Effect Of Different Hydrological Model Structures On The Assimilation Of Distributed Uncertain Observations

The reliable evaluation of the flood forecasting is a crucial problem for assessing flood risk and consequent damages. Different hydrological models (distributed, semi-distributed or lumped) have been proposed in order to deal with this issue. The choice of the proper model structure has been investigated by many authors and it is one of the main sources of uncertainty for a correct evaluation of the outflow hydrograph. In addition, the recent increasing of data availability makes possible to update hydrological models as response of real-time observations. For these reasons, the aim of this work it is to evaluate the effect of different structure of a semi-distributed hydrological model in the assimilation of distributed uncertain discharge observations. The study was applied to the Bacchiglione catchment, located in Italy. The first methodological step was to divide the basin in different sub-basins according to topographic characteristics. Secondly, two different structures of the semi-distributed hydrological model were implemented in order to estimate the outflow hydrograph. Then, synthetic observations of uncertain value of discharge were generated, as a function of the observed and simulated value of flow at the basin outlet, and assimilated in the semi-distributed models using a Kalman Filter. Finally, different spatial patterns of sensors location were assumed to update the model state as response of the uncertain discharge observations. The results of this work pointed out that, overall, the assimilation of uncertain observations can improve the hydrologic model performance. In particular, it was found that the model structure is an important factor, of difficult characterization, since can induce different forecasts in terms of outflow discharge. This study is partly supported by the FP7 EU Project WeSenseIt.

Analysis Of Semi-Distributed And Global Hydrological Models In The Central Tropical Basins Of The Gulf Of Mexico To The Effects Of Extreme Hydrometeorological Phenomena

In the last years extreme hydrometeorological phenomena have increased in number and intensity affecting the inhabitants of various regions, an example of these effects are the central basins of the Gulf of Mexico (CBGM) that they have been affected by 55.2% with floods and especially the state of Veracruz (1999-2013), leaving economic, social and environmental losses. Mexico currently lacks sufficient hydrological studies for the measurement of volumes in rivers, since is convenient to create a hydrological model (HM) suited to the quality and quantity of the geographic and climatic information that is reliable and affordable. Therefore this research compares the semi-distributed hydrological model (SHM) and the global hydrological model (GHM), with respect to the volumes of runoff and achieve to predict flood areas, furthermore, were analyzed extreme hydrometeorological phenomena in the CBGM, by modeling the Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) which is a SHM and the Modèle Hydrologique Simplifié à I'Extrême (MOHYSE) which is a GHM, to evaluate the results and compare which model is suitable for tropical conditions to propose public policies for integrated basins management and flood prevention. Thus it was determined the temporal and spatial framework of the analyzed basins according to hurricanes and floods. It were developed the SHM and GHM models, which were calibrated, validated and compared the results to identify the sensitivity to the real model. It was concluded that both models conform to tropical conditions of the CBGM, having MOHYSE further approximation to the real model. Worth mentioning that in Mexico there is not enough information, besides there are no records of MOHYSE use in Mexico, so it can be a useful tool for determining runoff volumes. Finally, with the SHM and the GHM were generated climate change scenarios to develop risk studies creating a risk map for urban planning, agro-hydrological and territorial organization.

Meteomap: Generation Of Meteorological Variables For Distributed Physically-Based Hydrological Modeling

Distributed energy and water balance models require time-series surfaces of the meteorological variables involved in hydrological processes. Most of the hydrological GIS-based models apply simple interpolation techniques to extrapolate the point scale values registered at weather stations at a watershed scale. In mountainous areas, where the monitoring network ineffectively covers the complex terrain heterogeneity, simple geostatistical methods for spatial interpolation are not always representative enough, and algorithms that explicitly or implicitly account for the features creating strong local gradients in the meteorological variables must be applied. Originally developed as a meteorological pre-processing tool for a complete hydrological model (WiMMed), MeteoMap has become an independent software. The individual interpolation algorithms used to approximate the spatial distribution of each meteorological variable were carefully selected taking into account both, the specific variable being mapped, and the common lack of input data from Mediterranean mountainous areas. They include corrections with height for both rainfall and temperature (Herrero et al., 2007), and topographic corrections for solar radiation (Aguilar et al., 2010). MeteoMap is a GIS-based freeware upon registration. Input data include weather station records and topographic data and the output consists of tables and maps of the meteorological variables at hourly, daily, predefined rainfall event duration or annual scales. It offers its own pre and post-processing tools, including video outlook, map printing and the possibility of exporting the maps to images or ASCII ArcGIS formats. This study presents the friendly user interface of the software and shows some case studies with applications to hydrological modeling.

