Vantagens e desvantagens do modelo dinâmico de Nelson-Siegel : aplicação ao mercado brasileiro

A modelagem da estrutura a termo da taxa juros tem grande relevância para o mercado financeiro, isso se deve ao fato de ser utilizada na precificação de títulos de crédito e derivativos, ser componente fundamental nas políticas econômicas e auxiliar a criação de estratégias trading. A classe de modelos criada por Nelson-Siegel (1987), foi estendida por diversos autores e atualmente é largamente utilizada por diversos bancos centrais ao redor do mundo. Nesse trabalho utilizaremos a extensão proposta por Diebold e Li (2006) aplicada para o mercado brasileiro, os parâmetros serão calibrados através do Filtro de Kalman e do Filtro de Kalman Estendido, sendo que o último método permitirá estimar com dinamismo os quatros parâmetros do modelo. Como mencionado por Durbin e Koopman (2012), as fórmulas envolvidas no filtro de Kalman e em sua versão estendida não impõe condições de dimensão constante do vetor de observações. Partindo desse conceito, a implementação dos filtros foi feita de forma a possibilitar sua aplicação independentemente do número de observações da curva de juros em cada instante de tempo, dispensando a necessidade de interpolar os dados antes da calibração. Isso ajuda a refletir mais fielmente a realidade do mercado e relaxar as hipóteses assumidas ao interpolar previamente para obter vértices fixos. Também será testada uma nova proposta de adaptação do modelo de Nelson-Siegel, nela o parâmetro de nível será condicionado aos títulos terem vencimento antes ou depois da próxima reunião do Copom. O objetivo é comparar qualidade da predição entre os métodos, pontuando quais são as vantagens e desvantagens encontradas em cada um deles.

Comparando a saúde no Brasil com os países da OCDE: explorando dados de saúde pública

A atenção à saúde da população no Brasil gera um grande volume de dados sobre os serviços de saúde prestados. O tratamento adequado destes dados com técnicas de acesso à grande massa de dados pode permitir a extração de informações importantes para um melhor conhecimento do setor saúde. Avaliar o desempenho dos sistemas de saúde através da utilização da massa de dados produzida tem sido uma tendência mundial, uma vez que vários países já mantêm programas de avaliação baseados em dados e indicadores. Neste contexto, A OCDE – Organização para Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico, que é uma organização internacional que avalia as políticas econômicas de seus 34 países membros, possui uma publicação bienal, chamada Health at a Glance, que tem por objetivo fazer a comparação dos sistemas de saúde dos países membros da OCDE. Embora o Brasil não seja um membro, a OCDE procura incluí-lo no cálculo de alguns indicadores, quando os dados estão disponíveis, pois considera o Brasil como uma das maiores economias que não é um país membro. O presente estudo tem por objetivo propor e implementar, com base na metodologia da publicação Health at a Glance de 2015, o cálculo para o Brasil de 22 indicadores em saúde que compõem o domínio “utilização de serviços em saúde” da publicação da OCDE. Para isto foi feito um levantamento das principais bases de dados nacionais em saúde disponíveis que posteriormente foram capturadas, conforme necessidade, através de técnicas para acessar e tratar o grande volume de dados em saúde no Brasil. As bases de dados utilizadas são provenientes de três principais fontes remuneração: SUS, planos privados de saúde e outras fontes de remuneração como, por exemplo, planos públicos de saúde, DPVAT e particular. A realização deste trabalho permitiu verificar que os dados em saúde disponíveis publicamente no Brasil podem ser usados na avaliação do desempenho do sistema de saúde, e além de incluir o Brasil no benchmark internacional dos países da OCDE nestes 22 indicadores, promoveu a comparação destes indicadores entre o setor público de saúde do Brasil, o SUS, e o setor de planos privados de saúde, a chamada saúde suplementar. Além disso, também foi possível comparar os indicadores calculados para o SUS para cada UF, demonstrando assim as diferenças na prestação de serviços de saúde nos estados do Brasil para o setor público. A análise dos resultados demonstrou que, em geral, o Brasil comparado com os países da OCDE apresenta um desempenho abaixo da média dos demais países, o que indica necessidade de esforços para atingir um nível mais alto na prestação de serviços em saúde que estão no âmbito de avaliação dos indicadores calculados. Quando segmentado entre SUS e saúde suplementar, a análise dos resultados dos indicadores do Brasil aponta para uma aproximação do desempenho do setor de saúde suplementar em relação à média dos demais países da OCDE, e por outro lado um distanciamento do SUS em relação a esta média. Isto evidencia a diferença no nível de prestação de serviços dentro do Brasil entre o SUS e a saúde suplementar. Por fim, como proposta de melhoria na qualidade dos resultados obtidos neste estudo sugere-se o uso da base de dados do TISS/ANS para as informações provenientes do setor de saúde suplementar, uma vez que o TISS reflete toda a troca de informações entre os prestadores de serviços de saúde e as operadoras de planos privados de saúde para fins de pagamento dos serviços prestados.

