Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A study of chemically prepared small metal clusters in the nonmetallic regime

Small gold clusters [mean diameter (d)[less, similar] 1.4 nm], unlike larger clusters, show a higher Au(4f) binding energy relative to the bulk value and the presence of a conductance gap in tunnelling measurements, just as the molecular cluster compound, Au55(PPh3)12Cl6; small platinum clusters show similar nonmetallic features.

Constitutive modeling of ice in the high strain rate regime

The objective of the present work is to propose a constitutive model for ice by considering the influence of important parameters such as strain rate dependence and pressure sensitivity on the response of the material. In this regard, the constitutive model proposed by Carney et al. (2006) is considered as a starting basis and subsequently modified to incorporate the effect of brittle cracking within a continuum damage mechanics framework. The damage is taken to occur in the form of distributed cracking within the material during impact which is consistent with experimental observations. At the point of failure, the material is assumed to be fluid-like with deviatoric stress almost dropping down to zero. The constitutive model is implemented in a general purpose finite element code using an explicit formulation. Several single element tests under uniaxial tension and compression, as well as biaxial loading are conducted in order to understand the performance of the model. Few large size simulations are also performed to understand the capability of the model to predict brittle damage evolution in un-notched and notched three point bend specimens. The proposed model predicts lower strength under tensile loading as compared to compressive loading which is in tune with experimental observations. Further the model also asserts the strain rate dependency of the strength behavior under both compressive as well as tensile loading, which also corroborates well with experimental results. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Studies on BaO particles in nanosize regime

Barium oxide nanosize particles were prepared using the wet chemical route. Various capping agents were used to arrest the growth. X-ray diffraction studies reveal particle size as low as 9 Angstrom in diameter, which is close to the Bohr exciton radius of BaO. However, changes in the optical absorption features arising from the confinement effect in the nanosize regime were not observed. These results were confirmed by fluorescence measurements. The calculations based on effective mass approximations indicate that the quantum confinement effects are not significant for particle sizes as small as 15 Angstrom.

Synthesis of nonlinear controller to recover an unstable aircraft from poststall regime

Dynamics of the aircraft configuration considered in this paper show a unique characteristic in that there are no stable attractors in the entire high angle-of-attack flight envelope. As a result, once the aircraft has departed from the normal flight regime, no standard technique can be applied to recover the aircraft. In this paper, using feedback linearization technique, a nonlinear controller is designed at high angles of attack, which is engaged after the aircraft departs from normal flight regime. This controller stabilizes the aircraft into a stable spin. Then a set of synthetic pilot inputs is applied to cause an automatic transition from the spin equilibrium to low angles of attack where the second controller is connected. This controller is a normal gain-scheduled controller designed to have a large domain of attraction at low angles of attack. It traps the aircraft into a low angle-of-attack level flight. This entire concept of recovery has been verified using six-degrees-of-freedom nonlinear simulation. Feedback linearization technique used to design a controller ensures internal stability only if the nonlinear plant has stable zero dynamics. Because zero dynamics depend on the selection of outputs, a new method of choosing outputs is described to obtain a plant that has stable zero dynamics. Certain important aspects pertaining to the implementation of a feedback linearization-based controller are also discussed.

Experimental study and optimization of Plasma Actuators for Flow control in subsonic regime

Experimental study and optimization of Plasma Ac- tuators for Flow control in subsonic regime PRADEEP MOISE, JOSEPH MATHEW, KARTIK VENKATRAMAN, JOY THOMAS, Indian Institute of Science, FLOW CONTROL TEAM | The induced jet produced by a dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) setup is capable of preventing °ow separation on airfoils at high angles of attack. The ef-fect of various parameters on the velocity of this induced jet was studied experimentally. The glow discharge was created at atmospheric con-ditions by using a high voltage RF power supply. Flow visualization,photographic studies of the plasma, and hot-wire measurements on the induced jet were performed. The parametric investigation of the charac- teristics of the plasma show that the width of the plasma in the uniform glow discharge regime was an indication of the velocity induced. It was observed that the spanwise and streamwise overlap of the two electrodes,dielectric thickness, voltage and frequency of the applied voltage are the major parameters that govern the velocity and the extent of plasma.e®ect of the optimized con¯guration on the performance characteristics of an airfoil was studied experimentally.

Electrical properties of buckled multiwalled carbon nanotube arrays in the diffusive regime

We report the geometrical effect of graded buckled multiwalled carbon nanotube arrays on the electrical transport properties in the diffusive regime, via successive breakdown caused by the Joule heating. This breakdown occurs in the straighter region. Empirical relations involving the current-carrying ability, resistance, breakdown power, threshold voltage, diameter and length of carbon nanotube arrays are discussed on the basis of an extensive set of experimental data along with justification. The experimental results are corroborated by the density functional tight-binding calculations of electronic band structure. The band gap decreases as buckleness increases leading to the enhancement in the current-carrying ability and elucidating the role of buckleness in carbon nanotubes. Copyright (c) EPLA, 2012

Generation and analysis of drought stressed subtracted expressed sequence tags from safflower (Carthamus tinctorius L.)