Guiana dolphins (Sotalia guianensis) displaying beach hunting behavior in the Cananéia Estuary, Brazil: social context and conservation issues

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

THEORY OF NON-STEADY-STATE ELECTRICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF METAL-INSULATOR-METAL STRUCTURES WITH SCHOTTKY BARRIERS AND UNIFORMLY DISTRIBUTED INTERFACE IMPURITY STATES

The metal-insulator (or amorphous semiconductor) blocking contact is still not well understood. In the present paper, we discuss the non steady state characteristics of Metal-lnsulator-Metal Structure with non-intimate blocking contacts (i.e. Metal-Oxide-Insulator-Metal Structure). We consider a uniform distribution (in energy) of impurity states in addition to impurity states at a single energy level within the depletion region. We discuss thermal as well as isothermal characteristics and present expressions for the temperature of maximum current (T-m) and a method to calculate the density of uniformly distributed impurity states. The variation of mobility with electrical field has also been considered. Finally we plot the theoretical curves under different conditions. The present results are closing into available experimental results.

Mobilidade funcional em indivíduos com paralisia cerebral espástica

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Occupational mobility and income differentials: The experience of Brazil between 2002 and 2010

Since the start of the twenty-first century, the Brazilian economy has experienced a growth cycle with characteristics unlike those of its previous historical experience, combining growth, macroeconomic stability and distributive progress. In this context, the study aims to analyse the factors and distributive effects of occupational mobility in Brazil, based on data obtained from the Monthly Employment Survey. The results suggest that: (i) mobility has been used in Brazil as a way to raise wages, even when it involves a drop in socio-occupational status; (ii) nonetheless, the wage increase obtained by changing job or occupational segment is smaller for poorer workers than for wealthier ones; and (iii) consequently, mobility helps to increase income, but it also tends to widen wage gaps.

PB1908-27 Loss From Cornstalk Disease in Custer County, Nebraska, During the Winter of 1906-1907 (Distributed January 1908, Reprinted December 1930)

"Cornstalk disease" is the name given to the cause or causes of death of cattle allowed to run in fields of standing cornstalks from which the ears have been gathered. It is probable that "many different maladies have been included under this name." In Nebraska, however, there is such a similarity in the symptoms reported by the farmers that it seems probable that the great majority of the losses attributed to cornstalk disease are really due to some common cause. As to the exact nature of this cause nothing is known. However, various theories have been advanced, and methods of prevention or treatment based upon these theories have been described.

Hierarchy-Based Access Control in Distributed Environments

Access control is a fundamental concern in any system that manages resources, e.g., operating systems, file systems, databases and communications systems. The problem we address is how to specify, enforce, and implement access control in distributed environments. This problem occurs in many applications such as management of distributed project resources, e-newspaper and payTV subscription services. Starting from an access relation between users and resources, we derive a user hierarchy, a resource hierarchy, and a unified hierarchy. The unified hierarchy is then used to specify the access relation in a way that is compact and that allows efficient queries. It is also used in cryptographic schemes that enforce the access relation. We introduce three specific cryptography based hierarchical schemes, which can effectively enforce and implement access control and are designed for distributed environments because they do not need the presence of a central authority (except perhaps for set- UP).

Distributed Hybrid Agent Based Intrusion Detection and Real Time Response System

Wireless LANs are growing rapidly and security has always been a concern. We have implemented a hybrid system, which will not only detect active attacks like identity theft causing denial of service attacks, but will also detect the usage of access point discovery tools. The system responds in real time by sending out an alert to the network administrator.

Centralized vs. Distributed Connection Management Schemes under Different Traffic Patterns in Wavelength-Convertible Optical Networks

Centralized and Distributed methods are two connection management schemes in wavelength convertible optical networks. In the earlier work, the centralized scheme is said to have lower network blocking probability than the distributed one. Hence, much of the previous work in connection management has focused on the comparison of different algorithms in only distributed scheme or in only centralized scheme. However, we believe that the network blocking probability of these two connection management schemes depends, to a great extent, on the network traffic patterns and reservation times. Our simulation results reveal that the performance improvement (in terms of blocking probability) of centralized method over distributed method is inversely proportional to the ratio of average connection interarrival time to reservation time. After that ratio increases beyond a threshold, those two connection management schemes yield almost the same blocking probability under the same network load. In this paper, we review the working procedure of distributed and centralized schemes, discuss the tradeoff between them, compare these two methods under different network traffic patterns via simulation and give our conclusion based on the simulation data.

