Metaheuristic approach to the Holt-Winters optimal short term load forecast

Electricity short-term load forecast is very important for the operation of power systems. In this work a classical exponential smoothing model, the Holt-Winters with double seasonality was used to test for accurate predictions applied to the Portuguese demand time series. Some metaheuristic algorithms for the optimal selection of the smoothing parameters of the Holt-Winters forecast function were used and the results after testing in the time series showed little differences among methods, so the use of the simple local search algorithms is recommended as they are easier to implement.

Metaheuristhic approach to the Holt-Winters optimal short term load forecast

Electricity short-term load forecast is very important for the operation of power systems. In this work a classical exponential smoothing model, the Holt-Winters with double seasonality was used to test for accurate predictions applied to the Portuguese demand time series. Some metaheuristic algorithms for the optimal selection of the smoothing parameters of the Holt-Winters forecast function were used and the results after testing in the time series showed little differences among methods, so the use of the simple local search algorithms is recommended as they are easier to implement.

Self-adaptive combination of global tabu search and local search for nonlinear equations

Solving systems of nonlinear equations is a very important task since the problems emerge mostly through the mathematical modelling of real problems that arise naturally in many branches of engineering and in the physical sciences. The problem can be naturally reformulated as a global optimization problem. In this paper, we show that a self-adaptive combination of a metaheuristic with a classical local search method is able to converge to some difficult problems that are not solved by Newton-type methods.

Renewable power forecast to scheduling of thermal units

In this work is discussed the importance of the renewable production forecast in an island environment. A probabilistic forecast based on kernel density estimators is proposed. The aggregation of these forecasts, allows the determination of thermal generation amount needed to schedule and operating a power grid of an island with high penetration of renewable generation. A case study based on electric system of S. Miguel Island is presented. The results show that the forecast techniques are an imperative tool help the grid management.

Evaluating the combination of relaxation and argumentation in ontology matching negotiation

No decorrer dos últimos anos, os agentes (inteligentes) de software foram empregues como um método para colmatar as dificuldades associadas com a gestão, partilha e reutilização de um crescente volume de informação, enquanto as ontologias foram utilizadas para modelar essa mesma informação num formato semanticamente explícito e rico. À medida que a popularidade da Web Semântica aumenta e cada vez informação é partilhada sob a forma de ontologias, o problema de integração desta informação amplifica-se. Em semelhante contexto, não é expectável que dois agentes que pretendam cooperar utilizem a mesma ontologia para descrever a sua conceptualização do mundo. Inclusive pode revelar-se necessário que agentes interajam sem terem conhecimento prévio das ontologias utilizadas pelos restantes, sendo necessário que as conciliem em tempo de execução num processo comummente designado por Mapeamento de Ontologias [1]. O processo de mapeamento de ontologias é normalmente oferecido como um serviço aos agentes de negócio, podendo ser requisitado sempre que seja necessário produzir um alinhamento. No entanto, tendo em conta que cada agente tem as suas próprias necessidades e objetivos, assim como a própria natureza subjetiva das ontologias que utilizam, é possível que tenham diferentes interesses relativamente ao processo de alinhamento e que, inclusive, recorram aos serviços de mapeamento que considerem mais convenientes [1]. Diferentes matchers podem produzir resultados distintos e até mesmo contraditórios, criando-se assim conflitos entre os agentes. É necessário que se proceda então a uma tentativa de resolução dos conflitos existentes através de um processo de negociação, de tal forma que os agentes possam chegar a um consenso relativamente às correspondências que devem ser utilizadas na tradução de mensagens a trocar. A resolução de conflitos é considerada uma métrica de grande importância no que diz respeito ao processo de negociação [2]: considera-se que existe uma maior confiança associada a um alinhamento quanto menor o número de conflitos por resolver no processo de negociação que o gerou. Desta forma, um alinhamento com um número elevado de conflitos por resolver apresenta uma confiança menor que o mesmo alinhamento associado a um número elevado de conflitos resolvidos. O processo de negociação para que dois ou mais agentes gerem e concordem com um alinhamento é denominado de Negociação de Mapeamentos de Ontologias. À data existem duas abordagens propostas na literatura: (i) baseadas em Argumentação (e.g. [3] [4]) e (ii) baseadas em Relaxamento [5] [6]. Cada uma das propostas expostas apresenta um número de vantagens e limitações. Foram propostas várias formas de combinação das duas técnicas [2], com o objetivo de beneficiar das vantagens oferecidas e colmatar as suas limitações. No entanto, à data, não são conhecidas experiências documentadas que possam provar tal afirmação e, como tal, não é possível atestar que tais combinações tragam, de facto, o benefício que pretendem. O trabalho aqui apresentado pretende providenciar tais experiências e verificar se a afirmação de melhorias em relação aos resultados das técnicas individuais se mantém. Com o objetivo de permitir a combinação e de colmatar as falhas identificadas, foi proposta uma nova abordagem baseada em Relaxamento, que é posteriormente combinada com as abordagens baseadas em Argumentação. Os seus resultados, juntamente com os da combinação, são aqui apresentados e discutidos, sendo possível identificar diferenças nos resultados gerados por combinações diferentes e possíveis contextos de utilização.