Drought is the most crucial environmental factor that limits productivity of many crop plants. Exploring novel genes and gene combinations is of primary importance in plant drought tolerance research. Stress tolerant genotypes/species are known to express novel stress responsive genes with unique functional significance. Hence, identification and characterization of stress responsive genes from these tolerant species might be a reliable option to engineer the drought tolerance. Safflower has been found to be a relatively drought tolerant crop and thus, it has been the choice of study to characterize the genes expressed under drought stress. In the present study, we have evaluated differential drought tolerance of two cultivars of safflower namely, A1 and Nira using selective physiological marker traits and we have identified cultivar A1 as relatively drought tolerant. To identify the drought responsive genes, we have constructed a stress subtracted cDNA library from cultivar A1 following subtractive hybridization. Analysis of similar to 1,300 cDNA clones resulted in the identification of 667 unique drought responsive ESTs. Protein homology search revealed that 521 (78 %) out of 667 ESTs showed significant similarity to known sequences in the database and majority of them previously identified as drought stress-related genes and were found to be involved in a variety of cellular functions ranging from stress perception to cellular protection. Remaining 146 (22 %) ESTs were not homologous to known sequences in the database and therefore, they were considered to be unique and novel drought responsive genes of safflower. Since safflower is a stress-adapted oil-seed crop this observation has great relevance. In addition, to validate the differential expression of the identified genes, expression profiles of selected clones were analyzed using dot blot (reverse northern), and northern blot analysis. We showed that these clones were differentially expressed under different abiotic stress conditions. The implications of the analyzed genes in abiotic stress tolerance are discussed in our study.

Microstructure and texture evolution during sub-transus thermo-mechanical processing of Ti-6Al-4V-0.1B alloy: part II. static annealing in (alpha plus beta) regime

The first part of this study describes the evolution of microstructure and texture in Ti-6Al-4V-0.1B alloy during sub-transus rolling vis-A -vis the control alloy Ti-6Al-4V. In the second part, the static annealing response of the two alloys at self-same conditions is compared and the principal micromechanisms are analyzed. Faster globularization kinetics has been observed in the Ti-6Al-4V-0.1B alloy for equivalent annealing conditions. This is primarily attributed to the alpha colonies, which leads to easy boundary splitting via multiple slip activation in this alloy. The other mechanisms facilitating lamellar to equiaxed morphological transformations, e.g., termination migration and cylinderization, also start early in the boron-modified alloy due to small alpha colony size, small aspect ratio of the alpha lamellae, and the presence of TiB particles in the microstructure. Both the alloys exhibit weakening of basal fiber (ND||aOE (c) 0001 >) and strengthening of prism fiber (RD||aOE (c) aOE(a)) upon annealing. A close proximity between the orientations of fully globularized primary alpha and secondary alpha phases during alpha -> beta -> alpha transformation has accounted for such a texture modification.

Robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in time-delayed ecological models

Various ecological and other complex dynamical systems may exhibit abrupt regime shifts or critical transitions, wherein they reorganize from one stable state to another over relatively short time scales. Because of potential losses to ecosystem services, forecasting such unexpected shifts would be valuable. Using mathematical models of regime shifts, ecologists have proposed various early warning signals of imminent shifts. However, their generality and applicability to real ecosystems remain unclear because these mathematical models are considered too simplistic. Here, we investigate the robustness of recently proposed early warning signals of regime shifts in two well-studied ecological models, but with the inclusion of time-delayed processes. We find that the average variance may either increase or decrease prior to a regime shift and, thus, may not be a robust leading indicator in time-delayed ecological systems. In contrast, changing average skewness, increasing autocorrelation at short time lags, and reddening power spectra of time series of the ecological state variable all show trends consistent with those of models with no time delays. Our results provide insights into the robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in a broader class of ecological systems.

Assessing severe Drought and wet events over India in a future climate using a nested bias-correction approach

General circulation models (GCMs) are routinely used to simulate future climatic conditions. However, rainfall outputs from GCMs are highly uncertain in preserving temporal correlations, frequencies, and intensity distributions, which limits their direct application for downscaling and hydrological modeling studies. To address these limitations, raw outputs of GCMs or regional climate models are often bias corrected using past observations. In this paper, a methodology is presented for using a nested bias-correction approach to predict the frequencies and occurrences of severe droughts and wet conditions across India for a 48-year period (2050-2099) centered at 2075. Specifically, monthly time series of rainfall from 17 GCMs are used to draw conclusions for extreme events. An increasing trend in the frequencies of droughts and wet events is observed. The northern part of India and coastal regions show maximum increase in the frequency of wet events. Drought events are expected to increase in the west central, peninsular, and central northeast regions of India. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Characterizing drought using the reliability-resilience-vulnerability concept

This study borrows the measures developed for the operation of water resources systems as a means of characterizing droughts in a given region. It is argued that the common approach of assessing drought using a univariate measure (severity or reliability) is inadequate as decision makers need assessment of the other facets considered here. It is proposed that the joint distribution of reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (referred to as RRV in a reservoir operation context), assessed using soil moisture data over the study region, be used to characterize droughts. Use is made of copulas to quantify the joint distribution between these variables. As reliability and resilience vary in a nonlinear but almost deterministic way, the joint probability distribution of only resilience and vulnerability is modeled. Recognizing the negative association between the two variables, a Plackett copula is used to formulate the joint distribution. The developed drought index, referred to as the drought management index (DMI), is able to differentiate the drought proneness of a given area when compared to other areas. An assessment of the sensitivity of the DMI to the length of the data segments used in evaluation indicates relative stability is achieved if the data segments are 5years or longer. The proposed approach is illustrated with reference to the Malaprabha River basin in India, using four adjoining Climate Prediction Center grid cells of soil moisture data that cover an area of approximately 12,000 km(2). (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.