Radiographic imaging for traumatic ankle injuries : a demand profile and investigation of radiological reporting timeframes from an Australian tertiary facility

Background Radiographic examinations of the ankle are important in the clinical management of ankle injuries in hospital emergency departments. National (Australian) Emergency Access Targets (NEAT) stipulate that 90 percent of presentations should leave the emergency department within 4 hours. For a radiological report to have clinical usefulness and relevance to clinical teams treating patients with ankle injuries in emergency departments, the report would need to be prepared and available to the clinical team within the NEAT 4 hour timeframe; before the patient has left the emergency department. However, little is known about the demand profile of ankle injuries requiring radiographic examination or time until radiological reports are available for this clinical group in Australian public hospital emergency settings. Methods This study utilised a prospective cohort of consecutive cases of ankle examinations from patients (n=437) with suspected traumatic ankle injuries presenting to the emergency department of a tertiary hospital facility. Time stamps from the hospital Picture Archiving and Communication System were used to record the timing of three processing milestones for each patient's radiographic examination; the time of image acquisition, time of a provisional radiological report being made available for viewing by referring clinical teams, and time of final verification of radiological report. Results Radiological reports and all three time stamps were available for 431 (98.6%) cases and were included in analysis. The total time between image acquisition and final radiological report verification exceeded 4?hours for 404 (92.5%) cases. The peak demand for radiographic examination of ankles was on weekend days, and in the afternoon and evening. The majority of examinations were provisionally reported and verified during weekday daytime shift hours. Conclusions Provisional or final radiological reports were frequently not available within 4 hours of image acquisition among this sample. Effective and cost-efficient strategies to improve the support provided to referring clinical teams from medical imaging departments may enhance emergency care interventions for people presenting to emergency departments with ankle injuries; particularly those with imaging findings that may be challenging for junior clinical staff to interpret without a definitive radiological report.

The impact of a congestion charging exemption on the demand for new low‐emission vehicles

