORE-64 Trial

Purpose: To evaluate the influence of cross-sectional arc calcification on the diagnostic accuracy of computed tomography (CT) angiography compared with conventional coronary angiography for the detection of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). Materials and Methods: Institutional Review Board approval and written informed consent were obtained from all centers and participants for this HIPAA-compliant study. Overall, 4511 segments from 371 symptomatic patients (279 men, 92 women; median age, 61 years [interquartile range, 53-67 years]) with clinical suspicion of CAD from the CORE-64 multi-center study were included in the analysis. Two independent blinded observers evaluated the percentage of diameter stenosis and the circumferential extent of calcium (arc calcium). The accuracy of quantitative multidetector CT angiography to depict substantial (>50%) stenoses was assessed by using quantitative coronary angiography (QCA). Cross-sectional arc calcium was rated on a segment level as follows: noncalcified or mild (<90 degrees), moderate (90 degrees-180 degrees), or severe (>180 degrees) calcification. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression, receiver operation characteristic curve, and clustering methods were used for statistical analyses. Results: A total of 1099 segments had mild calcification, 503 had moderate calcification, 338 had severe calcification, and 2571 segments were noncalcified. Calcified segments were highly associated (P < .001) with disagreement between CTA and QCA in multivariable analysis after controlling for sex, age, heart rate, and image quality. The prevalence of CAD was 5.4% in noncalcified segments, 15.0% in mildly calcified segments, 27.0% in moderately calcified segments, and 43.0% in severely calcified segments. A significant difference was found in area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (noncalcified: 0.86, mildly calcified: 0.85, moderately calcified: 0.82, severely calcified: 0.81; P < .05). Conclusion: In a symptomatic patient population, segment-based coronary artery calcification significantly decreased agreement between multidetector CT angiography and QCA to detect a coronary stenosis of at least 50%.

Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

Accuracy of store-and-forward diagnosis in leproy

Telemedicine might increase the speed of diagnosis for leprosy and reduce the development of disabilities. We compared the accuracy of diagnosis made by telemedicine with that made by in-person examination. The cases were patients with suspected leprosy at eight public health clinics in outlying areas of the city of Sao Paulo. The case history and clinical examination data, and at least two clinical images for each patient, were stored in a web-based system developed for teledermatology. After the examination in the public clinic, patients then attended a teaching hospital for an in-person examination. The benchmark was the clinical examination of two dermatologists at the university hospital. From August 2005 to April 2006, 142 suspected cases of leprosy were forwarded to the website by the doctors at the clinics. Of these, 36 cases were excluded. There was overall agreement in the diagnosis of leprosy in 74% of the 106 remaining cases. The sensitivity was 78% and the specificity was 31%. Although the specificity was low, the study suggests that telemedicine may be a useful low-cost method for obtaining second opinions in programmes to control leprosy.

Predicting relationships between speed and accuracy of targetting movements is important

While explaining a large proportion of any variance, accounts of the speed and accuracy of targetting movements use techniques (e.g., log transforms) that typically reduce variability before ''explaining'' the data. Therefore the predictive power of such accounts are important. We consider whether Plamondon's model can account for kinematics of targetting movements of clinical populations.

Accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging for diagnosis and preoperative assessment of deeply infiltrating endometriosis

Objective: To evaluate the accuracy of preoperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings relative to surgical presence of deeply infiltrating endometriosis (DIE). Methods: This prospective study included 92 women with clinical suspicion of DIE. The MR images were compared with laparoscopy and pathology findings. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of MRI for diagnosis of DIE were assessed. Results: DIE was confirmed at histopathology in 77 of the 92 patients (83.7%). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of MRI to diagnose DIE at each of the specific sites evaluated were as follows: retrocervical space (89.4%, 92.3%, 96.7%, 77.4%, 90.2%); rectosigmoid (86.0%, 92.9%, 93.5%, 84.8%, 89.1%); bladder (23.1%, 100%,100%, 88.8%, 89.1%); ureters (50.0%, 100%, 95.5%, 95.7%); and vagina (72.7%, 100%, 100%, 96.4%, 96.7%). Conclusion: MRI demonstrates high accuracy in diagnosing DIE in the retrocervical region, rectosigmoid. bladder, ureters, and vagina. (C) 2009 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Lid. All rights reserved.

Effect of Disease Severity and Optic Disc Size on Diagnostic Accuracy of RTVue Spectral Domain Optical Coherence Tomograph in Glaucoma

PURPOSE. To evaluate the effect of disease severity and optic disc size on the diagnostic accuracies of optic nerve head (ONH), retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL), and macular parameters with RTVue (Optovue, Fremont, CA) spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SDOCT) in glaucoma. METHODS. 110 eyes of 62 normal subjects and 193 eyes of 136 glaucoma patients from the Diagnostic Innovations in Glaucoma Study underwent ONH, RNFL, and macular imaging with RTVue. Severity of glaucoma was based on visual field index (VFI) values from standard automated perimetry. Optic disc size was based on disc area measurement using the Heidelberg Retina Tomograph II (Heidelberg Engineering, Dossenheim, Germany). Influence of disease severity and disc size on the diagnostic accuracy of RTVue was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and logistic regression models. RESULTS. Areas under ROC curve (AUC) of all scanning areas increased (P < 0.05) as disease severity increased. For a VFI value of 99%, indicating early damage, AUCs for rim area, average RNLI thickness, and ganglion cell complex-root mean square were 0.693, 0.799, and 0.779, respectively. For a VFI of 70%, indicating severe damage, corresponding AUCs were 0.828, 0.985, and 0.992, respectively. Optic disc size did not influence the AUCs of any of the SDOCT scanning protocols of RTVue (P > 0.05). Sensitivity of the rim area increased and specificity decreased in large optic discs. CONCLUSIONS. Diagnostic accuracies of RTVue scanning protocols for glaucoma were significantly influenced by disease severity. Sensitivity of the rim area increased in large optic discs at the expense of specificity. (Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 2011;92:1290-1296) DOI:10.1167/iovs.10-5516

Screening for Alzheimer`s Disease Among Illiterate Elderly: Accuracy Analysis for Multiple Instruments

One of the challenges in screening for dementia in developing countries is related to performance differences due to educational and cultural factors. This study evaluated the accuracy of single screening tests as well as combined protocols including the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Verbal Fluency animal category (VF), Clock Drawing test (CDT), and Pfeffer Functional Activities Questionnaire (PFAQ) to discriminate illiterate elderly with and without Alzheimer`s disease (AD) in a clinical sample. Cross-sectional study with 66 illiterate outpatients diagnosed with mild and moderate AD and 40 illiterate normal controls. Diagnosis of AD was based on NINCDS-ADRDA. All patients were submitted to a diagnostic protocol including a clinical interview based on the CAMDEX sections. ROC curves area analyses were carried out to compare sensitivity and specificity for the cognitive tests to differentiate the two groups (each test separately and in two by two combinations). Scores for all cognitive (MMSE, CDT, VF) and functional assessments (PFAQ) were significantly different between the two groups (p < 0.001). The best screening instruments for this sample of illiterate elderly were the MMSE and the PFAQ. The cut-off scores for the MMSE, VF, CDT, and PFAQ were 17.5, 7.5, 2.5, and 11.5, respectively. The most sensitive combination came from the MMSE and PFAQ (94.1%), and the best specificity was observed with the combination of the MMSE and CDT (89%). Illiterate patients can be successfully screened for AD using well-known screening instruments, especially in combined protocols.