Macroeconomic shocks and the business cycle: evidence from a structural factor model

We use a dynamic factor model to provide a semi-structural representation for 101 quarterly US macroeconomic series. We find that (i) the US economy is well described by a number of structural shocks between two and six. Focusing on the four-shock specification, we identify, using sign restrictions, two non-policy shocks, demand and supply, and two policy shocks, monetary and fiscal. We obtain the following results. (ii) Both supply and demand shocks are important sources of fluctuations; supply prevails for GDP, while demand prevails for employment and inflation. (ii) Policy matters, Both monetary and fiscal policy shocks have sizeable effects on output and prices, with little evidence of crowding out; both monetary and fiscal authorities implement important systematic countercyclical policies reacting to demand shocks. (iii) Negative demand shocks have a large long-run positive effect on productivity, consistently with the Schumpeterian "cleansing" view of recessions.

Candidate quality in a Downsian Model with a continuous policy space

This paper characterizes a mixed strategy Nash equilibrium in a one-dimensional Downsian model of two-candidate elections with a continuous policy space, where candidates are office motivated and one candidate enjoys a non-policy advantage over the other candidate. We assume that voters have quadratic preferences over policies and that their ideal points are drawn from a uniform distribution over the unit interval. In our equilibrium the advantaged candidate chooses the expected median voter with probability one and the disadvantaged candidate uses a mixed strategy that is symmetric around it. We show that this equilibrium exists if the number of voters is large enough relative to the size of the advantage.

Misallocation of capital in a model of endogenous financial intermediation and insurance

In this paper we analyze productivity and welfare losses from capital misallocation in a general equilibrium model of occupational choice and endogenous financial intermediation. We study the effects of borrowing and lending, insurance, and risk sharing on the optimal allocation of resources. We find that financial markets together with general equilibrium effects have large impact on entrepreneurs' entry and firm-size decisions. Efficiency gains are increasing in the quality of financial markets, particularly in their ability to alleviate a financing constraint by providing insurance against idiosyncratic risk.

A simple model of aggregate pension expenditure

This paper develops a simple model that can be used to analyze the long-term sustainability of the contributive pension system and the steady-state response of pension expenditure to changes in some key demographic and economic variables, in the characteristics of the average pensioner and in the parameters that describe how pensions are calculated in Spain as a function of workers' Social Security contribution histories.

Reconstruction threshold for the hardcore model

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An approximate mathematical model for solidification of a flowing liquid in a microchannel

A mathematical model is developed to analyse the combined flow and solidification of a liquid in a small pipe or two-dimensional channel. In either case the problem reduces to solving a single equation for the position of the solidification front. Results show that for a large range of flow rates the closure time is approximately constant, and the value depends primarily on the wall temperature and channel width. However, the ice shape at closure will be very different for low and high fluxes. As the flow rate increases the closure time starts to depend on the flow rate until the closure time increases dramatically, subsequently the pipe will never close.

Potential isomorphism of elementary substructures of a strictly stable homogeneous model

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The non-absoluteness of model existence in uncountable cardinals for Lw1,w

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La integració de les energies renovables en un model energètic sostenible

La sostenibilitat del model energètic de Catalunya es veu condicionada per aspectes com la dependència energètica, la seguretat de subministrament, l’eficiència energètica, els impactes ambientals i la demanda creixent. D’altra banda, la incorporació d’energia renovable en el mix energètic implica una major autonomia energètica, seguretat de subministrament a llarg termini, i eficiència energètica, així com un menor impacte ambiental. Tanmateix, la contribució en el sistema elèctric d’un volum ja important i creixent d’energia renovable requereix una complexa tasca d’integració a nivell tècnic i econòmic. Per aconseguir-ho, és necessari desenvolupar una regulació estable que complementi el procés de liberalització del sector amb l’objectiu d’acomodar la generació renovable en un model energètic sostenible. La (in)formació i participació de la demanda es presenta com una condició clau per engegar el camí cap a una nova cultura energètica.

The β-Meixner model

We propose to approximate the Meixner model by a member of the B–family introduced in [Kuz10a]. The advantage of such approximations are the semi–explicit formulas for the running extrema under the B–family processes which enables us to produce more efficient algorithms for certain path dependent options.

A New open economy macroeconomic model with endogenous portfolio diversification and firms entry

This paper provides a new benchmark for the analysis of the international diversi…cation puzzle in a tractable new open economy macroeconomic model. Building on Cole and Obstfeld (1991) and Heathcote and Perri (2009), this model speci…es an equilibrium model of perfect risk sharing in incomplete markets, with endogenous portfolios and number of varieties. Equity home bias may not be a puzzle but a perfectly optimal allocation for hedging risk. In contrast to previous work, the model shows that: (i) optimal international portfolio diversi…cation is driven by home bias in capital goods, independently of home bias in consumption, and by the share of income accruing to labour. The model explains reasonably well the recent patterns of portfolio allocations in developed economies; and (ii) optimal portfolio shares are independent of market dynamics.

L’eficàcia rehabilitadora de la pena de treballs en benefici a la comunitat. Avaluació del model d’execució a la província de Barcelona

El present treball aspira a servir com primera aproximació a una avaluació del model actual d'execució de la pena de Treballs en Benefici de la Comunitat en el nostre actual sistema de penes, a partir de la valoració sobre la presència dels elements que la investigació criminològica ha destacat com a rellevants en matèria de rehabilitació amb penats condemnats a penes de treball comunitari. D’aquesta manera, hem optat per realitzar una investigació qualitativa mitjançant entrevistes a una mostra de penats que van finalitzar el compliment d'una pena de TBC a la província de Barcelona entre el mes d'octubre de 2008 i el de gener de 2009 per tal de conèixer la seva percepció sobre la presència d’aquests elements.

Macroeconomics of extensive margins: a simple model

How do monopolistically competitive industries react to shocks in the context of a New Keynesian macro model? I bridge macroeconomics and trade theory by considering market dynamics. I use an analytically tractable closed-economy model with endogenous entry of firms and show the implications of markets structure for the transmission of real shocks on aggregate variables and welfare. Shock sources become crucial for the results: traditional productivity shocks cause an extensive effect on production; shocks on innovation cause an intensive impact. More patient populations bring the economy to a richer market, although it cushions the extensive effect after an innovation shock.