Numerous initiatives have been employed around the world in order to address rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions originating from the transport sector. These measures include: travel demand management (congestion‐charging), increased fuel taxes, alternative fuel subsidies and low‐emission vehicle (LEV) rebates. Incentivizing the purchase of LEVs has been one of the more prevalent approaches in attempting to tackle this global issue. LEVs, whilst having the advantage of lower emissions and, in some cases, more efficient fuel consumption, also bring the downsides of increased purchase cost, reduced convenience of vehicle fuelling, and operational uncertainty. To stimulate demand in the face of these challenges, various incentive‐based policies, such as toll exemptions, have been used by national and local governments to encourage the purchase of these types of vehicles. In order to address rising GHG emissions in Stockholm, and in line with the Swedish Government’s ambition to operate a fossil free fleet by 2030, a number of policies were implemented targeting the transport sector. Foremost amongst these was the combination of a congestion charge – initiated to discourage emissions‐intensive travel – and an exemption from this charge for some LEVs, established to encourage a transition towards a ‘green’ vehicle fleet. Although both policies shared the aim of reducing GHG emissions, the exemption for LEVs carried the risk of diminishing the effectiveness of the congestion charging scheme. As the number of vehicle owners choosing to transition to an eligible LEV increased, the congestion‐reduction effectiveness of the charging scheme weakened. In fact, policy makers quickly recognized this potential issue and consequently phased out the LEV exemption less than 18 months after its introduction (1). Several studies have investigated the demand for LEVs through stated‐preference (SP) surveys across multiple countries, including: Denmark (2), Germany (3, 4), UK (5), Canada (6), USA (7, 8) and Australia (9). Although each of these studies differed in approach, all involved SP surveys where differing characteristics between various types of vehicles, including LEVs, were presented to respondents and these respondents in turn made hypothetical decisions about which vehicle they would be most likely to purchase. Although these studies revealed a number of interesting findings in regards to the potential demand for LEVs, they relied on SP data. In contrast, this paper employs an approach where LEV choice is modelled by taking a retrospective view and by using revealed preference (RP) data. By examining the revealed preferences of vehicle owners in Stockholm, this study overcomes one of the principal limitations of SP data, namely that stated preferences may not in fact reflect individuals’ actual choices, such as when cost, time, and inconvenience factors are real rather than hypothetical. This paper’s RP approach involves modelling the characteristics of individuals who purchased new LEVs, whilst estimating the effect of the congestion charging exemption upon choice probabilities and subsequent aggregate demand. The paper contributes to the current literature by examining the effectiveness of a toll exemption under revealed preference conditions, and by assessing the total effect of the policy based on key indicators for policy makers, including: vehicle owner home location, commuting patterns, number of children, age, gender and income. Extended Abstract Submission for Kuhmo Nectar Conference 2014 2 The two main research questions motivating this study were:  Which individuals chose to purchase a new LEV in Stockholm in 2008?; and,  How did the congestion charging exemption affect the aggregate demand for new LEVs in Stockholm in 2008? In order to answer these research questions the analysis was split into two stages. Firstly, a multinomial logit (MNL) model was used to identify which demographic characteristics were most significantly related to the purchase of an LEV over a conventional vehicle. The three most significant variables were found to be: intra‐cordon residency (positive); commuting across the cordon (positive); and distance of residence from the cordon (negative). In order to estimate the effect of the exemption policy on vehicle purchase choice, the model included variables to control for geographic differences in preferences, based on the location of the vehicle owners’ homes and workplaces in relation to the congestion‐charging cordon boundary. These variables included one indicator representing commutes across the cordon and another indicator representing intra‐cordon residency. The effect of the exemption policy on the probability of purchasing LEVs was estimated in the second stage of the analysis by focusing on the groups of vehicle owners that were most likely to have been affected by the policy i.e. those commuting across the cordon boundary (in both directions). Given the inclusion of the indicator variable representing commutes across the cordon, it is assumed that the estimated coefficient of this variable captures the effect of the exemption policy on the utility of choosing to purchase an exempt LEV for these two groups of vehicle owners. The intra‐cordon residency indicator variable also controls for differences between the two groups, based upon direction of travel across the cordon boundary. A counter‐hypothesis to this assumption is that the coefficient of the variable representing commuting across the cordon boundary instead only captures geo‐demographic differences that lead to variations in LEV ownership across the different groups of vehicle owners in relation to the cordon boundary. In order to address this counter‐hypothesis, an additional analysis was performed on data from a city with a similar geodemographic pattern to Stockholm, Gothenburg ‐ Sweden’s second largest city. The results of this analysis provided evidence to support the argument that the coefficient of the variable representing commutes across the cordon was capturing the effect of the exemption policy. Based upon this framework, the predicted vehicle type shares were calculated using the estimated coefficients of the MNL model and compared with predicted vehicle type shares from a simulated scenario where the exemption policy was inactive. This simulated scenario was constructed by setting the coefficient for the variable representing commutes across the cordon boundary to zero for all observations to remove the utility benefit of the exemption policy. Overall, the procedure of this second stage of the analysis led to results showing that the exemption had a substantial effect upon the probability of purchasing and aggregate demand for exempt LEVs in Stockholm during 2008. By making use of unique evidence of revealed preferences of LEV owners, this study identifies the common characteristics of new LEV owners and estimates the effect of Stockholm's congestion charging exemption upon the demand for new LEVs during 2008. It was found that the variables that had the greatest effect upon the choice of purchasing an exempt LEV included intra‐cordon residency (positive), distance of home from the cordon (negative), and commuting across the cordon (positive). It was also determined that owners under the age of 30 years preferred non‐exempt LEVs (low CO2 LEVs), whilst those over the age of 30 years preferred electric vehicles. In terms of electric vehicles, it was apparent that those individuals living within the city had the highest propensity towards purchasing this vehicle type. A negative relationship between choosing an electric vehicle and the distance of an individuals’ residency from the cordon was also evident. Overall, the congestion charging exemption was found to have increased the share of exempt LEVs in Stockholm by 1.9%, with, as expected, a much stronger effect on those commuting across the boundary, with those living inside the cordon having a 13.1% increase, and those owners living outside the cordon having a 5.0% increase. This increase in demand corresponded to an additional 538 (+/‐ 93; 95% C.I.) new exempt LEVs purchased in Stockholm during 2008 (out of a total of 5 427; 9.9%). Policy makers can take note that an incentive‐based policy can increase the demand for LEVs and appears to be an appropriate approach to adopt when attempting to reduce transport emissions through encouraging a transition towards a ‘green’ vehicle fleet.