Efficacy of oxamniquine, praziquantel and a combination of both drugs in schistosomiasis mansoni in Brazil

A randomized clinical trial was carried out to compare the efficacy of a low-dosage combination of oxamniquine (7.5 mg/kg) plus praziquantel (20 mg/kg) against either agent, oxamniquine (15 mg/kg) or praziquantel (40 mg/kg) alone, in the treatment of schistosomiasis mansoni in the Brazilian north-east. The drugs were randomly administered per os to 91 patients. Six and twelve months after treatment 89% of those admitted to the trial were reexamined by Kato-Katz method (ten slides) and MIF technique (one gram of stool) The achieved cure rates, as defined by absence of S. mansoni eggs in the faeces of individual patients at all points during the parasitological follow-up, were 81.8%, 81.2% and 67.6% for praziquantel, oxamniquine and the combination respectively. The reduction of eggs excretion in non cured patients six months after therapy ranged from 93.8-96.8% with praziquantel, 32.5-97% with oxamniquine and 76.9-99.5% with the combination. It is concluded that, at the used dosages, the three therapeutical regimens give similar and satisfactory results in the treatment of uncomplicated S. mansoni infection in Brazil.

Acordo ortográfico: um puzzle de oito cabeças

Dissertação apresentada para o cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ensino do Português como Língua Segunda e Estrangeira.

Robot visual localization through local feature fusion: an evaluation of multiple classifiers combination approaches

In the last decade, local image features have been widely used in robot visual localization. In order to assess image similarity, a strategy exploiting these features compares raw descriptors extracted from the current image with those in the models of places. This paper addresses the ensuing step in this process, where a combining function must be used to aggregate results and assign each place a score. Casting the problem in the multiple classifier systems framework, in this paper we compare several candidate combiners with respect to their performance in the visual localization task. For this evaluation, we selected the most popular methods in the class of non-trained combiners, namely the sum rule and product rule. A deeper insight into the potential of these combiners is provided through a discriminativity analysis involving the algebraic rules and two extensions of these methods: the threshold, as well as the weighted modifications. In addition, a voting method, previously used in robot visual localization, is assessed. Furthermore, we address the process of constructing a model of the environment by describing how the model granularity impacts upon performance. All combiners are tested on a visual localization task, carried out on a public dataset. It is experimentally demonstrated that the sum rule extensions globally achieve the best performance, confirming the general agreement on the robustness of this rule in other classification problems. The voting method, whilst competitive with the product rule in its standard form, is shown to be outperformed by its modified versions.

