3-Regime symmetric STAR modeling and exchange rate reversion

The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system and the adoption of generalized oating exchange rates ushered in a new era of exchange rate volatility and uncer- tainty. This increased volatility lead economists to search for economic models able to describe observed exchange rate behavior. In the present paper we propose more general STAR transition functions which encompass both threshold nonlinearity and asymmetric e¤ects. Our framework allows for a gradual adjustment from one regime to another, and considers threshold e¤ects by encompassing other existing models, such as TAR models. We apply our methodology to three di¤erent exchange rate data-sets, one for developing countries, and o¢ cial nominal exchange rates, the sec- ond emerging market economies using black market exchange rates and the third for OECD economies.

Mobile Marketing in Japan

Mobiilimarkkinoinnin markkinat ovat vasta rakentumassa ja suurin osa alan toimijoista etenkin Suomessa yrittää vielä löytää rooliaan. Sen sijaan Japanissa sisällöntuotantoliiketoiminta matkapuhelimille kukoistaa ja mobiilimarkkinointi on jo saavuttanut merkittävän aseman mobiili-internetin palvelutarjonnassa. Toisin kuin Suomessa, jossa mobiilimarkkinat ovat vielä lastenkengissä, Japanissa myös mobiilimarkkinoinnin arvoketju on vähitellen muotoutumassa.Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli antaa käsitys Japanin mobiilimarkkinoinnin dynamiikasta ja luoda viitekehys operaattorin tulevalle roolille mobiilimarkkinoinnin markkinoiden rakentamisessa. Tutkimus on deskriptiivinen ja aineisto on kerätty alan kirjallisuudesta sekä haastattelemalla tärkeitä mobiilimarkkinoiden toimijoita Japanissa. Japanissa operaattoreilla (NTT DoCoMo, J-Phone ja KDDI) on erittäin vahva asema mobiili-internetin ja mobiilimarkkinoinnin markkinoilla. Ne hallitsevat asiakasrajapintaa, päättävät mobiiliverkon ja matkapuhelimien ominaisuuksista sekä siitä, ketkä sisällöntuottajista pääsevät osaksi heidän laskutusjärjestelmäänsä. Markkinoinnissa operaattoreilla ei ole yhtä näkyvää roolia. Omistussuhteiden kautta ne kuitenkin vaikuttavat lähes koko arvoketjuun. Operaattorit ovat yhdessä Japanin suurimpien mainostoimistojen kanssa luoneet tytäryhtiöitä, jotka hoitavat mainonnan operaattorin mobiiliportaalissa. Japanissa operaattori on ottanut hallitsevan roolin mobiilimarkkinoiden rakentamisessa. Tiivis yhteistyö eri toimijoiden, kuten matkapuhelinvalmistajien, sisällöntuottajien ja mainostoimistojen kanssa, on mahdollistanut kokonaisvaltaisen palvelupaketin tarjoamisen. Palvelupaketti sisältää käyttäjäystävällisen liittymän mobiili-internetiin sekä edulliset puhelimet. Juuri tiivis yhteistyö onkin ollut yksi tärkeimmistä menestystekijöistä Japanin markkinoita rakennettaessa. Mobiilimarkkinoita rakennettaessa operaattorilla on merkittävä rooli markkinoiden muodostajana ja sisällön kokoojana. Operaattorien tulee varautua roskapostin vastaiseen taisteluun, jos sähköpostia annetaan lähettää suoraan matkapuhelimeen. On erityisen tärkeää varmistaa, ettei käyttäjien tarvitse kärsiä roskapostista, muuten suoramarkkinoinnin mahdollisuus matkapuhelimeen menetetään. Ainoastaan aktiivisella edistämisellä ja osallistumisella mobiili-internetin sisällöntuotanto- ja markkinointiliiketoimintaan operaattori voi vahvistaa markkina-asemaansa ja varmistaa osuutensa tulevista markkinoista.