When supply does not meet demand-ER stress and plant programmed cell death

The endoplasmic reticulum (ER) is the central organelle in the eukaryotic secretory pathway. The ER functions in protein synthesis and maturation and is crucial for proper maintenance of cellular homeostasis and adaptation to adverse environments. Acting as a cellular sentinel, the ER is exquisitely sensitive to changing environments principally via the ER quality control machinery. When perturbed, ER-stress triggers a tightly regulated and highly conserved, signal transduction pathway known as the unfolded protein response (UPR) that prevents the dangerous accumulation of unfolded/misfolded proteins. In situations where excessive UPR activity surpasses threshold levels, cells deteriorate and eventually trigger programmed cell death (PCD) as a way for the organism to cope with dysfunctional or toxic signals. The programmed cell death that results from excessive ER stress in mammalian systems contributes to several important diseases including hypoxia, neurodegeneration, and diabetes. Importantly, hallmark features and markers of cell death that are associated with ER stress in mammals are also found in plants. In particular, there is a common, conserved set of chaperones that modulate ER cell death signaling. Here we review the elements of plant cell death responses to ER stress and note that an increasing number of plant-pathogen interactions are being identified in which the host ER is targeted by plant pathogens to establish compatibility.

Application to set aside statutory demand

In C & E Pty Ltd v Corrigan [2006] QCA 47, the Queensland Court of Appeal considered whether r103 of the Uniform Civil Procedure Rules applied to the service of an application to set aside a statutory demand under s459G of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). The decision provides analysis and clarification of an issue that has clearly been one of some uncertainty.

Conceptual framework for understanding the demand for emergency health services

Background & Objectives Emergency health services (EHS) throughout the world are increasingly congested. As more people use EHS, factors such as population growth and aging cannot fully explain this increase. Also, focus on patients’ clinical characteristics ignores the role that attitudinal and perceptual factors and motivations play in directing their decisions and actions. The aim of this study is to review and synthesize an integrated conceptual framework for understanding social psychological factors underpinning demand for EHS. Methodology A comprehensive search and review of empirical and theoretical studies about the utilization of EHS was conducted using major medical, health, social and behavioral sciences databases. Results A small number of studies used a relevant conceptual framework (e.g. Health Services Utilization Model or Health Belief Model) or their components to analyze patients’ decision to use EHS. The studies evidenced that demand was affected by perceived severity of the condition; perceived costs and benefits (e.g. availability, accessibility and affordability of alternative services); experience, preference and knowledge; perceived and actual social support; and demographic characteristics (e.g. age, sex, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, marital and living circumstances, place of residence). Conclusions Conceptual models that are commonly used in areas like social and behavioral sciences have rarely been applied in the EHS utilization field. Understanding patients’ decision-making and associated factors will lay the groundwork for identification of the evidence to inform improved policy responses and the development of demand management strategies. An integrated conceptual framework will be introduced as part of this study.

Automatic inference of driving task demand from visual cues of emotion and attention

Sensing the mental, physical and emotional demand of a driving task is of primary importance in road safety research and for effectively designing in-vehicle information systems (IVIS). Particularly, the need of cars capable of sensing and reacting to the emotional state of the driver has been repeatedly advocated in the literature. Algorithms and sensors to identify patterns of human behavior, such as gestures, speech, eye gaze and facial expression, are becoming available by using low cost hardware: This paper presents a new system which uses surrogate measures such as facial expression (emotion) and head pose and movements (intention) to infer task difficulty in a driving situation. 11 drivers were recruited and observed in a simulated driving task that involved several pre-programmed events aimed at eliciting emotive reactions, such as being stuck behind slower vehicles, intersections and roundabouts, and potentially dangerous situations. The resulting system, combining face expressions and head pose classification, is capable of recognizing dangerous events (such as crashes and near misses) and stressful situations (e.g. intersections and way giving) that occur during the simulated drive.

Paratransit demand of disabled people

This paper estimates the demand for transportation systems that are used primarily by disabled individuals. These systems are known as paratransit systems and have experienced large increases in number and average size over the past 15 years. We first use a national database and standard time series techniques to model aggregate demand. We then use a unique data set of administrative records from a paratransit system in central Virginia to estimate standard and nonstandard count models of individual demand. We conclude that most of the demand growth is from new passengers, but that predicting the growth of new passengers is very difficult. Our results also highlight the importance of incorporating autocorrelation and possible sample attrition into standard count models.

The effect of education programs on paratransit demand of people with disabilities

We describe a passenger education program to encourage responsible use of paratransit by people with disabilities. We use state-of-the-art econometric techniques to evaluate its success. We find that it has moderate effects on demand for transportation but large effects on how passengers use the transportation. In particular, passengers are more responsible about meeting the transportation at the curb rather than waiting for help inside their home. Cost-benefit analysis of the program suggests that it is a long-term worthwhile activity.