Distributed energy resources scheduling considering real-time resources forecast

Energy resource scheduling is becoming increasingly important, such as the use of more distributed generators and electric vehicles connected to the distribution network. This paper proposes a methodology to be used by Virtual Power Players (VPPs), regarding the energy resource scheduling in smart grids and considering day-ahead, hour-ahead and realtime time horizons. This method considers that energy resources are managed by a VPP which establishes contracts with their owners. The full AC power flow calculation included in the model takes into account network constraints. In this paper, distribution function errors are used to simulate variations between time horizons, and to measure the performance of the proposed methodology. A 33-bus distribution network with large number of distributed resources is used.

Entomophthoramycosis by Conidiobolus coronatus. Report of a case successfully treated with the combination of itraconazole and fluconazole

Rhinoentomophthoramycosis caused by Conidiobolus coronatus in a 61-year old woman was unsuccessfully treated during 8 years with all the antifungals available in the Brazilian market, including potassium iodide for 1 month, sulfamethoxazole plus trimethoprim for 2 months, amphotericin B, total dose of 1130 mg, cetoconazole, 400 mg/day for 6 months, fluconazole, 200 mg/day, for at least 2 months and, itraconazole, 400 mg/day for 2 months, followed by 200 mg/day for 4 more months. Complete clinical and mycological cure was achieved using itraconazol 400 mg/day in association with fluconazol 200 mg/day during 24 months. After cure she was submitted to plastic surgery to repair her facial deformation. Today she remains clinically and mycologically cured after 59/60 months (5 years!) without any specific antifungal. We thus suggest the use of the combination of itraconazole and fluconazole as an additional option for the treatment of this mycosis.

Towards the Combination of Work-Stealing and Semi-Partitioned Scheduling for Parallel Tasks

Paper/Poster presented in Work in Progress Session, 28th GI/ITG International Conference on Architecture of Computing Systems (ARCS 2015). 24 to 26, Mar, 2015. Porto, Portugal.

Towards the Combination of Work-Stealing and Semi-Partitioned Scheduling for Parallel Tasks

Poster presented in Work in Progress Session, 28th GI/ITG International Conference on Architecture of Computing Systems (ARCS 2015). 24 to 26, Mar, 2015. Porto, Portugal.

In vitro and in vivo antileishmanial efficacy of a combination therapy of diminazene and artesunate against Leishmania donovani in BALB/c mice

The in vitro and in vivo activity of diminazene (Dim), artesunate (Art) and combination of Dim and Art (Dim-Art) against Leishmania donovani was compared to reference drug; amphotericin B. IC50 of Dim-Art was found to be 2.28 ± 0.24 µg/mL while those of Dim and Art were 9.16 ± 0.3 µg/mL and 4.64 ± 0.48 µg/mL respectively. The IC50 for Amphot B was 0.16 ± 0.32 µg/mL against stationary-phase promastigotes. In vivo evaluation in the L. donovani BALB/c mice model indicated that treatments with the combined drug therapy at doses of 12.5 mg/kg for 28 consecutive days significantly (p < 0.001) reduced parasite burden in the spleen as compared to the single drug treatments given at the same dosages. Although parasite burden was slightly lower (p < 0.05) in the Amphot B group than in the Dim-Art treatment group, the present study demonstrates the positive advantage and the potential use of the combined therapy of Dim-Art over the constituent drugs, Dim or Art when used alone. Further evaluation is recommended to determine the most efficacious combination ratio of the two compounds.

Impact of Taraxerol in combination with extract of Euphorbia tirucalli plant on biological parameters of Lymnaea acuminata

The present work was carried out to evaluate the molluscicidal activity of active ingredient Taraxerol with the acetone extract of Euphorbia tirucalli against Lymnaea acuminata snail. The (fecundity, hatchability and survivability) of snail L. acuminata exposed to this extract was studied. The effects of the tested extracts on life-history traits of harmful snail L. acuminata have also been evaluated, and this study also expounds the inhibitory effects of these extracts singly as well as in binary combination (1:1 ratio). It concluded that these herbal products act as a potential source of molluscicides, and that they would also have the advantage of easy availability, low cost, biodegradability and greater acceptance amongst users than synthetic pesticide.