Nondetection Index of Anti-Islanding Passive Protection of Synchronous Distributed Generators

Synchronous distributed generators are prone to operate islanded after contingencies, which is usually not allowed due to safety and power-quality issues. Thus, there are several anti-islanding techniques; however, most of them present technical limitations so that they are likely to fail in certain situations. Therefore, it is important to quantify and determine whether the scheme under study is adequate or not. In this context, this paper proposes an index to evaluate the effectiveness of anti-islanding frequency-based relays commonly used to protect synchronous distributed generators. The method is based on the calculation of a numerical index that indicates the time period that the system is unprotected against islanding considering the global period of analysis. Although this index can precisely be calculated based on several electromagnetic transient simulations, a practical method is also proposed to calculate it directly from simple analytical formulas or lookup tables. The results have shown that the proposed approach can assist distribution engineers to assess and set anti-islanding protection schemes.

Inclusive business and poverty: prospects in the Brazilian context

Inclusive business is a term currently used to explain the organizations that aim to solve social problems with efficiency and financial sustainability by means of market mechanisms. It can be said that inclusive businesses are those targeted at generating employment and income for groups with little or no market mobility, in keeping with the standards of so-called "decent jobs" and in a self-sustaining manner, i.e., generating profit for the enterprises, and establishing relationships with typical business organizations as suppliers of products and services or in the distribution of this type of production. This article discusses the different concepts found in the scientific literature on inclusive businesses. It also analyses data from a survey conducted with the audiences of Social Corporate Responsibility seminars held by FIEMG. This analysis reveals that prospects, risks and idealizations similar to those found in inclusive business theories can also be found among individuals that run social corporate responsibility projects, even if this designation is new for them. The connection between companies and poverty, especially in relation to inclusive businesses, seems full of stumbling blocks and traps in the Brazilian context.

Dalla città alla casa, dalla casa alla città: la mutevole ricerca di un Piano per il ben-essere urbano

