The moving targets algorithm for difficult temporal credit assignment problems

The 'moving targets' algorithm for training recurrent networks is reviewed and applied to a task which demonstrates the ability of this algorithm to use distant contextual information. Some practical difficulties are discussed, especially with regard to the minimization process. Results on performance and computational requirements of several different 2nd-order minimization algorithms are presented for moving target problems.

Cholinesterase inhibitors for Parkinson's disease dementia

Background - The loss of cholinergic, dopaminergic and noradrenergic innervations seen in Parkinson's Disease Dementia (PDD) suggest a potential role for cholinesterase inhibitors. Concerns have been expressed about a theoretical worsening of Parkinson's disease related symptoms, particularly movement symptoms. Objectives - To assess the efficacy, safety, tolerability and health economic data relating to the use of cholinesterase inhibitors in PDD. Search methods - The trials were identified from the Specialized Register of the Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group on 19 April 2005 using the search term parkinson*. This register contains records from major health care databases and many ongoing trial databases and is updated regularly. Comprehensive searches of abstracts from major scientific meetings were performed. Pharmaceutical companies were approached for information regarding additional and ongoing studies. Selection criteria - Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled studies assessing the effectiveness of cholinesterase inhibitors in PDD. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were stated to limit bias. Data collection and analysis - Two reviewers (IM, CF) independently reviewed the quality of the studies utilizing criteria from the Cochrane Collaboration Handbook. Medications were examined separately and as a group. The outcome measures assessed were in the following domains: neuropsychiatric features, cognition, global impression, daily living activities, quality of life, burden on caregiver, Parkinsonian related symptoms, treatment acceptability as determined by withdrawal from trials, safety as determined by the frequency of adverse events, institutionalisation, death and health economic factors. Main results - A detailed and systematic search of relevant databases identified one published randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study (Emre 2004) involving 541 patients that compared rivastigmine with placebo. Rivastigmine produced statistically significant improvements in several outcome measures. On the primary cognitive measure, the ADAS-Cog, rivastigmine was associated with a 2.80 point ADAS-Cog improvement [WMD -2.80, 95% Cl -4.26 to -1.34, P = 0.0002] and a 2.50 point ADCS-ADL improvement [95% Cl 0.43 to 4.57, P = 0.02] relative to placebo. Clinically meaningful (moderate or marked) improvement occurred in 5.3% more patients on rivastigmine, and meaningful worsening occurred in 10.1% more patients on placebo. Tolerability appeared to be a significant issue. Significantly more patients on rivastigmine dropped out of the study due to adverse events [62/362 versus 14/179, OR 2.44, 95% Cl 1.32 to 4.48, P = 0.004]. Nausea [20/179 versus 105/362, OR 3.25, 95% Cl 1.94 to 5.45, P < 0.00001], tremor [7/179 versus 37/362, OR 2.80, 95% Cl 1.22 to 6.41, P = 0.01] and in particular vomiting [3/179 versus 60/362, OR 11.66, 95% Cl 3.60 to 37.72, P < 0.0001] were significantly more common with rivastigmine. However, significantly fewer patients died on rivastigmine than placebo [4/362 versus 7/179, OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.95, P = 0.04] Authors' conclusions - Rivastigmine appears to improve cognition and activities of daily living in patients with PDD. This results in clinically meaningful benefit in about 15% of cases. There is a need for more studies utilising pragmatic measures such as time to residential care facility and both patient and carer quality of life assessments. Future trials should involve other cholinesterase inhibitors, utilise tools to analyse the data that limit any bias and measure health economic factors. It is unlikely that relying solely on the last observation carried forward (LOCF) is sufficient. Publication of the observed case data in the largest trial would assist (Emre 2004). Adverse events were associated with the cholinergic activity of rivastigmine, but may limit patient acceptability as evidenced by the high drop out rate in the active arm.

UK social housing and housing market in England:a statistical review and trends

Around 80% of the 63 million people in the UK live in urban areas where demand for affordable housing is highest. Supply of new dwellings is a long way short of demand and with an average annual replacement rate of 0.5% more than 80% of the existing residential housing stock will still be in use by 2050. A high proportion of owner-occupiers, a weak private rental sector and lack of sustainable financing models render England’s housing market one of the least responsive in the developed world. As an exploratory research the purpose of this paper is to examine the provision of social housing in the United Kingdom with a particular focus on England, and to set out implications for housing associations delivering sustainable community development. The paper is based on an analysis of historical data series (Census data), current macro-economic data and population projections to 2033. The paper identifies a chronic undersupply of affordable housing in England which is likely to be exacerbated by demographic development, changes in household composition and reduced availability of finance to develop new homes. Based on the housing market trends analysed in this paper opportunities are identified for policy makers to remove barriers to the delivery of new affordable homes and for social housing providers to evolve their business models by taking a wider role in sustainable community development.