Venäläisten yritysten kansainvälistyminen

Tämän kandidaatintyön tavoitteena on selvittää ja analysoida venäläisten yritysten kansainvälistymistä investointien näkökulmasta. Aihetta tutkittiin Venäjältä ulospäin suuntautuneiden investointien valossa. Kansainvälistymistä analysoitiin konkreettisten yritysesimerkkien kautta. Työssä käytettiin lähteinä aikaisempia aiheesta tehtyjä tutkimuksia sekä esimerkkeinä olevien yritysten internetsivuja. Venäläisten yritysten kansainvälistyminen alkoi toden teolla vasta Neuvostoliiton hajoamisen jälkeen. Käytännössä yritysten kansainvälistyminen on lähtenyt kasvuun vasta 2000-luvulla. Viime vuosien aikana Venäjä on ollut yksi suurimmista ulospäin investoijista nousevien markkinatalouksien joukossa. Suurimmat Venäjältä ulospäin investoijat toimivat öljy- ja kaasuteollisuudessa sekä metalli- ja kaivosteollisuudessa. Kyseiset teollisuudenalat ovat riippuvaisia raaka-aineiden maailmanmarkkinahinnoista. Vuoden 2008 lopulla alkanut talouskriisi on alentanut raaka-aineiden hintoja ja näin vaikuttanut yritysten toimintaan. Yritykset ovat joutuneet talousvaikeuksiin, joka on vaikuttanut myös niiden investointeihin ulkomaille. Tällä hetkellä Venäjä on riippuvainen luonnonvaroihin perustuvista teollisuudenaloista, mutta tulevaisuudessa uusilla yrityksillä on mahdollisuuksia nousta kansainvälisien yritysten joukkoon. Raaka-aineiden hintojen kääntyessä jälleen nousuun myös luonnonvaroihin perustuvat yritykset tulevat nousemaan ahdingosta ja jatkamaan kansainvälistymistä.

Disruptive innovations at the bottom of the pyramid : can they impact the sustainability of today´s top companies?

Due to the different dynamics required for organizations to serve the emerging market which contains billions of people at the bottom of the pyramid (BOP) coupled with the increasing desire for organizations to grow and be more multinational, organizations need to continually innovate. However, the tendency for large and established companies to ignore the BOP market and rather focus on existing markets, gives an indication of the existence of a vulnerability that potentially disruptive innovations from the BOP will not be recognized in good time for a counter measure. This can be deduced from the fact that good management practice advocates that managers should learn and listen to their customers. Therefore majority of the large existing companies continually focus on their main customer/market with sustaining innovations which leaves aspiring new entrants with an underserved BOP market to experiment with. With the aid of research interviews and an agent-based model (ABM) simulation, this thesis examines the attributes of BOP innovations that can qualify them as disruptive and the possibilities of tangible disruptive innovations arising from the bottom of the pyramid and their underlying drivers. The thesis Furthermore, examines the associated impact of such innovations on the future sustainability of established large companies that are operating in the developed world, particularly those with a primary focus which is targeted towards the market at the top of the pyramid (TOP). Additionally, with the use of a scenario planning model, the research provides an evaluation of the possible evolution and potential sustainability impacts that could emerge, from the interplay of innovations at the two pyramidal market levels and the chosen market focus of organizations – TOP or BOP. Using four scenario quadrants, the thesis demonstrates the resulting possibilities from the interaction between the rate of innovations and the segment focused on by organizations with disruptive era characterizing the paradigm shift quadrant. Furthermore, a mathematical model and two theoretical propositions are developed for further research. As recommendations, the thesis also extends the ambidextrous organizational theory, business model innovation and portfolio diversification as plausible recommendations to limit a catastrophic impact, resulting from disruptive innovations.

Idiosyncratic volatility around information release date

Several papers document idiosyncratic volatility is time-varying and many attempts have been made to reveal whether idiosyncratic risk is priced. This research studies behavior of idiosyncratic volatility around information release dates and also its relation with return after public announcement. The results indicate that when a company discloses specific information to the market, firm’s specific volatility level shifts and short-horizon event-induced volatility vary significantly however, the category to which the announcement belongs is not important in magnitude of change. This event-induced volatility is not small in size and should not be downplayed in event studies. Moreover, this study shows stocks with higher contemporaneous realized idiosyncratic volatility earn lower return after public announcement consistent with “divergence of opinion hypothesis”. While no significant relation is found between EGARCH estimated idiosyncratic volatility and return and also between one-month lagged idiosyncratic volatility and return presumably due to significant jump around public announcement both may provide some signals regarding future idiosyncratic volatility through their correlations with contemporaneous realized idiosyncratic volatility. Finally, the study show that positive relation between return and idiosyncratic volatility based on under-diversification is inadequate to explain all different scenarios and this negative relation after public announcement may provide a useful trading rule.