A disaggregate discrete choice model of transportation demand by elderly and disabled people in rural Virginia

This paper uses a correlated multinomial logit model and a Poisson regression model to measure the factors affecting demand for different types of transportation by elderly and disabled people in rural Virginia. The major results are: (a) A paratransit system providing door-to-door service is highly valued by transportation-handicapped people; (b) Taxis are probably a potential but inferior alternative even when subsidized; (c) Buses are a poor alternative, especially in rural areas where distances to bus stops may be long; (d) Making buses handicap-accessible would have a statistically significant but small effect on mode choice; (e) Demand is price inelastic; and (f) The total number of trips taken is insensitive to mode availability and characteristics. These results suggest that transportation-handicapped people take a limited number of trips. Those they do take are in some sense necessary (given the low elasticity with respect to mode price or availability). People will substitute away from relying upon others when appropriate transportation is available, at least to some degree. But such transportation needs to be flexible enough to meet the needs of the people involved.

Semiparametric estimates of the supply and demand effects of disability on labor force participation

This paper modifies and uses the semiparametric methods of Ichimura and Lee (1991) on standard cross-section data to decompose the effect of disability on labor force participation into a demand and a supply effect. It shows that straightforward use of Ichimura and Lee leads to meaningless results while imposing monotonicity on the unknown function leads to substantial results. The paper finds that supply effects dominate the demand effects of disability.

Polarization of forecast densities : a new approach to time series classification

Time series classification has been extensively explored in many fields of study. Most methods are based on the historical or current information extracted from data. However, if interest is in a specific future time period, methods that directly relate to forecasts of time series are much more appropriate. An approach to time series classification is proposed based on a polarization measure of forecast densities of time series. By fitting autoregressive models, forecast replicates of each time series are obtained via the bias-corrected bootstrap, and a stationarity correction is considered when necessary. Kernel estimators are then employed to approximate forecast densities, and discrepancies of forecast densities of pairs of time series are estimated by a polarization measure, which evaluates the extent to which two densities overlap. Following the distributional properties of the polarization measure, a discriminant rule and a clustering method are proposed to conduct the supervised and unsupervised classification, respectively. The proposed methodology is applied to both simulated and real data sets, and the results show desirable properties.

Demand for refilled reusable products

The conversion of one-way polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles into reusable bottles helps reduce environmental burden. Recently, the Ministry of the Environment in Japan began discussing the introduction of reusable bottles. One of the barriers to introducing the new type of bottle is consumer unwillingness to accept refilled reusable bottles. We administered the questionnaires to consumers in a pilot test on reusable PET bottles organized to analyze the demand for these products. To increase the demand for refilled reusable bottles, it is necessary to supply refilled reusable bottles that are acceptable to consumers who are concerned about container flaws and stains.

Valuing the influence of underlying attitudes and the demand for organic milk in Japan

Subjective perceptions about a product affect consumer choice. Accordingly, acquiring the underlying demand characteristics that consumers find desirable is vital for firms planning future marketing strategies. However, the extent to which product-specific perceptions affect consumer choice is poorly understood. New agricultural standards for organic livestock were introduced in Japan in November 2005 and are expected to influence the market significantly. Choice modeling (CM) is used to explore how consumers evaluate the latent demands and conventional attributes (or tangible values) of organic milk. The results suggest that latent demands, along with socioeconomic characteristics and conventional attributes, provide strong incentives for consumers to move from the purchase of conventional milk to organic milk. The analysis indicates that latent demands reflecting the safeness of organic milk, the better taste of organic milk, the image of environmental friendliness in the production process, and the image of the health and comfort of the cows are important factors that influence consumers' purchasing decisions. However, each specific factor has a corresponding conventional tangible attribute that needs to be targeted in marketing strategy.

Demand Response for Residential Appliances in a Smart Electricity Distribution Network: Utility and Customer Perspectives

This thesis introduces advanced Demand Response algorithms for residential appliances to provide benefits for both utility and customers. The algorithms are engaged in scheduling appliances appropriately in a critical peak day to alleviate network peak, adverse voltage conditions and wholesale price spikes also reducing the cost of residential energy consumption. Initially, a demand response technique via customer reward is proposed, where the utility controls appliances to achieve network improvement. Then, an improved real-time pricing scheme is introduced and customers are supported by energy management schedulers to actively participate in it. Finally, the demand response algorithm is improved to provide frequency regulation services.