A study of stock market fluctuations and their relation to business conditions

Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubblelike deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the nonfundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.

The electoral geography of the Slovak Republic: A comparison of the 1994, 1998, and 2002 parliamentary elections

In what can rightly be said to be one of the most dramatic geopolitical shifts in modern times, the collapse of communist regimes in Central Europe and the former Soviet Union brought about dramatic changes in the entire region. As a consequence, wide ranging political, economic, and social transformations have occurred in almost all of these countries since 1989. The Slovak Republic, as a newly democratic country, went through the establishment of the electoral and party systems that are the central mechanisms to the formation of almost all modern democratic governments. The primary research purpose of this dissertation was to describe and explain regional variations in party support during Slovakia’s ten years of democratic transformation. A secondary purpose was to relate these spatial variations to the evolution of political parties in the post-independence period in light of the literature on transitional electoral systems. Research questions were analyzed using both aggregate and survey data. Specifically, the study utilized electoral data from 1994, 1998, and 2002 Slovak parliamentary elections and socio-economic data of the population within Slovak regions which were eventually correlated with the voting results by party in the 79 Slovak districts. The results of this study demonstrate that there is a tendency among voters in certain regions to provide continuous support to the same political parties/movements over time. In addition, the socio-economic characteristics of the Slovak population (gender, age, education, religion, nationality, unemployment, work force distribution, wages, urban-rural variable, and population density) in different regions tend to influence voting preferences in the parliamentary elections. Finally, there is an evident correlation between party preference and the party’s position on integration into European Union, as measured by perceived attitudes regarding the benefits of EU membership.

A Study of Stock Market Fluctuations and their Relations to Business Conditions

Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubble-like deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the non-fundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.

The Electoral Geography of the Slovak Republic: A Comparison of the 1994, 1998, and 2002 Parliamentary Elections

In what can rightly be said to be one of the most dramatic geopolitical shifts in modern times, the collapse of communist regimes in Central Europe and the former Soviet Union brought about dramatic changes in the entire region. As a consequence, wide ranging political, economic, and social transformations have occurred in almost all of these countries since 1989. The Slovak Republic, as a newly democratic country, went through the establishment of the electoral and party systems that are the central mechanisms to the formation of almost all modern democratic governments. The primary research purpose of this dissertation was to describe and explain regional variations in party support during Slovakia’s ten years of democratic transformation. A secondary purpose was to relate these spatial variations to the evolution of political parties in the post-independence period in light of the literature on transitional electoral systems. Research questions were analyzed using both aggregate and survey data. Specifically, the study utilized electoral data from 1994, 1998, and 2002 Slovak parliamentary elections and socio-economic data of the population within Slovak regions which were eventually correlated with the voting results by party in the 79 Slovak districts. The results of this study demonstrate that there is a tendency among voters in certain regions to provide continuous support to the same political parties/movements over time. In addition, the socio-economic characteristics of the Slovak population (gender, age, education, religion, nationality, unemployment, work force distribution, wages, urban-rural variable, and population density) in different regions tend to influence voting preferences in the parliamentary elections. Finally, there is an evident correlation between party preference and the party’s position on integration into European Union, as measured by perceived attitudes regarding the benefits of EU membership.

A "voz das ruas" e a rearticulação da ideologia conservadora

The aim of this paper is to analyze the street demonstrations occurred last June and July 2013, which appear as samples of the hegemonic fights in course in Brazil, during the so-called Big Wave of the social groups in conflict nowadays in the country. Among other questions, this study tries to explain how the varied stages of these fighting groups influenced their late ones. For that, it takes into consideration the bibliography available not only on these groups, but also on the social and political contemporary Brazil. That is why it evaluates political documents, as well as opinion pieces, news and others disseminated by the press or by political groups. Speeches made by political leaderships, as, for example, that one the President Dilma Roussef made on 21 July 2013, deserves close analysis. This also applies to contributions made by secondary data, poll institutions and IBGE’s socio-economic data. Categories and concepts of Antonio Gramsci’s political sociology are used here as theoretic bases. In fact, it favors the hypothesis that, during the dispute for the intellectual and moral command of demonstrations on July 2013, a certain middle-class conservative ideology emerged on scene. This group conquered the agreement of hegemonic mass media acting now as a political party, here designated as media party. These media resorted to platforms preexistent to the demonstration movements, especially their rejection to political organizations and programs in order to ascend as the demonstrations’ leaders along a certain period in which corruption appeared as the central theme of these efforts, while the government tried to get control of the situation. In view of the several forces and issues at stake, the present study contributes to the discussion about the current reality in Brazil and its perspectives, without losing sight of the centrality of the June Movements as political and ideological milestones