Antecedents and Performance Outcomes of Entrepreneurial Orientation: a Comparative Cross-Country Study

Development of entrepreneurial orientation (EO) within a company is considered to be significant for firm performance in a contemporary market society with constantly changing environment. Considered as entrepreneurial, the firm is able to innovate, make risky investments and be proactive. The purpose of the thesis is to investigate factors which influence EO, the impact of EO on firm performance, and a mediating role of EO in developed and emerging market contexts. The empirical research is conducted quantitatively in a form of a survey in Russia and Finland. The results of the thesis have shown that the relationship between antecedents, EO and firm performance outcomes is different in developed and emerging contexts and can be explained by cultural differences and institutional development. The empirical research has both theoretical and practical novelty. It contributes to the existing literature on EO by the usage of comparative cross-country approach and a broader three-way interaction model between the variables. A general practical implication of the research is that managers may benefit from developing entrepreneurial strategic posture in particular contexts.

Value at Risk in Foreign Exchange Risk Management

This thesis examines the suitability of VaR in foreign exchange rate risk management from the perspective of a European investor. The suitability of four different VaR models is evaluated in respect to have insight if VaR is a valuable tool in managing foreign exchange rate risk. The models evaluated are historical method, historical bootstrap method, variance-covariance method and Monte Carlo simulation. The data evaluated are divided into emerging and developed market currencies to have more intriguing analysis. The foreign exchange rate data in this thesis is from 31st January 2000 to 30th April 2014. The results show that the previously mentioned VaR models performance in foreign exchange risk management is not to be considered as a single tool in foreign exchange rate risk management. The variance-covariance method and Monte Carlo simulation performs poorest in both currency portfolios. Both historical methods performed better but should also be considered as an additional tool along with other more sophisticated analysis tools. A comparative study of VaR estimates and forward prices is also included in the thesis. The study reveals that regardless of the expensive hedging cost of emerging market currencies the risk captured by VaR is more expensive and thus FX forward hedging is recommended

The Impact of the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis on the Relationship between Central Bank Rates and the Corresponding Interbank Interest Rates in 2002-2014

The role of central banks throughout the global financial system has become even more important during and after the events of the financial crisis. In order to stabilize the market conditions and provide solid ground for future development, the central banks use discount rate as their primary monetary policy tool in many developed and emerging economies. The purpose of this thesis is to examine how the relationship between central bank rates and corresponding interbank rates has developed before, during and after the crisis period of 2007-2009 in five developed countries and five emerging market countries. The results indicate that during the before-crisis period the interest rate markets reacted diversely but the joint recovery attempts of global economies seem to have stabilized the reactions during and especially after the crisis. The crisis also seems to have highlighted the characteristics of each country’s survival strategy as the role of other policy instruments arose.

Globalização e inconversibilidade monetária

The central hypothesis of this article is that in the context of globalization, monetary inconvertibility is a crucial problem of peripheral countries. It begins with a brief review of the debate from a historical point of view and then stresses the contemporary opposite's views on the fragility of financial system of emerging countries: the original sin and the debt intolerance hypothesis. Despite of supporting the first one, the article goes further and explores the domestic implication of inconvertibility. It criticizes the jurisdicional uncertainty proposition showing that an inherent flaw in the store of value of emerging market currencies, derived from original sin is the main reason for de facto inconvertibility and underdevelopment of domestic financial system of these countries.