Da bancada ao Bureau: análise do desenvolvimento da biotecnologia no Nordeste Brasileiro sob o enfoque de Sistema Regional de Inovação

The starting point of the present work consisted of investigating the development of biotechnology in the Northeast region of Brazil from the perspective of a Regional Innovation System (RIS). The theoretical framework adopted relied on the approaches and concepts presented by the Neo-Schumpeterian perspective. This framework was chosen because, by means of the Innovation System concept, this literature allows us to analyze the relationships and configurations of actors, as well as the role of the state and of social, science and technology, and economic policies in the studied region. The analysis considered four selected dimensions: physical infrastructure, human capital, scientific production, and funding. These variables were chosen because they allow us to verify the possibilities and limitations of developing a biotechnology RIS in the Northeast of Brazil, and these elements would help in answering the question behind this dissertation. The location of the physical infrastructure was determined by means of bibliographic and documental research and interviews with heads of institutions that do biotechnology research. Regarding human capital, the analysis focused on resource training in biotechnology, highlighting graduate courses and research groups in the area. To measure knowledge production, we delimited scientific collaboration among researchers in the field of biotechnology as the focus of this category. For the funding dimension, information was gathered from reports available at the websites of national and state funding agencies. The data was analyzed through method triangulation, involving quantitative and qualitative research stages. To back the analyses, we revisited the integration policies in the area of Science, Technology and Innovation. Our analysis has shown that these policies play a crucial role in the development of biotechnology in the region being studied. The data revealed that the physical infrastructure is concentrated in only three states (Bahia, Ceará, and Pernambuco). In this regard, the Northeast Biotechnology Network (Renorbio) stands out as a strategic actor, enabling states with poor infrastructure to develop research through partnerships with institutions located in another state. We have also verified that the practices involving human resource training and knowledge production are factors that enable the emergence of a regional system for biotechnology in the studied region. As limitations, we have verified the low immersion level of regional actors, the heterogeneity of socioeconomic indicators, the lack of financial resources, and a low innovation culture in the business sector. Overall, we have concluded that the development of a Regional Innovation System in Biotechnology, based on the current regional dynamics, depends on an effective change in the behavior of the social agents involved, both in the national and regional dimensions as well as in the public and private spheres

Política de assistência social no Brasil: uma análise a partir das tipologias de políticas públicas

The study of public policy typologies is still a knowledge field which lacks more embracing and applicable studies to different sectors. On that perspective, this work, Social Assistance Policy in Brazil: an analysis from the typologies on public policy, pursues to add the relevant literature to social assistance what focus on the public policy ratings. Moreover, it concerns about a study on the the national policy of social assistance implemented by the Brazilian government from the theoretical referrence of the public policy typologies. For that reason, the referential framework of the public policies as well as the analisys of its fundamentals/principles that are indispensable for achieving a bigger goal, that is to tipify the social assistance policy based on the different public policy typologies and characterize it through the main elements which are intrinsec to the social political and economic reality of Brazil. Thus, the issue suggested for the work is: what is the profile and the political trajectory of the social assistance implemented by the Brazilian Government? How it presents, above all, the features of a distributive, focused and lawful policy, the work has been done througho the following hypothesis: the social assistance policy in Brazil has been of universal, assistance, and focusing aspects. For each of those features granted to the social assistance policy, there is a gathering of changes according to the social, political and economic moment of the country and that stands out due to the different institutions within every cyclical period. The work showed that besides the social policy has gone through meaningful changes during the last decades, even though the adoption of the Organic Law of Social Assistance and its rules, some of the mentioned characteristics still remain, as long as the State s primacy goes on being the economic policies over the dubbed social policies. Notwithstanding, the social assistance will build up itself from the materialization of the growing of the social rights related to the State, but also assuming an important role on the amplified reproducing process regarding the capitalist social relations

O direito à saúde e a política nacional de atenção oncológica: uma análise a partir da crescente judicialização dos medicamentos antineoplásicos