Measurement of the Ocean Economy From National Income Accounts to the Sustainable Blue Economy

The widespread efforts to incorporate the economic values of oceans into national income accounts have reached a stage where coordination of national efforts is desirable. A symposium held in 2015 began this process by bringing together representatives from ten countries. The symposium concluded that a definition of core ocean industries was possible but beyond that core the definition of ocean industries is in flux. Better coordination of ocean income accounts will require addressing issues of aggregation, geography, partial ocean industries, confidential, and imputation is also needed. Beyond the standard national income accounts, a need to incorporate environmental resource and ecosystem service values to gain a complete picture of the economic role of the oceans was identified. The U.N. System of Environmental and Economic Accounts and the Experimental Ecosystem Service Accounts provide frameworks for this expansion. This will require the development of physical accounts of environmental assets linked to the economic accounts as well as the adaptation of transaction and welfare based economic valuation methods to environmental resources and ecosystem services. The future development of ocean economic data is most likely to require cooperative efforts at development of metadata standards and the use of multiple platforms of opportunity created by policy analysis, economic development, and conservation projects to both collect new economic data and to sustain ocean economy data collection into the future by building capacity in economic data collection and use..

Análise do contributo das acessibilidades rodoviárias para o desenvolvimento regional: o caso da Nut II do Centro

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil na Área de Especialização em Vias de Comunicação e Transportes

Escolha profissional e o perfil dos acadêmicos de administração na modalidade a distância da FURG: um estudo comparativo

A atividade profissional é fundamental para a constituição do sujeito e reprodução da sociedade. Por outro lado, o processo de ensino-aprendizagem, na modalidade a distância, apresenta novos desafios e mudanças substanciais na maneira de se produzir conhecimento. Dessa forma, no presente estudo, analisaram-se dados socioeconômicos dos acadêmicos do curso de administração a distância da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande, com o intuito de traçar seu perfil, fazendo uma análise comparativa com os alunos da modalidade presencial. Trata-se de um estudo quantitativo, no qual se utilizou o tratamento estatístico na análise dos dados, obtidos de questionário e fontes secundárias. Os resultados demonstram que os acadêmicos da modalidade a distância possuem uma média de idade superior à dos alunos do presencial, sendo 63% são responsáveis pelo próprio sustento. Além disso, apenas 11% são oriundos de escolas particulares, ao passo que 25%, no presencial, provêm dessas instituições. Mais de 50%, por sua vez, são filhos de pais com grau de instrução inferior ao ensino fundamental e 31% afirmaram que o fizeram basicamente por ser um curso virtual, indicando que a educação à distância, além de oferecer a possibilidade de qualificação profissional às mais distantes regiões do país, beneficia um público que está entre as camadas mais necessitadas da população.

CÂNCER DE COLO UTERINO: CONHECIMENTO E COMPORTAMENTO DE MULHERES PARA PREVENÇÃO

Objetivo: Analisar o conhecimento das mulheres em relação à prevenção do câncer de colo de útero e os fatores dificultadores acerca da realização da prática do exame preventivo. Métodos: Trata-se de um estudo do tipo observacional, de corte transversal e descritivo, com 110 mulheres entre 25 e 64 anos, atendidas em uma unidade de saúde, entre os meses de janeiro e março de 2014. Coletaram-se dados sociodemográficos e econômicos, aspectos ginecológicos e comportamento sobre o exame. Analisaram-se os dados através da estatística descritiva, apresentando valores absolutos e relativos. Resultados: Dados referentes ao significado do câncer uterino mostraram que 65 (59,1%) desconheciam seu significado, 69 (62,7%) sabiam como preveni-lo, 104 (94,5%) já realizaram o Papanicolau, 59 (53,6%) realizaram o Papanicolau há 1 ano, 62 (56,4%) realizam o exame preventivo anualmente e 88 (80%) sabiam a importância dessa realização. Quanto aos fatores encontrados referentes à dificuldade na realização do exame preventivo, 49 (44,5%) relataram ser a vergonha o fator mais impactante. Conclusão: Apesar de a maioria das mulheres realizar o exame periodicamente, muitas desconhecem a sua verdadeira finalidade, sentindo-se envergonhadas e constrangidas durante a realização do exame.