Economic stagnation in the United States: underlying causes and global consequences

This paper analyzes the causes of the slow recovery of the US economy since the financial crisis and Great Recession of 2008-9. Fallen house values and excessive household debts continue to depress consumer spending, while corporations are failing to invest in spite of record profits. The increasingly unequal distribution of income limits demand, while long-term structural transformations continue to erode employment creation. An expansionary monetary policy has been incapable of sparking a more robust recovery and fiscal policy has been shifted to an austerity stance. In this context, Brazil and other emerging market nations cannot count on the United States to continue to be the leading source of global demand as it was in previous decades.

Incidencia de la evolución de los intereses estratégicos de Rusia y de Kazajstán en las dinámicas de cooperación bilateral. Periodo 1991 – 2004

El trabajo desarrolla la forma en la que evolucionaron las relaciones bilaterales entre Rusia y Kazajstán desde el periodo inmediatamente posterior a la caída de la URSS donde no existía una relación cercana, hasta el año 2001 donde se empieza a hablar de una cooperación entre los dos actores que llevó a una estrecha relación bilateral.

Plataforma web y sistema integral de incentivos basado en el esquema de cupones online y el mercado de compras colectivas

En este trabajo se realiza una descripción y análisis del esquema de funcionamiento detrás del emergente mercado de las compras colectivas y los cupones online desde una perspectiva tanto teórica como empírica. Inicialmente, se desarrolla un marco teórico teniendo en cuenta elementos de: teoría económica, e-marketing y comercio electrónico en los que se basa éste mercado. Posteriormente, se muestra el proyecto de implementación de una plataforma virtual y un sistema de incentivos basado en el esquema de cupones online desarrollado por el autor para la franquicia de tarjetas de crédito Diners Club International del Banco Davivienda S.A. en Colombia

El papel de las organizaciones Internacionales en la imagen de los Estados en el escenario internacional: La crisis Financiera de Argentina y la actuación del Fondo Monetario Internacional 2000- 2010

El presente trabajo de investigación tiene como objetivo identificar el papel que tuvo el Fondo Monetario Internacional [FMI] en el cambio de la imagen del Estado argentino después de la crisis financiera que estalló en el 2001. Como consecuencia de la declaración de default por parte del gobierno argentino se da un cambio en la imagen financiera del país, influenciada por el FMI, que convierte a Argentina en un paria internacional en temas financieros y comerciales alejándolo de los mercados internacionales. Este estudio de caso tendrá un acercamiento cualitativo dado que se analizarán las características, actuaciones y las bases crean el lazo entre las variables de la crisis financiera y el rol del FMI en Argentina y así poder entender su relación.

Real estate and social inequality in Latin America: approaches in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Colombia

Latin America is known as the most unequal region in the world, where extreme displays of wealth and exposure to scarcity lay bare in the urban landscape. Inequality is not just a social issue; it has considerable impact on economic development. This is because social inequality generates instability and conflict, which can create unsettling conditions for investment. At the macro level, social inequality can also present barriers to economic development, as most government policies and resources tend to be directed in solving social conflict rather than to promote and generate growth. This is one of the reasons usually cited in explaining the development gap between Latin America and other emerging economies, take East Asia for example - they have similar policies to those applied recently in Latin America, but are achieving better growth. The other reason cited is institutional; this includes governance as well as property rights and enforcement of contracts. The latter is the focus of this chapter.

Speculative attacks, openness and crises

In this paper we propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to evaluate financial adjustments that some emerging market economies went through to overcome external crises during the latest decades, such as default and local currency devaluation. We assume that real devaluation can be used to avoid external debt default, to improve trade balance and to reduce the real public debt level denominated in local currency. Such effects increase the government ability to deal with external crisis, but also have costs in terms of welfare, related to expected inflation, reductions in private investments and higher interest to be paid over the public debt. We conclude that openness improves expected welfare as it allows for a better devaluation-response technology against crises. We also present results for 32 middle-income countries, verifying that the proposed model can indicate, in a stylized way, the preferences for default-devaluation options and the magnitude of the currency depreciation required to overcome 48 external crises occurred as from 1971. Finally, as we construct our model based on the Cole-Kehoe self-fulfilling debt crisis model ([7]), adding local debt and trade, it is important to say that their policy alternatives to leave the crisis zone remains in our extended model, namely, to reduce the external debt level and to lengthen its maturity.