La ricerca si propone di definire le linee guida per la stesura di un Piano che si occupi di qualità della vita e di benessere. Il richiamo alla qualità e al benessere è positivamente innovativo, in quanto impone agli organi decisionali di sintonizzarsi con la soggettività attiva dei cittadini e, contemporaneamente, rende evidente la necessità di un approccio più ampio e trasversale al tema della città e di una più stretta relazione dei tecnici/esperti con i responsabili degli organismi politicoamministrativi. La ricerca vuole indagare i limiti dell’urbanistica moderna di fronte alla complessità di bisogni e di nuove necessità espresse dalle popolazioni urbane contemporanee. La domanda dei servizi è notevolmente cambiata rispetto a quella degli anni Sessanta, oltre che sul piano quantitativo anche e soprattutto sul piano qualitativo, a causa degli intervenuti cambiamenti sociali che hanno trasformato la città moderna non solo dal punto di vista strutturale ma anche dal punto di vista culturale: l’intermittenza della cittadinanza, per cui le città sono sempre più vissute e godute da cittadini del mondo (turisti e/o visitatori, temporaneamente presenti) e da cittadini diffusi (suburbani, provinciali, metropolitani); la radicale trasformazione della struttura familiare, per cui la famiglia-tipo costituita da una coppia con figli, solido riferimento per l’economia e la politica, è oggi minoritaria; l’irregolarità e flessibilità dei calendari, delle agende e dei ritmi di vita della popolazione attiva; la mobilità sociale, per cui gli individui hanno traiettorie di vita e pratiche quotidiane meno determinate dalle loro origini sociali di quanto avveniva nel passato; l’elevazione del livello di istruzione e quindi l’incremento della domanda di cultura; la crescita della popolazione anziana e la forte individualizzazione sociale hanno generato una domanda di città espressa dalla gente estremamente variegata ed eterogenea, frammentata e volatile, e per alcuni aspetti assolutamente nuova. Accanto a vecchie e consolidate richieste – la città efficiente, funzionale, produttiva, accessibile a tutti – sorgono nuove domande, ideali e bisogni che hanno come oggetto la bellezza, la varietà, la fruibilità, la sicurezza, la capacità di stupire e divertire, la sostenibilità, la ricerca di nuove identità, domande che esprimono il desiderio di vivere e di godere la città, di stare bene in città, domande che non possono essere più soddisfatte attraverso un’idea di welfare semplicemente basata sull’istruzione, la sanità, il sistema pensionistico e l’assistenza sociale. La città moderna ovvero l’idea moderna della città, organizzata solo sui concetti di ordine, regolarità, pulizia, uguaglianza e buon governo, è stata consegnata alla storia passata trasformandosi ora in qualcosa di assai diverso che facciamo fatica a rappresentare, a descrivere, a raccontare. La città contemporanea può essere rappresentata in molteplici modi, sia dal punto di vista urbanistico che dal punto di vista sociale: nella letteratura recente è evidente la difficoltà di definire e di racchiudere entro limiti certi l’oggetto “città” e la mancanza di un convincimento forte nell’interpretazione delle trasformazioni politiche, economiche e sociali che hanno investito la società e il mondo nel secolo scorso. La città contemporanea, al di là degli ambiti amministrativi, delle espansioni territoriali e degli assetti urbanistici, delle infrastrutture, della tecnologia, del funzionalismo e dei mercati globali, è anche luogo delle relazioni umane, rappresentazione dei rapporti tra gli individui e dello spazio urbano in cui queste relazioni si muovono. La città è sia concentrazione fisica di persone e di edifici, ma anche varietà di usi e di gruppi, densità di rapporti sociali; è il luogo in cui avvengono i processi di coesione o di esclusione sociale, luogo delle norme culturali che regolano i comportamenti, dell’identità che si esprime materialmente e simbolicamente nello spazio pubblico della vita cittadina. Per studiare la città contemporanea è necessario utilizzare un approccio nuovo, fatto di contaminazioni e saperi trasversali forniti da altre discipline, come la sociologia e le scienze umane, che pure contribuiscono a costruire l’immagine comunemente percepita della città e del territorio, del paesaggio e dell’ambiente. La rappresentazione del sociale urbano varia in base all’idea di cosa è, in un dato momento storico e in un dato contesto, una situazione di benessere delle persone. L’urbanistica moderna mirava al massimo benessere del singolo e della collettività e a modellarsi sulle “effettive necessità delle persone”: nei vecchi manuali di urbanistica compare come appendice al piano regolatore il “Piano dei servizi”, che comprende i servizi distribuiti sul territorio circostante, una sorta di “piano regolatore sociale”, per evitare quartieri separati per fasce di popolazione o per classi. Nella città contemporanea la globalizzazione, le nuove forme di marginalizzazione e di esclusione, l’avvento della cosiddetta “new economy”, la ridefinizione della base produttiva e del mercato del lavoro urbani sono espressione di una complessità sociale che può essere definita sulla base delle transazioni e gli scambi simbolici piuttosto che sui processi di industrializzazione e di modernizzazione verso cui era orientata la città storica, definita moderna. Tutto ciò costituisce quel complesso di questioni che attualmente viene definito “nuovo welfare”, in contrapposizione a quello essenzialmente basato sull’istruzione, sulla sanità, sul sistema pensionistico e sull’assistenza sociale. La ricerca ha quindi analizzato gli strumenti tradizionali della pianificazione e programmazione territoriale, nella loro dimensione operativa e istituzionale: la destinazione principale di tali strumenti consiste nella classificazione e nella sistemazione dei servizi e dei contenitori urbanistici. E’ chiaro, tuttavia, che per poter rispondere alla molteplice complessità di domande, bisogni e desideri espressi dalla società contemporanea le dotazioni effettive per “fare città” devono necessariamente superare i concetti di “standard” e di “zonizzazione”, che risultano essere troppo rigidi e quindi incapaci di adattarsi all’evoluzione di una domanda crescente di qualità e di servizi e allo stesso tempo inadeguati nella gestione del rapporto tra lo spazio domestico e lo spazio collettivo. In questo senso è rilevante il rapporto tra le tipologie abitative e la morfologia urbana e quindi anche l’ambiente intorno alla casa, che stabilisce il rapporto “dalla casa alla città”, perché è in questa dualità che si definisce il rapporto tra spazi privati e spazi pubblici e si contestualizzano i temi della strada, dei negozi, dei luoghi di incontro, degli accessi. Dopo la convergenza dalla scala urbana alla scala edilizia si passa quindi dalla scala edilizia a quella urbana, dal momento che il criterio del benessere attraversa le diverse scale dello spazio abitabile. Non solo, nei sistemi territoriali in cui si è raggiunto un benessere diffuso ed un alto livello di sviluppo economico è emersa la consapevolezza che il concetto stesso di benessere sia non più legato esclusivamente alla capacità di reddito collettiva e/o individuale: oggi la qualità della vita si misura in termini di qualità ambientale e sociale. Ecco dunque la necessità di uno strumento di conoscenza della città contemporanea, da allegare al Piano, in cui vengano definiti i criteri da osservare nella progettazione dello spazio urbano al fine di determinare la qualità e il benessere dell’ambiente costruito, inteso come benessere generalizzato, nel suo significato di “qualità dello star bene”. E’ evidente che per raggiungere tale livello di qualità e benessere è necessario provvedere al soddisfacimento da una parte degli aspetti macroscopici del funzionamento sociale e del tenore di vita attraverso gli indicatori di reddito, occupazione, povertà, criminalità, abitazione, istruzione, etc.; dall’altra dei bisogni primari, elementari e di base, e di quelli secondari, culturali e quindi mutevoli, trapassando dal welfare state allo star bene o well being personale, alla wellness in senso olistico, tutte espressioni di un desiderio di bellezza mentale e fisica e di un nuovo rapporto del corpo con l’ambiente, quindi manifestazione concreta di un’esigenza di ben-essere individuale e collettivo. Ed è questa esigenza, nuova e difficile, che crea la diffusa sensazione dell’inizio di una nuova stagione urbana, molto più di quanto facciano pensare le stesse modifiche fisiche della città.