Atividades de investigação mediadas pelas TICE : estudo das conceções, interações e discussões desenvolvidas por crianças e jovens dentro de um contexto de ensino de ciências ativo e colaborativo

A temática de discussão neste trabalho é o Ensino de Ciências através da Investigação (ENCI) [inquiry-based science education (IBSE)] que utilisa das Tecnologias de Informação e Comunicação (TIC) para o ensino de Ciências (TICEC). Deste modo, esta pesquisa tem o objetivo de identificar as conceções sobre a Natureza da Ciência e Tecnologia, além de compreender as interações, relações e discussões de crianças e jovens ao realizarem atividades de investigação através das TIC, dentro de um contexto de ensino de Ciências ativo e colaborativo. Organizamos esta investigação em três partes com diferentes estudos para alcançar este objetivo. A primeira parte apresenta estudos, a partir de uma revisão sistemática, de como se ensina e aprende Ciências utilizando as TICEC. Realizamos ainda uma revisão sobre o papel da argumentação no ensino de Ciências e elaboramos um instrumento para analizar a argumentação dos participantes numa atividade investigativa baseada em TICs. A segunda parte deste trabalho caracteriza a metodologia utilizada e os elementos da investigação: aspetos metodológicos (pesquisa qualitativa e estudo de caso), cenário (espaço não-formal de ensino de ciências ativo e colaborativo), sujeitos (crianças e jovens provenientes de um meio económico vulnerável), instrumentos de coleta de dados (questionário, filmagem de entrevistas, focus group e observações) e análise de dados (sistema de categorias). Também é apresentada a elaboração de uma atividade de investigação de ensino de Ciências (AIEC) mediada por recursos digitais, denominada de Módulo Temático Virtual (MTV). A terceira parte caracteriza-se pela apresentação dos resultados. No primeiro momento identificamos as conceções dos participantes sobre a Natureza da Ciência (Nature of Science – NOS), Natureza da Tecnologia (Nature of Technology - NOT) e o papel dos cientistas na sociedade. O último estudo vem caracterizar as interações, relações e discussões desenvolvidas pelos participantes quando realizam AIEC através das TICEC. Verificamos que dentro de um contexto ativo de ensino de Ciências e mediado pelas TIC, os participantes tendem a manifestar quatro aspetos ou domínios: social, técnico, afetivo e cognitivo. Os quatros domínios referidos caracterizam os processos que surgem durante o desenvolvimento de atividades científicas num cenário específico complementar à educação tradicional e são indicadores de como planear e analisar o ensino de Ciências quando se utiliza recurso digitais.

Análisis presupuestario del Ayuntamiento de Bilbao 2010-2013

En estos últimos años a raíz de la crisis económica que supuso una gran desaceleración económica, las entidades públicas han sufrido grandes cambios tanto en su situación económica como en la financiera teniendo que ajustar sus presupuestos. Este trabajo se basa en analizar la situación presupuestaria del Ayuntamiento de Bilbao en el periodo 2010-2013 mediante la recogida de datos económicos y analizando los presupuestos de gastos y de ingresos de dicha entidad. Para ello, se van a recoger los componentes del presupuesto: como se ha financiado (Clasificación Económica del Ingreso), la estrategia de actuación (Ejes Estratégicos), en que se ha utilizado el gasto (Clasificación Económica del Gasto) y para que se ha llevado a cabo (Clasificación Funcional del Gasto) y por ultimo quien ha ejecutado el gasto (Clasificación Orgánica). Además, se va a analizar la ejecución presupuestaria, el resultado presupuestario, el remanente de tesorería y la ejecución presupuestaria, así como otras variables presupuestarias.

Économie comportementale : retrouve-t-on un effet d’ancrage dans la LNH ?

De par leur nature scientifique, les sciences économiques visent, entre autre, à observer, qualifier, ainsi que quantifier des phénomènes économiques afin de pouvoir en dégager diverses prévisions. Ce mémoire se penche sur ces prévisions et, plus particulièrement, sur les facteurs pouvant biaiser les prévisionnistes au niveau comportemental en référant à l’effet d’ancrage, un biais propre à l’économie comportementale – une sous-discipline des sciences économiques. Il sera donc question de comprendre, par une analyse selon la discipline que représente l’économie comportementale, ce qui peut les affecter, avec un accent mis sur l’effet d’ancrage plus précisément. L’idée générale de ce dernier est qu’un agent peut être biaisé inconsciemment par la simple connaissance d’une valeur précédente lorsqu’il est demandé de faire une estimation ultérieure. De cette façon, une analyse des salaires des joueurs de la Ligne Nationale de Hockey (NHL) selon leurs performances passées et leurs caractéristiques personnelles, de 2007 à 2016, a été réalisée dans ce travail afin d’en dégager de possibles effets d’ancrage. Il est alors possible de constater que les directeurs généraux des équipes de la ligue agissent généralement de façon sensible et rationnelle lorsque vient le temps d’octroyer des contrats à des joueurs mais, néanmoins, une anomalie persiste lorsqu’on porte attention au rang auquel un joueur a été repêché. Dans un tel contexte, il semble pertinent de se référer à l’économie comportementale afin d’expliquer pourquoi le rang au repêchage reste une variable significative huit ans après l’entrée d’un joueur dans la NHL et qu’elle se comporte à l’inverse de ce que prévoit la théorie à ce sujet.