The 1988 Federal Constitution of Brazil by presenting the catalog of fundamental rights and guarantees (Title II) provides expressly that such rights reach the social, economic and cultural rights (art. 6 of CF/88) as a means not only to ratify the civil and political rights, but also to make them effective and practical in the life of the Brazilian people, particularly in the prediction of immediate application of those rights and guarantees. In this sense, health goes through condition of universal right and duty of the State, which should be guaranteed by social and economic policies aimed at reducing the risk of disease and other hazards, in addition to ensuring universal and equal access to actions and services for its promotion, protection and recovery (Article 196 by CF/88). Achieving the purposes aimed by the constituent to the area of health is the great challenge that requires the Health System and its managers. To this end, several policies have been structured in an attempt to establish actions and services for the promotion, protection and rehabilitation of diseases and disorders to health. In the mid-90s, in order to meet the guidelines and principles established by the SUS, it was established the Política Nacional de Atenção Oncológica PNAO, in an attempt to sketch out a public policy that sought to achieve maximum efficiency and to be able to give answers integral to effective care for patients with cancer, with emphasis on prevention, early detection, diagnosis, treatment, rehabilitation and palliative care. However, many lawsuits have been proposed with applications for anticancer drugs. These actions have become very complex, both in the procedural aspects and in all material ones, especially due to the highcost drugs more requested these demands, as well as need to be buoyed by the scientific evidence of these drugs in relation to proposed treatments. The jurisprudence in this area, although the orientations as outlined by the Parliament of Supreme Court is still in the process of construction, this study is thus placed in the perspective of contributing to the effective and efficient adjudication in these actions, with focus on achieving the fundamental social rights. Given this scenario and using research explanatory literature and documents were examined 108 lawsuits pending in the Federal Court in Rio Grande do Norte, trying to identify the organs of the Judiciary behave in the face of lawsuits that seeking oncology drugs (or antineoplastic), seeking to reconcile the principles and constitutional laws and infra constitutional involving the theme in an attempt to contribute to a rationalization of this judicial practice. Finally, considering the Rational Use of health demands and the idea of belonging to the Brazilian people SUS, it is concluded that the judicial power requires ballast parameters of their decisions on evidence-based medicine, aligning these decisions housing constitutional principles that the right to health and the scientific conclusions of efficacy, effectiveness and efficiency in oncology drugs, when compared to the treatments offered by SUS

Desenvolvimento nacional, desenvolvimento regional e moeda: notas teóricas à luz da economia política do desenvolvimento

This work analyses the ability of National States and regions have to formulations development strategies. Redeeming the initial development concept as a conflictual process, the hypothesis is that it presents internal and external constraints, as the latter have a higher preponderance, revealed the role played by money. In this case, one can point to as sub-hypothesis that the growth models with external constraint, mainly through the balance of payments, may illustrate the fact that countries are subject to international economic interactions that limit the possibility of bringing acylating strategies well successful in overcoming backwardness. For the specific case of regions, indicates that the external constraint remains an element of embarrassment for regional development, but redeems itself the center-periphery relations in this context to discuss the role of monetary and financial system as an explanation for the disparities regional income. On the domestic front, we highlight the importance of social structures of accumulation as an element of internal cohesion necessary to achieve successful development trajectories. It points also to the importance of the State in the process rescuing some of the main theoretical contributions of the political economy of development, incorporating the concept of globalization on theoretical frameworks presented. This construction where development depends on the actions of external and internal conditions, where money plays a key role as a guideline for reflections on regional development. The attempt was to transplant our considerations on the general development to address the case of regions. Finally, we conclude by greater confidence in the hypothesis and sub-hypotheses of departure, which led to propositions of economic policies

A evolução do emprego formal industrial nas cidades médias do estado do Ceará (Juazeiro do Norte, Crato e Sobral) no período de 1990 a 2010

The work consists in a discussion of the evolution of formal employment in the industrial cities of Ceará state averages from 1990 to 2010, since this period was marked by important changes. It is emphasized that in order to achieve this aim, the present study was based on a survey of relevant literature on the subject, as well as the use of the Annual Report of Social Information (RAIS), published by the Ministry of Labour and Employment (MTE) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The central question to be considered in this study is how we evolved formal employment industry in medium-sized cities (Juazeiro do Norte, Crato and Sobral) of Ceará? The assumption that guides this work is that given the economic policies of the 1990 and 2000 these policies encouraged the relocation, thus implying significant growth in the formal manufacturing employment in these cities. Regarding the results obtained in the survey, it was found that the industrial sector of these cities, showed considerable dynamism in what refers to the expansion of establishments. When observed in percentage terms medium-sized cities (345.5%) had the highest growth in number of establishments in the 1990s with rates higher than the Northeast region (285.9%) and Brazil (167.5%). The highlight was the city of Juazeiro, with the highest concentration of micro and small footwear companies in the state. Regarding the number of formal jobs created in medium-sized cities, it went from 6.596 in 1990 to 41.660 million formal jobs in 2010, with a growth rate of 532%. The sector contributed most to employment generation was the footwear. Although the levels of minimum wages, the 1990 recorded the lowest levels. In the 2000, there were real gains in levels of minimum wages in all cities, however, it may be noted that over the decades there has been significant momentum. However, this momentum was not enough to prevent the end of the study period CMs-Ceará present low wages

Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 1999

Includes bibliography

Regional financial cooperation

Includes bibliography

Strengthening development: the interplay of macro- and microeconomics

Includes bibliography

Sustainable development: changing production patterns, social equity and the environment

Includes bibliography

Structural change and productivity growth, 20 years later: old problems, new opportunities

Includes bibliography

Microeconomic behavior in high uncertainty environments: the case of Argentina

Includes bibliography

Modeling regional macroeconomic interactions: situation and perspectives for macroeconomic coordination in Latin America. Background paper prepared for the REDIMA workshop on Modeling Macroeconomic Coordination in the Andean Community, (Santiago, Chile 22 October 2003)""

Includes bibliography

MERCOSUR in transition: macroeconomic perspectives

Includes bibliography