Semantic-based middleware solutions to support context-aware service provisioning in pervasive environments

The dynamicity and heterogeneity that characterize pervasive environments raise new challenges in the design of mobile middleware. Pervasive environments are characterized by a significant degree of heterogeneity, variability, and dynamicity that conventional middleware solutions are not able to adequately manage. Originally designed for use in a relatively static context, such middleware systems tend to hide low-level details to provide applications with a transparent view on the underlying execution platform. In mobile environments, however, the context is extremely dynamic and cannot be managed by a priori assumptions. Novel middleware should therefore support mobile computing applications in the task of adapting their behavior to frequent changes in the execution context, that is, it should become context-aware. In particular, this thesis has identified the following key requirements for novel context-aware middleware that existing solutions do not fulfil yet. (i) Middleware solutions should support interoperability between possibly unknown entities by providing expressive representation models that allow to describe interacting entities, their operating conditions and the surrounding world, i.e., their context, according to an unambiguous semantics. (ii) Middleware solutions should support distributed applications in the task of reconfiguring and adapting their behavior/results to ongoing context changes. (iii) Context-aware middleware support should be deployed on heterogeneous devices under variable operating conditions, such as different user needs, application requirements, available connectivity and device computational capabilities, as well as changing environmental conditions. Our main claim is that the adoption of semantic metadata to represent context information and context-dependent adaptation strategies allows to build context-aware middleware suitable for all dynamically available portable devices. Semantic metadata provide powerful knowledge representation means to model even complex context information, and allow to perform automated reasoning to infer additional and/or more complex knowledge from available context data. In addition, we suggest that, by adopting proper configuration and deployment strategies, semantic support features can be provided to differentiated users and devices according to their specific needs and current context. This thesis has investigated novel design guidelines and implementation options for semantic-based context-aware middleware solutions targeted to pervasive environments. These guidelines have been applied to different application areas within pervasive computing that would particularly benefit from the exploitation of context. Common to all applications is the key role of context in enabling mobile users to personalize applications based on their needs and current situation. The main contributions of this thesis are (i) the definition of a metadata model to represent and reason about context, (ii) the definition of a model for the design and development of context-aware middleware based on semantic metadata, (iii) the design of three novel middleware architectures and the development of a prototypal implementation for each of these architectures, and (iv) the proposal of a viable approach to portability issues raised by the adoption of semantic support services in pervasive applications.